Super Bowl XLVI Recap

Wow. Is it too much to say that the sequel was better than the original?

Yeah, that’s what I thought. That might be a little bit of a stretch, but it was pretty darn close.

I won’t try to hide that I am very happy the Giants won. But I am even happier that the game was so close. I have my ties to specific teams, but I am first and foremost an NFL fan. I will be excited for the Super Bowl if my least favorite teams from each conference are in it (sorry, Eagles in the NFC and Raiders and Patriots in the AFC) as occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX. I was just as excited for that Super Bowl as I was yesterday and as I was during the Colts’ two recent Super Bowl appearances.

I can now say with much certainty that my Super Bowl predictions simply do not apply to the Giants. Of the three Super Bowls involving the Giants since I began making my predictions, those same three are the only ones I have predicted incorrectly. Nothing can be said for the Patriots, however, as they have won in every prediction game I have played since 2000 and are now 3-2 in the real deal over that span.

This is the second consecutive (and I believe second overall) year that I have correctly predicted the winning team’s score. Notice that doesn’t say winning score. I predicted the Patriots would win with 35 points, but I predicted the Giants to score 21, which they did. Last year I predicted a 31-30 Packers win and they went on to beat the Steelers 31-25.

Eli Manning, who won Super Bowl MVP honors for the second time, played exceptionally well. Tom Brady played very well, too, though I cannot bring myself to place blame entirely on the receivers for those late drops. Though Welker “makes that catch 100 times out of 100” (thank you Cris Collinsworth), there is no arguing that the pass was a bit high and made for a difficult attempted catch by Wes. Likewise, the 3rd down pass to Branch on the next play was thrown way late and gave the Giants secondary a chance to close in and force Branch into a position where the ball could only glance off his gloves.

Mario Manningham’s catch was sensational. It was a catch I have seen tens of other receivers make in much less important games, but the throw by Manning was unreal and Manningham played it beyond perfectly.

New York’s defensive line deserves a lot of credit. The Patriots got to Manning a fair amount early, but the Giants put the pressure on Brady when it mattered most, when they absolutely has to prevent him to coming through in the clutch.

The only play from this game that might outshine Manningham’s catch 25 years down the road was Bradshaw’s bizarre score with just under a minute left. I said before the play that Manning should just down the ball between the hash marks, though I was more concerned with a fumble than a touchdown. Either way, my dreaded expectation almost came to life, but Gronkowski just missed a diving effort at a tipped pass in the end zone with no time on the clock.

So again I ask, better than the original? I would never claim that, but I will say that they are too close to separate. NFL.com ranks XLII and XLVI #2 and #3 all-time, respectively. I would put them at a tie in the #2 spot, but that is one man’s opinion, and they make good points for theirs as well. You can read their take here: Super Bowl XLVI definitely ranks in top three

Thank you to everyone for reading all season. I will be writing about what some teams need to do over the offseason, but I will not be posting separately for each team this year. Instead I will just make a few points about each team’s offseason needs, in my opinion, and separate posts by division.

Let me know if there is anything I could do next season to make my posts more interesting. I love having people read my blog, but want them to feel like they are getting something out of it, too.

I hope everyone enjoyed the 2011-12 NFL season as much as I did and I look forward to the offseason and what next fall brings.

Super Bowl XLVI Prediction

The Super Bowl is just hours away and I now have my prediction for this year’s game. Of course, you may choose to take the following with a grain of salt. In the 11 years I have used Madden to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl I am 9-2. Both incorrect predictions have been in the games involving the Giants, XXXV against the Ravens and XLII against the Patriots.

The Giants won the toss and chose to receive. Eli Manning wasted no time in reverting to his 2010 self, throwing a pick on his first pass of the game. The Patriots used the short field and Green-Ellis finished off the drive with a goal-line touchdown to put the Patriots on the board first.

After the two teams exchanged possessions, the Giants finally got a sustained drive going, but had to settle for a mid-range field goal to cut into New England’s lead.

Defense dominated early, as the score remained the same for the next 15 minutes. Finally, on a 3rd & 17, Tom Brady flipped the ball to Danny Woodhead on a screen pass for a long touchdown.

Da’Rel Scott, a rookie for the University of Maryland I might add, took the ensuing kickoff 97 yards to pay dirt to keep the score close. That element didn’t last long, however.

The Giants turned the ball over seven times in the game, four times on Eli Manning interceptions and three times on failed fourth down conversions. A third Manning interception and a failed fourth-down conversion allowed the Patriots to score twice more before the first half ended with a score of 28-10.

The Patriots took the ball first in the second half but the Giants limited their turnovers for most of the second half and their defense continued to play well. Tynes chipped into the Patriots lead mid-way through the 3rd quarter but that was as close as the Giants would get. Devin McCourty took Manning’s fourth interception back for a touchdown on New York’s next drive.

A late-fourth quarter touchdown pass to Victor Cruz and a successful two-point conversion rounded out the scoring for the game.

Tom Brady finished the game 23/30 for 219 yards, 2 TDs and 2 picks. Manning threw four interceptions and just one touchdown while going 28/47 for 263 yards.

Green-Ellis scored the games only two rushing touchdowns, though Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combines for 89 yards on 23 carries.

Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz, and Deon Branch all had 7 catches. Cruz led the Giants in yards with 110 while Wes Welker gained a team high 58 receiving yards for New England.

Perhaps the most dooming stat for the Giants was found in the sack column. The Giants registered just one sack, made by Justin Tuck. The Patriots took Manning down five times, three of them by Shaun Ellis.

The final stat of interested was that all six interceptions in the game were made by different players.

Below is the scoring summary of the game.


Scoring Summary:

Quarter 1

(NE) B. Green-Ellis, 1 Yd run (S. Gostkowski kick), 12:48
(NYG) L. Tynes, 35 Yd FG, 6:53

Quarter 2

(NE) D. Woodhead 42 Yd pass from T. Brady (S. Gostkowski kick), 6:34
(NYG) D. Scott, returned kickoff 97 Yds (L. Tynes kick), 6:21
(NE) B. Green-Ellis, 1 Yd run (S. Gostkowski kick), 1:22
(NE) W. Welker 34 Yd pass from T. Brady (S. Gostkowski kick), 0:32

Quarter 3

(NYG) L. Tynes, 39 Yd FG, 7:49
(NE) D. McCourty, returned interception 21 Yds (S. Gostkowski kick), 4:53

Quarter 4

(NYG) V. Cruz 6 Yd pass from E. Manning (2pt – Manning to Barden), 5:01


Once again, this is not the worst outcome for the Giants. In fact, if those two incorrect picks were indeed significant due to the Giants’ presence, this could actually be the best outcome they could hope for.

I am currently on a three-game streak of correct predictions. Last year was my second closest prediction, as my game concluded with the correct score for the Packers was five more points than the Steelers would score. My closest prediction came in 2002 for Super Bowl XXXVI, when my game finished with a 21-17 win for the Patriots. They went on to beat the Rams 20-17 that evening.
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As always, I would like to thank you for reading and I invite you to read my recap post tomorrow. No worries, it will be much shorter than my first recap from last year’s Super Bowl.

My pick:

New England beats New York, 35-21

Super Week: Two Days Away

Super Bowl XLVI is so close and the anticipation is starting to get to me. The media has been in a whirlwind all week, trying to keep up with the development of everything Peyton Manning while also covering the two teams that this week is truly about.

While there is more going on around the NFL than the storylines of Manning and the 46th playing of the Super Bowl, they by far overshadow anything else the league has had to offer the past several days. However, before I get to those two topics, I’ll provide a brief summary of some other news of the week.

Roger Goodell held a press conference earlier today and I really liked what I heard. He touched on several topics, including the possibility of expanding the NFL to Los Angeles, issues concerning concussions and HGH testing, Thursday Night Football in 2012, and more. To go into detail would make this way too long, so instead I will link to the video of his press conference at the end of this post.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee will meet tomorrow to make a final decision on the Class of 2012. I will also link to a list of the semifinalists at the end of this post. Personally, I am hoping that Cris Carter and Don Coryell will be two members of this year’s class. Watch NFL Network at 5:30 p.m. Saturday to see who is elected to the Hall of Fame.

I don’t want to spend much time on the topic of Peyton Manning because I know a lot of people are tired of hearing about him and, quite frankly, I’m more focused on this Sunday’s game.

Sometime last night, the doctor who performed his surgery, according to several sources, cleared Manning to resume his career. Colts owner Jim Irsay tweeted shortly after,

"Peyton has not passed our physical nor has he been cleared to play for The Indianapolis Colts. Team statement coming on Friday."

I have yet to hear any official statement, but there certainly seems to be some tension remaining despite the joint statement made by the two parties earlier this week.

The excitement surrounding this weekend is sky-high right now. Almost two weeks ago, after the conclusion of the NFC Championship in San Francisco, I could swear I heard a massive groan from the sports fans of America. Nobody seemed to be all that interested in the Super Bowl XLII rematch. But as the week has progressed I think many people have warmed up to the matchup.

The Giants’ defensive line is almost certainly better than it was in 2007, as are Eli Manning and the receiving corps on offense. The Giants, who barely sneaked off with the NFC East title, are the hottest team in the league right now. Though the Patriots have gone longer since their last loss (to the Giants in week 9), their defense hasn’t faced a particularly strong offense since then. The only possible exception would be the Redskins in week 14 because they turned their level of play up, but even saying that was a strong offense is a major stretch.

As funny as it sounds, the roles may be reversed this year from those of the 2007 Super Bowl. The Patriots will have to run with the Giants on Sunday, but they will need their tight ends at full strength to do so. Rob Gronkowski (left ankle) was listed as questionable today for Sunday’s game. However, he was seen practicing with no limp today. If he is indeed healthy and ready to go Sunday evening, the Giants’ linebackers and secondary will have their hands full.

One big question I’m looking forward to having answered is whether Chad Ochocinco will finally be used this weekend. He wasn’t a big part of the New England offense at any time during the season, but that could make him all the more effective.

I will play Madden on Sunday morning to determine my prediction for the game. I have played a ‘dress rehearsal’ game of just four-minute quarters and came out with a 17-0 score in favor of the Patriots. I also played an online game as the Patriots against another person playing as the Giants and won 27-0. Not good news (or maybe very good news) for the Giants, but we will see how the real deal goes.

Be sure to check out my prediction post on Sunday and you can now follow my blog on Twitter: @PuffontheNFL

Links:

Roger Goodell Press Conference

Semifinalists - HOF Class of 2012

Super Week: 2011 Postseason Rewind

The 2011 NFL Season has been a treat. The summer lock out seems like ages ago after the regular season held perhaps more excitement than any other in recent memory. With no training camp, Cam Newton came in and played shockingly well in Carolina on his way to setting the all-time record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a single season. The Packers nearly went undefeated until a Romeo Crennel coached Chiefs knocked them off; then their playoff run ended before it started. And, of course, no recap of the 2011 season would be complete without mentioning Dan Marino’s record of more than a quarter century being broken by Drew Brees (and by Tom Brady).

The postseason has been no different. With the exception of the Atlanta Falcons (and the Broncos in the divisional round), each team has played at a level to make every game competitive and exciting. When one team excelled, their opponent stepped up to plate and hit it out of the park, too. When other teams underperformed, so did their opponent so those game could go down to the wire as well.

Unfortunately I only got to watch parts of the wild-card games live, so I missed out on the true excitement from Tim Tebow’s overtime win, T.J. Yates’s winning the duel of rookie quarterbacks against Cincinnati, and Drew Brees out-Breesing Matt Stafford.

The only game I predicted incorrectly in the divisional round was my prediction that the Saints would knock off the 49ers in an instant classic. I like to give myself half-credit for predicting a truly exciting game, but the 49ers took care of business and Alex Smith finally justified that #1 draft pick in 2005. I never expected the Broncos to be close, but what the Patriots did to Tebow was just wrong. These playoffs could have ranked among the best ever if we had even had a chance of another edition of Tebow Time.

The Giants knocked off the Packers, and I have my gut to thank for that correct prediction. I’ve ignored my gut before, when it told me to predict my Terps to win the National Championship in 2002 before the season began and when it told me to pick the Giants over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I went with it this time and it paid off.

The Texans receivers struggled against Baltimore, but then Yates wasn’t fantastic either. But that was still a pretty exciting game as the Ravens squeaked by with yet another postseason win for Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.

Jim Harbaugh has had a fantastic season and is absolutely deserving of Coach of the Year honors, but rookie coaches don’t usually have the kind of success he’s had, and Giants put a stop to it last weekend. I don’t know what it is with New York, but December and January have ‘Giants’ written all over them. The Manning family has their 4th Super Bowl appearance in six seasons, and a chance for ring number three.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady had a lackluster performance against Baltimore, but the Ravens failed to capitalize for most of the game. Then, two jaw-dropping moments ended the game as a potential game-winning touchdown pass by Joe Flacco was dropped in the end zone just before Lee Evans got his second foot down. Then Billy Cundiff rushed onto the field and more than missed the game-tying field goal. We were denied a second overtime conference championship game and were awarded a rematch of the Super Bowl XLII.

This past weekend I turned on the Pro Bowl for a little while, but the uninspired play early in the game quickly turned me off and reminded me why nobody watches it. I got to see some fantastic replays after the game, such as Brandon Marshall’s 3rd of four touchdown receptions when it bounced off two defenders, off his own knee, and into his hands while on the ground in the end zone.

Now we have just one game left. I watched a 9-minute video of Eli Manning speaking to reporters yesterday and look forward to a chance to see more as videos from today’s Media Day as the week progresses. As those of you who read my blog last year know, I never make my Super Bowl prediction until I use Madden the morning of the game, and I have only been wrong twice in the past. In fact, last year I correctly predicted the Packers final score and was only five points off for the Steelers.

Of course, it should be noted that the two Super Bowls I have incorrectly predicted both involved the Giants. I picked the Giants to beat the Ravens in the first Super Bowl I ever predicted using this method and my game of Madden predicted the Patriots to beat the Giants in 2007, leading to me ignoring my gut as I mentioned before.

My point in bringing that up is that though I am 9-2 in Super Bowl predictions, I am 0-2 when the Giants are involved. However, I finally found a real good custom difficulty setting that I’ve been playing with this season and have it pretty much perfect, so I’ll be changing the parameters of the game slightly from previous predictions and hopefully that will lead to a more accurate result this time around.

If I don’t post again until the morning of the Super Bowl, be sure to either come directly here for that prediction or ‘like’ Puff on the NFL on Facebook to see when that post goes up. Enjoy Super Bowl week and thanks for reading!