Merry Christmas and welcome to the final week of the regular
season, everybody!
Because my former mid-week blog posts are no longer required
– fantasy football is over and there is no Thursday Night Football – I have
decided to bring back a new version of last year’s “10 Things You Need to
Know.”
So I have a handful of things you should be aware of, as
well as my own Power Rankings, which I used nearly 20 statistical categories to
calculate.
Let’s get to it!
1. Championship Week
We have championship games set up for the NFC East and NFC
North on Sunday. Chicago hosts Green Bay at 4:25 and Philadelphia visits Dallas
in the Sunday night regular season finale.
Both games feature starting quarterbacks that have not been
cleared to play. And in both games, the winning team will win the division and
earn a home game in the playoffs while the losing team will miss the playoffs
altogether.
Aaron Rodgers says he will know his status for Green Bay’s
game on Thursday. If he is unable to play, Matt Flynn will get another start.
Two NFL insiders, including ESPN’s Adam Schefter, reported
earlier this week that Tony Romo would miss the rest of the season with a back
injury. Dallas refuted that report and Romo received an epidural injection on Tuesday
to relieve his back pain. The Cowboys believe the epidural will do its job and
Jerry Jones remains hopefully that Romo will be cleared to start on Sunday
night.
On the topic of Dallas, if Romo can’t start, the job will go to Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna will be
his backup. The Cowboys are 2-11 in Week 17 games since 2000, the worst record
in the NFL.
2. Race for #1
The Houston Texans have not yet clinched the overall number
one pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.
If the Redskins lose in New York and Houston wins at
Tennessee, Washington will finish the season in last place and will send the
overall first pick to St. Louis. This is the final draft that the Rams hold
Washington’s first round pick from the trade that landed Robert Griffin III in
D.C.
3. Record Watch
Peyton Manning took down one record in Week 16, Tom Brady’s
2007 touchdown record. Manning has 51 of them this season and could add to that
number this week.
Because New England won last week and remains in contention
for the top seed in the AFC – Cincinnati is also still in the running for it,
by the way – expect Peyton to play at least until Denver is certain to win
Sunday’s game in Oakland.
This means that Drew Brees’s passing yards record from 2011
is also in danger. Manning needs just 266 yards to break it, and has only one
game with fewer than that this season.
4. Weird AFC Playoff
Scenario
The fates of Baltimore and Miami are not entirely up to
their two games.
Of course, if Baltimore wins and Miami loses, the Ravens are
in the playoffs. If Miami wins and Baltimore loses, the Dolphins get the AFC
six seed.
But things get weird after that. Because tiebreaking rules
are different when there is a two-team tie as opposed to a three-team tie, if
both teams win, their fates come down to San Diego’s game against Kansas City.
If Baltimore wins in Cincinnati, Miami wins against the Jets
and Kansas City wins in San Diego, the Baltimore Ravens get the final playoff
spot. But if the Ravens, Dolphins and Chargers all win, the Dolphins will be in
the postseason and the Ravens will not.
Speaking of which, the only way San Diego can make the
playoffs is if Baltimore and Miami both lose and they beat the Chiefs. If all
three lose, Baltimore will get the AFC’s final playoff spot.
5. Broncos the
Greatest Offense since 1983?
Not necessarily, but if they score at least 25 points in
Oakland, they will become just the second team since 1940 to do so in 15 games
in one season. The 1983 Redskins did and went on to lose Super Bowl XVIII to
the LA Raiders.
6. Five-reception
Club
Only one player since 1960 has had at least five receptions
in all 16 regular season games, Jacksonville receiver Jimmy Smith in 2001.
Pierre Garçon and Antonio Brown can both join him this weekend if they can get
five receptions, Garçon against the Giants and Brown against the Browns.
7. Good Luck Jay
Even if Aaron Rodgers is unavailable to the Packers on
Sunday, Green Bay has to like their chances to go to the playoffs. They are 7-1
against Jay Cutler. They have more interceptions off Cutler than any other team
and have forced multiple interceptions in five of the eight games they’ve
played against the Bears’ quarterback. They’ve also sacked him 30 times in
those eight games.
8. Bye Week Steak
A win against the visiting Bills this weekend will give the
Patriots a first round bye for a fourth straight season. Only two teams have
done this since 1990. The Cowboys and 49ers both did it from 1992 to 1995 (poor
NFC field).
9. Dominating Defense
The Buffalo Bills are about the finish the season with a
losing record for their ninth straight season, the worst active streak in the
league.
But they are on pace to finish the league first in sacks and
top two in interceptions. Only five teams have done that since 1964.
10. Power Rankings
I used 18 different statistical categories and my own rough
power rankings to rank all 32 teams mathematically.
Here are those rankings with Puff’s Number, the number my
calculation assigned each of them. Teams in bold have already clinched their division or a playoff spot, while
teams in red are teams still alive for their
division or a playoff spot:
|
1. SEA (4.17)
|
9. KC (7.93)
|
17. GB (10.86)
|
25. WAS (14.13)
|
|
2. CAR (5.15)
|
10. SD (8.10)
|
18. MIA (11.24)
|
26. NYG (14.45)
|
|
3. NO (5.26)
|
11. PHI (8.19)
|
19. STL (11.48)
|
27. TB (14.49)
|
|
4. CIN (5.35)
|
12. IND (8.66)
|
20. BUF (11.71)
|
28. HOU (14.50)
|
|
5. DEN (5.56)
|
T-13. CHI (9.71)
|
21. DAL (11.82)
|
29. ATL (15.00)
|
|
6. SF (5.95)
|
T-13. DET (9.71)
|
22. TEN (11.96)
|
30. OAK (15.25)
|
|
7. NE (6.71)
|
15. BAL (10.41)
|
23. NYJ (12.74)
|
31. MIN (15.34)
|
|
8. ARI (7.20)
|
16. PIT (10.57)
|
24. CLE (14.00)
|
32. JAC (17.66)
|
