Monday, December 29, 2014

2014 NFL Afterword



Cory Puffett

It’s been almost eleven months since I’ve written a non-fantasy football blog post, and it’s with a very different perspective that I write this one.

I spent the 2013 season writing almost every single day, whether it was recapping or previewing games, trying to give you the low-down on the most important news of the week, or keeping you in the loop on my fantasy football league during it’s inaugural season.

Last year was the most fun I’ve had blogging about the NFL, and part of that was because my co-hosts on Football Freaks contributed to my blog from time to time. It’s the closest I’ve come to feeling like a professional NFL analyst.

This year I needed the time off from writing. I switched my college major and needed to get and stay on track with schoolwork. Hopefully I can return near last year’s production in 2015, but that’ll be determined at a later date.

In the mean time, I watched plenty of football this season, but not like last year.

Last year I watched football all day every Sunday and I would catch a lot of the games I missed on NFL Game Rewind. I haven’t gotten around to watching games that weren’t televised here this season, so I have a vastly different perspective when looking back on the regular season than I did at this time last year.

The 2014 season was certainly interesting, but it felt strange. My focus for most of the season was on fantasy football, so rather than analyzing teams every week, I was focused on individual players. I spent more time focusing on my team, the Redskins, rather than the rest of the league.

Of course, I was very in tune with what players were doing from one week to the next, but most weeks I couldn’t tell you which teams were really gelling and which were pretenders.

That said, there are a few things I do want to bring up in closing the 2014 season.

1. Romo haters can find someone new to harass

I still have Aaron Rodgers slated as my MVP, but Tony Romo is a very close second. Against the Redskins on Sunday he threw his first and only December interception of 2014. He finished the year with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions to go with a completion percentage of 69.9, more than three percentage points higher than any other season of his career in which he played at least half the season.

Obviously his haters won’t find a new target, they can come up with all kinds of things to say about the 2014 edition of Romo. He had the best offensive line in football, true. He had DeMarco Murray, true. He had Dez Bryant, true. But tell me your MVP favorite and I’ll give you another player with plenty of guys around him.

2. Peyton Manning is on the decline

Personally, I think the same can be said for Tom Brady, but after the way he rebounded earlier this season, I’m going to wait on that one. Peyton, however, seems to be a different issue. Kurt Warner argues that Peyton isn’t really declining, the Broncos are just focusing too much on the run game and are taking Manning out of his rhythm.

While Warner’s statement may have some merit, this is the best regular season quarterback of all time we’re talking about. Some would argue, and I myself have in the past, that he is the greatest quarterback of all time. He has never consistently thrown a tight spiral, but I can’t remember the last time he had a four- or five-game stretch with as many ducks as he’s thrown these past several weeks.

I’m not counting the Broncos out this postseason, but I have a feeling that if they manage to get back to the Super Bowl, it will be due to their run game and a defense that is much better than it was in 2013.

3. Seattle is no Super Bowl lock

Don’t get me wrong; the Seahawks can get there. If I’m not counting Denver out, there’s no way I can count out Seattle and still have any shred of merit as a football analyst. Seattle’s defense is every bit as good as it was last year. I’ve seen some inconsistencies that are a bit concerning, but the talent is all there and I have to believe they’ll pull it together in their playoff games.

But the offense is more than a little concerning. From what little I’ve seen of them, mixed with studying score sheets, this seems to be one of the more inconsistent units in the NFL. Obviously they had some issued early in the season, but even over the past month it seems like they’re hit or miss. I haven’t seen enough to say whether it’s play calling or Russell Wilson or something else, but even with the road to Super Bowl XLIX going through the pacific northwest, I’m not ready hand it to them.

4. Joe Flacco had a very solid 2014 season

I’m still hesitant to give him too much credit because of how quickly Baltimore fans are to take it to the bank. He’s still not elite.

However, I have to give credit where it is due and this was probably the second best season he’s had to date. Flacco set a career high for touchdown passes with 27 and threw just 12 picks. He even had eight games without an interception and, granted it was against Tampa Bay, a five-touchdown game. I don’t put much stock into his career-high 67.27 QBR because I’m not a fan of the stat, but his 90.9 passer rating was the second best of his career.

I’m not sold on Baltimore for the playoffs, but that’s mostly because of their poor passing defense. Their passing offense sits squarely in the middle of the NFL, which is good enough to get to the Super Bowl with a good defense. I just have a few too many questions about that side of the ball to give this team a shot at more than one playoff win.

5. Andrew Luck has not separated himself from the 2013 QBs

It sure seemed like he had during the first half of the 2014 season. In fact, he had separated himself from all QBs. He had the most touchdowns, the most yards, and don’t quote me on it but I think he had the best completion percentage at one point early in the season.

Maybe it was the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw, or maybe it was the sheer number of passes he’d already thrown, but Luck slipped back to the land of the mortals very quickly during the second half of the season. Early in the season he had his share of turnover problems, but his other production more than made up for that. The problem was he only had three turnover-free games all season and his production of late has been poor. After throwing for 300 yards and/or three touchdowns in each of his first ten games, he’s managed to do so just once in his past six, during which time he’s thrown six interceptions and lost four fumbles.


I will preview this weekend’s wild card games later this week. If you’d like to get my take on any other NFL topics, drop me a line and I’ll publish another post. Also, we plan to do an All-Sports Crew podcast this week, so look for a link to that on Facebook, Twitter or Google+ on Thursday or Friday.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

2014 NFL Predictions, Week 17


Cory had a terrific week 16 as he went 13-3 with 15 points and the SNF game was the only Sunday game he missed. He had several ‘hero picks’ where he was the only competitor to get a few of the games correct.

Of course, he still trails the leaders, Eric and Saswat, by quite a bit as both of them broke the 200-point mark and the 160-correct picks mark last week.

Let’s get to this week’s picks. Bonus games, in bold, are worth two points. All others are worth one point.

Bonus games are:
  • Sunday Night Game
  • Division Championships (d)
  • Cory’s Pick (c)
  • Eric’s Pick (e)
  • Saswat’s Pick (s)

Picks for Sunday and Monday games will be added on Saturday, by which time we will hopefully have a prediction podcast available for download on iTunes.

Day/Time
Game
CORY PUFFETT
ERIC
MEYER
SASWAT MISRA
Dec. 28 – 1:00pm
CLE at BAL
Ravens
Ravens
Ravens

DAL at WAS (s)
Redskins
Cowboys
Redskins

IND at TEN
Colts
Colts
Colts

NO at TB
Saints
Saints
Saints

PHI at NYG
Giants
Giants
Giants

BUF at NE
Patriots
Patriots
Patriots

JAC at HOU
Texans
Texans
Texans

SD at KC (c)
Chargers
Chargers
Chargers

NYJ at MIA
Dolphins
Dolphins
Dolphins

CHI at MIN
Vikings
Bears
Vikings
Dec. 28 – 4:25pm
OAK at DEN
Broncos
Broncos
Broncos

ARI at SF (e)
49ers
49ers
Cardinals

DET at GB (d)
Packers
Packers
Packers

STL at SEA
Seahawks
Seahawks
Seahawks

CAR at ATL (d)
Falcons
Falcons
Falcons
Dec. 28 – 8:30pm
CIN at PIT
Steelers
Steelers
Steelers


Along with the three of us, we’ll have Sean Kennedy, Evan Ash and Andrew Perez making picks every week as well, and this year we’ll track each of their picks right here, as well.

Day/Time
Game
SEAN KENNEDY
EVAN
ASH
ANDREW PEREZ
Dec. 28 – 1:00pm
CLE at BAL
Ravens
Ravens
Ravens

DAL at WAS (s)
Cowboys
Cowboys
Redskins

IND at TEN
Colts
Colts
Colts

NO at TB
Saints
Saints
Buccaneers

PHI at NYG
Eagles
Eagles
Giants

BUF at NE
Patriots
Patriots
Patriots

JAC at HOU
Texans
Texans
Texans

SD at KC (c)
Chiefs
Chiefs
Chargers

NYJ at MIA
Dolphins
Dolphins
Dolphins

CHI at MIN
Bears
Vikings
Vikings
Dec. 28 – 4:25pm
OAK at DEN
Broncos
Broncos
Broncos

ARI at SF (e)
Cardinals
Cardinals
Cardinals

DET at GB (d)
Packers
Packers
Packers

STL at SEA
Seahawks
Seahawks
Seahawks

CAR at ATL (d)
Panthers
Panthers
Falcons
Dec. 28 – 8:30pm
CIN at PIT
Bengals
Steelers
Steelers


Finally, this last table will keep everyone in the loop on everyone’s standing throughout the season.


CORY
ERIC
SASWAT
SEAN
EVAN
DREW
Wk 17 Record
10-6
10-6
9-7
11-5
13-3
8-8
Week 17 Points
13
14
11
15
18
10
Total Record
160-95-1
173-82-1
169-86-1
162-93-1
170-85-1
162-93-1
Total Points
197.5
218
213.5
200
213
205


Keep an eye out for our predictions podcasts. Hopefully we’ll be able to put one out every Saturday throughout the season. If we aren’t able to get one out, you can at least see all of our predictions right here, every week on Puff on the NFL.