2016 AFL Draft Grades

With our league’s fourth draft in the books, it’s time to look at each team’s draft and determine who set themselves up with the best chance for success this season.

You don’t win your league at the draft. If you receive a poor grade, it does not mean you cannot move up during the season. But some paths will be easier than others.

We’ll start with the overall draft grades. These are courtesy of Footballguys.com and are based on how likely you are to make the playoffs with good in-season management and are an average of four contributors to the website. I am of the mindset that everyone in our league is able to make above average decisions throughout the season. I also used some data from FantasyPros for these draft grades.

Draft Grade	Team Name	Playoff Chance	FantasyPros*
A+	Saved By the Odell	81%	1199
A+	Raging Pussies	81%	1120
A	Jack Gasses	75%	952
B+	Deez Nuttz	65%	939
B+	Team Awesome	63%	1129
B	Knights of Ren	58%	1110
C+	Dark Avengers	48%	955
C	Duke Blue Devils	43%	1030
C	K söze	38%	998
D	Team Massimini	36%	1084
F	Sorry For Cheating	25%	814
F	Tacoville Liquid Fire	23%	861

*I honestly have no idea how FantasyPros generates their score.

So now that draft grades have been given, I’d like to take a slightly closer look at some of the teams, division by division and give my own opinions, especially where mine differ from the experts.

AFL East Preview

Every year, as of 2015, the AFL East is the division headed by the defending champion. This is a particularly weak division as far as playoff chances go. Defending AFL champ Knights of Ren heads the division with a 58-percent chance of making the playoffs, assuming good in-season management according to Footballguys.com. FantasyPros ranks Knights of Ren 4th in the AFL with the 6th best starting squad and the 2nd best bench.

The Duke Blue Devils are an interesting team. Though FantasyPros ranks their depth in the top half of the league, Derrick Henry is the only late-round pick I really liked for this team. Without a healthy TE to start the season, and with the questions surrounding Andrew Luck, the Blue Devils’ only real chance to make the playoffs would be to win the division.

Though Footballguys.com is down on Team Massimini, I have to say they are probably the biggest threat to the Knights of Ren. The wide receiver position is definitely a weakness coming out of the draft, but it’s one of the easiest weaknesses to mask. With two high-caliber running backs, my top rated quarterback, and probably the best value defense of the draft, it’s no wonder FantasyPros offers a much better outlook than does Footballguys.com. FantasyPros ranks Team Massimini number five in the AFL, including 3rd among starting rosters and 4th for depth.

Sorry For Cheating probably should have cheated. They certainly tried to. Kirk Cousins in the fourth round as one of the first five quarterbacks off the board? A defense in the 9th and a kicker in the 11th? Three tight ends on the roster? Sorry For Cheating has pretty solid wide receiver depth with Eric Decker, Michael Crabtree, Marvin Jones, and Pierre Garçon. Unfortunately, Brandon Marshall and Mark Ingram are his only starting position players I can get real excited about. It’s going to take some unearthly in-season management to scrap together a decent 2016 season.

AFL West

We’ll move right into the division of last year’s runner up, Deez Nuttz. It won’t be an easy road back to the playoffs thanks to an excellent draft by Saved By the Odell. After a lot of success in the AFL’s predecessor, and an okay first year in AFL that culminated in a title game loss, it’s been a rough last couple years for this owner. This may well be Brandon Saunders’s year. Odell Beckham, Jr., A.J. Green, and 2015 standout Doug Baldwin headline the receiver corp. I’m unenthused by the running back corps as a whole, but I like the decision to nab Spencer Ware, who should be getting most of the work until Jamaal Charles is healthy enough to be the bellcow again. A great tight end and an often-underappreciated fantasy quarterback make this my favorite to finish with the best regular season record in the AFL.

FantasyPros and I disagree strongly on Deez Nuttz’s roster. FantasyPros would have you believe Deez Nuttz has a weak starting lineup and great depth. I actually believe the reverse is true. On this roster are my number four quarterback, number six tight end, my number ten and twelve wide receivers, and my number two and seventeen running backs. Not to mention my top rated defense. My biggest concern for Deez Nuttz is that the team may not be able to recover if a serious injury befalls one of these starters.

Footballguys.com clearly does not like K söze’s draft. FantasyPros is a little more forgiving, ranking the team 7th in the AFL for the upcoming campaign, 5th for the starting squad. I’m even more forgiving. Le’Veon Bell will miss the first three games, but rostering DeAngelo Williams essentially nullifies that. Lamar Miller is my third ranked running back this year, so he is very strong at running back. DeMarco Murray will offer solid flex value to start the season, though I don’t think he’ll hold his starting position into the second half of the year. Coby Fleener might be all hype, but I think he has upside to be the TE2 at the end of the year. None of the wide receivers really jump out at me, but there’s a lot of depth there and that’s generally the most important thing at the receiver position as players can skyrocket out of nowhere. I’m not sure this is a playoff team, but that’s less an indictment of K söze than praise for Saved By the Odell and Deez Nuttz.

As for Tacoville Liquid Fire, you have to wonder if they would have been better off not selecting a keeper from the very poor team that was left to Sean Kennedy. He definitely tried to make the most of the situation. Drew Brees was a good selection at quarterback, but he may have reached seeing as Brees has lasted much later in a lot of drafts. I like both Jonathan Stewart and Rashad Jennings at running back, but again at a round or two later for each. Overall there is quite a bit of talent on this team but it seems fantasy teams need to have at least one stud at running back or receiver to make it a playoff team and Tacoville Liquid Fire is lacking that stud.

AFL Central

The final division to look at is the castoffs, the teams nobody likes. Actually, it’s the teams Cory Puffett and William Battle were too scared to face twice. This division should be the strongest from top to bottom, but it certainly was not last year. Based on draft grades, this year should be a fun one to watch in this division.

The Raging Pussies lead the way for the division as far as playoff outlook goes. The regular season champs from a year ago, the Raging Pussies will have an opportunity to repeat that feat this year. Not many fantasy leagues see a team with both Aaron Rodgers and David Johnson, and Eric Meyer managed to get both without really hurting his team elsewhere. Evans and Cooks will be a serviceable receiver due, especially with Jordan Matthews backing them up. Matt Forte could easily be a top ten running back as the lone back for the Jets.

The biggest thing getting in the Raging Pussies way this season will be some very good competition from his division mates. I’m not as excited about the Jack Gasses as Footballguys.com is, especially looking at the quarterback duo of a suspended Tom Brady and a rookie Dak Prescott. Moreover, this roster features another rookie Cowboy at a key offensive position. Though recent studies are showing that multiple players from the same offense can actually improve fantasy team consistency, I’m not convinced that holds for rookies. If this team can be at .500 going into week five, though, Tom Brady and Josh Gordon could make this one of the smartest drafts of the year.

Team Awesome just won’t go away. The winner of the AFL’s first two titles and a playoff-caliber team a year ago, Team Awesome will again contend for a playoff spot in 2016. Though their roster admittedly is not a super exciting roster outside of the wide receiver position, every other key position has solid starting talent and good depth. FantasyPros seems to agree with this. Team Awesome is ranked second in the AFL overall despite being 7th in starting talent because FantasyPros loves their bench players.

I’m very interested to see how the Dark Avengers do this year. I really like the starting talent on the team, as does FantasyPros. I think a combination of Eli Manning and Matt Ryan will actually do pretty well at quarterback, I’m okay with the starting combo of Rawls and Langford at running back, and the starting receivers and tight end are very good. My biggest concern for this team is that there is absolutely no depth at running back. Drafting eight wide receivers and three running backs usually isn’t a great formula for success. Receivers can typically be found pretty easily on the waiver wire. That’s not always the case for running backs. It will take a savvy waiver wire presence to put together a playoff run in this tough division.

My playoff picks for the coming season are:

AFL East Champ – Knights of Ren

AFL Central Champ – Raging Pussies

AFL West Champ – Saved By the Odell

Wild Card – Team Massimini

Remember, it does not benefit you to tank your season. The top seven teams after the consolation ladder get first dibs on where they want to be in next year’s draft order and the loser of the consolation ladder gets whatever is left after they and the winner’s bracket teams pick.

Good luck this season!