Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Puff’s Points, Wild Card

Five head coaches were fired on Monday in addition to the one
midseason firing we had. Other jobs remain in the balance.

An early Happy New Year to you all! Also, happy birthday to my mother!

It’s not quite 2014 yet, but the 2013 regular season is over and it’s time for the playoffs to begin.

I will spend the next two days previewing and predicting each wild card game. But before I do that, I would like to give you this week’s list of things you should know, as well as my current power rankings (based on my own mathematical equation) of the 12 teams still standings.

Let’s get to it!

1. New Faces

Nearly half of this year’s playoff participants are new since last year. In the AFC, San Diego and Kansas City are making their first appearances since 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Half of the NFC participants were not in last year’s tournament. The Saints missed the playoffs last year following three straight trips. Philadelphia last appeared when they won the NFC East in 2010. It’s been a little longer for the Panthers as their last trip came in 2008 when they won the NFC South with a 12-4 record and then went one-and-done, losing to Arizona in the divisional round.

2. AFC West

Denver, Kansas City and San Diego have all earned spots in this year’s playoffs. This marks the fourth time in the past decade that a single division has taken both wild card spots in their conference’s bracket. The AFC North did it in 2011, the AFC South did it in 2007 and the NFC East did it in 2006.

Fun fact, of the four divisions that have done it in the past 10 years, only the 2011 AFC South had three teams with at least 10 wins (the Colts had 13, the Jaguars had 11 and the Titans had 10).

3. Third’s Not the Charm

This is the second year in a row that a team has won 10 games but finished third in their division and missed the playoffs. The Chicago Bears did it last year and the Arizona Cardinals suffered the same fate this season. It’s one of the few arguments for expanding the playoffs by one team per conference.

4. Black Monday

Several head coaches got the axe on Monday. More may come over the next week or so. Those given their papers on the first day of their teams’ offseasons were:

Rob Chudzinski in Cleveland
Mike Shanahan in Washington
Leslie Frazier in Minnesota
Greg Schiano in Tampa Bay
Jim Schwartz in Detroit

Remember that Houston fired Gary Kubiak midseason and Wade Phillips took over. We’ll be looking to see what happens with him and also with Mike Munchak in Tennessee.

5. Tomlin Takes the High Road

Mike Tomlin could have bitched and moaned about the officiating error in San Diego that allowed the Chargers to take Kansas City into overtime and eventually beat them, eliminating the Steelers from the playoffs.

Instead, he chose to take a different path. Though he does feel that officiating is something that should be high on the NFL’s offseason agenda, namely working a deal to make at least some of them full-time NFL employees, he put the blame on himself and his team.

Pittsburgh started the season 0-4. The fact that they pulled their record to 8-8 and came just a tiebreaker away from the playoffs was incredible. But when you dig that deep a hole for yourself, it’s hard to get upset over one officiating mistake.

6. 2014 Regular Season

Though the week-by-week schedule has not been released, we now know which teams will play each other and where each game will be played for next season.

Peyton Manning will get to host his old team next year but will have to travel to Foxboro to see Tom Brady like he did this season. Brady will have a tough road matchup of his own, though, as his Patriots will visit Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau.

Focusing on our local teams, let’s look at Washington first. The Redskins will face the NFC West and AFC South. They’ll be hosting the Rams, Seahawks, Jaguars and Titans and visiting the Cardinals, 49ers, Texans and Colts. They will also host the Buccaneers and visit the Vikings, based on their places in their respective divisions.

The Ravens will get the AFC South and the NFC South next year. They will host the Jaguars, Titans, Falcons and Panthers and will visit the Texans, Colts, Saints and Bucs. Did any of you notice that their AFC South home and away schedule is the same as Washington’s? They’re other conference games will be at Miami and at home against San Diego.

7. Pro Bowl

Most of you by now are aware that this year’s Pro Bowl will not feature an AFC team playing against an NFC team. Instead, the players with the most votes by position, regardless of conference, are placed into a pool and will be drafted to two teams, led by Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders.

As an example of the players being picked regardless of conference, of the six running backs that will be placed in the pool Jamaal Charles is the only one from an AFC team.

The teams with the most players voted to the Pro Bowl are:

San Francisco – 9 players (4 offensive, 5 defensive)
Kansas City – 8 players (2 offensive, 5 defensive, 1 special teams)
Seattle – 6 players (3 offensive, 3 defensive)
Carolina – 5 players (3 offensive, 2 defensive)
Cleveland – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 defensive)
Denver – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 special teams)
New Orleans – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 defensive)

For our local teams, the Ravens will have four players in the Pro Bowl. Marshal Yanda made it on the offensive line, Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs made it on defense, and Justin Tucker will be one of the kickers. The only Redskin voted into the Pro Bowl is offensive tackle Trent Williams.

8. Injury Report

Official injury reports have not yet been released for the upcoming weekend. Don’t be surprised if most teams don’t make their public until Friday. But we do know the status of a few key players going into Saturday and Sunday.

Clay Mathews will not be active for Green Bay’s game against San Francisco on Sunday. With Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb both healthy, though, the Packers should still be able to put together a solid game and maybe even pull off an upset against the 49ers, who are currently favored by 2.5 points.

Terence Newman and Tyler Eifert were both inactive for Cincinnati on Sunday but are listed as questionable for their Sunday matchup with San Diego.

Kansas City lists Tamba Hali as questionable. If he can play alongside Justin Houston, don’t be so sure that Indy will pull off the same result of their meeting in Houston in Week 16.

Looking ahead to the divisional round, Wes Welker has been cleared to practice for Denver after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago and Percy Harvin (hip) will practice this week and Seattle hopes to have him available next week.

9. Preseason Predictions

Below are my predictions from before the preseason began of who would make this year’s playoffs. Correct picks are in bold (didn’t necessarily get the seeding right for those teams):

AFC

1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Houston Texans
5. Miami Dolphins
6. Kansas City Chiefs

NFC

1. Chicago Bears
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Washington Redskins
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Green Bay Packers

10. Power Rankings

Below is my list of power rankings, only taking the 12 playoff teams into consideration. Keep in mind that these do not take into account teams’ performances at home versus on the road. These consider the twelve teams’ entire seasons compared just to each other in several statistical categories.

1. SEA (2.287)
5. NO (3.397)
9. PHI (4.859)
2. CIN (2.524)
6. SF (3.792)
10. IND (5.014)
3. DEN (2.748)
7. NE (4.006)
11. SD (5.324)
4. CAR (3.256)
8. KC (4.532)
12. GB (5.446)

We’ll see how these rankings stand up this postseason. The way I would read it is that a higher ranked team should beat a lower ranked team when the higher ranked team is at home. For example, Denver should beat New England in Denver. But if the lower ranked team is at home, like when San Francisco plays at Green Bay this weekend, this may be less likely to correctly predict the winning team.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Sunday Football Afterword: Cowboys vs Eagles

Bryce Brown had just two touches, but one went for Philadelphia's
last touchdown, the game-winner against Dallas to send Philly to the playoffs.

Cory Puffett

Different quarterback, same result. The Dallas Cowboys have played in three straight Week 17. They have lost all three and have finished each season 8-8.

Kyle Orton started Sunday night’s game after Tony Romo had back surgery earlier in the week. Orton turned in an admirable performance, all told. He completed 30 of 46 passes for 358 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. He hit DeMarco Murray on a lot of check down passes early in the game to get into a rhythm.

Orton came up big late in the game when he found Dez Bryant on a 4th down touchdown pass, but failed to convert on the ensuing two-point conversion when he tried to go back to Bryant.

Nick Foles may crash and burn in future seasons, but he has been amazing this year. He finishes the regular season with 27 touchdown passes and just two interceptions while going 8-2 in ten starts.

Chip Kelly led the Eagles to a 10-6 season in his first year as a head coach in the NFL. His “gimmick” offense finishes the season ranked in the top 10 in both rushing and passing. The defense struggled this season. It was ranked 30th against the pass and barely in the top 15 against the run, but that could be in part because the offense ranked dead last in time of possession. The Eagles averaged 1:15 less possession time than the next worst team in that statistical category.

Philadelphia’s defense struggles don’t matter, though, as they won in Dallas to hand the Cowboy’s their only division loss of the season. Foles had a passer rating of 124.4 and LeSean McCoy gained 131 yards on 27 carries. He set the Eagles’ single-season rushing yards record as well as the team’s single-season yards-from-scrimmage record.

McCoy caught the first touchdown pass of the game early in the second quarter. Brent Celek caught Foles’s second scoring throw late in the second quarter and led the team in receiving yards with 71.

The Eagles will host the New Orleans Saints on Wild Card Saturday, January 4 at 8:10 p.m. The game will be shown on NBC. Look for my preview of that game later this week.

The 2013 regular season is now over. Enjoy the playoffs! I know I will.

Final Score:
Philadelphia Eagles – 24
Dallas Cowboys – 22

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Puff's Take, Week 17

Five teams ended their seasons in victory and so have something small to hang their hats on as their offseasons have begun.

For the playoffs teams, though, only the Kansas City Chiefs couldn't move up or down in playoff seeding entering today, so 12 of the 15 early games on Sunday had some sort of playoff significance, whether it be division titles or playoff seeding.


Thanks for joining me this season. I look forward to providing more coverage to you all this postseason. Next week is wild-card weekend and I will be spending the coming week doing analysis of the eight participating teams and then previewing and predicting the game.

Enjoy Sunday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles! Also, follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

Sunday Football Afterword: Bears vs Packers

Jordy Nelson certainly enjoyed having Rodgers back and the defense
having to look out for Cobb again, too. The receiver had 10 grabs for 161 yards.

Cory Puffett

We could not have asked for a more exciting NFC North Championship game on the final Sunday of the 2013 regular season. The Packers and Bears fought tooth and nail to the final gun.

Each quarter was ‘won’ by a different team. The Bears took the first and third quarters while the Packers took the second and fourth.

Aaron Rodgers had missed seven games after being injured early in Green Bay’s November 4 meeting with Chicago. He injured his collarbone in that game and the Packers went on to lose 27-20.

Randall Cobb also returned after missing most of the season on the Injured Reserve-designated to return list.

Rodgers, like Cutler a few weeks ago in his return, started rusty. But he finished with a solid game, throwing for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns. Cobb had just two receptions but they went for 55 yards and two touchdowns. How about that?

Green Bay also had a nice game on the ground as James Starks and Eddie Lacy combined for 121 yards on 32 carries. Lacy had a touchdown run on an impressive cutback and Rodgers did a little dirty work delivering a block to help Lacy get the edge.

Jarrett Boykin also had a touchdown for Green Bay when he recovered an Aaron Rodgers fumble and ran it in for the touchdown.

Chicago struggled in the final stretch of this season. After a narrow overtime win against Baltimore in mid-November, the Bears went just 2-4 in their final six games.

Green Bay battled through a quarterback carousel after Rodgers went down against Chicago, going 0-4-1 in a five-game stretch that included that game against the Bears. But once they brought back matt Flynn, the Packers were able to keep their season afloat, winning two of three games before Rodgers was able to return and deliver Green Bay a playoff birth.

With both Rodgers and Cobb back, and a home game next week, Green Bay is definitely a dangerous team this postseason. For Chicago, after Josh McCown did such a great job in place of Jay Cutler, their fans have to be frustrated. It will be interesting to see what they decide to do at the quarterback position this offseason with McCown planning to retire.

Final Score:
Green Bay Packers – 33
Chicago Bears – 28

Sunday Football Afterword: Bengals vs Ravens

Andy Dalton had a rough game, but he set franchise records for
passing yards and touchdowns this season while helping lead
Cincinnati to a third playoff birth in his three NFL seasons.

Cory Puffett

After five straight playoff appearances, the Ravens follow in the footsteps of the 2006 and 2009 Steelers and last year’s Giants as recent Super Bowl championship to miss the following postseason.

Baltimore had a chance to clinch a playoff birth on Sunday with a win and either a Miami or San Diego loss. They also could have made the playoffs with a loss in Cincinnati but that would require too much help.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, who started the season 0-4, finish 2nd in the AFC North, just ahead of the Ravens who fell to third with their loss.

A relatively high scoring game, Sunday’s AFC North matchup was sloppy. Neither team lost a fumble, but there were seven total turnovers. Andy Dalton threw four interceptions and Joe Flacco threw three. One of Flacco’s was returned for a touchdown.

Dalton’s first three picks turned into field goals for Baltimore. The fourth was answered with Flacco’s second interception of the game. Flacco’s third was returned for a clinching touchdown.

Cincinnati will finish no lower than third in playoff seeding and could clinch a first round bye if New England loses to Buffalo in their late-afternoon game.

Baltimore’s defense did everything it could to keep their offense in the game and helped take a 17-17, tie game into the fourth quarter. But when your running backs average just 3.4 yards per carry and your quarterback averages just 3.8 yards per attempt (6.4 per completion), you’re bound to let it slip down the stretch.

The Bengals scored at least 34 points in six of eight home games this season, despite never scoring more than 27 on the road, and finish the season undefeated at Paul Brown stadium.

Final Score:
Baltimore Ravens – 17
Cincinnati Bengals – 34