Divisional Round Afterword, Part II

Aaron Rodgers fought through an injured calf to deliver a terrific
divisional round performance in Sunday's win over Dallas.

Cory Puffett

Dallas at Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers will finish the season either next week in Seattle or two weeks later in Arizona. In any case, he ends the year without a home interception for the second season in a row.

After an excellent early drive by the Packers, largely on the shoulders of Eddie Lacy, the Packers let their lead slip away as the Cowboys went on two straight touchdown drives and held the lead until the fourth quarter.

Both teams played excellent games. The time of possession was virtually identical. Aaron Rodgers and DeMarco Murray each lost one fumble. The Packers were a little sloppy with the penalties, but otherwise this was everything a fan could’ve wanted from a divisional playoff game.

The play that will be talked about ad nauseam is the overturned 4th down reception by Dez Bryant near the goal line. Every time I see the replay my opinion changes. At one glance it looks like the Calvin Johnson rule. The next glance makes it look like Dez took three steps (while falling) and made a football move to reach the ball out to the goal line before the ball hit the ground and momentarily came loose.

The play was called a completed catch on the field and overturned on a challenge by Mike McCarthy, who had not won a challenge all season. It’s a very close play and I still feel that the right call would have been to stick with the call on the field. The officials felt differently.

In any case, the Packers will travel to Seattle for the NFC Championship game next Sunday. It will be their first appearance in the league semifinal since 2010.

Vontae Davis narrowly missed this interception in the end zone, but he
deflected three passes and helped Indy stifle Denver's offense.

Indianapolis at Denver

The Broncos got beat for a variety of reasons. Firstly, they came out with a very poor game plan. It looked eerily similar to the one they used in a losing effort in last year’s Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks – a lot of screens and short passes with very few shots down the field.

Because everything was short, the Colts had no trouble containing C.J. Anderson for most of the first half.

A second reason for the loss was Denver’s inability to adjust at halftime. They came out of the break trying and failing to make the same things work that the Colts had shut down with so much ease early in the game.

Sure the receivers didn’t play that great and Demaryius Thomas made some inexcusable drops on two screen plays in particular, but the third and most important reason for the loss was Peyton Manning.

You all know I hate to throw him under the bus for anything, but he played a very poor game Sunday evening. He is as close to an offensive coordinator as any player has been in the last fifty years in the NFL, so it is as much his responsibility to adjust the game plan to fit various situations as it is his coaches’ jobs. The few times he did try and stretch the field, he overthrew his receivers, giving the Colts even more reason to focus their attention within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

The Colts deserve all the praise they’ll get this week because they did play a very sound game, especially defensively. But keep in mind that a big part of that was Denver’s inability to make Indianapolis’s job challenging.

The Colts will travel to Foxboro to play the Patriots next Sunday and will need another big game from their defense to knock off the AFC’s top seed to earn a Super Bowl birth.

Eric’s Picks, Divisional Round

Eric Meyer

Goodbye, play-in games, hello real playoffs! We finally have the best teams going at it as the NFL hits its apex for the season. The divisional round is the marquee football experience, with four games over two days that decide who will get to play for conference titles and a trip to the Super Bowl. There are lots of high spreads this week, so let’s get to it.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) at New England Patriots

Saturday, January 10, 4:35pm – NBC

I wrote a piece earlier this week discussing the narrative vs. reality, and I think it’s more applicable for this matchup. All week you’ll hear from Ravens fans, the media, and even Patriots fans that Joe Flacco has Tom Brady’s number (which is weird because Tom Brady doesn’t play defense).

In three playoff matchups during the Flacco era, the Ravens have outplayed New England in three of them and won two out of three, all in Foxboro. So what’s wrong with thinking that the Ravens will go and do it again? Oh, just the small detail of these being completely different teams.

The Ravens of 2012 had Ed Reed. They had Ray Lewis and Paul Kruger. They also had a fellow named Anquan Boldin and another guy named Rice. Meanwhile, the Patriots have completely turned their defense around. Their secondary is phenomenal and their linebackers have come into form as well.

For the first time in this new “rivalry,” the Patriots are coming into the matchup with a better defense than Baltimore. They also have a stronger offense, even with significant improvements from the Ravens this season.

I think the Ravens can win this game. I’ll even say that they’re the only team in the AFC that has a shot at beating New England in Foxboro, but not because of what they’ve done before. They have the front seven to make the Patriots one-dimensional and the pass rushers to get Brady off the spot.

That being said, the Ravens’ secondary is still a major problem and they have no answer for Gronkowski. They’ll also have a much more difficult time throwing downfield and drawing flags with New England’s tough secondary, which is a must if they’re going to be successful. It’ll be a hard-fought battle, but I think New England comes out on top.

Eric’s Pick: Baltimore 17, New England 27

Carolina Panthers (+11) at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 10, 8:15pm – FOX

Holy cow, what a big spread! Seattle is an 11-point favorite against a team that it only beat 13-9 in the regular season? Who would take Seattle to cover that spread?!

I would.

Carolina played the Seahawks close at home last year. They did the same this year. Now they’re going on the road. Their five-game winning streak is a mirage. They beat up four straight bad teams and then Ryan Lindley. We’re talking about the defending Super Bowl Championship here, at home, in full flight defensively.

Cam Newton will struggle just like he did against Arizona, but this time his defense won’t be able to bail him out against a much better playmaker at the QB position.

I’ve always believed that, no matter what the spread is, only take the points if you think the underdog has a legitimate chance of winning the game. I can’t say that about the Panthers right now. I think Seattle wins this on in a romp.

Eric’s Pick: Carolina 13, Seattle 34

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 11, 1:05pm – FOX

This is a brutal matchup to pick. Dallas went 8-0 on the road while Green Bay was perfect at home. It’s a real clash of the titans. Aaron Rodgers is a go on Sunday, but a slight tear in his calf will limit one of his best assets: his ability to pass outside the pocket.

This isn’t all doom and gloom, of course. Rodgers is an excellent pocket passer in his own right and can definitely win if the majority of his passes come between the tackles. But what looked like a slam-dunk pick has been made much tougher with the news of Rodgers’s ailment.

I’m going to stick with Green Bay in this game. Dallas’s offense is potent, but the Packer defense doesn’t get enough credit for its ability to make big plays, especially at home. The Cowboys will compete and I expect Romo to play well, but I still think Rodgers is able to pick apart that Dallas defense enough to keep the game in favor of the Packers.

Eric’s Pick: Dallas 27, Green Bay 35

Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, January 11, 4:40pm – CBS

When I saw the line for this game, I knew immediately that I was taking the points. Peyton Manning has looked like a complete shell of himself out there while Andrew Luck continues to look as rugged as ever.

I don’t think Indianapolis is getting the credit it deserves going into this matchup, as it seems most people have written this game off as a no-brainer. Denver is going to win.

I’m very tempted to go the opposite direction. The Broncos looked pretty bad against quality competition down the stretch of this season. They got blown out by New England and got handled by Cincinnati despite the Bengals’ best efforts to give the game away.

With all that said, I can’t pick the Colts to win this one outright. The Broncos are relying on their rushing attack more in lieu of Manning’s struggles, and the Colts’ run defense is non-existent. Indianapolis also has no running game, which could lead to trouble with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware pining their ears back.

Denver is overall the better team, and playing at home. Even with Luck’s game and Manning’s decline, the battle of the horses goes to the Broncos.

Eric’s Pick: Indianapolis 27, Denver 31

Puff’s Picks, Divisional Round

Cory Puffett

One round down and, as Eric says, the real playoffs begin now. Four of the eight remaining teams won last week. This round will still be tough to predict though because the other four teams didn’t have to play last week.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Saturday, January 10, 4:35pm – NBC

I did pick the Ravens to win last week against Pittsburgh, but I’ll be the first to tell you it was a shot in the dark. I couldn’t pick four home teams to win because it never happens. Of the four wild card teams, the Ravens had the best chance to win in my opinion, so I took them.

Going into this week I looked at the four games and tried to figure out which road teams have the best chance to win. In my opinion, the Ravens are one of the two teams with the best chance.

Their defense is better now than it was two years ago when they won the Super Bowl, their offense is better, and Joe Flacco has continued his inexplicable playoff hot streak.

That said, I struggle pulling the trigger on the pick because of who they’re playing. Sure they’ve gone up and won two playoff games in New England under John Harbaugh, but this year’s Patriots are 7-1 at home, have a completely healthy Gronk, a very good running game, and a fantastic secondary.

I can see this game going either way, but I have to give the nod to the team with the elite quarterback.

Puff’s Pick: Patriots over Ravens, 17-13

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 10, 8:15pm – FOX

Like the Patriots, the Seattle Seahawks are 7-1 at home. They lost at home to Dallas early in the season, but this is a much different team now. The defense has gotten back to form and though the offense is hard to figure out, Russell Wilson is balling out.

The Panthers have won five in a row and it’s certainly fathomable that they could go up to Seattle and pull out a close one. I’ll be shocked if this game is a blowout.

The reason I have to take Seattle in this game is because of the consistency with which they are able to win the tight contests. Carolina and Seattle, for whatever reason, have been playing very close, low-scoring games the past three years. Every time, Seattle has managed to pull it out.

While I give Carolina more than a fighting chance to win this game, I have to give Seattle the nod to advance to the NFC Championship with a last-minute game-winning touchdown drive.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Panthers, 17-16

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 11, 1:05pm – FOX

I wonder how many times a team that is 8-0 on the road has visited a team that is 8-0 at home in the playoffs? I guarantee you can count the instances on one hand.

That’s what we get this Sunday afternoon when the Cowboys visit Lambeau Field.

This is a nearly impossible game to pick. In addition to the Packers being unbeatable at home and the Cowboys being unbeatable on the road, these are two spectacular teams.

Both teams have outstanding running backs, quarterbacks playing at the top of their game, great receiving corps, and defenses that can lock down their opponents when they have to.

The Cowboys get a lucky break with Aaron Rodgers suffering from a calf tear. He will play, but he’ll be limited. He has shown an ability to play hurt, but even I have to wonder how effective he’ll be over the course of the entire game.

Dallas arguably needed a little luck to even get here, but don’t kid yourself into thinking this team isn’t for real. In my opinion, this is the best team in the playoffs on paper. The only things that can keep them out are the locations of their games and whether they execute their game plan.

Rodgers is just 1-2 at home in the playoffs in his career. That, along with his nagging injury, is enough justification for me to make this my upset pick for this round.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Packers, 27-21

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Sunday, January 11, 4:40pm – CBS

Peyton Manning has not been himself lately. In his last four games he has thrown three touchdowns and six interceptions and averaged fewer than 250 passing yards per game.

Denver has gotten a huge lift from C.J. Anderson, who started the season as the number three running back on the Broncos’ depth chart.

Anderson has exceeded 80 rushing yards in each of his last three games and seven of his eight rushing touchdowns on the season have come in his last four games.

The cold weather may affect Peyton Manning, but as long as he can deliver a few passes at key moments in the game, Denver should have no trouble believing Anderson can carry the rest of the load on Sunday.

The Colts sort of limped into the playoffs. Andrew Luck was really struggling down the stretch. He had turnover issues all year, but as the season drew to a close, he was not delivering enough positive production to make up for his mistakes.

He got back on track last week against Cincinnati, but I still have my doubts about how playoff-ready the Colts are and whether they’ll be able to execute in the altitude without playoff veteran Ahmad Bradshaw available.

Puff’s Pick: Broncos over Colts, 31-17

Super Bowl XLVIII Afterword: Broncos vs Seahawks

Jermaine Kearse spun out of four tackles on his way to a touchdown
in the third quarter of Seattle's dominating Super Bowl XLVIII victory.

Cory Puffett

We are two days removed from Super Bowl Sunday and I am still struggling to understand how Seattle dominated this game so thoroughly. The Broncos took away the Beast, Marshawn Lynch. Denver was penalized five fewer times for 60 fewer yards.

The Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl championships, though. They dominated in all facets of the game.

Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin combined for just 64 yards on 24 carries. But Seattle still outgained Denver by more than 100 yards on the ground because Russell Wilson and Percy Harvin combined for 71 yards on just five carries.

Russell Wilson only attempted 25 passes. Peyton Manning completed 34. But Wilson connected on 72-percent of his attempts for 206 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Percy Harvin was electric on special teams, but Seattle stuck with what got them here in the passing game. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse combined for 131 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions. Almost as impressive, those nine catches came on just ten targets.

The Seahawks’ defense only sacked Peyton Manning once, and it only went for a one-yard loss. But the veteran quarterback was hurried often and even scrambled from the pocket at times, which is very atypical.

That pressure from Seattle’s defensive line forced two interceptions. One was returned for a touchdown by Malcolm Smith, who won Super Bowl MVP honors for that, his fumble recovery, a pass deflection and 10 tackles.

Demaryius Thomas had 13 grabs on 18 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. But most of his yards were after the catch because Seattle gave no room for Denver’s receivers to run downfield. Quite a few of those yards also came on a catch and run that ended in a fumble forced by Byron Maxwell.

Percy Harvin had just one kick return for 52 yards all season entering Sunday. He took his only kick return of Super Bowl XLVIII 87 yards to the house. Jon Ryan punted only once, and it was a booming 45-yarder. Britton Colquitt punted twice for Denver and his longest was just 31 yards.

We can talk about whether or not this loss affects Peyton Manning’s legacy. We can talk about what this loss means for Denver, who may lose key offensive pieces like Knowshon Moreno and Eric Decker to free agency this offseason.

But this is the Super Bowl, and when a team wins this game they deserve to have the focus placed on them. The Seattle Seahawks are world champions for the first time in franchise history and they beat a former AFC West rival to capture it. This is the city’s first championship since the SuperSonics beat the Washington Bullets in the 1979 NBA Finals.

Let’s talk about how, for the fourth time in five tries, the league’s leading offense failed to beat the league’s leading defense when the two teams met on this stage. This was the first time such a matchup occurred since 1991. NFL rules were supposed to favor offense much more than it did then. But Seattle’s defense still dominated Denver’s record-setting offense.

And how about Seattle’s own offense? They did pretty damn well for themselves. How does 6.2 yards per play sound? They picked up 2.2 more yards per pass attempt than Denver and 2.8 more yards per rush. They ran nine fewer plays than Denver but still outgained them by 35 total yards on offense.

Don’t forget the new storyline that most analysts didn’t even think about before the game. Is this a Dynasty? Will the Seahawks be to the 2010s what the New England Patriots were to the 2000s? They certainly could be in the short term, though it will be difficult to keep a lot of their pieces once their rookie contracts are up.

Remember that this was the youngest team in the NFL this season at 26 years and some change on average. Seattle is the fourth youngest victor in Super Bowl history.

This was one of the most dominating performances in Super Bowl history and the first true blowout since Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers dismantled the Oakland Raiders more than ten years ago. The fan in me aches for Peyton Manning. I know he wanted this championship and I wanted it for him.

But I pride myself on being able to set aside my fanaticism about Peyton Manning and the Washington Redskins when the time is right. And right now I am just glad I got to witness such a great moment in NFL history.

In 1987, the Washington Redskins crushed the Denver Broncos. It was the biggest blowout in Super Bowl history until two years later when the San Francisco 49ers obliterated almost the same Broncos team. 26 years removed, nobody remembers that the Redskins and Broncos offenses were almost identical in every way. They don’t remember that Denver’s defense was supposed to be vastly superior to Washington’s. We just remember that Denver blew a 10-point lead and lost 42-10.

We may not think so now, but by the time Super Bowl LX (60) rolls around many of us will have forgotten that Denver’s offense wasn’t just great, it was historically great. We won’t even remember how the NFL dodged a bullet with the weather. But we will always remember the way Seattle dominated every aspect of the game and walked away with the city’s first championship.

Final Score:

Seattle Seahawks – 43

Denver Broncos – 8

MVP: LB Malcolm Smith (10 Tack, FR, INT, TD)

Meyer’s Super Bowl Assessment

The Broncos got off to a rough start in Super Bowl XLVIII with
some miscommunication between Peyton Manning and his center.

Eric Meyer

Peyton Manning completed 34 of 49 passes for 280 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. His passer rating was a meager 73.5. Manning also had a fumble and missed twice on fourth down opportunities. The supposed greatest offense in NFL history scored a measly 8 points to Seattle’s 43 in Super Bowl XLVIII. Talk about a choke job, right?

Wrong.

The narrative of Peyton Manning being a lackluster postseason performer has some merit. An 11-12 postseason record (1-2 in Super Bowls) along with some less-than-stellar statistics give that argument some life. Manning hasn’t always had his best showings in January and has lost in pretty shocking and ignominious fashion in the past. But that narrative is inappropriate right now.

The reality is that Manning and the Denver Broncos lost on Sunday because they played a team that was so much better than them that they couldn’t even put up a fight. The narrative for this game ought to be that Seattle’s historically good defense went out and destroyed the league’s top offense.

Any talk of the Broncos squandering an opportunity or “choking” or not showing up is an insult to Seattle’s dominance. The fact is that the Broncos didn’t have a chance to choke. They didn’t have an opportunity to squander. They simply could not compete.

NFL fans, and even experts, do a funny thing when it comes to discussing quarterbacks and their legacies. Countless pundits and analysts will say that Sunday’s loss will stain Manning’s legacy, that he can’t be the greatest ever with a losing record in the Super Bowl.

What these pundits don’t realize is that by slamming Peyton Manning for not performing, they are implying that Seattle was a defense that Manning should have been able to beat. That couldn’t be further from the truth. You can say that Manning played poorly, and you’d be absolutely right. But he played poorly because Seattle forced him to hurry, to force it, and to throw underneath for minimal yardage.

The only conclusion that I draw about Denver from Sunday’s game is that their offense, and by extension Manning, was slightly overrated this year. Manning was the no-brainer MVP and his record-setting season deserves praise. However, the “greatest offense in NFL history” should score more than 8 points, regardless of whom they’re playing.

Denver had the luxury of playing a weak schedule almost all season, which undoubtedly inflated their scoring statistics. They had a perfect storm of sublime quarterbacking, a phenomenal supporting cast and a full helping of weak defenses to abuse. They shattered records as a result.

Because of their prowess, we put Denver on a pedestal. We concluded that they were an unstoppable unit and assumed Seattle would simply have to contain Manning, not dominate him. As a result, we act shocked. But we shouldn’t be.

Seattle’s defense was vastly superior to Denver’s offense, and it showed. Some would say that this was an embarrassing loss for Denver, but as Manning said, “The word ‘embarrassing’ is an insulting word, to tell you the truth.” I couldn’t agree more with that assessment.

2013 NFL Predictions, Super Bowl XLVIII

Every week, the Football Freaks make predictions for every NFL game. Bonus games, in bold, are worth two points while all others are worth one point.

Bonus game (i.e. BOLD game) is the one that receives the most votes from the Football Freaks during each playoff round.

Day/Time	Game	CORY P.	ERIC M.	SEAN K.	SASWAT M.
Feb. 2 –6:30p	DEN vs SEA (FOX)	SEA	SEA	DEN	SEA

	CORY	ERIC	SEAN	SASWAT
SB Record	1-0	1-0	0-1	1-0
Total Record	157-109-1	170-96-1	163-103-1	176-90-1
SB Points	2	2	0	2
Current Totals	204	226	215	234

Some of our listeners are competing with us to score the most points on game predictions this season. Below are their Super Bowl and season totals:

	JAKE D.	EVAN A.	DANNY H.
SB Record	1-0	0-1	1-0
Total Record	162-104-1	161-105-1	163-103-1
SB Points	2	0	2
Current Totals	213	214	217

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