Thursday, January 30, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview: Broncos vs Seahawks


Cory Puffett

Yesterday I talked about which team was better in eight individual offensive, defensive and special teams units. But the Denver and Seattle offensive lines will not line up opposite each other, nor will Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning be trying to stop each other.

So while I had fun doing so, and hopefully you all enjoyed reading yesterday’s post, I know that those “matchups” I discussed yesterday will have no bearing on Sunday’s game.

So today I am looking at Seattle’s offense versus Denver’s defense, Denver’s offense against Seattle’s defense, and how the two teams’ special teams will match up with each other.

Denver Offense vs. Seattle Defense

This is the matchup that has been getting the most attention in the media this week. Denver set an NFL record for points scored in a single season and is second on the all-time list in points per game for a single season.

Seattle’s defense isn’t the best off all time, but it was easily the best this season in both yards and points allowed.

For the first week and a half of Super Bowl coverage, the main focus has been Peyton Manning versus Seattle’s secondary.

Manning, on average, passed the ball less than 2.5 seconds after the snap this season. His passes to Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas on quick slants and screen passes left his hand within 1.75 seconds of the snap. That isn’t enough time to get pressure on him.

When Manning gets to the line of scrimmage he does more than change protections and routes. He looks at the defense and decides what his progression will be through his receivers based on the look the defense gives him. He tends to throw to one of his first two reads, which is why he gets the ball out so quickly.

Seattle’s secondary has to give him different looks and mask their coverage pre-snap to get Manning looking to his third and fourth reads, which will give the defensive line enough time to either sack him or disrupt him enough that he doesn’t throw accurate passes or, maybe, so he makes bad decisions.

We know Seattle’s defensive backs like to play physical. But Manning’s understanding of that will allow him to call for routes that will prevent those defensive backs from disrupting his receivers the way they want to. Because of this, Seattle may want to try a little more zone defense than what they usually do. It’s a tough call; you don’t want to get away from what got you to the Super Bowl. But when you face a chess master like Manning, sometimes a little wrinkle is enough to throw him off.

The other part of this matchup involved Denver’s rushing offense. I think Seattle has a definitive edge here, but it all relies on how well they do in pass coverage. If Manning gets into a rhythm too early, Seattle’s linebackers will have to drop back more to defend the pass. The Seahawks have a very good defensive line, but Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball have enough moves to get past them if the linebackers aren’t there filling the gaps.

The good news for Denver is that the forecast for Sunday is looking better and better in terms of precipitation. There is no getting past the temperature. It is New York in early February and it is a night game. But at least the chance for snow and/or rain seems to be decreasing. This is also good for the fans. We want to see how Manning matches up against those defensive backs, especially if he decides to test Richard Sherman.

Seattle’s Offense vs. Denver’s Defense

This matchup has flown under the radar, but I am very excited to see these two squads on the field opposite each other. From watching Denver’s defense this year, they play looser coverage, allowing underneath passes. But they don’t let much get passed them.

Denver also does a fantastic job in containment. Even though Russell Wilson will find his way out of the pocket when it breaks down, he won’t likely find much running room to take off down field. That’s the strength of Denver’s linebackers.

At the same time, remember that Wilson doesn’t typically look to run first. As he runs outside of the pocket, his eyes are downfield until the moment he crosses the line of scrimmage. But I don’t expect him to throw very many 50/50 balls in this game

Jermaine Kearse and, to some extent, Golden Tate love 50/50 balls. Both have great hands and great body control and an innate ability to track the ball in the air. Doug Baldwin has a lot of the same skills but he does more damage along the sidelines.

But guys like Champ Bailey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Duke Ihenacho are not going to give up much position in this game. As Wilson scrambles out of the pocket, his receivers’ best options will be to come back toward the line of scrimmage. They will get their yards but Denver will prevent the big plays downfield.

The biggest issue Denver will have will be stopping Marshawn Lynch. They have some great defensive linemen, but what Seattle’s offensive line lacks in pass protection, it more than makes up for in run blocking. Wesley Woodyard is a very good run stopping linebacker, but Danny Trevathan is a little better in pass protection than he is stopping the run.

More than that, none of these guys have had to tackle someone like Marshawn Lynch this year. They did a great job against Ryan Mathews in the divisional round and against LeGarrette Blount in the AFC Championship. Lynch is a different animal. There’s a reason we call him Beast Mode.

Denver’s Special Teams vs. Seattle Special Teams

Seattle has one of the best special teams units in the league. Jon Ryan does not allow many punt returns. And those that do try to return his punts are in for a hard hit soon after the catch the ball.

On the other end, Golden Tate is a returner who is both shifty and explosive. My guess is that Percy Harvin will handle kickoff returns in this game, but Tate will be in for punt returns and neither is easy to take down. They are faster than you expect and defenders will have to be generous with their angles or they’ll end up way behind the play.

Denver is unimpressive on special teams. They aren’t bad, but they also aren’t great. Britton Colquitt is a very good punter, but he doesn’t have the hang time of Jon Ryan and his coverage unit isn’t as good as Seattle’s, either.

Trindon Holliday is explosive, but he is inconsistent as a returner. Wes Welker has been known to bobble a punt in crucial situations and doesn’t have the shiftiness in the open field that you would want from a punt returner, anyway.

If this game comes down to special teams, look out Denver.



I will publish my official predictions for Super Bowl XLVIII either tomorrow or, more likely, on Saturday. I believe my Football Freaks co-hosts will also contribute prediction blog posts over the next two days. So, until then, thanks for reading my Super Bowl coverage this year and enjoy the big game!

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII: Comparing Teams


Tomorrow I will preview the Super Bowl matchup and on Friday I will make my official prediction, as will my Football Freaks co-hosts.

Today I want to begin my preview process by taking what I know from scouting the two teams last week and comparing each team’s individual units to each other.

I did this with last year’s Super Bowl matchup between Baltimore and San Francisco and got a lot of feedback. And so now I’m back at it with this year’s Broncos and Seahawks.

Quarterbacks

All discussion surrounding these teams tends to begin with the individuals starting at quarterback, so let’s go ahead and knock that out here.

Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks in the game. He makes quick pre-snap decisions to change plays and put his playmakers in the best position to help his team gain yards on every play. He also makes quick decisions after the snap, giving the defense little time to break down his pocket and the secondary little room for error in their coverage of his receivers.

Russell Wilson does not have the experience Manning has. Wilson is the sixth quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to the Super Bowl in his first two seasons. He lacks the quick decision making that Manning has, and he also lacks height. But Wilson is one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the game. He has a sixth sense about him that allows him to keep his eyes downfield even as he scrambles from a broken pocket on almost every play.

In a game like this, though, I think experience is just a little more important than talent. And it isn’t like Manning is completely devoid of talent anyway.

Edge: Broncos

Running Backs

I love what Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball have done this year for Denver. Both are great runners and allow Denver to switch off players to always have fresh legs on the field. They root for each other during games, too, which is important. Ronnie Hillman is also a very good runner but his fumbling problems will likely keep him out of this game as they have through the second half of this season.

Marshawn Lynch is the main guy for Seattle, and he is very capable. He is one of the best running backs in the league right now, and he has been almost since he first arrived in Seattle. And there shouldn’t be any worry about him wearing down during the game. He rarely does, and even when Seattle does want fresh legs out there, Robert Turbin is no slouch.

Edge: Seahawks

Receivers

This is not as cut and dry as one might assume. I love Denver’s receivers. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are four of the best receivers in the NFL right now, especially with Manning at the helm. And then you have guys like Andre Caldwell, Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme who can be plugged into the offense at any given time and respond well. The strength of the Broncos receiving corps is not just its strength at the top; it’s the depth it boasts.

But I also really like Seattle’s receivers. Golden Tate irritates me with his tendency to showboat, but he is a very good receiver with some of the best hands in the NFL. His height often leads to offensive pass interference calls when he goes up for a big catch, but he doesn’t always get called even though he always finds a way to come down with the ball. Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin are two of the most underrated receivers in the league. Kearse doesn’t drop passes and Baldwin is one of the best sideline receivers in the game right now. Remember Mario Manningham’s amazing sideline catch in Super Bowl XLVI? Baldwin has made at least three of those this season.

Seattle also has Percy Harvin and Ricardo Lockette, but with their level of involvement this weekend in question, Seattle doesn’t come that close to matching Denver’s depth at this position.

Edge: Broncos

Offensive Line

This is a difficult one to dissect. Seattle’s offensive line is very good in run blocking, but it was probably the worst pass blocking line in football this season. Denver’s line is very good in pass protection, made better by Manning’s quick release on most plays, and respectable in run blocking. But it does often fatigue late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter.

I watched every snap of every game Denver and Seattle played this regular season and postseason. Rarely did Seattle run a pass play where Russell Wilson didn’t have to scramble from the pocket. Now, it is a very difficult job to establish a pocket that a short player can see and throw from. But often the pocket is gone within two seconds of the ball being snapped.

Denver’s offensive line does not have the same problem. The only thing that concerns me about their offensive line in pass protection is that when it breaks down late in the game, it tends to collapse on the left side of the line, which is Manning’s blind side. In run protection, Denver runs a lot out of the shotgun, which means that they run block much like they pass block. They do a good enough job of it, but the problem is that if the linebackers cheat up to play the run, they will plug up Denver’s running lanes.

When Seattle blocks for Marshawn Lynch, they plow ahead and deal off a wall, making it difficult for defenders to get a hand on Lynch before he crosses the line of scrimmage. And of course we all know what Lynch can do once he gets a head of steam.

Edge: Tie

Defensive Line

 Both teams run a 4-3 defense, which makes it a little easier to compare the teams. I love Terrance Knighton and Shaun Phillips on Denver’s defensive line, and Robert Ayers is also very good. But the left side of that line is a little weaker. Nothing against Malik Jackson and Sylvester Williams, but Seattle will have a lot more success running to that side of the line.

Seattle’s defensive line is just better, and it’s deeper. Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Brandon Mebane and Tony McDaniel are the starters and then you have guys like Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril backing them up. This might be the best defensive line in all of football. They are very good in run stopping and they got pressure on opposing quarterbacks all season.

A big story line of this Sunday’s game will be whether Peyton can get the ball out quickly enough to beat Seattle’s pass rush.

Edge: Seahawks

Linebackers

Again, I really like Denver’s linebackers. Wesley Woodyard is a tackling machine and Danny Trevathan has overcome a nationally televised blunder in the regular season opener against Baltimore to become a leader on that defense. They are great against the rush and they are very good against the pass. And hey, Nate Irving is pretty damn good, too.

But it’s hard to call them better than Seattle’s linebackers. Bruce Irvin is very good and Bobby Wagner is severely underrated as a middle linebacker. He’s the best coverage linebacker in this game, and he’ll make an impact against the run, too. I think Denver has a little more depth at linebacker, but this position isn’t all about depth.

Edge: Tie

Secondary

Champ Bailey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Duke Ihenacho, Mike Adams, Tony Carter, and Quentin Jammer… that just sounds like an all-star secondary. And it is. They struggled to find an identity early in the season, but they have gotten better every week and have really had a solid postseason so far.

But then you throw out Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and Byron Maxwell. These guys never had to search for an identity. They are the “Legion of Boom.” They have been since the season started. And don’t worry about depth; Jeremy Lane and Parish Cox are perfectly capable backup corners if they are called on.

Edge: Seahawks

Special Teams

This one is a no brainer. In the punting game, Seattle leads by a mile. Jon Ryan punted 74 times this season and only 21 of them were returned. On those 21 returns, opponents gained less than four yards per return and only about five yards per game. Golden Tate handled returns all year for Seattle and averaged 11.5 yards per return. Their blocking is great and his elusiveness is greater.

Denver simply doesn’t have that on punt returns. Trindon Holliday is a good returner, but he doesn’t always make great decisions. As for Wes Welker, he doesn’t have the speed of Tate. And Britton Colquitt is a very good punter, but he didn’t have the same success in avoiding returns that Jon Ryan did this year.

Now, in the kick return factory, you would probably say that Denver has the edge. They certainly did in the regular season on both sides of the ball. But Percy Harvin was out most of the season. In his first action, he returned a kickoff against the Minnesota Vikings. It was his only kick return of the season and it went for 58 yards, Seattle’s longest of the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fielding kicks on Sunday.

Edge: Seahawks



Total: Seattle 4, Denver 2, Tie 2

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

2013 NFL Awards


Cory Puffett

Super Bowl week is upon us and I’m very excited to begin my own coverage of the big game and the events surrounding it. I’d like to start today with the event that will be held the evening before the big game. Alec Baldwin will host the third annual NFL Honors, where the biggest regular season awards will be given out.

Before we get to Saturday, I would like to offer my two cents on who the biggest awards of the season should go to.

Most Valuable Player

Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

This is open and shut. Nobody came close to matching his level of production this season. In fact, I can count on two hands the number of people who have come close to his production level in the history of the league.

Manning threw for 55 touchdowns and bested Drew Brees’ single-season passing yards record by one yard this season. He led Denver to 13 wins and the number one seed in the AFC, and his play has remained at a high level this postseason. He was the NFL’s most valuable player this season.

Coach of the Year

Andy Reid, HC, Kansas City Chiefs

Last season could not have been much worse for Kansas City. They were one of the two worst teams in the league and dealt with a tragic situation mid-season involving one of their players. Reid had a rough season of his own in Philadelphia with Mike Vick’s turnover issues and a porous defense.

Kansas City brought Reid in and they also landed former San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith. They already had a good core of offensive and defensive players. They made just a few offseason personnel changes outside the coaching staff and suddenly the Chiefs were an 11-5 wild card team. The turnaround Reid brought to Kansas City in one year is definitely deserving of this award.

Offensive Player of the Year

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

I’m not a fan of giving the OPOY award to the recipient of the MVP award even if it does make the most sense. So my choice for this award is my mid-season MVP, Jamaal Charles. He had a phenomenal first half of the season and saved his best performances for the latter part of the year, which made a lot of fantasy football players very happy.

There are only a couple of halfbacks in the NFL who are as versatile as Charles, being a big factor in Kansas City’s run game and passing attack. With his help, Alex Smith had his best season as a professional football player.

Defensive Player of the Year

Robert Mathis, OLB, Indianapolis Colts

I really came down Mathis and Rams DE Robert Quinn for this award. They had very similar seasons statistically. My decision is predicated on Mathis having the best season of his career and being a driving force of the Colts’ AFC South title.

Indianapolis’ defense was very shoddy last year. Andrew Luck led several unlikely 4th quarter comebacks and took advantage of a very easy schedule to make the playoffs as a wild car team. Robert Mathis was a driving force of the Colts’ vast improvement on that side of the ball and is my defensive player of the year.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers

Lacy had a great rookie season, but he wasn’t the only offensive rookie who found quick success in the NFL. But he is the most deserving player for this award. The Green Bay Packers go as Aaron Rodgers goes, and that was evident during the first couple games after he was injured in the middle of the season.

Lacy stepped up as an offensive leader and helped the Packers deal with weekly transitions between starting quarterbacks and without him, Green Bay would not have been playing the Bears for the NFC North title in Week 17.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Kiko Alonso, MLB, Buffalo Bills

Last year I didn’t really know who Luke Kuechly was until I was combing through stats to make my awards predictions. I recognized his name from the draft, but that was it. It is much the same for Alonso, and he had a very similar year statistically as what Kuechly had last year.

Kuechly wound up being the cornerstone of a much-improved Carolina Panthers defense this year. Perhaps Kiko Alonso will be able to help Buffalo turn around next year.

Comeback Player of the Year

Brent Grimes, CB, Miami Dolphins

Most people will say Darrelle Revis should win this award, and I don’t disagree. But Grimes has not gotten nearly as much attention despite his great season.


Grimes suffered a torn Achilles at the beginning of the 2012 season. He started his pro football career in NFL Europe before playing a few seasons in Atlanta. After his Achilles injury, he had to switch teams just like Revis. Grimes ended up in Miami and had a better season statistically than Revis and made a case as one of the better shutdown cornerbacks in the NFL.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Pro Bowl Afterword: Team Sanders vs Team Rice

Legendary 49ers receiver Jerry Rice and his captains, Saints QB Drew Brees
and Rams DE Robert Quinn, drafted the winning team of the 2014 Pro Bowl.

Cory Puffett

That was an excellent game. I was excited for this one, but my excitement was mostly about seeing how the new format would affect the game. But this was truly a great game.

Defense ruled as the Pro Bowl games were changed to allow stunts on the defensive line and bump-and-run coverage against the pass. Because of that, we got a low-scoring game. The third quarter was the first scoreless Pro Bowl quarter since 2007.

It was the most physical Pro Bowl I’ve ever seen. Players made a point to make safe hits, but we saw early that players would not shy from contact. Derrick Johnson of the Kansas City Chiefs really popped Jamaal Charles early in the game. Johnson, playing for Team Rice, wound up being named the defensive MVP.

Nick Foles was named the offensive MVP of the game even though his team lost. He completed 7 of 10 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown for a rating of 130.8. He took Team Sanders on a drive to take the lead in the fourth quarter.

But Alex Smith responded for Team Rice, and as Jerry’s prodding they went for two points to win the game. They converted the two-point try and Justin Tucker’s last-second 67-yard field goal try for Team Sanders fell short.

The two teams combined for nine sacks and eight turnovers/takeaways, but it wasn’t really a sloppy game. There were only six penalties, most of them false start calls, which is understandable with linemen playing with three new quarterbacks. It really was a case of the league’s best defensive players dominating the league’s best offensive players, at least for the most part.

One noteworthy team represented in the Pro Bowl was the Cleveland Browns. Josh Gordon had six receptions for 66 yards and touchdown for Team Rice while Jordan Cameron had a touchdown for Team Sanders. Josh Haden had an interception for Team Rice.

The players on Jerry Rice’s team will each receive $53,000 for winning the Pro Bowl. Prime Time’s players will receive $26,000 each. The players from the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks who were voted to the Pro Bowl but did not play will each receive $39,500.

Tony Gonzalez was on Rice’s winning team. He returned to the Falcons this year hoping to go out a winner in a different way, but playing and winning his last game in Hawaii has to be a pretty good alternative. Also, this was the last game for referee Scott Green, who announced he will retire after this season.

Final Score:
Team Rice – 22
Team Sanders – 21