Eric’s Picks, Conference Championships

Eric Meyer

We’re down to our final four. Only one new face is still in the hunt for a Super Bowl, while three others are looking for additional jewelry to add to their stashes. Some could argue that this is the “forgone conclusion” weekend, but that’s insulting to the two road teams who have made it this far.

It should be an exciting pair of games as established veterans square off against third-year, up-and-coming quarterbacks who are trying to build their own hall-of-fame legacies. Let’s get to it.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

The Packers got shellacked last time they went up to Seattle to wrangle with the defending championships, 36-16. Of course, that was Week 1. We saw last year that early season routs aren’t a good indicator of outcomes in January.

Last season, the San Francisco 49ers got thumped in Seattle in a Sunday Night bout in Week 2. They responded by playing a tight game in the NFC Championship and coming within one Richard Sherman “best corner in the game” play (and later rant) from heading to their second straight Super Bowl. It should be pretty obvious not to write off the Packers.

Here’s another oft-ignored point regarding Seattle: Stanton, Kaepernick, Sanchez, Kaepernick, Lindley, Hill and Newton. These are the seven quarterbacks that Seattle has faced since their loss to the Chiefs, during their supposed “rejuvenation.” None of those guys are elite. Over half of those guys aren’t even legitimate starting quarterbacks.

I have no doubt that Seattle’s defense has improved to levels similar to last season, but some people are failing to take the competition into consideration. Aaron Rodgers is more valuable than those six guys combines. He’s going to make some plays. I’m grabbing these points and running.

I think Seattle wins this game. Russell Wilson is one of the most hotly debated quarterbacks in the league. Some people thing he’s a game manager who rides his run game and defense to wins. I’m not in that camp. Wilson is one of the best playmakers in the NFL. He turns losing plays into big gains. He bails out his line when protection breaks down by scrambling and then making smart decisions outside of the pocket.

Wilson can hit you with absolute backbreaking plays just when you think you’ve turned the tide. Seattle’s defense is great and will keep the score relatively low, but Wilson will be the difference in this game. He’ll be heading to his second straight Super Bowl, where he and his Hawks will be favored to repeat.

Eric’s Pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 28

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

This is an interesting matchup. Andrew Luck vanquished his predecessor last week and now he has an opportunity to eliminate his predecessor’s longtime nemesis. Unfortunately, Luck has had less success than Manning ever had against the New England Patriots.

The Colts put on a quality performance against Denver last week. They shut down the Broncos’ passing attack and put the onus on a washed-up Peyton Manning to beat them deep. He failed and the Colts came away with the win. It’s a big confidence booster and I’m sure the Colts will feed off of that heading to Foxboro.

But let’s be real here. Andrew Luck played pretty well. Not great. Not badly. He was okay. He wasn’t superman. He didn’t put the team on his back. He didn’t play flawless football. He threw two picks that turned out to be harmless, but very easily could’ve hurt his team.

On defense, the Colts played, again, pretty well. Vontae Davis played the game of his life. They took advantage of Manning’s noodle arm. What they didn’t do was stop the run. They still allowed C.J. Anderson to get 4.4 yards per carry. They failed to tackle him on Denver’s not-so-season saving drive where Anderson was contacted five yards behind the line of scrimmage and slipped three Colts defenders for a first down conversion on 4th & 1.

There are still holes on this Colts team. The Patriots have a much tougher team than Denver, and a much better quarterback at the moment. New England has hammered the Colts with their rushing attack each of the last two times they’ve met. They’ve been able to do pretty much whatever they want at the line of scrimmage. And if the Colts decide to stack the box to stop the run, they’ll just have to deal with a guy named Tom Brady.

Andrew Luck will have his moments, but ultimately New England will prevail and play for their fourth Super Bowl title.

Eric’s Pick: Indianapolis 24, New England 38

Puff’s Picks, Conference Championships

Cory Puffett

After a perfect opening weekend and a 6-0 start to my playoff predictions, my hope for a Joe Flacco postseason (11-0 prediction record) was dashed when the Cowboys and Broncos both lost last Sunday.

Now I’ll try and build on my 6-2 start to the playoffs with the games on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

This has definitely been the more difficult of the two game for me to make up my mind about. The obvious choice is the Seahawks. They have almost everything going for them.

They have the best home field advantage in the NFL. They won the Week 1 meeting between the two teams, and teams in Seattle’s position this Sunday are 6-0 historically. The Seahawks have Beastmode and the Legion of Boom.

So why am I so hesitant to pull the trigger on them? The simple answer is Aaron Rodgers, but the real answer goes beyond him.

Aaron Rodgers has one of the best young running backs in the league with him. If there was anything the Packers were saving him for when they were giving the reps Eddie Lacy deserved to James Starks early in the season, it would be for this moment.

The receiving corps Rodgers has is maybe the deepest in the league. He has one of the best 1-2 combos in Nelson and Cobb and we saw last week against Dallas that Rodgers has no problems getting the ball to the wide receivers and tight ends buried on the Green Bay depth chart.

We all know about Seattle, so I’m not going to go into detail about them. They struggled a bit out of the gate, but they’re back to the same form they were last postseason. This is, again, a legit championship contender. But of the three other teams left, Green Bay has the best tools with which to win in Seattle. The other two teams are just lucky they don’t have to go to CenturyLink Field.

The reason I’m sticking with the Seahawks this weekend is because of Mike McCarthy. He’s too unpredictable. Will he take advantage of the fact that Eddie Lacy is not as banged up as most running backs would be at this point in the season? Will he use Lacy to protect his quarterback who, while still playing like the best in the league, is clearly not 100-percent?

I’d like to think that he will, but McCarthy doesn’t always do the intelligent thing. He’s an overrated coach who rode his star quarterback’s coattails to a Super Bowl title and has botched every opportunity to return since then.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Packers, 34-28

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

No trouble here, I’m taking the Patriots all the way. I expected the Ravens to give them some trouble, but ultimate I went with New England last week for reasons I won’t repeat here but you’re more than welcome to go back and refer to last week’s prediction post.

Now that they shook out the rust from the week off, New England should be ready to annihilate Andrew Luck and the Colts. Peyton Manning couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his deep passes last week. I expected the run game to come through for the Broncos, which was the only reason I picked them to win. We’d already seen Manning was falling apart.

The Colts managed to contain C.J. Anderson and so were able to win the football game. But this week they have to go up against a quarterback who suddenly looks to be aging much slower than the Sherriff.

Tom Brady doesn’t have the deep receiving corps that Manning has, but at this point in time he has the better arm. More importantly, he’s created depth by finally getting on the same page with Danny Amendola. Factor in the depth in the backfield and the great secondary, and I don’t see anyway New England loses at home unless Bill Belichick goes senile and decides he’d have a better chance with Jimmy Garoppolo under center and Michael Hoomanawanui as the play caller. (Yeah, I just wanted to say Hoomanawanui. What a name.)

Puff’s Pick: Patriots over Colts, 35-10

Divisional Round Afterword, Part II

Aaron Rodgers fought through an injured calf to deliver a terrific
divisional round performance in Sunday's win over Dallas.

Cory Puffett

Dallas at Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers will finish the season either next week in Seattle or two weeks later in Arizona. In any case, he ends the year without a home interception for the second season in a row.

After an excellent early drive by the Packers, largely on the shoulders of Eddie Lacy, the Packers let their lead slip away as the Cowboys went on two straight touchdown drives and held the lead until the fourth quarter.

Both teams played excellent games. The time of possession was virtually identical. Aaron Rodgers and DeMarco Murray each lost one fumble. The Packers were a little sloppy with the penalties, but otherwise this was everything a fan could’ve wanted from a divisional playoff game.

The play that will be talked about ad nauseam is the overturned 4th down reception by Dez Bryant near the goal line. Every time I see the replay my opinion changes. At one glance it looks like the Calvin Johnson rule. The next glance makes it look like Dez took three steps (while falling) and made a football move to reach the ball out to the goal line before the ball hit the ground and momentarily came loose.

The play was called a completed catch on the field and overturned on a challenge by Mike McCarthy, who had not won a challenge all season. It’s a very close play and I still feel that the right call would have been to stick with the call on the field. The officials felt differently.

In any case, the Packers will travel to Seattle for the NFC Championship game next Sunday. It will be their first appearance in the league semifinal since 2010.

Vontae Davis narrowly missed this interception in the end zone, but he
deflected three passes and helped Indy stifle Denver's offense.

Indianapolis at Denver

The Broncos got beat for a variety of reasons. Firstly, they came out with a very poor game plan. It looked eerily similar to the one they used in a losing effort in last year’s Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks – a lot of screens and short passes with very few shots down the field.

Because everything was short, the Colts had no trouble containing C.J. Anderson for most of the first half.

A second reason for the loss was Denver’s inability to adjust at halftime. They came out of the break trying and failing to make the same things work that the Colts had shut down with so much ease early in the game.

Sure the receivers didn’t play that great and Demaryius Thomas made some inexcusable drops on two screen plays in particular, but the third and most important reason for the loss was Peyton Manning.

You all know I hate to throw him under the bus for anything, but he played a very poor game Sunday evening. He is as close to an offensive coordinator as any player has been in the last fifty years in the NFL, so it is as much his responsibility to adjust the game plan to fit various situations as it is his coaches’ jobs. The few times he did try and stretch the field, he overthrew his receivers, giving the Colts even more reason to focus their attention within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

The Colts deserve all the praise they’ll get this week because they did play a very sound game, especially defensively. But keep in mind that a big part of that was Denver’s inability to make Indianapolis’s job challenging.

The Colts will travel to Foxboro to play the Patriots next Sunday and will need another big game from their defense to knock off the AFC’s top seed to earn a Super Bowl birth.

Eric’s Picks, Divisional Round

Eric Meyer

Goodbye, play-in games, hello real playoffs! We finally have the best teams going at it as the NFL hits its apex for the season. The divisional round is the marquee football experience, with four games over two days that decide who will get to play for conference titles and a trip to the Super Bowl. There are lots of high spreads this week, so let’s get to it.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) at New England Patriots

Saturday, January 10, 4:35pm – NBC

I wrote a piece earlier this week discussing the narrative vs. reality, and I think it’s more applicable for this matchup. All week you’ll hear from Ravens fans, the media, and even Patriots fans that Joe Flacco has Tom Brady’s number (which is weird because Tom Brady doesn’t play defense).

In three playoff matchups during the Flacco era, the Ravens have outplayed New England in three of them and won two out of three, all in Foxboro. So what’s wrong with thinking that the Ravens will go and do it again? Oh, just the small detail of these being completely different teams.

The Ravens of 2012 had Ed Reed. They had Ray Lewis and Paul Kruger. They also had a fellow named Anquan Boldin and another guy named Rice. Meanwhile, the Patriots have completely turned their defense around. Their secondary is phenomenal and their linebackers have come into form as well.

For the first time in this new “rivalry,” the Patriots are coming into the matchup with a better defense than Baltimore. They also have a stronger offense, even with significant improvements from the Ravens this season.

I think the Ravens can win this game. I’ll even say that they’re the only team in the AFC that has a shot at beating New England in Foxboro, but not because of what they’ve done before. They have the front seven to make the Patriots one-dimensional and the pass rushers to get Brady off the spot.

That being said, the Ravens’ secondary is still a major problem and they have no answer for Gronkowski. They’ll also have a much more difficult time throwing downfield and drawing flags with New England’s tough secondary, which is a must if they’re going to be successful. It’ll be a hard-fought battle, but I think New England comes out on top.

Eric’s Pick: Baltimore 17, New England 27

Carolina Panthers (+11) at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 10, 8:15pm – FOX

Holy cow, what a big spread! Seattle is an 11-point favorite against a team that it only beat 13-9 in the regular season? Who would take Seattle to cover that spread?!

I would.

Carolina played the Seahawks close at home last year. They did the same this year. Now they’re going on the road. Their five-game winning streak is a mirage. They beat up four straight bad teams and then Ryan Lindley. We’re talking about the defending Super Bowl Championship here, at home, in full flight defensively.

Cam Newton will struggle just like he did against Arizona, but this time his defense won’t be able to bail him out against a much better playmaker at the QB position.

I’ve always believed that, no matter what the spread is, only take the points if you think the underdog has a legitimate chance of winning the game. I can’t say that about the Panthers right now. I think Seattle wins this on in a romp.

Eric’s Pick: Carolina 13, Seattle 34

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 11, 1:05pm – FOX

This is a brutal matchup to pick. Dallas went 8-0 on the road while Green Bay was perfect at home. It’s a real clash of the titans. Aaron Rodgers is a go on Sunday, but a slight tear in his calf will limit one of his best assets: his ability to pass outside the pocket.

This isn’t all doom and gloom, of course. Rodgers is an excellent pocket passer in his own right and can definitely win if the majority of his passes come between the tackles. But what looked like a slam-dunk pick has been made much tougher with the news of Rodgers’s ailment.

I’m going to stick with Green Bay in this game. Dallas’s offense is potent, but the Packer defense doesn’t get enough credit for its ability to make big plays, especially at home. The Cowboys will compete and I expect Romo to play well, but I still think Rodgers is able to pick apart that Dallas defense enough to keep the game in favor of the Packers.

Eric’s Pick: Dallas 27, Green Bay 35

Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, January 11, 4:40pm – CBS

When I saw the line for this game, I knew immediately that I was taking the points. Peyton Manning has looked like a complete shell of himself out there while Andrew Luck continues to look as rugged as ever.

I don’t think Indianapolis is getting the credit it deserves going into this matchup, as it seems most people have written this game off as a no-brainer. Denver is going to win.

I’m very tempted to go the opposite direction. The Broncos looked pretty bad against quality competition down the stretch of this season. They got blown out by New England and got handled by Cincinnati despite the Bengals’ best efforts to give the game away.

With all that said, I can’t pick the Colts to win this one outright. The Broncos are relying on their rushing attack more in lieu of Manning’s struggles, and the Colts’ run defense is non-existent. Indianapolis also has no running game, which could lead to trouble with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware pining their ears back.

Denver is overall the better team, and playing at home. Even with Luck’s game and Manning’s decline, the battle of the horses goes to the Broncos.

Eric’s Pick: Indianapolis 27, Denver 31

Puff’s Picks, Divisional Round

Cory Puffett

One round down and, as Eric says, the real playoffs begin now. Four of the eight remaining teams won last week. This round will still be tough to predict though because the other four teams didn’t have to play last week.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Saturday, January 10, 4:35pm – NBC

I did pick the Ravens to win last week against Pittsburgh, but I’ll be the first to tell you it was a shot in the dark. I couldn’t pick four home teams to win because it never happens. Of the four wild card teams, the Ravens had the best chance to win in my opinion, so I took them.

Going into this week I looked at the four games and tried to figure out which road teams have the best chance to win. In my opinion, the Ravens are one of the two teams with the best chance.

Their defense is better now than it was two years ago when they won the Super Bowl, their offense is better, and Joe Flacco has continued his inexplicable playoff hot streak.

That said, I struggle pulling the trigger on the pick because of who they’re playing. Sure they’ve gone up and won two playoff games in New England under John Harbaugh, but this year’s Patriots are 7-1 at home, have a completely healthy Gronk, a very good running game, and a fantastic secondary.

I can see this game going either way, but I have to give the nod to the team with the elite quarterback.

Puff’s Pick: Patriots over Ravens, 17-13

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 10, 8:15pm – FOX

Like the Patriots, the Seattle Seahawks are 7-1 at home. They lost at home to Dallas early in the season, but this is a much different team now. The defense has gotten back to form and though the offense is hard to figure out, Russell Wilson is balling out.

The Panthers have won five in a row and it’s certainly fathomable that they could go up to Seattle and pull out a close one. I’ll be shocked if this game is a blowout.

The reason I have to take Seattle in this game is because of the consistency with which they are able to win the tight contests. Carolina and Seattle, for whatever reason, have been playing very close, low-scoring games the past three years. Every time, Seattle has managed to pull it out.

While I give Carolina more than a fighting chance to win this game, I have to give Seattle the nod to advance to the NFC Championship with a last-minute game-winning touchdown drive.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Panthers, 17-16

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 11, 1:05pm – FOX

I wonder how many times a team that is 8-0 on the road has visited a team that is 8-0 at home in the playoffs? I guarantee you can count the instances on one hand.

That’s what we get this Sunday afternoon when the Cowboys visit Lambeau Field.

This is a nearly impossible game to pick. In addition to the Packers being unbeatable at home and the Cowboys being unbeatable on the road, these are two spectacular teams.

Both teams have outstanding running backs, quarterbacks playing at the top of their game, great receiving corps, and defenses that can lock down their opponents when they have to.

The Cowboys get a lucky break with Aaron Rodgers suffering from a calf tear. He will play, but he’ll be limited. He has shown an ability to play hurt, but even I have to wonder how effective he’ll be over the course of the entire game.

Dallas arguably needed a little luck to even get here, but don’t kid yourself into thinking this team isn’t for real. In my opinion, this is the best team in the playoffs on paper. The only things that can keep them out are the locations of their games and whether they execute their game plan.

Rodgers is just 1-2 at home in the playoffs in his career. That, along with his nagging injury, is enough justification for me to make this my upset pick for this round.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Packers, 27-21

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Sunday, January 11, 4:40pm – CBS

Peyton Manning has not been himself lately. In his last four games he has thrown three touchdowns and six interceptions and averaged fewer than 250 passing yards per game.

Denver has gotten a huge lift from C.J. Anderson, who started the season as the number three running back on the Broncos’ depth chart.

Anderson has exceeded 80 rushing yards in each of his last three games and seven of his eight rushing touchdowns on the season have come in his last four games.

The cold weather may affect Peyton Manning, but as long as he can deliver a few passes at key moments in the game, Denver should have no trouble believing Anderson can carry the rest of the load on Sunday.

The Colts sort of limped into the playoffs. Andrew Luck was really struggling down the stretch. He had turnover issues all year, but as the season drew to a close, he was not delivering enough positive production to make up for his mistakes.

He got back on track last week against Cincinnati, but I still have my doubts about how playoff-ready the Colts are and whether they’ll be able to execute in the altitude without playoff veteran Ahmad Bradshaw available.

Puff’s Pick: Broncos over Colts, 31-17

Wild Card Afterword, Part II

Donte Moncrief had three career touchdown reception entering Saturday,
and he added another to his tally on this third-quarter reception.

Cory Puffett

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

Andrew Luck may have only thrown one touchdown pass, but his performance Sunday afternoon had to have made his coaches very happy. Luck had his first turnover-free playoff game and had his first 300-yard passing game since a late-November home win against the Washington Redskins’ porous secondary.

With injuries to Indy’s top two members of the backfield, Zurlon Tipton stepped up to help Daniel Herron carry the Colts’ run game, and the duo did a fine job of keeping Cincinnati’s defense honest, combining for 96 yards on 23 carries. Luck added 18 rushing yards on a pair of attempts.

There isn’t much good to say about Cincinnati, so I’ll head the proverb and not say anything at all. It will, however, but interesting to see whether the Bengals shake things up in the coming weeks. Despite his 0-4 record in the playoffs I expect Andy Dalton to return as their quarterback for the 2015 season. I’m not as sure about Marvin Lewis, who is now 0-6 in the playoffs as their head coach.

It seems unthinkable that the Bengals could have a new man at the helm next year after making the playoffs five times in the last six seasons, but four straight first-round exits can lead to difficult and sometimes surprising decisions.

While the Bengals start looking toward next season, the Colts will travel to Denver where Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck will meet for a third time, with the head-to-head series split at one game apiece.

DeMarco Murray, the 2014 NFL rushing leader, had 97 yards on 22 touches
Sunday evening against the NFL's number one rush defense.

Detroit at Dallas

No one expected the Cowboys to duplicate their last home performance when they routed the Colts and nearly recorded their first home shutout in team history. Their fans had to be nervous when the team came out as lethargic as they did Sunday evening, though.

The Lions took advantage of some sloppy play for the Cowboys offense and several holes in the defense to build up a 14-0 that they held until the final couple minutes of the first half, when a major defensive lapse allowed Terrance Williams to break free for a 76-yard touchdown reception.

Though the Lions did manage to add a field goal just before the break, they’d clearly lost any momentum at that point.

Neither team came out in the second half looking like a team that deserved to advance, but Dallas slowly built up steam and after a 10-play, 80-yard touchdown drive near the end of the third quarter, it seemed inevitable that Detroit would give this game to the Cowboys.

It’s only fair to bring up the fact that there were one or two questionable calls (or non-calls) by the refs in the fourth quarter that went against Detroit, but there is no question that the team they put out there for the second half did not deserve to win that football game.

That doesn’t change the fact that the refs may have played a bigger part in Dallas’s win than they should have, but I do believe the better team won. The Lions had plenty of opportunities to put the game away on offense and instead fumbled twice on their last possession of the game.

Tony Romo, for his part, shook off a poor start to turn in a very solid playoff performance. Terrance Williams caught two touchdown passes in the game which may help Dallas create a more effective game plan for their game in Green Bay next week, but I’ll get into that later this week.


If you missed my recap of Saturday's wild card action, read it at Wild Card Afterword, Part I.

Wild Card Afterword, Part I

Luke Kuechly's fourth quarter interception sealed Carolina's
first playoff win since January 2006.

Cory Puffett

Arizona at Carolina

Cam Newton praised his defense following Carolina’s victory to open wild card weekend. Newton played a solid game, but he was absolutely right to give credit for the win to his defense.

Sure Ryan Lindley was the opposing quarterback, and sure Andre Ellington couldn’t play Saturday afternoon; but even with that handicap, it’s amazing that Carolina’s defense allowed just 78 yards of total offense to Arizona. That was a team that started the season 9-1 and has offensive guru Bruce Arians at the helm.

I picked Carolina to win and was very close to picking the correct final score (Arizona scored an extra three points), but I had no premonitions of their defense manhandling the Cardinals offense the way they did. Arizona’s two touchdown drives, and I use that term loosely, were a combined 10 plays for 47 yards consuming 4:19 of game time.

Luke Kuechly played a masterful game with 10 tackles, 2 pass deflections and an interception. Carolina may have lifted their season record to just .500, but the defense makes this a dangerous team whether they have to play in Seattle or Green Bay next week.

It didn't matter how much pressure Pittsburgh brought, Joe Flacco shrugged
it off to deliver a terrific performance Saturday night in Pittsburgh.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The later game was as exciting as we’ve come to expect from the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, unlike their last regular season meeting when Ben Roethlisberger tossed six touchdown passes for the second consecutive game.

I survived the 2013 postseason, so I pray I can do it again this year because Ravens fans are about to get very obnoxious. They’ll have to go into New England next weekend, but John Harbaugh has coached the Ravens to playoff victories there before and the team has plenty of reason to believe he can do so again.

Harbaugh first led the Ravens to a postseason win in New England in 2009, thanks in part to Ray Rice setting the tone with an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. Three years later, the Ravens went into Denver to beat Peyton Manning in his first season back from injury and then won in New England a week later en route to the team’s first Super Bowl victory since 2000.

The Ravens twice lost playoff games in Pittsburgh during Harbaugh’s first five years with the team, but they returned to the Steel City with a vengeance on Saturday. They didn’t blow the Steelers off of Heinz Field, but they sure came close to it.

Justin Forsett had been inconsistent over the last quarter of the season, but the team hoped he could duplicate his 119-yard performance from last week against Cleveland. That wasn’t the case as he lost a fumble and only managed 36 yards in the contest.

Fortunately for the Ravens, their defense played great and Joe Flacco continued his playoff hot streak. The 7th-year pro out of Delaware has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last five playoff starts and had a terrific game Saturday in Pittsburgh.

It’s too early to make predictions for the divisional round, but it’s safe to say I’m going to be wrestling with Ravens vs. Patriots all week as I try to make sense of that matchup and find a definitive reason to pick either team to win that game.

Puff’s Picks, 2015 Wild Card

Happy New Year, everyone! Thursday evening I watched the first ever college football playoffs. The first game was more than a little disappointing. I was pulling for Jameis Winston and the Seminoles, but the main disappointment was with how poorly Florida State played in the second half. They didn’t even put up a fight.

Thankfully, the late game offered much more excitement. I generally can’t stand college football, and the touchdown catch for OSU at the end of the first half annoyed me more than a little (seriously, NCAA, you only need one foot in bounds? Is this grade school?). But it was a fun game and it’s nice to see four teams get to compete for the chance to play in the national championship game.

Now it’s time for the real tournament to begin, the professional one. The clock doesn’t stop for a first down and you better get that second foot down in bounds.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Someone had to win the NFC South. The Panthers finally emerged from a pack of teams that didn’t seem to want to play in January and earned a playoff birth with a four-game winning streak to end the season.

Whether the Panthers earned the right to host a playoff game is another matter. Maybe in 2016 they wouldn’t be hosting, but this year they are. The Arizona Cardinals are a depleted bunch with their first- and second-string quarterbacks both injured. They do not have Andre Ellington available.

If there is any good news for the Cardinals, it’s that most of the defensive players who appeared on their injury report have been able to practice in some capacity this week.

Sadly for them, I don’t think that will be enough. The Arizona offense doesn’t bother me at all if I’m Carolina, and the Panther offense has hit their stride lately, despite Kelvin Benjamin have some trouble catching the ball lately.

I hate to pick against Bruce Arians, I think he’s one of the best head coaches in the NFL right now. But I don’t think Arizona is healthy enough to pull out this game on the road.

 Puff’s Pick: Panthers over Cardinals, 27-13

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

As much as Ravens fans annoy me and I’m not thrilled that their team made the playoffs, I am thrilled that we get a third matchup between these two teams this season. This is my favorite rivalry in the NFL.

The only disappointing thing about this weekend’s matchup is that the two teams aren’t at full strength. The Ravens will be without starting left tackle Eugene Monroe as well as rookie defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan.

The Steelers are lucky to have most of the players on their injury report listed as probably. The one exception is second year running back Le’Veon Bell, who recorded the second most rushing yards in the NFL this year behind DeMarco Murray. Bell was also the only player in the top 15 for rushing yards this season without a fumble and had the most receiving yards in the NFL from the running back position.

Early in the week, when Bell’s status was still unknown, I was leaning heavily toward Pittsburgh winning this game. The Ravens have been inconsistent, even as Joe Flacco has quietly put together the second-best season of his career. Then again, the Steelers have had some inconsistencies themselves.

Pittsburgh is playing at home, but given Bell’s status and unknown quality of depth at the running back position I have to give the nod to the Ravens this weekend.

Puff’s Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-23

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

This might be my least-anticipated game of the weekend. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game under Marvin Lewis and the Colts have not impressed lately. Their near-shutout loss to Dallas in week 16 aside, Andrew Luck has been turning the ball over a lot lately.

To be fair, Luck had been turning the ball over a lot all season. He has only recorded three turnover-free games all year, and he three seven interceptions in two playoff games a year ago. But early this season and even last postseason he made up for the turnovers by racking up tons of passing yards and a slew of touchdown passes. He led the NFL with 40 of them this season.

He hasn’t kept up that trend in the past few weeks, though, and so I expect this to be an ugly game with neither team truly winning it. It’ll come down to which team does more to lose it.

The good news for the Colts is that they’re playing at home and are much healthier than the Bengals. With A.J. Green doubtful and two other wide receivers out, Cincinnati may have to rely solely on Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard on offense. That won’t be enough, even if Cincy’s defense forces a few mistakes by Luck.

Puff’s Pick: Colts over Bengals, 20-14

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The Lions are very lucky that Ndamukong Suh’s suspension was overturned and he will be permitted to play this Sunday. I understand the decision, though I certainly don’t agree with it.

I don’t think it will mean much, though. The Lions offensive unit is equipped with more talent than they’ve ever had. Their rookie tight end is a little shaky, but Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are excellent runners with a solid backup in Theo Riddick. Meanwhile, Golden Tate has finally given the team the viable second receiver they’ve needed to keep defenses honest rather than letting them focus their entire secondary on Megatron.

Yet this offense has failed to gel on a consistent basis. They looked great in their season opener against the Giants, but they’ve only shown flashes of that since.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys avenged their home loss to the Redskins with a huge win in week 17. Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray both throughout and came out uninjured and looking terrific. Any concerns about Murray’s hand were put to rest.

Even the talent on Detroit’s defense will not be enough to stop Dallas, and I have no problem saying that the Cowboys will shut down Detroit’s offense for the majority of the game.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Lions, 30-17

Puff’s Points, Pro Bowl

If no team steps forward and volunteers for next season, the NFL
will assign a team to participate in HBO's Hard Knocks next Summer.

No, I’m not going to write a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about the Pro Bowl. I’m excited for Sunday’s game because of the new set-up, but because I don’t know what to expect there really isn’t much to write about leading up to it.

This blog post is titled the way it is so that if I can come up with some more interesting topics and facts to address next week, I’ll have another title available.

So let’s get to what has piqued my interesting this week.

1. Battle of Ones

Super Bowl XLVIII will mark the 10^th time the top seeded teams from both conferences will meet with the Lombardi Trophy on the line.

The NFL implemented a seeding structure the playoffs following the 1975 regular season. In five of the first ten Super Bowls after that, the top seeded teams from both conferences made it all the way to the finish line.

But this year marks just the second time it has happened since 1993. The other was in 2009 when Peyton Manning’s Colts met the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. Now Manning’s Broncos will look to avoid meeting the same fate against the Seattle Seahawks.

2. More New Rules Coming

Roger Goodell announced on Monday that the NFL may explore eliminating the PAT (point after touchdown) attempt, making touchdowns worth seven points and then possibly implementing a play from scrimmage that would give an eighth point if successful. You could elect not to attempt the extra play and keep the seven points or try for the eighth point and go back to six if you fail to convert it.

But I don’t understand why we need to change anything about the PAT. They are not really automatic. Sure there were only five misses this year and there were only five misses last year, but as recently as 2009 we had 20 missed PAT’s in a single regular season, and that followed a 2008 regular season in which only six PAT’s were missed.

There is some level of skill involved in these kicks. So the only reason that such a chance would be warranted, in my opinion, is if there are a lot of injuries occurring on these plays. I don’t have any official numbers, but I don’t believe there are many injuries on PAT or field goals attempts.

3. Review Changes On the Way

Even as Roger Goodell has me scratching my head on one possible rule change, he has me praising the league for considering another. Penalized hits may soon become reviewable. We have seen a number of legal hits draw penalty flags in the past couple seasons. One of the most memorable came when San Francisco visited Seattle during the 2012 regular season.

I haven’t complained too much about these flags. The speed of the game and the league’s emphasis on player safety forces referees to throw the flag for anything that could be considered a borderline illegal hit.

But now we may get the best of both worlds. The refs will still carry out the league’s safety initiative while coaches will be able to ask them to take a second look to confirm whether a given hit is legal or not.

It is important to continue to push player safety, but as defenders try to re-learn how to tackle in order to stay within the rules they should not be penalized for clean hits just because they can be heard from a mile away.

4. Denver Joins Elite Company

The Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots have each been to seven Super Bowls. The Steelers have six wins in eight trips, the Cowboys have five wins in eight trips and the Patriots have three victories in their seven Super Bowl appearances.

Denver’s win on Sunday vaulted them to the seventh appearance in their franchise’s history. The Broncos are 2-4 in the Super Bowl with their wins following the 1997 and 1998 regular seasons, John Elway’s last two seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

5. Hard Knocks

Some of you may remember that during the NFL’s fall meeting a rule was set in place that will allow the league to appoint a team to covered by HBO’s Hard Knocks if no team volunteers.

There are some rules concerning eligibility. If you have a first-year coach, have made the playoffs in the last two years, or have been a subject of the show in the past ten years, the NFL will not appoint you for the show. I am not sure if such teams are allowed to volunteer.

This year’s eligible teams are the Cardinals, Bills, Bears, Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, Steelers and Rams, according to NFL.com.

6. Super Injuries

The Denver Broncos got some good news on Monday when running back Knowshon Moreno’s X-rays came back negative. Moreno suffered a rib injury in Sunday’s game against New England and John Fox listed him as day-to-day this week. With two weeks to prepare and recover, there is no way Moreno will miss Super Bowl XLVIII.

Seattle hopes to have Percy Harvin for the Super Bowl. He did not pass concussion protocol last week and could not participate in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco. Seattle played without him all season and managed just fine without him on Sunday. But if they can clear him and get him working in practice this week he could be a key contributor to their offense next week.

7. Power Rankings

I don’t know how this will work with just two teams, and keep in mind that weather could completely screw with a lot of the components of these rankings. But since I’ve done it all postseason, I decided to go ahead and rank Denver and Seattle against each other in all the same categories that I have been comparing all the playoff teams to each other.

1. Seattle Seahawks (0.827)

2. Denver Broncos (1.024)

My guess is that adverse weather would swing this even more in Seattle’s favor, but there are other factors that will go into this game. Over the next week and a half I will be going back through game film of these two teams’ entire seasons. My official prediction, as usual, will come from Madden, but I will be supporting the outcome of my Madden game with the research I’ll be doing over the next several days.

Deion Sanders and Jerry Rice, along with the selected team captains, will be dividing up this year’s Pro Bowlers to their teams on Wednesday evening. I will write something up later this week about that game.