Puff’s Points, Divisional Playoffs

Two teams hired new head coaches this week. The Texans hired
former Penn St. coach Bill O'Brien and the Bucs brought in Love Smith.

We are one week into the 2014 NFL postseason and the field, vying to be the 48^th to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, has been reduced to eight.

As I did last week, I will preview this Saturday’s playoff games on Wednesday and the Sunday games on Thursday before I, and my Football Freaks co-hosts, make our official predictions on Friday.

Now, it’s time for me to give you a heads up on what I think you need to know as we head into the second weekend of the playoffs.

1. A Postseason of Rematches

In the wild card round, three of the four games were rematches from the regular season (way to screw up the trend, Saints/Eagles).

This weekend we’ll get three more. The Seahawks already beat – or should I say beat down? – the Saints in Week 13. Now the Saints have to go back in front of the 12^th man in the first game of this weekend’s Divisional Round.

San Francisco lost at home in Week 10 the Carolina Panthers. This week they have to play in Carolina. That mid-season loss was by just one point, and the 49ers have gotten a couple key players back from injury since then, but I’ll talk more about that on Thursday.

The Chargers, riding a five-game winning streak, will head back to Sports Authority Field at Mile High, where the second of those five wins came against the Broncos.

2. Better to be Luck-y than Good

Andrew Luck threw three picks in the Colts’ wild card win against Kansas City. But behind a strong second-half performance by his defense, and a lucky bounce on a Donald Brown fumble in the fourth quarter, Luck notched the 11^th game winning drive and 8^th fourth-quarter comeback of his young career.

Luck also showed great poise to avoid a second straight playoff loss to start his career.

3. Branching Out

The Colts announced Monday that they signed Deion Branch to the team. With Darius Heyward-Bey battling a nagging hamstring injury and New England’s defense likely to try and take away T.Y. Hilton on Saturday, this is a pretty good signing.

Branch worked out for Indy last month, so clearly they feel comfortable with the kind of physical shape he is in. It also helps that he’s an experienced receiver. He’s had trouble staying healthy in the past, the main reason a lot of people underrate him, in my opinion, but the Colts only need him for this playoff push and he could be a big asset.

4. Spikes to IR

Sticking with that game, the Patriots are going to have to deal with another big injury for however long their run lasts. Linebacker Brandon Spikes played in all 16 regular season games and was one of the team’s leading tacklers. He also had an interception, a fumble recovery and a couple pass deflections.

But on Monday the Patriots announced that Spikes is now on injured reserve and will be unavailable for the remainder of the postseason. With several other key players like Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer and, of course, Gronk also on injured reserve, the road ahead only gets tougher for New England.

5. Comeback Player of the Year

Last year, this award clearly came down to Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson. I doubt there was a person who could come up with a third name to throw into that list if you’d offered up a million dollars.

This year there aren’t any real obvious choices, but there are still some good candidates. NFL.com offers up eight players for consideration and my top three from that list are:

1. Ryan Mathews
2. Brent Grimes
3. Alex Smith

All three players are coming off injuries that ended their 2012 seasons. Ryan Mathews twice broke his collarbone last year and Grimes tore his Achilles. Smith was cleared to play last year after a concussion, but Colin Kaepernick got the “hot hand” nod and Smith was sent packing to Kansas City over the offseason.

Mathews has dealt with fumble issues and people constantly questioning his toughness. This year he shared San Diego’s backfield with Danny Woodhead, who was one of Philip Rivers’s favorite targets early in the season. But Mathews emerged as a leader for the offense during their four-game winning streak to make the cut for the playoffs.

Grimes, coming off that injury and standing at just 5’ 10” as a cornerback, had to settle for a one-year deal with Miami. He’s a Pro Bowler this season after emerging as not only one of the best cover corners in football but also one of the best tacklers at the position.

Smith is on my list because people are forever questioning him. They say he sucked early in his career, but he only started 8+ games once in his first three seasons. In 2011 they said he sucked because he only threw 17 touchdowns, even though he also only threw 5 interceptions and led his team to a shootout win against the Saints in the playoffs. And going into 2013 they conveniently forgot his 13:5 TD-to-INT ratio in nine games before his injury last season. This year he threw 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and turned the Chiefs’ run offense into a juggernaut capable of beating you on the ground or in the air.

6. Old and New Coaches

The Titans joined the search for a new head coach when they fired Mike Munchak on Saturday. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see the Bengals join the hunt, too, after Marvin Lewis lost his fifth playoff game in five tries.

Two teams have already found their men. The Houston Texans fired interim head coach Wade Phillips and hired Penn State coach Bill O’Brien.

In Tampa, the Buccaneers want to separate themselves from the image Greg Schiano gave them. I’d say they did a pretty damn good job by grabbing Lovie Smith, the former Bears team that took Rex Grossman to the Super Bowl. Did you hear that? He took Rex Grossman to a Super Bowl. As a starting quarterback. Why did the Bears fire him, again?

7. Comeback Wild Card

In three of this year’s wild card games, the winning team was trailing at halftime. Only the San Francisco 49ers were able to keep control of the game through the second half, albeit just barely.

The Colts trailed 31-10 at halftime and 38-10 less than two minutes into the third quarter. They came back to win 45-44.

The Saints trailed 7-6 at the half and then scored the first 14 points of the third quarter. They won 26-24 on a last-second field goal by Shayne Graham. I wonder if Garrett Hartley would have gone 4-for-4 on field goals on Saturday?

And the Bengals held a 10-7 advantage before collapsing only slightly less embarrassingly than the Chiefs. The Chargers outscored Cincinnati 20-0 in the second half of that game.

8. Home Teams Beware

Only the Indianapolis Colts won at home on wild card weekend, and they needed a miraculous comeback to do so. It seems like this is a trend of the past few years and the bye week teams better look out.

9. Streak Breaker

The last game of the divisional round will break one of two streaks. The last four teams to visit Philadelphia for the Eagles’ regular season home opener have gone on to win the Super Bowl. The Saints beat the Eagles in 2009 and went on to beat the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.

The Packers beat Philly in 2010 and then beat Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV. Then in 2011 the Giants won in Philly’s home opener and went on to beat New England in Super Bowl XLVI.

Last year the Ravens lost to the Eagles in that Philly home opener but still won the Super Bowl, proving that you don’t have to spoil Philadelphia’s home opener.

This year, the San Diego Chargers won 33-30 in Week 2 in Philadelphia and will have a chance to continue that streak with a win on Sunday in Denver.

But Peyton Manning has never lost twice at home to the same team in a single season. In fact, the only time he has lost twice in the same stadium to a single opponent was in 2004 when he lost the season opener in New England and then lost in Foxboro in the playoffs.

10. Power Rankings

My power rankings went 2-2 last week. New Orleans was ranked above Philly and San Francisco ahead of Green Bay. But both Cincinnati and Kansas City were ranked higher than their opponents in the wild card round, so maybe my calculation only works for NFC teams.

Anyway, I’ve recalculated everything for just the eight remaining teams, so here are the updated power rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks (1.514)	5. Carolina Panthers (2.771)
2. Denver Broncos (2.264)	6. Indianapolis Colts (3.365)
3. New Orleans Saints (2.551)	7. New England Patriots (3.382)
4. San Francisco 49ers (2.679)	8. San Diego Chargers (3.708)

So according to these rankings, Seattle and Denver should both win easily since they are playing at home against lower ranked teams. Meanwhile the Patriots and Panthers are ranked lower than the teams they are hosting, but not by much, so the home field advantage may well overcome the difference.

Or my rankings calculation could just be way off. Eh, it’s just for fun anyway. I like manipulating numbers.

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 17 Late Games

Adrian Peterson ran hard yesterday but came up short of the
all-time rushing record. It really puts Dickerson's season
in perspective. Photo credit to NY Times.

The later Sunday games were the exciting ones – though the Bears/Lions matchup did have some late-game excitement.

The Denver Broncos finished the season on an 11-game winning streak as Peyton Manning led Denver to an 11^th consecutive win of seven points or more. It is the second time he has had a streak of 10+ consecutive wins of seven or more points. Only two other quarterbacks have done so once. On the Chiefs’ side, an emotional year came to an end and Romeo Crennel was fired as their head coach this morning.

While Denver was romping Kansas City, New England was doing the same to a division opponent of their own in a 28-0 thrashing of the Dolphins. Miami had a decent year and will look to improve on it with a young quarterback who had enough good and bad games this season that he will learn anything he needs to in order to improve next year.

With Houston’s loss to Indianapolis earlier in the day, their wins locked up the AFC’s #1 seed for Denver and #2 seed for New England.

San Diego got off to a hot start, returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown at home against Oakland. Though the official announcement has not been made today, Norv Turner is expected to be fired, and he even said he expects that the organization will begin looking for another coach. The question is whether Turner will ever be a head coach in the NFL again.

St. Louis gave Seattle quite a scare, and gave some NFC playoff teams a little hope that they can slow a Seahawks offensive attack that had been on a tear the three previous weeks. The Seahawks won though, and are plenty hot heading into the postseason.

The 49ers locked up the NFC West with a 27-13 victory over the Cardinals. I don’t think Ken Whisenhunt will be fired, though there are plenty of opinions on both sides around the nation, but I’m sure we’ll get a more concrete answer on that front within a few days.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, the Vikings played a heck of a game and knocked the Bears out of the playoffs and locked up a wild-card spot for themselves with a 37-34 win over the Packers. Poor Bears fans, who had to pull for rival Green Bay for three hours only to come up empty-handed. Adrian Peterson finished 9 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s rushing record but should end up winning MVP now that the Vikings have locked up a playoff birth.

I hadn’t been planning on it, but my afterword for the ‘NFC East Championship’ game was a little long. I will lengthen it slightly and publish it separately from this post to keep the length of this post reasonable. Come back a bit later and check that post out. Thanks for reading!

UPDATE - The firings of Norv Turner and Ken Whisenhunt were announced this afternoon. I won't begin to speculate on who will end up with either San Diego or Arizona, but I think Andy Reid would be a good fit in Arizona.

Norv Turner should not get another head coaching position. I could see him getting a coordinator position somewhere, but I wouldn't give it to him. Whisenhunt, on the other hand, absolutely deserves another head coaching opportunity. I see him in a similar light as Andy Reid. The teams need a change of pace and the coaches could use a change of scenery.

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 17 Early Games

There wasn't too much positive news for teams in yesterday's
early games, but Super Bowl winning head coach Sean Payton
will return to the Saints' sideline in 2013.
Photo credit to NY Daily News.

It was a long Sunday with all sixteen games played yesterday. The Buccaneers snapped a five-game losing streak by winning their season finale. After being in playoff contention in early December, they dropped way out but really knocked around the Falcons in Week 17. With the NFC South clinched, Atlanta still played their starters and suffered injuries to two defensive leaders. Hopefully neither is significant.

Buffalo crushed the New York Jets at home, 28-9 to end their season. It was not enough, however, to save Chan Gailey’s job as head coach. On the Jets’ side, General Manager Mike Tannenbaum is out. Rex Ryan, however, will return to coach the Jets in 2013.

Baltimore only played their starters early in the game, and Cincinnati followed suit shortly after, but Cincinnati proved to have a slightly better second team than the Ravens. Both teams will play next weekend and I will preview their games later in the week.

Houston struggled in consecutive weeks, first to the Vikings and then to the Colts, who they beat two weeks ago. This time, Chuck Pagano was on the sideline and it was in Indianapolis, where the Texans are 0-11 all-time. People try to keep from reading into that stuff, but come on; the Colts beat the Texans in Indy last year when they won two games and Houston won the AFC South. There’s something to that stat.

In New Orleans, the Saints looked to be headed to a .500 record but a poor defense – New Orleans set the NFL record for yards allowed in a season – and a Drew Brees pick-6 allowed Carolina to take a significant lead. The Saints’ offense came back firing, but their defense could not keep the Panthers from scoring more and Carolina ended up winning the game.

In New York, Tom Coughlin wants answers. The Giants have been the most inconsistent team in the past six or so weeks of any team I can ever remember seeing in the NFL. They closed the season with a 35-point victory over the Eagles, spurred on by the fact that they could still get a playoff spot with some help, but they would need the win. Michael Vick got the start for Philly but looked no better than he did early in the season. However, the celebration for the win was short-lived, only about five-minutes long, in fact.

Chicago’s defense kept Calvin Johnson from eclipsing 2,000 receiving yards, but nearly let the Lions come all the way back from a 20-3 deficit late in the second quarter. The win gave the Bears a playoff spot if the Packers could beat the Vikings in a later game. It also eliminated the Giants from the playoffs just a few minutes after they concluded their defeat of the Eagles. The Bears were ultimately knocked out of the postseason (I will get into that in my later post) and Lovie Smith was fired this morning.

With Ben Roethlisberger starting this time around, the Steelers avoided turning the ball over eight time, and in doing so beat AFC North rival Cleveland in both teams’ season finales. The Browns’ head coach Pat Shurmur and GM Tom Heckert were both fired this morning.

The Titans let Jacksonville stay in it early but ended up rolling to a 38-20 victory over Jacksonville, mostly due to three interceptions by Chad Henne, two of which were returned for touchdowns by rookie Zach Brown, and two punt return TDs by Darius Reynaud. Jacksonville GM Gene Smith was fired today after the Jaguars suffered their worst record since the franchise was created in 1995.

Check back later for my Sunday Football Afterword for the seven late games. Thanks for reading everyone!