With the four remaining teams, this weekend’s games could be as exciting as the Super Bowl itself. Without any ado, let’s get to the preview.
Game 2:
Sunday, January 22, 2012
6:30pm – FOX
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
I am having a really hard time breaking down this game, but I refuse to use my Super Bowl prediction method on a conference championship game to get my prediction.
The Giants had a terrible rushing game against Green Bay to say the least. It will only be worse this weekend against the best rushing defense in the NFL, and maybe the best overall in the NFL this season. Eli Manning was able to pick apart the Packers, but don’t expect San Francisco to be so easy to take to slaughter.
Two calls really changed the dynamic of that Giants/Packers game. Two calls that should not have been made (a fumble early and a roughing the passer late) that allowed the Packers to continue dead drives, both of which ended up in the end zone. That game really should have been a bigger blowout than it was. The Packers should consider themselves lucky, and send some ‘thank you’ notes to the officials for allowing them to score double digits. The Giants might have even broken into the 40s had it not been for those two calls. (There was one bad call in favor of the Giants, but it was insignificant to the outcome of the game).
Meanwhile, the 49ers are on a huge high coming off a thriller against the Saints. And now they get to stay at home for one more week. You better believe Tom Coughlin is not going to be playing man coverage on Vernon Davis this weekend. He’ll be mixing zone and double-teams on him most of the night. The only way Davis will be heavily involved is in the short passing game and as a blocker.
Will Alex Smith be able to lead the offense so efficiently if Davis is indeed limited so severely in this game? It is possible, but only if their ground game can get good footing early. The Giants have a knack for showing up in January, and as was said in an episode of NFLNetwork’s America’s Game, Eli is the king of January. Eli has no control over the defense, but when Eli has a good game, it seems to carry over to the other side of the ball.
Alex Smith has finally earned my respect as a top overall draft pick, but can he win in another shootout? I highly doubt it. The 49ers are a great team right now, but they showed late in that Saint’s game that they can get a little sloppy. And if they make the same mistakes, Eli will take advantage.
In my mind, the Giants have slightly more room for error. The 49ers capitalized on some early Saints mistakes, but as New Orleans continued to make huge mistakes, San Francisco slowly stopped making the most of those opportunities and allowed the Saints back in the game. If the Giants play mistake free football, they should run away with it. If they limit their mistakes, the game could be close, but as I said, they have a small window for error that I don’t think the 49ers have.
In the regular season meeting between these two teams, the 49ers came out on top, 27-20. Eli Manning converted two 4th down plays in the final minutes of the game before having a pass batted down at the line on a 4th and 2 in the red zone with the game nearing it’s end. 2 interceptions were likely the biggest downfall for Eli in that game. But he has been playing more and more mistake free every week, and as I said already, he rules in January.
Ultimately, I think we’re in for a Harbaugh-less Super Bowl. I’ve never had a week where I didn’t get at least one game right (other than 2 Super Bowls), but then, there is a first time for everything. A Thanksgiving night rematch certainly is in the cards.
My pick:
New York beats San Francisco, 24-20
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