Wild Card Afterword: Colts vs Chiefs

Donald Brown had 55 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Even when he
fumbled in the fourth quarter, Luck recovered and carried it for a touchdown.

Cory Puffett

The Indianapolis Colts advance to the divisional round after winning in the unlikeliest of ways.

The Chiefs led 31-10 at halftime. Andrew Luck’s last pass of the first half and first pass of the second half were both interceptions, and Kansas City took a 38-10 lead less than two minutes into the third quarter.

But Indy’s defense finally found its mojo and held Kansas City to just two field goals the rest of the way. Andrew Luck got back to what he did on the Colts opening drive of the game, when he went 7-7 for 74 yards and a touchdown.

T.Y. Hilton was Luck’s primary target. After struggling to establish himself as a consistent threat following Reggie Wayne’s season-ending injury, Hilton caught 13 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets, more than twice as many as any other Colts receiver. That also stands as the third most receiving yards in a single game in NFL postseason history.

To be fair to Kansas City, they had to deal with a lot of injuries. The offense seemed to absorb Jamaal Charles’s concussion just a few plays into the game. But several key defenders went down with injuries during their second half collapse.

Still, with that kind of a lead, there’s no excuse that can fully account for that kind of a blunder. In one of the most exciting playoff games I can remember, maybe even more so than the Packers/Cardinals game a few years back, Andrew Luck and his defense overcame a 28-point deficit to advance in the 2014 playoffs.

If Cincinnati beats San Diego tomorrow, Indianapolis will play in Denver next week. If the Chargers can win in Cincy, the Colts will travel to Foxboro to play the Patriots in the divisional round.

Final Score:

Kansas City Chiefs – 44

Indianapolis Colts – 45

2014 Wild Card Preview: Colts vs Chiefs

Cory Puffett

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

January 4 – 4:35pm (NBC)

Like two of the other wild card games, this is a rematch from the regular season. But this was the most recent of those games, so some think that the Week 16 matchup between these teams will be nearest to the result this weekend brings.

I have a different opinion. While we can expect a similar Colts team to show up this Saturday in Indianapolis, Kansas City was a shell of itself in that regular season showdown in Arrowhead.

Early in the season, the Chiefs were all about the defense. Jamaal Charles was their offensive leader and Alex Smith’s job was primarily to keep opponents from focusing exclusively on Charles. After Kansas City suffered their first loss, it seemed like the defense was no longer the focus and the game plan shifted to putting up more points. Smith took some more shots down field, Charles was used more in the passing game, and suddenly Kansas City was playing in shootouts.

But they scored just once against Indianapolis in Week 16. Jamaal Charles ran in from 31 yards out to cap Kansas City’s opening drive and then nothing seemed to go right for the Chiefs after that. They had a few good possessions, but a missed field goal and some turnovers kept them from putting points on the board.

Alex Smith threw into some coverages that left me scratching my head. For a guy who doesn’t take a lot of risks, he sure did on that Sunday afternoon. Playing on the road, I expect him to revert to his old habit of protecting the football and using his check down guys more liberally.

Now, after playing so poorly in Week 16 and resting Week 17 (20 of 22 starters did not play against San Diego) don’t be surprised if the Chiefs come out a little rusty. I expect it to wear off though, and Jamaal Charles should have a big second half.

The Colts’ defense had a rough patch mid-season but seems to have shaken it over the past several weeks. That said, they’ve still struggled to contain the better running backs they’ve faced. Charles had a pretty good game in Week 16. The Colts won that game off of Smith’s atypical play and some clutch takeaways.

Indy has struggled to put points on the board since Reggie Wayne was hurt in Week 7. I don’t expect that to change against a Chiefs defense that has played well against mid-level offensive units.

Sure Kansas City has lost 5 of their last 7. I don’t think that means they’re doomed to be a one-and-done team, though. I’ll make my official pick later in the week with the rest of the Football Freaks, but right now I have to say I’m leaning toward Kansas City.

Puff's Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.

Sunday Football Afterword: Chiefs vs Broncos

Peyton Manning picked on Marcus Cooper (31) all day, and Eric Decker
was locked in to his quarterback as he hauled in a career-high four touchdowns.

Cory Puffett

After a very poor outing last week in New England, Peyton Manning got back on track to break a couple of NFL records in a big Denver Broncos victory in Kansas City.

Manning had a rough start to Sunday’s AFC West rivalry matchup, throwing two interceptions in the first half. But, like Tom Brady last week, Manning put together a huge third quarter to help the Broncos take over the game.

Peyton ended up with five touchdown passes, his eighth career game with at least five touchdown passes and second this season. He also recorded his 11^th career game with at least 400 passing yards and third such game of 2013.

In the game, Manning also broke the NFL record for most passing yards through 12 games in a single season and tied Tom Brady’s mark for touchdown passes in the first 12 games of the season.

Eric Decker also had a big game, hauling in four of Manning’s five touchdown passes.

Though the Chiefs’ defense struggled in the second half (and by Chiefs’ defense, I really mean rookie cornerback Marcus Cooper), Alex Smith had a solid performance for the offense. Unfortunately, his receivers failed to hold on to several accurate deep passes. But it did show me that Alex Smith, when he needs to, can throw the passes needed to compete in a shootout.

With their victory, Denver takes over the top seed in the AFC playoffs with a fairly easy remaining schedule. They play at home against Tennessee and San Diego and then close the season on the road against Houston and Oakland.

The Chiefs will close the season with road games against Washington and Oakland, then a tough home matchup against an up-and-down Colts team, and then on the road against San Diego, who beat Kansas City in Week 12. This was the Chiefs’ third straight loss after starting the season 9-0.

Final Score:

Denver Broncos – 35

Kansas City Chiefs – 28

Thursday Football Afterword: Eagles vs Chiefs

Andy Reid had plenty to smile about after his return to Philly
ended with a 26-16 win over Chip Kelly's Eagles.

Eric Meyer

The Chiefs got a big win for their coach while also making a big statement with their defeat of the Eagles. The Chiefs played tough defense all night long and forced five turnovers against the Eagles, including an interception return for a touchdown in the first quarter to set the tone of the game.

The Eagles defense held their own against Kansas City’s offense, recording five sacks on Alex Smith and holding the Chiefs to multiple field goals despite great field position due to turnovers. Eventually, though, the Chiefs broke through with a rushing touchdown from Jamaal Charles in the 4^th quarter to seal the game.

After a great display of offense in the first half of their game in Week 1, the Eagles and Michael Vick are looking very beatable once again, with too many turnovers and an over-reliance on big plays in order to score points.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are showing that they will be a force in the AFC West and are a legitimate playoff contender this season after a dismal 2-14 campaign in 2012.

Final Score:
Kansas City Chiefs - 26
Philadelphia Eagles - 16

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2013-14 Postseason Picks, Part II: AFC Playoff Picks

Yesterday I published my predictions on every team’s final regular season record. So today, I’m here to tell you who will represent each conference in the 2013 playoffs, starting with the AFC. I talked briefly about these picks on Wednesday’s podcast of The All-Sports Crew. Here are a few more details about my picks.

AFC Postseason

1.            Denver Broncos (13-3) – AFC West Champion, Home Field Advantage

The Broncos are a pretty easy choice to win 13 games or more. Even if Von Miller is suspended for a few games, and even with Elvis Dumervil signing with the Ravens, they have one of the better defensive units in the AFC, and their offense will be the best in the conference. That, mixed with another easy schedule, will make for an easy road to home field advantage.

2.            Miami Dolphins (11-5) – AFC East Champion, 1st Round Bye

I can see a million ways the Dolphins can screw this up, but they have a team that can compete with New England this year, and they have a slightly easier schedule than their division rivals.

3.            Houston Texans (9-7) – AFC South Champion

The Texans can win as many as 12 games in my opinion. But with their focus seemingly shifted to finishing the season, we likely will not see them make as long an early-season run this year as we did in 2012. They will get caught up in a tough early- and mid-season schedule, but a strong finish will net them a third straight division title.

4.            Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) – AFC North Champion

This one came down to the final two weeks of the season, and I expect Cincinnati’s home game against Baltimore in Week 17 to be flexed to Sunday night, where I think home field gives the Bengals an edge and the AFC North title.

5.            New England Patriots (10-6) – 2nd Place AFC East, Wild Card

The Patriots can certainly win the AFC East, but it will have more to do with what the Dolphins do down the stretch than it will what the Patriots do. I respect Tom Brady’s game, but he doesn’t usually perform well with receivers that he isn’t familiar with. He has lost too many weapons this offseason, and it will be a struggle even to win 10 games. But it’s Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, so I can’t very well push them to fewer than double-digit wins.

6.            Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) – 2nd Place AFC West, Wild Card

The Chiefs had one of the best bad teams in 2012, with multiple pro bowlers. They kept Dwayne Bowe in house and added a quarterback who will be able to get the ball to their second-best offensive player. With Alex Smith in house to open up their aerial attack, Jamaal Charles could have a bigger year than ever on the ground.

Other Contenders

In the AFC East, the Bills have a lot of talent at running back, but I’m not going to bank on Ryan Fitzpatrick getting back to his early-2011 form.

The Steelers are a better team than the 6-10 record I predict for them, but they have a rough schedule and I’m not expecting to see much better than the disheveled Steelers unit of 2012.

Out West, the Chargers should be playoff contenders, but they won’t.

The only other three serious contenders I see are the Ravens, Colts and Raiders. The Ravens lost a lot of pieces this offseason, but they got Vonta Leach back, which is huge. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will be enough to make up for all their departures and the devastating loss of Dennis Pitta for the season to a hip injury.

The Colts also have a tough schedule. The have plenty of playoff talent on the team, but losing Bruce Arians may be bigger than anyone wants to think.

As for the Raiders, I love their addition of Matt Flynn at quarterback, and I expect him to wind up winning the starting job. However, I have only gotten to see him play one regular season game and some limited preseason action, so I can’t pick the Raiders with any confidence just yet.

Preliminary Playoff Predictions

This is only the second year I am doing this. I got one playoff game correct last preseason, when I predicted the Ravens to win in Denver (though I picked the opposite the week of that game). I also picked the Patriots to beat the Ravens last preseason. Everything else got pretty shot out since the Texans were the only other team I correctly predicted.

Here are my 2013 playoff predictions.

AFC Wild Card

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

As much as I like the Chiefs to improve drastically this season, they can be suspect at times and I think the Texans focus on finishing will carry over into some strong postseason performances.

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Patriots have a better coach and better players. New England has had some playoff struggles the past several season, save for 2011, but the Bengals aren’t ready to take the next step.

AFC Divisional Playoffs

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

I have New England winning their regular season showdown in Foxboro, but in Mile High, I think Peyton Manning delivers the first playoff victory for his new team. 

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins, like the Bengals, don’t look to me like a team ready to make the next step to playoff success. Mike Wallace is a welcome addition to the offense, but it isn’t enough. Houston wins a close one.

AFC Championship Game

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

Houston says this is a ‘Super Bowl or Bust’ year, but I don’t think they are a Super Bowl-ready team. Manning gets his third Super Bowl appearance.

Like last year, I will predict the Super Bowl victor in my NFC post.

Check back shortly for my NFC playoff picks and be sure to follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.