Yesterday I published my predictions on every team’s final
regular season record. So today, I’m here to tell you who will represent each
conference in the 2013 playoffs, starting with the AFC. I talked briefly about
these picks on Wednesday’s podcast of The All-Sports Crew. Here are a few more details about my picks.
AFC Postseason
1. Denver Broncos (13-3) – AFC West
Champion, Home Field Advantage
The Broncos are a pretty easy choice to win 13 games or
more. Even if Von Miller is suspended for a few games, and even with Elvis
Dumervil signing with the Ravens, they have one of the better defensive units
in the AFC, and their offense will be the
best in the conference. That, mixed with another easy schedule, will make for
an easy road to home field advantage.
2. Miami Dolphins (11-5) – AFC East
Champion, 1st Round Bye
I can see a million ways the Dolphins can screw this up, but
they have a team that can compete with New England this year, and they have a
slightly easier schedule than their division rivals.
3. Houston Texans (9-7) – AFC South
Champion
The Texans can win as many as 12 games in my opinion. But
with their focus seemingly shifted to finishing the season, we likely will not
see them make as long an early-season run this year as we did in 2012. They
will get caught up in a tough early- and mid-season schedule, but a strong
finish will net them a third straight division title.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) – AFC North
Champion
This one came down to the final two weeks of the season, and
I expect Cincinnati’s home game against Baltimore in Week 17 to be flexed to Sunday
night, where I think home field gives the Bengals an edge and the AFC North
title.
5. New England Patriots (10-6) – 2nd Place
AFC East, Wild Card
The Patriots can certainly win the AFC East, but it will
have more to do with what the Dolphins do down the stretch than it will what
the Patriots do. I respect Tom Brady’s game, but he doesn’t usually perform
well with receivers that he isn’t familiar with. He has lost too many weapons
this offseason, and it will be a struggle even to win 10 games. But it’s Tom
Brady and Bill Belichick, so I can’t very well push them to fewer than
double-digit wins.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) – 2nd Place
AFC West, Wild Card
The Chiefs had one of the best bad teams in 2012, with
multiple pro bowlers. They kept Dwayne Bowe in house and added a quarterback
who will be able to get the ball to their second-best offensive player. With
Alex Smith in house to open up their aerial attack, Jamaal Charles could have a
bigger year than ever on the ground.
Other Contenders
In the AFC East, the Bills have a lot of talent at running
back, but I’m not going to bank on Ryan Fitzpatrick getting back to his
early-2011 form.
The Steelers are a better team than the 6-10 record I
predict for them, but they have a rough schedule and I’m not expecting to see
much better than the disheveled Steelers unit of 2012.
Out West, the Chargers should be playoff contenders, but
they won’t.
The only other three serious contenders I see are the
Ravens, Colts and Raiders. The Ravens lost a lot of pieces this offseason, but
they got Vonta Leach back, which is huge. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will
be enough to make up for all their departures and the devastating loss of
Dennis Pitta for the season to a hip injury.
The Colts also have a tough schedule. The have plenty of
playoff talent on the team, but losing Bruce Arians may be bigger than anyone
wants to think.
As for the Raiders, I love their addition of Matt Flynn at
quarterback, and I expect him to wind up winning the starting job. However, I
have only gotten to see him play one regular season game and some limited preseason
action, so I can’t pick the Raiders with any confidence just yet.
Preliminary Playoff
Predictions
This is only the second year I am doing this. I got one
playoff game correct last preseason, when I predicted the Ravens to win in
Denver (though I picked the opposite the week of that game). I also picked the
Patriots to beat the Ravens last preseason. Everything else got pretty shot out
since the Texans were the only other team I correctly predicted.
Here are my 2013 playoff predictions.
AFC Wild Card
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston
Texans
As much as I like the Chiefs to improve drastically this
season, they can be suspect at times and I think the Texans focus on finishing
will carry over into some strong postseason performances.
New England Patriots
@ Cincinnati Bengals
The Patriots have a better coach and better players. New
England has had some playoff struggles the past several season, save for 2011,
but the Bengals aren’t ready to take the next step.
AFC Divisional
Playoffs
New England Patriots @ Denver
Broncos
I have New England winning their regular season showdown in
Foxboro, but in Mile High, I think Peyton Manning delivers the first playoff
victory for his new team.
Houston Texans @ Miami
Dolphins
The Dolphins, like the Bengals, don’t look to me like a team
ready to make the next step to playoff success. Mike Wallace is a welcome
addition to the offense, but it isn’t enough. Houston wins a close one.
AFC Championship Game
Houston Texans @ Denver
Broncos
Houston says this is a ‘Super Bowl or Bust’ year, but I
don’t think they are a Super Bowl-ready team. Manning gets his third Super Bowl
appearance.
Like last year, I will predict the Super Bowl victor in my
NFC post.
Check back shortly for my NFC playoff picks and be sure to follow
me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.
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