Puff’s Points, Pro Bowl

If no team steps forward and volunteers for next season, the NFL
will assign a team to participate in HBO's Hard Knocks next Summer.

No, I’m not going to write a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about the Pro Bowl. I’m excited for Sunday’s game because of the new set-up, but because I don’t know what to expect there really isn’t much to write about leading up to it.

This blog post is titled the way it is so that if I can come up with some more interesting topics and facts to address next week, I’ll have another title available.

So let’s get to what has piqued my interesting this week.

1. Battle of Ones

Super Bowl XLVIII will mark the 10^th time the top seeded teams from both conferences will meet with the Lombardi Trophy on the line.

The NFL implemented a seeding structure the playoffs following the 1975 regular season. In five of the first ten Super Bowls after that, the top seeded teams from both conferences made it all the way to the finish line.

But this year marks just the second time it has happened since 1993. The other was in 2009 when Peyton Manning’s Colts met the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. Now Manning’s Broncos will look to avoid meeting the same fate against the Seattle Seahawks.

2. More New Rules Coming

Roger Goodell announced on Monday that the NFL may explore eliminating the PAT (point after touchdown) attempt, making touchdowns worth seven points and then possibly implementing a play from scrimmage that would give an eighth point if successful. You could elect not to attempt the extra play and keep the seven points or try for the eighth point and go back to six if you fail to convert it.

But I don’t understand why we need to change anything about the PAT. They are not really automatic. Sure there were only five misses this year and there were only five misses last year, but as recently as 2009 we had 20 missed PAT’s in a single regular season, and that followed a 2008 regular season in which only six PAT’s were missed.

There is some level of skill involved in these kicks. So the only reason that such a chance would be warranted, in my opinion, is if there are a lot of injuries occurring on these plays. I don’t have any official numbers, but I don’t believe there are many injuries on PAT or field goals attempts.

3. Review Changes On the Way

Even as Roger Goodell has me scratching my head on one possible rule change, he has me praising the league for considering another. Penalized hits may soon become reviewable. We have seen a number of legal hits draw penalty flags in the past couple seasons. One of the most memorable came when San Francisco visited Seattle during the 2012 regular season.

I haven’t complained too much about these flags. The speed of the game and the league’s emphasis on player safety forces referees to throw the flag for anything that could be considered a borderline illegal hit.

But now we may get the best of both worlds. The refs will still carry out the league’s safety initiative while coaches will be able to ask them to take a second look to confirm whether a given hit is legal or not.

It is important to continue to push player safety, but as defenders try to re-learn how to tackle in order to stay within the rules they should not be penalized for clean hits just because they can be heard from a mile away.

4. Denver Joins Elite Company

The Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots have each been to seven Super Bowls. The Steelers have six wins in eight trips, the Cowboys have five wins in eight trips and the Patriots have three victories in their seven Super Bowl appearances.

Denver’s win on Sunday vaulted them to the seventh appearance in their franchise’s history. The Broncos are 2-4 in the Super Bowl with their wins following the 1997 and 1998 regular seasons, John Elway’s last two seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

5. Hard Knocks

Some of you may remember that during the NFL’s fall meeting a rule was set in place that will allow the league to appoint a team to covered by HBO’s Hard Knocks if no team volunteers.

There are some rules concerning eligibility. If you have a first-year coach, have made the playoffs in the last two years, or have been a subject of the show in the past ten years, the NFL will not appoint you for the show. I am not sure if such teams are allowed to volunteer.

This year’s eligible teams are the Cardinals, Bills, Bears, Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, Steelers and Rams, according to NFL.com.

6. Super Injuries

The Denver Broncos got some good news on Monday when running back Knowshon Moreno’s X-rays came back negative. Moreno suffered a rib injury in Sunday’s game against New England and John Fox listed him as day-to-day this week. With two weeks to prepare and recover, there is no way Moreno will miss Super Bowl XLVIII.

Seattle hopes to have Percy Harvin for the Super Bowl. He did not pass concussion protocol last week and could not participate in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco. Seattle played without him all season and managed just fine without him on Sunday. But if they can clear him and get him working in practice this week he could be a key contributor to their offense next week.

7. Power Rankings

I don’t know how this will work with just two teams, and keep in mind that weather could completely screw with a lot of the components of these rankings. But since I’ve done it all postseason, I decided to go ahead and rank Denver and Seattle against each other in all the same categories that I have been comparing all the playoff teams to each other.

1. Seattle Seahawks (0.827)

2. Denver Broncos (1.024)

My guess is that adverse weather would swing this even more in Seattle’s favor, but there are other factors that will go into this game. Over the next week and a half I will be going back through game film of these two teams’ entire seasons. My official prediction, as usual, will come from Madden, but I will be supporting the outcome of my Madden game with the research I’ll be doing over the next several days.

Deion Sanders and Jerry Rice, along with the selected team captains, will be dividing up this year’s Pro Bowlers to their teams on Wednesday evening. I will write something up later this week about that game.

Puff’s Points, Conference Championships

Most of the NFL's pocket passers are entering "old age," with just a few
young guns roaming. We may not see them again on this stage for a while.

Cory Puffett

In less than three weeks there will be just one team celebrating victory. Today, there are four that have finished their celebrations and now look ahead to Sunday.

In the NFC, we have division rivals with young mobile quarterbacks, veteran power running backs and stingy defenses.

In the AFC, old rivals square off once again, the last great ones in a strain of quarterback we rarely see anymore. Brady and Manning will duel for the fourth time in the postseason as they lead two teams that have faced and overcome adversity all year.

I will have plenty more to write and say about those two matchups later in the week. First, let’s get to my thoughts from the past weekend, both in the playoffs and around the rest of the NFL.

1. RGIII-va

I’ve been all over Robert Griffin III this year, voicing my concern and irritation with his apparent “diva” attitude.

On Monday, one of Griffin’s Facebook posts popped up all over Twitter. ESPN and NFL.com then ran stories about it. The status concerned fans’ concerns about his large number of commercials, the sleeve and glove he wears in games, and even his seeming “all about me” attitude.

But that status was posted on Friday. And even to me it didn’t seem out of line. Sure it was defensive, but I can’t blame him for wanting to issue a short statement to his critics.

News stories are supposed to be timely. Three days after the fact isn’t “timely,” not to me at least. And if it isn’t a news story, leave it for the tabloids. We’re in the midst of a very exciting postseason. We don’t need Robert to be in the headlines. Find something better to write about, people.

2. Eagles’ Streak Ends

For four straight seasons, the team that faced Philadelphia in their home opener has gone on to win the Super Bowl. This year it was the San Diego Chargers that played the first regular season game in Lincoln Financial Field.

San Diego was eliminated on Sunday, ending the Eagles’ four-year run of luck for their opening day visitors.

Speaking of streaks ending, the Redskins also had one that will end this season. They had beaten the last three Super Bowl champions during the regular season that they won. Washington beat the Baltimore Ravens last regular season, the New York Giants twice the season before that and the Green Bay Packers in 2010.

If the Broncos or 49ers win the Super Bowl this year, the Redskins streak of playing the eventual Super Bowl champion every season since 2006 will continue. You have to love meaningless stats.

3. Another Coach Hired

The Washington Redskins announced last week that Jay Gruden will be their man, signing the first-time NFL head coach to a five-year contract. That followed a couple other head coaching announcements across the league.

With San Diego now out of the playoffs, the Tennessee Titans wasted no time in announcing Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as their next head coach.

Coach Whisenhunt last held a head coaching position in Arizona from 2007-2012. He took the Cardinals to the franchise’s first Super Bowl after the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at quarterback. They won the NFC West again in 2009 and lost in the divisional round of the playoffs before winning just five games in two of the next three seasons.

Despite his poor record in five years as Arizona’s head coach, Whisenhunt is very well respected throughout the league.

4. Familiar Faces

The New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers are both making their third consecutive conference title game appearance. In both cases, a lot of credit goes to the coaches.

Bill Belichick turned the New England Patriots into the dynasty of the 2000s. The team had some success in the late 90’s after Robert Kraft took ownership of the team, but three Super Bowl titles in four years cleared the 90’s out of sight and out of mind.

Though it’s been nearly a decade since New England last hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, they’ve been a mainstay at the top of the AFC, and it’s thanks in large part to Belichick’s ability to absorb losses and keep the ship intact.

Jim Harbaugh is quickly gaining recognition as one of the league’s elite head coaches, and he is in just his third year. The former quarterback is the first head coach in the Super Bowl era to take his team to a conference championship game in each of his first three seasons. It becomes even more remarkable given the 49ers’ status as an NFC West cellar-dweller before his arrival.

It’s a few years early, but if things keep progressing as they have, the 49ers might well be known as a dynasty not only from the 80s, but in the 2010s, as well.

5. The Rematches Continue

Three of four wild card games were regular season rematches. Then three of four divisional playoff games were rematches from the regular season.

The trend continues this week as both conference title games feature teams that played each other in the regular season, twice in the case of NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle.

So far, the winner of the regular season matchup is 3-2, or 3-3 if you include only the most recent regular season meeting since Denver and San Diego split their regular season series.

New England beat Denver in Foxboro less than two months ago. The Broncos built a sizable halftime lead off of some New England turnovers and a couple nice drives by the offense, but even with the wind at his back Peyton Manning could not keep the ball away from the Patriots and Tom Brady led his team back in the third quarter and ultimately won by three.

The 49ers and Seahawks split their regular season series, Seattle blowing out San Francisco in Week 2 at CenturyLink before losing a close one at Candlestick late in the season. Colin Kaepernick has yet to overcome the 12^th Man and I’m not holding me breath that it will happen this week.

6. Experience vs. Youth

This storyline is going to dominate the two weeks leading into Super Bowl XLVIII, so let me be the first to point out that no matter who wins this weekend’s games, the Super Bowl will see a veteran traditional pocket passer on one sideline and a young gunslinger who won’t hesitate to scramble your defense to death on the other.

It will be an exciting and rare opportunity to see two eras, two leagues almost, clash at the highest level. Even if it means Tom Brady lifting a fourth Lombardi, I have to say that I’m hoping the traditional style wins out. We may not see a quarterback of that breed playing on this stage again for a long time.

7. Power Rankings

Yeah, I know, I couldn’t come up with three other interesting things to write about that didn’t involve previewing this weekend’s games. And I’m saving that for Thursday.

Last week only one team beat a team ranked higher than them in my power rankings, and that was New England, but their ranking measurement was less than 0.02 points worse than Indianapolis, so I’m pretty pleased with how they turned out.

I’ve recalculated my rankings for the four teams that remain, so here are my conference championship power rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks (1.102)

2. San Francisco 49ers (1.405)

3. Denver Broncos (1.545)

4. New England Patriots (1.827)

So based on these numbers, we should expect to see both home teams win. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it happens on the NFC side. It’s a little more dicey in the AFC.

Tomorrow I will write about the four remaining teams and their histories in the conference championship. Thursday I will preview both games and my official predictions will come on Friday.

Puff’s Points, Divisional Playoffs

Two teams hired new head coaches this week. The Texans hired
former Penn St. coach Bill O'Brien and the Bucs brought in Love Smith.

We are one week into the 2014 NFL postseason and the field, vying to be the 48^th to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, has been reduced to eight.

As I did last week, I will preview this Saturday’s playoff games on Wednesday and the Sunday games on Thursday before I, and my Football Freaks co-hosts, make our official predictions on Friday.

Now, it’s time for me to give you a heads up on what I think you need to know as we head into the second weekend of the playoffs.

1. A Postseason of Rematches

In the wild card round, three of the four games were rematches from the regular season (way to screw up the trend, Saints/Eagles).

This weekend we’ll get three more. The Seahawks already beat – or should I say beat down? – the Saints in Week 13. Now the Saints have to go back in front of the 12^th man in the first game of this weekend’s Divisional Round.

San Francisco lost at home in Week 10 the Carolina Panthers. This week they have to play in Carolina. That mid-season loss was by just one point, and the 49ers have gotten a couple key players back from injury since then, but I’ll talk more about that on Thursday.

The Chargers, riding a five-game winning streak, will head back to Sports Authority Field at Mile High, where the second of those five wins came against the Broncos.

2. Better to be Luck-y than Good

Andrew Luck threw three picks in the Colts’ wild card win against Kansas City. But behind a strong second-half performance by his defense, and a lucky bounce on a Donald Brown fumble in the fourth quarter, Luck notched the 11^th game winning drive and 8^th fourth-quarter comeback of his young career.

Luck also showed great poise to avoid a second straight playoff loss to start his career.

3. Branching Out

The Colts announced Monday that they signed Deion Branch to the team. With Darius Heyward-Bey battling a nagging hamstring injury and New England’s defense likely to try and take away T.Y. Hilton on Saturday, this is a pretty good signing.

Branch worked out for Indy last month, so clearly they feel comfortable with the kind of physical shape he is in. It also helps that he’s an experienced receiver. He’s had trouble staying healthy in the past, the main reason a lot of people underrate him, in my opinion, but the Colts only need him for this playoff push and he could be a big asset.

4. Spikes to IR

Sticking with that game, the Patriots are going to have to deal with another big injury for however long their run lasts. Linebacker Brandon Spikes played in all 16 regular season games and was one of the team’s leading tacklers. He also had an interception, a fumble recovery and a couple pass deflections.

But on Monday the Patriots announced that Spikes is now on injured reserve and will be unavailable for the remainder of the postseason. With several other key players like Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer and, of course, Gronk also on injured reserve, the road ahead only gets tougher for New England.

5. Comeback Player of the Year

Last year, this award clearly came down to Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson. I doubt there was a person who could come up with a third name to throw into that list if you’d offered up a million dollars.

This year there aren’t any real obvious choices, but there are still some good candidates. NFL.com offers up eight players for consideration and my top three from that list are:

1. Ryan Mathews
2. Brent Grimes
3. Alex Smith

All three players are coming off injuries that ended their 2012 seasons. Ryan Mathews twice broke his collarbone last year and Grimes tore his Achilles. Smith was cleared to play last year after a concussion, but Colin Kaepernick got the “hot hand” nod and Smith was sent packing to Kansas City over the offseason.

Mathews has dealt with fumble issues and people constantly questioning his toughness. This year he shared San Diego’s backfield with Danny Woodhead, who was one of Philip Rivers’s favorite targets early in the season. But Mathews emerged as a leader for the offense during their four-game winning streak to make the cut for the playoffs.

Grimes, coming off that injury and standing at just 5’ 10” as a cornerback, had to settle for a one-year deal with Miami. He’s a Pro Bowler this season after emerging as not only one of the best cover corners in football but also one of the best tacklers at the position.

Smith is on my list because people are forever questioning him. They say he sucked early in his career, but he only started 8+ games once in his first three seasons. In 2011 they said he sucked because he only threw 17 touchdowns, even though he also only threw 5 interceptions and led his team to a shootout win against the Saints in the playoffs. And going into 2013 they conveniently forgot his 13:5 TD-to-INT ratio in nine games before his injury last season. This year he threw 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and turned the Chiefs’ run offense into a juggernaut capable of beating you on the ground or in the air.

6. Old and New Coaches

The Titans joined the search for a new head coach when they fired Mike Munchak on Saturday. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see the Bengals join the hunt, too, after Marvin Lewis lost his fifth playoff game in five tries.

Two teams have already found their men. The Houston Texans fired interim head coach Wade Phillips and hired Penn State coach Bill O’Brien.

In Tampa, the Buccaneers want to separate themselves from the image Greg Schiano gave them. I’d say they did a pretty damn good job by grabbing Lovie Smith, the former Bears team that took Rex Grossman to the Super Bowl. Did you hear that? He took Rex Grossman to a Super Bowl. As a starting quarterback. Why did the Bears fire him, again?

7. Comeback Wild Card

In three of this year’s wild card games, the winning team was trailing at halftime. Only the San Francisco 49ers were able to keep control of the game through the second half, albeit just barely.

The Colts trailed 31-10 at halftime and 38-10 less than two minutes into the third quarter. They came back to win 45-44.

The Saints trailed 7-6 at the half and then scored the first 14 points of the third quarter. They won 26-24 on a last-second field goal by Shayne Graham. I wonder if Garrett Hartley would have gone 4-for-4 on field goals on Saturday?

And the Bengals held a 10-7 advantage before collapsing only slightly less embarrassingly than the Chiefs. The Chargers outscored Cincinnati 20-0 in the second half of that game.

8. Home Teams Beware

Only the Indianapolis Colts won at home on wild card weekend, and they needed a miraculous comeback to do so. It seems like this is a trend of the past few years and the bye week teams better look out.

9. Streak Breaker

The last game of the divisional round will break one of two streaks. The last four teams to visit Philadelphia for the Eagles’ regular season home opener have gone on to win the Super Bowl. The Saints beat the Eagles in 2009 and went on to beat the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.

The Packers beat Philly in 2010 and then beat Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV. Then in 2011 the Giants won in Philly’s home opener and went on to beat New England in Super Bowl XLVI.

Last year the Ravens lost to the Eagles in that Philly home opener but still won the Super Bowl, proving that you don’t have to spoil Philadelphia’s home opener.

This year, the San Diego Chargers won 33-30 in Week 2 in Philadelphia and will have a chance to continue that streak with a win on Sunday in Denver.

But Peyton Manning has never lost twice at home to the same team in a single season. In fact, the only time he has lost twice in the same stadium to a single opponent was in 2004 when he lost the season opener in New England and then lost in Foxboro in the playoffs.

10. Power Rankings

My power rankings went 2-2 last week. New Orleans was ranked above Philly and San Francisco ahead of Green Bay. But both Cincinnati and Kansas City were ranked higher than their opponents in the wild card round, so maybe my calculation only works for NFC teams.

Anyway, I’ve recalculated everything for just the eight remaining teams, so here are the updated power rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks (1.514)	5. Carolina Panthers (2.771)
2. Denver Broncos (2.264)	6. Indianapolis Colts (3.365)
3. New Orleans Saints (2.551)	7. New England Patriots (3.382)
4. San Francisco 49ers (2.679)	8. San Diego Chargers (3.708)

So according to these rankings, Seattle and Denver should both win easily since they are playing at home against lower ranked teams. Meanwhile the Patriots and Panthers are ranked lower than the teams they are hosting, but not by much, so the home field advantage may well overcome the difference.

Or my rankings calculation could just be way off. Eh, it’s just for fun anyway. I like manipulating numbers.