Puff’s Points, Week 17

Merry Christmas and welcome to the final week of the regular season, everybody!

Because my former mid-week blog posts are no longer required – fantasy football is over and there is no Thursday Night Football – I have decided to bring back a new version of last year’s “10 Things You Need to Know.”

So I have a handful of things you should be aware of, as well as my own Power Rankings, which I used nearly 20 statistical categories to calculate.

Let’s get to it!

1. Championship Week

We have championship games set up for the NFC East and NFC North on Sunday. Chicago hosts Green Bay at 4:25 and Philadelphia visits Dallas in the Sunday night regular season finale.

Both games feature starting quarterbacks that have not been cleared to play. And in both games, the winning team will win the division and earn a home game in the playoffs while the losing team will miss the playoffs altogether.

Aaron Rodgers says he will know his status for Green Bay’s game on Thursday. If he is unable to play, Matt Flynn will get another start.

Two NFL insiders, including ESPN’s Adam Schefter, reported earlier this week that Tony Romo would miss the rest of the season with a back injury. Dallas refuted that report and Romo received an epidural injection on Tuesday to relieve his back pain. The Cowboys believe the epidural will do its job and Jerry Jones remains hopefully that Romo will be cleared to start on Sunday night.

On the topic of Dallas, if Romo can’t start, the job will go to Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna will be his backup. The Cowboys are 2-11 in Week 17 games since 2000, the worst record in the NFL.

2. Race for #1

The Houston Texans have not yet clinched the overall number one pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

If the Redskins lose in New York and Houston wins at Tennessee, Washington will finish the season in last place and will send the overall first pick to St. Louis. This is the final draft that the Rams hold Washington’s first round pick from the trade that landed Robert Griffin III in D.C.

3. Record Watch

Peyton Manning took down one record in Week 16, Tom Brady’s 2007 touchdown record. Manning has 51 of them this season and could add to that number this week.

Because New England won last week and remains in contention for the top seed in the AFC – Cincinnati is also still in the running for it, by the way – expect Peyton to play at least until Denver is certain to win Sunday’s game in Oakland.

This means that Drew Brees’s passing yards record from 2011 is also in danger. Manning needs just 266 yards to break it, and has only one game with fewer than that this season.

4. Weird AFC Playoff Scenario

The fates of Baltimore and Miami are not entirely up to their two games.

Of course, if Baltimore wins and Miami loses, the Ravens are in the playoffs. If Miami wins and Baltimore loses, the Dolphins get the AFC six seed.

But things get weird after that. Because tiebreaking rules are different when there is a two-team tie as opposed to a three-team tie, if both teams win, their fates come down to San Diego’s game against Kansas City.

If Baltimore wins in Cincinnati, Miami wins against the Jets and Kansas City wins in San Diego, the Baltimore Ravens get the final playoff spot. But if the Ravens, Dolphins and Chargers all win, the Dolphins will be in the postseason and the Ravens will not.

Speaking of which, the only way San Diego can make the playoffs is if Baltimore and Miami both lose and they beat the Chiefs. If all three lose, Baltimore will get the AFC’s final playoff spot.

5. Broncos the Greatest Offense since 1983?

Not necessarily, but if they score at least 25 points in Oakland, they will become just the second team since 1940 to do so in 15 games in one season. The 1983 Redskins did and went on to lose Super Bowl XVIII to the LA Raiders.

6. Five-reception Club

Only one player since 1960 has had at least five receptions in all 16 regular season games, Jacksonville receiver Jimmy Smith in 2001. Pierre Garçon and Antonio Brown can both join him this weekend if they can get five receptions, Garçon against the Giants and Brown against the Browns.

7. Good Luck Jay

Even if Aaron Rodgers is unavailable to the Packers on Sunday, Green Bay has to like their chances to go to the playoffs. They are 7-1 against Jay Cutler. They have more interceptions off Cutler than any other team and have forced multiple interceptions in five of the eight games they’ve played against the Bears’ quarterback. They’ve also sacked him 30 times in those eight games.

8. Bye Week Steak

A win against the visiting Bills this weekend will give the Patriots a first round bye for a fourth straight season. Only two teams have done this since 1990. The Cowboys and 49ers both did it from 1992 to 1995 (poor NFC field).

9. Dominating Defense

The Buffalo Bills are about the finish the season with a losing record for their ninth straight season, the worst active streak in the league.

But they are on pace to finish the league first in sacks and top two in interceptions. Only five teams have done that since 1964.

10. Power Rankings

I used 18 different statistical categories and my own rough power rankings to rank all 32 teams mathematically.

Here are those rankings with Puff’s Number, the number my calculation assigned each of them. Teams in bold have already clinched their division or a playoff spot, while teams in red are teams still alive for their division or a playoff spot:

1. SEA (4.17)	9. KC (7.93)	17. GB (10.86)	25. WAS (14.13)
2. CAR (5.15)	10. SD (8.10)	18. MIA (11.24)	26. NYG (14.45)
3. NO (5.26)	11. PHI (8.19)	19. STL (11.48)	27. TB (14.49)
4. CIN (5.35)	12. IND (8.66)	20. BUF (11.71)	28. HOU (14.50)
5. DEN (5.56)	T-13. CHI (9.71)	21. DAL (11.82)	29. ATL (15.00)
6. SF (5.95)	T-13. DET (9.71)	22. TEN (11.96)	30. OAK (15.25)
7. NE (6.71)	15. BAL (10.41)	23. NYJ (12.74)	31. MIN (15.34)
8. ARI (7.20)	16. PIT (10.57)	24. CLE (14.00)	32. JAC (17.66)