Sunday, January 30, 2011

One Game to Go

2011 AFC-NFC Pro Bowl
Sunday, January 30, 2011

The Pro Bowl is over, the final activities of the weekend are being finished up in Hawaii, and full attention is now on Arlington.

Though focus has shifted, I would like to provide a quick recap of the Pro Bowl. I only watched the final quarter of the game, so most of this is based on stats from nfl.com and from references to earlier parts of the game by the announcers.

The NFC was forcing turnovers all game and they took advantage of that to take a 42-7 halftime lead. In fact, it was 42-0 until a touchdown run by Jamaal Charles with about two minutes left in the first half finally put the AFC on the board.

Philip Rivers took the AFC on a bit of a comeback, helping his team take a 21-3 third quarter advantage, but they still trailed 45-28 and there was no scoring through the first half of the fourth quarter.

As I said, I didn’t watch must of the game, and I haven’t watched much of past Pro Bowls either, but it was very interesting watching the tackling and how much it seemed the players were trying to make sure that their tackles wouldn’t run the risk of injuring the other players. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it definitely made the game even less interesting than I had expected.

It did, however, make it worth watching (for me at least) when NFC Coach Mike Smith allowed FOX reporter Jay Glazier call a play. It had been designed to go to Lions WR Calvin Johnson, but with Johnson on the sideline, Saint QB Drew Brees found Cowboys TE Jason Witten for a big gain.

After the NFC took a 20-point lead late in the 4th quarter, Rivers was taken out and Chiefs QB Matt Cassel was put in the game. He threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown but came back and led the AFC on a touchdown drive.

The New England Patriots head coach, Bill Belichick, coached the AFC team.

The NFC won the game, taking the all-time lead 21-20.

Tomorrow begins Super Bowl week, so keep an eye on my Super Bowl preview posts coming out throughout this week.

Final Score: NFC – 55, AFC – 41

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Week 1 of Super Bowl Week

After the Conference Championships we have to wait an entire fortnight for Super Bowl Sunday to come around. In a league like the NFL, a lot can happen in that time. Here’s a recap of the first week of preparation for Super Bowl XLV.

Adios Ochocinco:

Chad Ochocinco is [soon to be] no more, as he announced early in the week that he will change his name back to Chad Johnson.

There is a lot of uncertainty about the Wide Receiver’s future in Cincinnati, and the league for that matter. He has always been very outspoken, often in a fashion others don’t like, which could make it difficult for him to sign if the Bengals choose to let him go.

Goodell to Cut Own Salary:

With time running out on talks between the Labor Union, the Players’ Association and everyone else involved, Goodell is apparently very serious that he wants the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to be done on time. If progress is made, it has been announced that the deadline could be pushed back, as it was in 2006.

In the mean time, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announced that he will cut his own salary, which is about $10 Million annually, to $1 for this year if the new CBA isn’t done in time for the 2011 regular season.

Brian Reed’s Body Recovered:

Earlier this week a body was recovered from the Mississippi River that was believed to be the body of Brian Reed, brother of Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed. Reed’s brother had gone missing after reportedly jumping off a bride and into the Mississippi when approached by a police officer. That was during the week leading into Baltimore’s Divisional Round matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The body was found on Wednesday and the autopsy was performed Thursday. The autopsy confirmed a preliminary report that the body was, indeed, Brian Reed.

Fisher Out in Tennessee:

Jeff Fisher, who has been with the Titans organization for more than 16 years, will not return as their coach for the 2011 season. He was there for their move from Houston, through the name change from Oilers to Titans, and for their Super Bowl run, where they lost to the St. Louis Rams the year they made the name change.

It has not yet been determined who will take Fisher’s place. But, despite being a couple seasons removed from their last winning season, his replacement will have big shoes to fill.

Vikings Still Hoping for New Stadium:

The Minnesota Vikings want an outdoor stadium. The city doesn’t want to give it to them, which was causing irritations within the organization since their MLB counterpart, the Minnesota Twins, was moved from the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome to outdoor Target Field, with the 2010 baseball season being its inaugural season.

There were brief talks of moving the franchise. Though no specific locations were named, it was believed that Los Angeles was the implied location, since there is already talk of building a stadium there to attract an NFL franchise to relocate.

This week, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that a former Army ammunitions site in the Twin Cities is now being considered for a new outdoor stadium for the Vikings. Nothing has been announced by team officials or governing officials in Minnesota as of yet.

Hostage Blackberry:

In other news from Minnesota, Vikings WR Bernard Barrian was reportedly reunited with his Blackberry, which he had lost in Las Vegas back in October. A couple found it and were charging Barrian $30,000 for it’s return, with the alternative being that it would be sold to the “highest bidder.”

After Barrian sued the couple for his phone’s return, the Blackberry was reportedly returned to him.

Tweeting Packers:

A lot is on the line on February 6, but the Packers appear to be falling apart at the seams. There are multiple storylines for this one so I won’t delve into the details. You can check nfl.com for those.

Earlier in the week it was about Green Bay players on IR not being in the team photo for the Super Bowl. Mike McCarthy wasn’t happy with how it was handled, but pushed the photo op back so that those players will be able to be in the picture when they join up with the active players near the end of next week.

Most recently it, was a comment made by Packers QB Aaron Rodgers that received a tweet by teammate Nick Barnett, who has been on IR since week 4 with a wrist injury.

That is my list what I felt were the most important, or funny, stories within the NFL this past week. The Senior Bowl just ended about an hour or so ago, with the South winning 24-10. Any other news can be found on nfl.com.

Pro Bowl Back in Hawaii

For the first time since 1979, the Pro Bowl was not played in Hawaii last year. Instead, it was moved to Florida. In all likelihood, the Pro Bowl will no longer be played in Hawaii yearly, but rather every other year, or else once ever few years it will be played outside of Honolulu.

This year, however, it is back where it should be, at least in my mind and in the minds of many in my generation. Now, I don’t particularly care too much about the Pro Bowl. The only reason I’ve ever watched was because the red and blue jerseys with different helmets for each player just look cool. I’ve never watched an entire Pro Bowl, and I won’t tomorrow either. However, this is a special treat for the players who have stood out during the 2010 season, and so I’m going to put up a short post honoring them.

In the cases of most of the players, there is no surprise that they will be playing tomorrow. However, there are a few players who were not expecting to be in Hawaii and are now on the All-Star teams for various reasons, most notably in place of those competing in Super Bowl XLV next weekend. This is not a complete list of replacement players, but the following is a list of the 13 replacements named after the Conference Championship games were completed.

1. Safety – Eric Berry, Chiefs (Troy Polamalu, Steelers)
2. Safety – Roman Harper, Saints (Nick Collins, Packers)
3. Cornerback – Antoine Winfield, Vikings (Tramon Williams, Packers)
4. Cornerback – Brent Grimes, Falcons (Charles Woodson, Packers)
5. Linebacker – Tamba Hali, Chiefs (James Harrison, Steelers)
6. Linebacker – Jon Beason, Panthers (Lance Briggs, Bears (injury))
7. Linebacker – London Fletcher, Redskins (Brian Urlacher, Bears (injury))
8. Linebacker – Brian Orakpo, Redskins (Clay Matthews, Packers)
9. Defensive End – Randy Starks, Dolphins (Brett Keisel, Steelers)
10. Center – Alex Mack, Browns (Nick Mangold, Jets (injury))
11. Center – Jeff Saturday, Colts (Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers (Super Bowl & injury))
12. Offensive Tackle – Donald Penn, Buccaneers (Chad Clifton, Packers)
13. Wide Receiver – Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (Greg Jennings, Packers)

If you are interested in a detailed roster, you can visit nfl.com. The link to the exact page is at the end of this post. The roster on that page is a detailed one. It has the entire list of players by position, by team (regular season, not AFC/NFC), and which players are not participating and for what reason. When you see that Brady is not on the list, remember that he just had foot surgery on Thursday.

One more note: since the Pro Bowl became NFC/AFC in 1971 (previously it had been East/West), the series is tied between the two conferences, 20-20. The NFC took the lead in the 1979 game and held the series lead until the AFC battled back and tied it in the 2002 Pro Bowl. The winner of tomorrow’s game has bragging rights on the line.

Tomorrow evening I’ll post a little blurb about the Pro Bowl, nothing long since I won’t be watching it, and Monday starts Super Bowl week. Later this evening will be a recap of some of this past week’s highlights. Thanks for reading!

AFC/NFC Pro Bowl Rosters can be seen at:
http://www.nfl.com/probowl/story/09000d5d81d470fb/article/2011-pro-bowl-rosters

Friday, January 28, 2011

2010 Postseason Rewind: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC Championship Game
Sunday, January 23, 2011

This marks the 8th consecutive year the AFC representative in the Super Bowl will be New England, Indianapolis, or Pittsburgh. The Steelers tie Dallas for the most Super Bowl appearances in NFL history with eight appearances. Pittsburgh has won six of their seven Super Bowls, their only loss being to Dallas in Super Bowl XXX in 1996.

New York, for the second year in a row, advanced to the AFC title game, only to fall short of their goal of the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance since their upset of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

The Jets got off to a terrible start. Their defense had no answer for Pittsburgh’s first drive, which lasted just over 9 minutes and resulted in a 7-0 Steelers lead. Pittsburgh continued to put a hurting on the Jets defense, and New York’s offense failed to get any momentum. It wasn’t long before New York was in a 24-0 hole.

Hope wasn’t completely lost, however, as Nick Folk nailed a 42-yard field goal late in the half to put the Jets on the board before halftime.

New York came out fired up in the second half. Less than three minutes in, Mark Sanchez hit Santonio Holmes for a 45-yard touchdown. Holmes broke off his route when he saw an opening, caused by a Pittsburgh defender slipping in coverage, and Sanchez found him calling for the ball well ahead of the Steelers secondary.

The Steelers offense failed to get anything going in the second half. Roethlisberger, like Rodgers in the early game, couldn’t seem to get much of a rhythm after a good start to the game. It didn’t help that the Jets defense finally picked up the intensity and did what most teams fail to do, take Big Ben down.

After a failed drive by New York, their defense got the ball back and Sanchez & Co. marched the ball down field on a long drive that took up the better part of eight minutes. A failed 4th & goal gave the ball back to Pittsburgh with the Jets still trailing 24-10.

On the first play, a bobbled snap was recovered by Roethlisberger in the end zone, but he was stopped there and the Jets added two points to their tally. They took the next possession to the house and suddenly it was a 5-point game.

After a season during which many said the majority of the Jets wins came from luck, that luck finally ran out. Pittsburgh shut the door on any remaining hope on the New York sideline of completing what would have been the biggest comeback in conference championship history with two first down throws by Big Ben. Three kneel downs locked up their birth in Super Bowl XLV in Dallas.

Final Score: Pittsburgh – 24, New York – 19

2010 Postseason Rewind: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

NFC Championship Game
Sunday, January 23, 2011

Aaron Rodgers led the Packers on a brilliant opening drive in chilly Chicago, home of their NFC North rival and the 2010 NFC Championship Game. After the messy field conditions caused a slip on the opening kickoff return, the Packers caught their footing and Green Bay traveled the length of the field. Rodgers capped off the drive himself by barely putting the ball over the goal line on a QB scramble to take an early 7-0 lead. Chicago had a decent opening drive, but couldn’t convert a key third down and chose to punt rather than try a long field goal and take a chance of the field causing a miss.

Neither team had much success on third down. The Packers were the first to convert one, but it was after nearly 15 tries by the two teams combined.

It took a few more drives, but in the second quarter the Packers extended their lead to 14-0, and it stayed that way until the fourth quarter.

Jay Cutler left the game due to a knee injury. He wasn’t sure when it occurred but it was assumed that it happened sometime during the early states of the game. With Bears fans wanting an explanation, Todd Collins came in, hoping to have similar success as he did in Washington a few years ago. But, having been given little time to work with the starters, he struggled, going 0 for 4, with two of those incompletions nearly intercepted by Tramon Williams.

With less than a minute left in the third quarter, Caleb Hanie stepped in for Chicago, and once the 4th quarter began, there was no going back. With Collins and Cutler both now ineligible to return, due to rules too drawn out to go over here, the Bears would have to stick with Hanie moving forward, but that turned out not to be such a bad deal.

Hanie brought the Bears back. Unfortunately, he also provided the Packers their winning score. He threw two big touchdown passes, but threw a pick-6 to DL B. J. Raji in between his two scoring throws, and Green Bay’s defense looked very good near the end of the game as Sam Shields picked off his second pass of the game on the Bears last drive to clinch the win and a Super Bowl birth for Green Bay.

Rodgers did not look comfortable after the first few drives in this one. He played well early but may have shown signs of being able to be shaken up, as his later throws were not as accurate as they usually are. He was also forced to throw on the run a lot, something he hasn’t had to do too much of this year, and certainly not this postseason. The question leading into Super Bowl XLV will be whether the Packers can better protect him in Dallas.

Final Score: Green Bay – 21, Chicago – 14

Thursday, January 27, 2011

2010 Postseason Rewind: New York Jets at New England Patriots

Divisional Round Weekend
Sunday, January 16, 2011

Rex Ryan and his Jets could not keep their mouths shut; New England claimed to be only more fired up for the game by the Jets’ comments. Instead, New York shocked everyone by backing up their words and beating a team that was widely thought to be even better than the ’07 Patriots who went 16-0 and narrowly lost the Super Bowl.

Mark Sanchez worked on whatever it was he had been having issues with the previous week and threw as well as I’ve seen him in his two year career that will now include two AFC Championship appearances. He threw three touchdowns and no picks, while the Jets defense got to Brady and picked of one of his passes, something that hadn’t been done in several weeks. The Jets capitalized on everything they could, and even when they couldn’t force turnovers they stalled drives. Even though the Patriots had possession for almost 10 minutes more than the Jets, New York controlled the tempo of the game.

Taking a 14-3 lead into halftime, the Jets didn’t let up. When the Patriots scored a touchdown and scored two points after it to pull to within three, the Jets responded with a touchdown of their own on an amazing catch by Santonio Holmes on a perfectly placed ball by Sanchez.

New England scored a field goal to pull to within seven (21-14), but the Jets scored again, too. When the Patriots put the ball in the end zone again, it was too late and the Jets went on to win.

This is the second consecutive year New England has lost their first game of the postseason, this after missing the playoffs the year following their perfect regular season (Brady’s knee injury).

The Jets, meanwhile, would again be in the AFC Championship game with the goal of winning it this time.

To do so they were going to need another perfect game. The game would be in Pittsburgh. It would be no easy task, but flying high after this upset, and after becoming the first team to beat the Colts and Patriots in consecutive weeks, the Jets expected to be up for the challenge.

Final Score: New York – 28, New England – 21

2010 Postseason Rewind: Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Divisional Round Weekend
Sunday, January 16, 2011

The Seahawks were playing for another home playoff game and to show that their Wild-Card win over the Saints was not a fluke. The Bears were determined not to be upset the way the defending Super Bowl Champions were.

Matt Hasselbeck was solid, delivering passes that his receivers should have had an easy time making plays on, but his receivers weren’t making the plays. In addition, John Carlson, a Seahawks Tight End, was carted off the field with a head injury after landing on his head on the frozen sideline on the first series of the game.

Without the player who helped Hasselbeck lead his team past the Saints, the Seahawks went flat. The Bears took advantage and had a 28-0 lead early in the 4th quarter. Seattle finally got on the board with a field goal and a touchdown, and then scored two more touchdowns after Chicago built their lead to 35-10.

The rally was too little, too late though. Hasselbeck finished the day with three touchdowns and no interceptions. There isn’t much more you can ask for from your quarterback than a near perfect game. Cutler, however, also played well, throwing for two touchdowns, running for another two, and throwing no picks. The Seattle receiving corps just woke up too late.

The Bears would prepare to host the Packers in the NFC Championship game while the Seahawks made their trip home. It would be the 182nd meeting between them in the 90 years since their first meeting and the second time they would meet in the playoffs with an opportunity to play in the NFL title game on the line.

Final Score: Chicago – 35, Seattle – 24

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

2010 Postseason Rewind: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Divisional Round Weekend
Saturday, January 15, 2011

Some thought this would be a toss-up, but most felt the Packers had what it took to be just the second team this season to defeat the Falcons in Atlanta. Doing what had been nearly impossible in the Georgia Dome, they rattled Matt Ryan, picking off two of his passes, including a pick-6 at the end of the first half that gave the Packers a 28-14 halftime lead.

Aaron Rodgers threw for three touchdowns again, gaining 366 yards through the air as their rushing attack was essentially put out of commission for the game (they gained just 45 yards on the ground).

It was a 35-0 run that put the Falcons out of the postseason, and made this game almost boring to all but Packers fans. After trailing 14-7, the Pack went on their run to make it a 42-14 game. They gave up a touchdown only to score two more field goals before the final gun. Green Bay had an incredible amount of momentum going into halftime and didn’t give it up in the second half.

Green Bay will appear in the NFC Championship game next week for the first time since a disappointing loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champions, the New York Giants, in January 2008.

Green Bay would, once again, be traveling. They clinched a game in either Chicago against the Bears, their NFC North rival, or in Seattle against the Seahawks. Though they didn’t yet know where they would be the following Sunday, they knew they would have to win another road game to get to Dallas.

Final Score: Green Bay Packers – 48, Atlanta Falcons – 21

2010 Postseason Rewind: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Divisional Round Weekend
Saturday, January 15, 2011

Not at all what was expected to occur, this one turned into a game who’s score is representative of a shoot out, though that isn’t what happened by any means.

After the Steelers took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, the Ravens went on a scoring drive of their own to tie the game. They then capitalized on turnovers to continue on what ended up a 21-0 run. During that run a very bizarre play occurred when Ben Roethlisberger fumbled the ball and, though the whistle hadn’t been blown, everyone except Cory Redding assumed it had been an incomplete pass. As it turned out it had been a fumble and Redding had his first career touchdown.

The third quarter saw quite a turn of events. Pittsburgh cleaned up their act and messed up Baltimore’s, forcing turnovers and scoring points off of them. The Ravens managed only a field goal during the entire second half but the Steelers led several scoring drives.

After scoring two touchdowns in the third quarter and a field goal in the fourth, the Steelers led 24-21. After a field goal for Baltimore tied it up, Big Ben did what he does best, deliver a late game blow. It was a 58-yard pass to Antonio Brown, which led to a 2-yard scoring run by Rashard Mendenhall to take the lead for good.

Both teams put great amounts of pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. Roethlisberger was sacked six times, Flacco was sacked five times. Flacco, however, was the one who was rattled the most as Big Ben kept his composure in the Steelers big comeback victory over their AFC North rival to propel them into the AFC Championship game.

The win clinched them either a visit to Foxboro to face New England or a chance to host the Jets at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh was one game away from their third Super Bowl appearance in the past six seasons.

Final score: Pittsburgh – 31, Baltimore – 24

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

2010 Postseason Rewind: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Wild-Card Weekend
Sunday, January 9, 2011

Prior to the first round beginning, this was supposed to be the game to watch. It lived up to that expectation, though both of the previous day’s games were exciting in their own way.

This was to be a rematch of what many fans now feel week 1 of the regular season should have been, Aaron Rodgers vs. Michael Vick. Of course, that early season game did end that way, but it began with Kevin Kolb leading the Eagles to battle before he suffered a concussion. Green Bay won that game, 27-20. But, after he ‘reinvented himself,’ Philly fans thought Vick would deliver them a victory.

As it turned out, they were wrong. Vick did well, throwing for nearly 300 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. But the Packers defense stalled most of his drives before they could score points. They got to Vick in the backfield, sacking him three times for a net loss of 21 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, helped the Packers show why they may be considered the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, as he threw three touchdowns on 180 yards passing. James Starks, meanwhile, had a monster game no one saw coming. He ran for 123 yards and, even though he didn’t score any touchdowns, he provided a spark, and a ground game on which Rodgers was able to build his air attack.

Both teams played very well, but a missed two-point conversion for the Eagles late in the game meant they would need a touchdown. They failed to get a shot at scoring as the Packers kept the ball away from them as long as they needed to and came out on top, earning a visit to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta to take on the NFC Regular Season Champ Atlanta Falcons.

Final Score: Green Bay Packers – 21, Philadelphia Eagles – 16

2010 Postseason Rewind: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Wild-Card Weekend
Sunday, January 9, 2011

Baltimore showed up; Kansas City didn’t. That was the story of this game. After taking a 3-0 lead, Baltimore gave up a big touchdown run, 41 yards, to Jamaal Charles. In a position where they could have easily fallen apart trying to fix things that weren’t broken, the Ravens instead settled down and never gave up another score to the Chiefs.

Joe Flacco never faced too much pressure, and when he did he was able to get out of the way and still deliver solid throws. He finished the day with 265 passing yards and two touchdowns. Matt Cassel, however, was the Matt Cassel many expected to see but Chiefs fans hoped never to see again. He threw for just 70 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions.

Ray Rice never got a whole lot going with his legs, but with a solid defensive effort and an offensive line that was protecting its quarterback, Flacco carried his team to the Divisional Round, it’s third appearance in the second round in as many years. That accomplishment made Flacco the first player to make and win a playoff game each of his first three years in the league. With this win he also tied Dan Marino’s record for most wins in a quarterback’s first three seasons.

This loss ended the hopes of Chiefs fans and players who were hoping to finally win a playoff game after such a long wait. They have not won a playoff game since the 1993 season, when they made it to the AFC Championship game only to lose to a Bills team that would go on to lose its fourth consecutive Super Bowl.

The future does look bright for the Chiefs, though. They completely revamped their team last offseason and could be looking at another good year in the AFC West next season (pending the CBA situation).

Baltimore, meanwhile, punched their ticket to Pittsburgh with this win and that rivalry would be renewed. It is a rivalry that seems to boast games that get closer and lower scoring every time they meet. These two teams have defenses that are constantly ranked in the top 5-10 of all defenses in the league. They also boast two quarterbacks who have proven their worth to their teams but tend to have more troubles than usual when facing the opposing defense.

Final Score: Baltimore Ravens – 30, Kansas City Chiefs – 7

Monday, January 24, 2011

2010 Postseason Rewind: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Wild-Card Weekend
Saturday, January 8, 2011

In another game that ended somewhat unexpectedly, the Jets shocked the Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium.

A very sloppy first half ended with the Colts leading 7-0. Mark Sanchez couldn’t keep his passes low enough for his receivers to catch them and the Colts tried too hard to establish a running game. Indianapolis had a rough season, barely winning the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Jets were in a very close race for the AFC East until the final few weeks of the season.

The Colts had to win their final four games to lock up a birth in the postseason, and they did so by finally setting Manning up with a decent ground game to keep the defense honest and not constantly expecting the ball to be left in Peyton’s hands. However, the Colts appeared to be too set on getting their running backs rolling and forgot that Manning was ultimately the reason they had made this far to begin with. When Manning threw, he did so well, but behind a very unexpected game plan they suffered through several three-and-outs among other short-lived drives early on. The Jets didn’t do much better, though, and the Colts had the lead going into halftime, their score coming on one big play on which Pierre Garcon beat the Jets secondary for a 57-yard touchdown.

The Colts never could find the end zone in the second half, however. After the Colts defense started giving way to the Jets offensive attack, the Jets looked to be in control.

Having taken a 14-10 lead in the fourth quarter, the Jets finally began giving way to Manning’s attack, and the Colts defense held strong, forcing two three-and-outs on the same drive (a running-into-the-kicker penalty gave the Jets an automatic first down, but they again could not convert on their own). The Colts scored field goals on two drives to take the lead, 16-14.

The Colts haven’t had a particularly strong defensive unit for a few years now. Last year was their best showing since their Super Bowl run in 2006, but even last year they struggled. However, they have always seemed to perform well in one situation, when they had to get the ball back. With the lead late in the game and no need to get the ball back for Manning, they fell apart. After a dismal 4th quarter to that point, Sanchez finally began making some headway.

A controversial late time out called by Jim Caldwell gave Sanchez an opportunity to find out that Braylon Edwards had been beating his man on each of the previous three plays. Sure enough, he went to him right out of the time out for an 18-yard play (though he almost threw it too high, something he had been having trouble with all game). Nick Folk came onto the field and kicked the winning field goal as time expired.

This marked the first time that a Rex Ryan coached defense beat Peyton Manning, minus the late-season game during the 2009 season in which Curtis Painter played much of the game for the Colts.

The Jets advanced to the Divisional Round, clinching a game in Foxboro, where they lost, to say the least, to New England 45-3 as the season neared its end. In four meeting between the two teams with Rex Ryan as the head coach in New York, the home team has won every time.

The Jets looked to advance to their second consecutive AFC Championship Game while the Patriots aimed to prove correct the analysts who claimed this to be an even better team than the ’07 Patriots who went undefeated in the regular season. That story will be available Wednesday evening.

Final Score: New York Jets – 17, Indianapolis Colts – 16

2010 Postseason Rewind: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Wild-Card Weekend
Saturday, January 8, 2011

In an incredible game that many figured would be a blowout in favor of the defending Super Bowl champions, the Seahawk stunned the Saints in front of their home crowd at Quest Field. The first team to win their division and earn a playoff appearance with a 7-9 record, Seattle showed NFL fans that they deserved the spot many felt they had taken from teams like the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who each won 10 games.

Analysts gave Seattle very little credit in the week leading up to this game, but a healthy Matt Hasselbeck made all the difference. He lit up the field as nearly every pass was thrown in as perfect a place imaginable. He finished the day with 4 touchdown passes and just one interception.

After going down 10-0 early in the first quarter, Seattle marched down field and responded with a touchdown and continued their rally in the second quarter where they outscored New Orleans 17-10 on their way to taking a 24-20 halftime lead.

Seattle came out firing to start the second half, and their defense held tight to help their offense extend their advantage to 34-20 by the end of the third quarter. The Saints didn’t give up though. A touchdown and a field goal later, the score was 34-30 and Seattle looked on the verge of an offensive collapse. However, terrible tackling by New Orleans, and a showcase of strength on the part of Marshawn Lynch, effectively sealed the deal in Seattle.

The Saints put up a fight and scored a touchdown to pull to within 5 (41-36), but failed on the two-point conversion. After a failed onside kick, all the Seahawks had to do was have Hasselbeck sit on the ball and time ran out on New Orleans, almost before it began.

The Saints hadn’t been given much chance to get to the Super Bowl, but very few seriously expected them to be sent packing so soon. Meanwhile, the Seahawks earned an opportunity to prove that they deserved to be in the postseason by showing up the following week. As the #4 seed, winning this game did not tell them who they would be playing the following week, only that they would be playing in the Divisional Round. Until the next day, they only knew they would either be playing as the visiting team, either in Chicago (where they won early in the season) or Atlanta (a team that beat them fairly handily in Seattle back in week 15).

Was this game a fluke, or were the Seahawks really as dangerous as they appeared in this Wild-Card game against the Saints. The answer to that question came the following week. The story on that will be available Wednesday evening.

Final Score: Seattle Seahawks – 41, New Orleans Saints – 36

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Super Bowl XLV, an Early Preview

The stage is set for what many NFL analysts over the past week called "the most intriguing matchup" for Feb. 6. The Green Bay Packers, who's legendary coach has his name on the winning team's trophy, who won the first two Super Bowls, who have so much history before and after the creation of this game, will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have now clinched an eighth Super Bowl birth, tied for the most with the team who's stadium hosts this year's game.

Green Bay won their game despite Aaron Rodgers not looking very comfortable for the latter part of the game. Their defense was able to get the job done, despite a late rally by a Caleb Hanie led Chicago Bears team. BJ Raji had the play to see with an interception turned touchdown rumble, almost broken up by the man who threw the pick.

Final Score:
Green Bay - 21
Chicago - 14

The Steelers used a lot of clock on their first drive, then, behind some strong running by Rashard Mendenhall, put up serious points, jumping to a 24-0 lead before a Nick Fold field goal put the Jets on the board seconds before half time. The Jets came out firing in the second half, but a sluggish "hurry-up" offense left no time on the clock, and once the Steelers were able to get the Jets to burn their time outs, it took three kneel downs to make the win official.

Final Score:
New York - 19
Pittsburgh - 24

I will be posting throughout the week. I have recaps of all the games so far, labeled "Postseason Rewinds" to take you back through each round of the postseason that has taken us to the final two teams. I will post two a day from Monday through Friday before a brief Pro Bowl look and then the Super Bowl previews. Keep checking back for those, as well as for my unofficial and official Super Bowl picks (official comes from Madden 11, unofficial is my gut/analytical feeling.

Super Bowl Sunday
February 6, 2011
6:30pm on FOX

Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers (home team based on odd-numbered Super Bowl)

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Championship Sunday, Pt. II

Each season, six out of the total 16 teams in each conference qualify for the postseason. Of the twelve teams in the postseason, eight are division winners, the other four qualifiers making it based on record. With just two teams remaining in each conference, this Sunday is one of the most anticipated days of each year in football. Nearly every year, one of the two games played on this day is considered “the actual championship game.” Will that be the case this year? Will one of these games be the most competitive game of the year? Or will this be just to great games leading into the ultimate Super Bowl matchup? The winners of these two Conference Championship games will play for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLV. Let’s take a look at the matchups.

Game 2:

Sunday, January 23, 2011
6:30pm – CBS

New York Jets @ Pittsburg Steelers

This is the game I am most looking forward to this Sunday, not so much because I think it will be a particularly exciting game, but because I find it the most intriguing matchup.

Both teams are coming off Divisional Round games against division rivals, the Steelers came back to beat the Ravens in what is often the most physical rivalry game the NFL sees two or three times each year and the Jets recovered from being trounced 45-3 during the regular season to earn a 7-point win over the Patriots in New England, the first time the road team won in their rivalry since Rex Ryan became New York’s head coach.

The Jets have one of the best ground games in the NFL; the Steelers have one of the best run defenses. I think the Jets may actually have the advantage here. Though the Steelers have some great defenders, and Troy Polamalu, though playing from the safety position, can be anywhere on the field in the blink of an eye. However, with two really good running backs in LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Green able to split the carries in the game, the Jets may be able to wear down the Steelers run defense.

The problem facing the Jets is that they cannot afford to be one-dimensional against the Steelers. But Pittsburgh poses a problem on the other dimension. New York is coming off a game in which they faced one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Now they face one of the best and if the Jets cannot make the necessary changes to adapt from one to the other, and make those switches from the get-go, the Steelers defense will force a lot of early three-and-outs and the Jets will never get a chance to break through the Steelers run defense.

My favorite matchup for this game will be the Steelers offense against the Jets defense. The Steelers have a really good pass game, and Mendenhall adds a solid run game to the mix. The Jets seem to be better defending the pass and I think the Steelers have a pretty significant advantage on the ground. The Patriots didn’t seem to press the run that hard, and the Colts don’t have a ground attack, the Jets are coming off a couple of games where they relied very heavily on defending against the pass. Their rush defense may be a bit rusty. They’ll have to shake that off to stay in this game in the early going.

This is the toughest game I’ve had to pick this postseason, and my pick early in the week was Pittsburgh. But I’m switching it to the Jets. The Steelers have what it takes, they’ve won this game twice in the past four seasons and will look to make it three in five, but the Jets are here for the second season in a row. They haven’t been in the Super Bowl since upsetting the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. In addition, they are coming off back-to-back wins against the Colts and the Patriots, the first team to do so since Manning and Brady have been the quarterbacks of the two teams. In doing so, the Jets beat two of the three teams/quarterbacks to represent the AFC in the past seven Super Bowls. The other of those three teams is what stands in their way as they try to get to Super Bowl XLV.

Emotions will be running high on both sides, but I think they may be a bit higher on the Jets sideline and I think they are better prepared to use that emotion positively.

My pick: New York beats Pittsburgh, 27-23

Championship Sunday, Pt. I

Each season, six out of the total 16 teams in each conference qualify for the postseason. Of the twelve teams in the postseason, eight are division winners, the other four qualifiers making it based on record. With just two teams remaining in each conference, this Sunday is one of the most anticipated days of each year in football. Nearly every year, one of the two games played on this day is considered “the actual championship game.” Will that be the case this year? Will one of these games be the most competitive game of the year? Or will this be just to great games leading into the ultimate Super Bowl matchup? The winners of these two Conference Championship games will play for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLV. Let’s take a look at the matchups.

Game 1:

Sunday, January 23, 2011
3:00pm – FOX

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Many consider this to be the game to watch on Sunday. A lot has been put into the storied rivalry between these two franchises. Over a 90-year history of playing each other, Green Bay and Chicago have met an NFL record 181 times (not including preseason). The Bears lead the all-time series and won the only other postseason matchup between these two teams, back in 1941 in a game that vaulted them to their sixth NFL Championship appearance. They would win for the fourth time against the Giants that year.

However, while history has been known to repeat itself from time to time, when the factors contributing to the game are all very different, the chances of that happening are a little less. The Bears have a good rushing attack and Jay Cutler played very well last week against the Seahawks, throwing two TD passes and rushing for two more.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers defense both performed at the highest level against a team that was nearly unstoppable in the Georgia Dome all season. I have to pick a winner for this game, but I’ve been going back and forth all week on this game.

Ultimately, I think I have to pick the Packers. Green Bay responded every time the Falcons got any kind of attack going. Their defense put the nail in the coffin at the end of the first half with a pick-6 to take a 28-14 lead. The offense nailed it in during the second half, as they could do no wrong. Aaron Rodgers is easily the best quarterback remaining in the postseason right now. He has 22 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in his last nine games. He can run, and is starting to make a name for himself as one of the most dangerous quarterbacks when he tucks it and runs. On 1st & 10 on ESPN this week, one of the analysts said that Rodgers is an even more dangerous runner than Michael Vick. I hesitate to agree with that, but he certainly isn’t far off. He is the complete package as a quarterback.

The Packers defense is really coming together this postseason. The Bears have a good run game, but if the Packers can contain that, and I think they can, the Bears will have to pass against one of the better pass defenses in the league.

Another thing I like about the Packers is that they have a killer instinct. The Falcons were already essentially out of the game by the end of the 3rd quarter last week and the Packers continued attacking.

The Bears, meanwhile, got a big 28-0 lead and then let it slip away. Granted one of the touchdowns for Seattle took a lot of luck and a bad roll of a Chicago defender’s hands, but Cutler threw a late interception and the Bears didn’t get away with as much as they should have based on how they did early in the game. The Bears will put up a fight this weekend, but I think they will falter down the stretch.

All this is a long and very detailed way of saying that I don’t think this game is the game to watch this weekend. It should be exciting early, but I don’t expect this to be another low scoring matchup like in week 17. I don’t expect the Packers to blow the Bears out in Chicago, but I think they will have a fairly comfortable margin of victory.

My pick: Green Bay beats Chicago, 34-23

Friday, January 14, 2011

Divisional Round, Pt. IV

Four teams are done until (at least) the 2011 season. Eight teams remain, the four winners from last week and the four teams who earned at least one home postseason game and a Wild-Card bye. I decided not to write earlier in the week about the first round games. Instead I will use a brief analysis of the winners as I discuss my picks for this weekend, the Divisional Round of the 2010 NFL Postseason.

Game 4:

Sunday, January 16, 2011
4:30pm – CBS

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

So both AFC Divisional playoff matchups this weekend involve division rivals, and once again they are teams who split their regular season meetings 1-1.

In their first meeting, back in week 2, Brady threw his first two interceptions of the season (two of the four he would end up throwing) and Sanchez was nearly perfect as he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions. Don’t forget that the entire second half was played with Darrelle Revis and the Jets still won 28-14. Then the series went to New England in week 13. Brady could do no wrong (4 TD, 0 INT) and Sanchez could do no right (0 TD, 3 INT). 45-3 was the final score in that game.

The Jets have to lay off the blitzing. Use the front line to get a little pressure on Brady and spread the linebackers out. Don’t play them in man-to-man though, the linebackers need to be in zone coverage so they can come in to stop the run. Green-Ellis and Woodhead (not to be confused with whoever Joe Theismann was trying to talk about on No Huddle) are too dangerous to expect the defensive line to contain them. Brady will throw a lot of passes, but he’s just as content to let the running game take care of things.

Another reason to keep the linebackers fairly close to the line of scrimmage is because Brady hates, I mean hates taking deep shots. Sure he has Welker and Branch, but they’re both only 5-9 and not a viable option for a deep pass unless they get complete separation. Brady prefers to throw short dump passes (though he has earned it, this is the main reason his no-interception streak has gone on as long as it has) to guys with open space. Hernandez and Gronkowski have been his favorite targets for the past few weeks. The Jets have to find a way to neutralize them, or at least not give them extra open space. This will force Brady to look elsewhere. When he is forced to look for other people when he wasn’t expecting to, Brady makes mistakes. Usually he is still able to keep the ball away from the defenders, but sometimes he ends up keeping it away from his receivers, too. Even if they can’t force any interceptions, forcing incompletions and keeping Brady off the field will be a big help toward any hope of advancing in the postseason.

The other key will be Mark Sanchez’s play. Against Indianapolis last week he was a bit erratic, with many of his passes sailing high and over his receiver’s heads. The biggest reason they won was the long drive in the 4th quarter that kept the ball out of Manning’s hands. They have to do the same to Brady. Also, a timeout in the closing minutes of the game allowed the Jets to tell Sanchez that Braylon Edwards was wide open on the right side of the field. And even then Sanchez almost botched it by making Edwards rocket upwards to come down with it along the sideline. Sanchez has to figure out what was causing that issue, whether it was his stride or his nerves, and get it fixed. If he can’t do that, this won’t even be a game.

The Patriots are the favorite to win, and many argue that this New England team is better than the 2007 Patriots. I’m not sure if I would go so far as to say all that, but they are talented and very capable of winning the Super Bowl this year. If that happens Brady will become the third Quarterback to win four Super Bowl rings (Bradshaw and Montana).

Ultimately, I think this game will put Jets players’ (such as Antonio Cromartie’s) foots where they belong…in their mouths. Rex Ryan can get away with it, though I’m not sure how. If he feels he’s spent enough time game planning to hold press conferences so he can publicly trash talk about the Patriots, so be it. But after that 45-3 thrashing in week 13, the Jets players should be spending way more time on the practice field and with their trainers than in front of the cameras.

In Rex Ryan’s two years in New York, the home team has won every time these two teams have met, and I don’t expect this meeting to be any exception.

My pick:

New England beats New York, 41-26

Divisional Round, Pt. III

Four teams are done until (at least) the 2011 season. Eight teams remain, the four winners from last week and the four teams who earned at least one home postseason game and a Wild-Card bye. I decided not to write earlier in the week about the first round games. Instead I will use a brief analysis of the winners as I discuss my picks for this weekend, the Divisional Round of the 2010 NFL Postseason.

Game 3:

Sunday, January 16, 2011
1:00pm – FOX

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

I never expected that I would have to say this, but the Seahawks actually have a chance to win a playoff game…again! Seattle is coming off two big wins in which their ground game came up huge. They finally had a good game running the ball against St. Louis in the season finale that put them into the postseason. Then, after Hasselbeck put them in a position to win, it was Marshawn Lynch who finished off the defending Super Bowl champs to advance to Soldier Field.

The Seahawks have already won in Soldier Field this season, and though the Bears will be determined not to let it happen again, they may not be able to stop it.

Seattle is red hot, and their morale is higher than ever. They have a coach whose demeanor suggests that he is half his actual age, they have a veteran Quarterback who has taken this franchise to the Super Bowl, and they have a victory against the New Orleans Saints under their belts.

The Bears have a coach who led a Bears team quarterbacked by Rex Grossman to the Super Bowl (definitely an accomplishment, sorry Rex), and home field for this game. Cutler had a terrible game back in week 6 when Seattle won in Chicago 23-20. In his defense, he was coming off a Concussion the previous week and the Bears offensive line was doing nothing to protect him. He has been much better of late, but still not what I would consider to be sharp.

This will be a good game. The thing to remember about Seattle is that they started off 4-2 before going cold down the stretch. Add fire to ice, ice melts. That cold stretch may very well be behind them, even as they go to the Windy City.

Chicago says they have learned from their early season loss to the Seahawks, and I have no doubt they have. It isn’t generally difficult to learn, especially from losses. But the Seahawks are not the same team they were in week 6. They hadn’t experienced losing seven of their last 10 games, and they don’t want to suffer another loss after convincing themselves that they are past that stage. Pete Carroll already had enough problems in his first NFL stint. He wants this one to be successful, and he wants it to be that way right off the bat, and he has an opportunity to make it successful.

The Bears are coming off two very different games (the shootout with the Jets where each team’s defensive secondary couldn’t seem to do anything right, and a low-scoring game against Green Bay in which a 4th quarter interception thrown by Cutler doomed the Bears to one more regular season loss for the year. Now, coming off a bye, and seeing what Seattle did to New Orleans, I don’t think it matters if the Bears learned from the early season meeting. If they think they know what to expect on Sunday, this could easily turn into the Bears being routed by a team that, even including last week’s victory, still hasn’t won as many games as it has lost this season. I certainly don’t know what to expect in this game, but I’m excited for it.

I’m going to go for it and pick the upset here.

My pick:

Seattle beats Chicago, 27-24

Divisional Round, Pt. II

Four teams are done until (at least) the 2011 season. Eight teams remain, the four winners from last week and the four teams who earned at least one home postseason game and a Wild-Card bye. I decided not to write earlier in the week about the first round games. Instead I will use a brief analysis of the winners as I discuss my picks for this weekend, the Divisional Round of the 2010 NFL Postseason.

Game 2:

Saturday, January 15, 2011
8:00pm – FOX

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay’s 21-16 victory over Vick and the Eagles in their Wild-Card meeting last Sunday was not as close as the score suggests. Sure the Eagles were never out of the game, but the Packers also controlled the ball much better than Philadelphia did. Still, no one should count out Atlanta in tomorrow’s matchup.

Matt Ryan, in his third year, has done what I expected him to do, though perhaps not so soon, which is to take his team to the top of the NFC. With home field advantage, the Falcons will look to make the most of this opportunity to make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since their 34-19 loss to Denver in Super Bowl XXXIII (on January 31, 1999).

However, Aaron Rodgers is playing as good at Quarterback as just about anyone in the league, except possibly Tom Brady, and their defense may very well be the strongest of any remaining playoff team right now. With just three players holding onto the spotlight the Packers can contain the pass and stall any rushing efforts. My pick for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl will almost definitely come from this game. But which of these two teams do I chose to make it to the Conference Championship? This is not an easy pick.

The Packers might be obvious to some, and it appears that to many they are. But don’t rule out the Falcons. Ryan is showing signs of a top-notch NFL Quarterback, and with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez being very capable of getting open for him, the Packers defense will certainly be tested. In addition, Michael Turner rushed for over 1300 yards this season, which is no small task. He is also very protective of the ball. Don’t expect him to put the ball on the ground in this one.

Last week the Packers did a great job of containing Mike Vick, exactly what I expected them to do. But what Vick lacks and Matt Ryan has is a quick release. Vick spent this season learning to be a little more of a pocket passer and a little less of a scrambler. Matt Ryan already has a quick release, so rushing him with Hawk and Matthews may prove to be rather ineffective. And if they are dropping into coverage, or even just acting as spies, Turner should be able to rip off a lot of 3-4 yard gains with the occasional big run mixed in.

Last week Starks had a huge game on the ground for Green Bay. It remains to be seen how much they will use him this weekend, but I think it can be assumed that they won’t make a total switch to Brandon Jackson. When you have a weapon who is just coming into his own, you use him as long as he provides you with an upper hand. The Falcons have a strong rush defense, but their pass defense has some holes. Expect the Packers to use the run more to set up the pass than to actually run through Atlanta. Though the Falcons are known to give up the occasional big play on the ground, more often than not the home run will come through the air, and that is Green Bay’s strong point anyway.

The Falcons will give the Packers hell, but I’m not sure that will be enough. Matt Ryan clearly has what it takes to be very successful in the NFL, but he may have to wait another year or two before taking Atlanta to the top.

My pick:

Green Bay beats Atlanta, 34-24

Divisional Round, Pt. I

Four teams are done until (at least) the 2011 season. Eight teams remain, the four winners from last week and the four teams who earned at least one home postseason game and a Wild-Card bye. I decided not to write earlier in the week about the first round games. Instead I will use a brief analysis of the winners as I discuss my picks for this weekend, the Divisional Round of the 2010 NFL Postseason.

Game 1:

Saturday, January 15, 2011
4:30pm – CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ravens scored a convincing 30-7 victory last Sunday against the Chiefs in Kansas City and will look to earn another big road victory against division rival Pittsburgh in another postseason game. Kansas City was never really in the game last weekend. Flacco looked good in one of his better games of the season, and Cassel didn’t. But the reason Cassel didn’t look impressive was because of the Ravens defense. They forced five turnovers, three of them Matt Cassel interceptions.

The defense continues to be the strong side for Baltimore, but their offense isn’t looking too shabby either. Though not at the level of some other NFL offenses, the Ravens have been playing very well on both sides of the ball in their past five games, all of them victories. But the Ravens focus this week has been on the loss they suffered just before these five straight wins. The last team to beat them is the same opponent they take on this weekend, but last time Pittsburgh got it done in Baltimore. Now the Ravens have to find a way to beat their division rival at Heinz Field, which is very doable, as shown by their week 4 victory in Pittsburgh.

Don’t expect too much to be different than the two regular season meetings between these two teams. This very well could be another game where neither team scores more than 20 points. It will no doubt be another defensive battle as it always is with these two teams. They have two of the best defenses in the league and they know their opponents better than just about anyone knows them.

The decisive factor in this game could very easily turn out to be Ben Roethlisberger. When you have two defenses like these, you know two things: 1) the ground game is going to be very hard-pressed to get anything going, and 2) the Quarterbacks are going to have to be the ones to lift their team to the Conference Championship game.

Joe Flacco has done it before, but not when Big Ben is directing the Steelers offense. He came close in the narrow week 13 loss, but a decision to pass late in the game that lead to a Flacco fumble forced by Troy Polamalu gave Roethlisberger enough time to throw the winning touchdown pass with under three minutes left.

I’m going to say it now, before I even give my score prediction, so I can defend my opinion briefly. I think the Steelers will win. Flacco is much easier to rattle than Roethlisberger and I think that is what this will come down to. The chances of the Ravens defense shaking up Ben before the Steelers defense gets to Flacco is small. This may sound funny, but I think if the Ravens opt to kick the ball off to start the game, they may have a better shot of winning. Certainly there are too many other factors to say that this could be a make or break decision, but here is my thinking on this. Giving the ball to Roethlisberger before Flacco means that Ben will have had the ball one more time than Flacco throughout the first half. This gives the Ravens one more opportunity before the Steelers each time to get to Roethlisberger and if they can do so before Flacco gets rattled, it could swing the advantage toward Baltimore.

(I apologize for that last paragraph, I know that was a bit difficult to read as I had trouble reading it myself, but I can’t figure out a better way to word it.)

My pick:

Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, 20-14

Friday, January 7, 2011

Wild-Card, Pt. IV

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 4:

Sunday, January 9, 2011
4:30pm - FOX

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

This will likely be not only the most watched game, but also the most exciting game of the first round of this year’s postseason (though, as you will see by my prediction, the score may not suggest it). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are just now hitting their stride, and over the past few weeks no one has known which Eagles team was going to show up. Michael Vick is having an amazing season, but over the past few weeks he has suffered against heavy rushes, and the Packers have the tools to bring just that.

With Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson being two of the best pass rushers in the league right now, Vick could be in for a long day. As it is, the Eagles have to be concerned that he won’t be able to get away from rushers with his thigh injury. Vick says that he is 100% but that could just as easily be false information. And if it is not the case, Vick could be taking some shots that may lead to Kevin Kolb being pinned with the job of getting the Eagles past Green Bay.

The Eagles defense hasn’t impressed me recently, and with Rodgers ability to sense what is happening around him in the pocket, he is a very dangerous person to face when your defense is struggling. Rodgers can run with the ball, he can sit and find an open man, and he can beat you play in and play out with whichever direction he goes. The Packers have so many weapons this year for Rodgers to throw to that it is very difficult for defenses to have enough time to get a glove on him. Even hurrying Rodgers is a challenge this year.

The best way to fight this is to forget about rushing Rodgers. Send the standard four rushers and spy Rodgers with one or two linebackers. Send the other five or six defenders back to cover the pass. If Rodgers’ weapons are all covered and there is no running lane for him, there may just be enough time for the defensive line to outlast the Packers’ O-Line.

Meanwhile, the Packers will need to pressure Vick early. Woodson and Matthews will be called on a lot early on, and A.J. Hawk can’t be forgotten about either. Matthews and Hawk are two of the most talented linebackers in football and both have the ability to rush the Quarterback or drop back and shut down any passing options over the middle.

One advantage the Eagles have is their receiving weapons. With DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin both possessing the ability to get open very quickly, whether running over the middle or down field, Vick may be able to get some long throws off before the defense can reach him.

Something the Eagles may want to consider doing is to run some draw plays. The only way to get pressure on Vick is if you send some people around outside, otherwise Vick can scramble out and beat you to the corner. If the Eagles’ offensive line can pick up the Packers linemen rushing from the outside, and leave a couple linemen in front to keep the linebackers away from him, LeSean McCoy would be a dangerous weapon, especially if the Eagles can sell the pass before putting the ball into his hands.

This game will go down to which team’s defense is most effective. The Packers are at a disadvantage in the offensive ground game, but Aaron Rodgers is more than capable of making up for that through the air. How much the Packers will use Brandon Jackson remains to be seen, but Green Bay’s strength is in the passing game and they need to not stray from that. Jackson is a good back, and he should get some touches, but the ball needs to be primarily placed in Rodgers’ hands if the Packers are going to win this game like I think they will. Even with the Packers primarily relying on the pass, I don’t see the Eagles containing the pass.

My pick:

Green Bay beats Philadelphia, 41-23

Wild-Card, Pt. III

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 3:

Sunday, January 9, 2011
1:00pm - CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

This is a tough game to analyze, much less predict. The Ravens have won six of their last seven games. Kansas City, meanwhile, is coming off two blowout losses in their last four games.

If Kansas City is going to win, they need to find a way to get blockers down field and keep Ray Lewis off their running backs. If the Chiefs can’t get Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles rolling on the ground, the Ravens will have plenty of fun defending against Matt Cassel, who has had some great games, but primarily when they succeed in the running game.

Of course, there are also many questions surrounding Joe Flacco. He is a talented player, but he seems to lose confidence easily after very minor mistakes. The more confidence he loses, the poorer he plays. Kansas City’s best chance may come through shutting Flacco and the Baltimore passing game down.

The Ravens’ pass defense ranks in the bottom half of the league, but their rushing defense was number five in the league this year, and that poses a huge problem for Kansas City. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a pass defense that ranks right in the middle of the league, and their rushing defense ranks around the same. This gives Baltimore the advantage on paper.

But games are rarely won as simply as they are on paper. The Chiefs have a great offensive line geared toward the run. They should have little difficulty keeping the Ravens’ defensive line away from the running backs, so Baltimore will be relying on their linebackers to stop the run. On the other side, the Chiefs defensive line has faltered over the past couple weeks, getting pushed around up front and allowing holes to open that even I could find from the backfield.

Ray Rice should have a big day against the Chiefs, and barring any mental breakdowns, will open up opportunities for Flacco to find his receivers, especially over the middle.

A key to winning for the Chiefs will be play action. But they need to be effective in selling the run. They need to get the linebackers biting on the fakes early so they don’t step up as quickly when Kansas City actually does run the ball. In other words, the Chiefs need to find a way to use the pass to set up the run.

The Ravens have a much simpler task. They just need to keep Cassel from making good throws early. If they can do that, they take away the Chiefs’ ability to set up the running game. Kansas City will start relying too much on the run and the Chiefs could fall out of this game early.

My pick:

Baltimore beats Kansas City, 24-14

Wild-Card, Pt. II

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 2:

Saturday, January 8, 2011
8:00pm - NBC

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

This is a tough one to choose. If the Jets are going to win this game, they may have to rely on their defense to do so, which is no easy task when Peyton Manning is the Quarterback you’re facing. With players like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie playing opposite two of Manning’s weapons, the Jets match up better against the Colts than most teams in the NFL. But Manning will look for Jacob Tamme underneath, and then use his accuracy to exploit any missed strides by the Jets’ secondary. As Rex Ryan described his ability, “Manning can go into a play with three options and find a fourth.”

The biggest problem this game poses for the Jets is their offense. Sanchez was looking very good early in the year, then he started faltering and it took some last-second miracles to pull out a few games. Over the past few weeks, he has not been good at all. He has a few decent drives, but he can’t keep it up throughout the game. If the Colts can contain the pass early, they will be able to focus on the run more and more as the game goes on. The Colts worst defense comes against the run, but only when they have to worry about a good pass attack. When they don’t have to worry too much about the pass, they actually do a decent job of containing the run.

In addition, over the past few weeks the Colts have vastly improved their own rushing offense. It has helped Manning get over his mid-season breakdown and he is back to playing lights-out football.

One thing that does bode well for the Jets is the Colts’ inability to put games away. The Colts have not won a game, this season, by more than 10 points since weeks two and three when they beat the Giants by 24 and then the Broncos by 14. This allows for a chance that another last-minute drive could net the Jets a win in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Now, one thing that has kept people’s attention is the belief that, because the Colts had to win out to get into the postseason, it may give them a better chance to make it to the Super Bowl, but that isn’t true. Yes, the last time they won the big game they had to go through the Wild-Card round. But Manning is no stranger to this round of the postseason. Since being drafted, this will be Manning’s 7th Wild-Card appearance. Of his previous six Wild-Card games, he has won just three. Once, they won the Super Bowl after having done so. But each of the other two times the Colts would ultimately lose to the Patriots, who are, for good reason, widely considered the best team in the NFL this year.

In addition, of the two times the Colts have been in the postseason after posting a 10-6 regular season record with Manning at QB, the Colts have lost in the Wild-Card game two times. The Dolphins beat them in the 2000 Wild-Card game in overtime, and the Jets destroyed the Colts in the same round of the 2002 postseason, 41-0.

It is not out of the question for the Jets to come away with a big win, though 41-0 is highly unlikely. But to do so, their secondary needs to be perfect. If they allow Manning one shot down field, he’ll be able to get several more. That’s how Manning plays. One big play gives him such a boost that he finds ways to get more downfield shots, and he does it with ease. The Jets have to shut that down. They also need to get pressure in Manning’s face. The Colts’ offensive line is not filled with great pass blockers. They are only good when the pressure comes from the outside. They can pick that up easily; Manning can step up into the pocket and deliver a great throw. If the Jets rush straight at Manning, the offensive line will break down much more quickly and they will get some hits on the Colts’ prize Quarterback.

Manning has been haunted by history throughout his career. He has historically been a better regular season player than a postseason hero, so the question is: is this the year to put this all behind?

My answer comes easily: no. I have no doubt Manning will be back in the Super Bowl, but not this year. Injuries keep the Colts out of the Super Bowl, and the inability to close out games may keep them from advancing. Ultimately, though, I think Manning will be able to get the Colts to Heinz Field for a divisional round matchup against the Steelers. The Jets cannot play perfect defense, and their offense isn’t strong enough to pick apart the ailing Colts defense.

My pick:

Indianapolis beats New York, 23-13

Wild-Card, Pt. I

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 1:

Saturday, January 8, 2011
4:30pm - NBC

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

All week people have said this will be a blowout, but I have a different take on this game. I agree with people who say the Seahawks do not deserve to be in the postseason, but, as Pete Carroll put it, “I never complained about the BCS system, I won’t complain about this system. There were good teams who should have made it to this point but the system didn’t allow it.”

Though they may not deserve it, the Seahawks earned this spot and this home game fair and square, and don’t expect them to let themselves fall out of this game too early. I still fully expect the Saints to advance to the Divisional round, but I don’t think it will be as easy a game as many people think it will be.

Carroll announced late Thursday that Matt Hasselbeck will be ready to start on Saturday, and this is good news for Seahawks fans. Charlie Whitehurst brought a great amount of athleticism to the Seahawks, but he lacks the overall skills needed of a Quarterback with plans to take his team on a Super Bowl run. Hasselbeck has been there, he has the skills and experience and so matches up well against Drew Brees.

That said, the Seahawks lack something that may leave them at a disadvantage. I felt the Rams would have matched up better against the Saints. Sam Bradford is an incredibly accurate QB and was able to give the Rams some big play ability, something that allows teams to stretch the defense. In addition to Bradford, they had receivers who were able to get open down field and finish off the big plays. While Hasselbeck has the ability to stretch defenses, I don’t think the Seahawks have a receiving corps that will be able to stretch the Saints’ defense. And if they can’t stretch the defense, Marshawn Lynch may find it a bit more difficult to run against New Orleans than it was against St. Louis.

So the Seahawks may have to rely on the passing game. They will need to be very methodical in picking apart Gregg Williams’ defense, finding open receivers underneath the corners, mixing in some runs and play action to keep the defense from keying in too much.

More importantly, if Seattle wants a realistic shot of winning this game, they will need to force turnovers. Brees has been having a lot more trouble this season not committing turnovers than he did last year. When faced with pressure, he is so against taking a sack that he will force passes that, more often than not, end up as interceptions. The Seahawks need to get pressure on Brees and force him into bad throws.

They also need to watch out for screens. With their two leading rushers out due to injury, the Saints will be turning to Reggie Bush, who was injured for a fair portion of the season. He has been back since Thanksgiving, but hasn’t played as well as he did earlier in his career. I don’t expect them to try to run him more than they need to, but they will be looking to get him into the open field, which is one place he is still very dangerous to be. Look for them to set up some screens and maybe play action to the fullback with a quick toss out to Bush out in the flat.

If the Saints want to win this game by a large margin, they will need to find a way to keep people away from Brees. It is the one area of his game Brees struggles in. If he has time and protection, he is all but impossible to stop. His accuracy is deadly, and that applies to any distance down the field. He can pick the defense apart, he can stretch it out, and if there is good coverage he can scramble to pick up a few yards.

Another way to get a big win in Seattle is to get some big plays early and take the 12th man out of the game. Of course, the defense will need to hold back any attacks by the Seahawks or the crowd will be all too ready to get right back into the game. But this is one of the toughest crowds to play as the visiting team against. The Saints have done well away from home with a 6-2 away record this season, but this will be a tougher crowd than anyone the Saints have had to deal with this season.

I don’t see the Saints’ defense being a huge problem, unless they are on the field too long. The offense needs to be converting first downs to keep the defense resting, because the Saints get sloppy opposite the ball when they get tired. That’s when Hasselbeck will be dangerous and the Seahawks may be able to claw back into the game.

As much as I think this will be a closer game than expected, I fully expect the Saints to go in, handle Seattle’s 12th Man, and get the win. Even if Seattle hangs with them early, they don’t have the skills to run with the Saints down the stretch, as long as New Orleans avoids mistakes.

My pick:

New Orleans beats Seattle, 31-20

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Still Sudden Death, but with a Twist

I'm here a day ahead of time for something not related to my Wild-Card predictions. There has been a lot of confusion on the topic of overtime rules changes in the NFL; I myself have been a bit confused as to why the changes were made, and how exactly they worked, since the changes were announces last off-season.

Today, while watching NFLNetwork’s Total Access, they had one of the Co-Chairmen of the NFL Competition Committee, Rich McKay, make an appearance to explain how the rule now works, and why it is more of a "modification" than an all-out rules change.

At the end of March 2010, the NFL announced the changed overtime rules and said they would only be applied to the postseason, all overtime games during the pre- and regular-season would be won/tied in the same fashion as they have in the past; the first team to score by any means wins and if no one scores in 15 minutes, the game results in a tie.

But when the rules change was announced, little was highlighted other than that the team that wins the coin toss could not win with a field goal. But it is a little more complex than that, and after reading exactly what the rule change states, I was even more confused than before.

However, Rich McKay explained how the rule modification works, and because he explained it in such a way that I can now fully wrap my head around it, I wanted to go ahead and put it on here for anyone else who may not have understood exactly how overtime will work for the next few weeks.

For the following scenarios, Team A is the team who wins the coin toss. (For these examples we also assume that Team A has elected to receive (I could not find stats for 2008-2010 regular seasons, but from 2000-2007, in 124 regular season overtime games, only once did the winner elect to kick so this is a likely assumption)). Team B is the team who lost the coin toss and is kicking off to Team A.

Team A returns the kickoff.

Scenario 1: Team A drives the field and score a TD. The game ends, Team A wins.

Scenario 2: Team A drives down field but settles for a FG. They will then have to kick off to Team B:

If Team B turns the ball over (on the return, with a fumble, or with an INT), the game is over, Team A wins.

If Team B drives the field and scores a TD, the game is over, Team B wins.

If Team B drives the field and scores a FG, they must kick off to Team A. The next team to score wins.

Scenario 3: Team A (somehow) is tackled on the kickoff return deep in their own territory and Team B makes a tackle in the end zone for a safety. Team B wins.

Scenario 4: Team B tries an onside kick and recovers. They drive the field and kick a FG. The game is over, Team B wins.

The key term, as Rich McKay noted, is opportunity to possess. Unless Team A scores a TD on the first drive, both teams must have an opportunity to posses the ball. So if Team B tries an onside kick and recovers, Team A has had an opportunity to possess the ball and so Team B can win the game with a FG. In fact, a turnover of any kind means that each team has had an opportunity to possess the ball and so a FG can win in any of those scenarios. So I will give one more scenario to explain a type of turnover not commonly expected.

Scenario 5: Team A is stopped by Team B and is not in field goal range. They choose to punt, but Team B muffs the punt and Team A recovers. Team B is deemed to have had an opportunity to possess the ball and so Team A can win with a FG.

Hopefully this is as clarifying as it was for me when McKay appeared on NFL Total Access. If not you can comment with questions and I would be more than happy to answer.

Also, for a direct explanation of the rule modification by Rich McKay himself, the link to his appearance on Total Access is at the following URL:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-playoffs/09000d5d81d7d721/Modified-sudden-death-rules-for-playoffs?module=HP_video

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Introduction

My name is Cory Puffett. I had a blog a few months ago and have discontinued it. After talking to a couple professional journalists about blogging, it was advised that my blog(s) should be more specified. Where "Amateur Sports Analysis" covered my thoughts on the MLB, NFL, and even, from time to time, the NBA, this blog will focus exclusively on the NFL.

Please keep in mind that I am a Washington Redskins and Indianapolis Colts fan. So while I will be trying to remain as unbiased as possible in my posts, please keep this in mind before attacking my thoughts as being biased. There will be times that these biases may be shown, and, as Kevin Blackistone told me, there should be an element of bias in a blog since it is a person's opinion on what they want to talk about.

With that in mind, I will be trying to keep things as unbiased as possible. My first real post will be this Friday, when I post my Wild-Card predictions. Following are the games to be played this weekend in the first round of the 2010 NFL Postseason.

Saturday, Jan. 8, 2011:

4:30pm ET - NBC
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

8:00pm ET - NBC
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, Jan. 9, 2011:

1:00pm ET - CBS
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

4:30pm ET - FOX
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

One last note, come baseball season, I will be starting an MLB blog. I will not create an NBA blog, but may consider using my "Amateur Sports Analysis" blog for posts that are not appropriate for this or my MLB blog. My NFL and MLB blogs will be primarily to cover games (predictions/results) and teams, but likely not individual players. So if things happen involving individual players, I will likely use my old blog for that, so follow all my blogs to know when I'm posting new stuff.

Ciao 'til Friday.