2014 NFL Afterword

Cory Puffett

It’s been almost eleven months since I’ve written a non-fantasy football blog post, and it’s with a very different perspective that I write this one.

I spent the 2013 season writing almost every single day, whether it was recapping or previewing games, trying to give you the low-down on the most important news of the week, or keeping you in the loop on my fantasy football league during it’s inaugural season.

Last year was the most fun I’ve had blogging about the NFL, and part of that was because my co-hosts on Football Freaks contributed to my blog from time to time. It’s the closest I’ve come to feeling like a professional NFL analyst.

This year I needed the time off from writing. I switched my college major and needed to get and stay on track with schoolwork. Hopefully I can return near last year’s production in 2015, but that’ll be determined at a later date.

In the mean time, I watched plenty of football this season, but not like last year.

Last year I watched football all day every Sunday and I would catch a lot of the games I missed on NFL Game Rewind. I haven’t gotten around to watching games that weren’t televised here this season, so I have a vastly different perspective when looking back on the regular season than I did at this time last year.

The 2014 season was certainly interesting, but it felt strange. My focus for most of the season was on fantasy football, so rather than analyzing teams every week, I was focused on individual players. I spent more time focusing on my team, the Redskins, rather than the rest of the league.

Of course, I was very in tune with what players were doing from one week to the next, but most weeks I couldn’t tell you which teams were really gelling and which were pretenders.

That said, there are a few things I do want to bring up in closing the 2014 season.

1. Romo haters can find someone new to harass

I still have Aaron Rodgers slated as my MVP, but Tony Romo is a very close second. Against the Redskins on Sunday he threw his first and only December interception of 2014. He finished the year with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions to go with a completion percentage of 69.9, more than three percentage points higher than any other season of his career in which he played at least half the season.

Obviously his haters won’t find a new target, they can come up with all kinds of things to say about the 2014 edition of Romo. He had the best offensive line in football, true. He had DeMarco Murray, true. He had Dez Bryant, true. But tell me your MVP favorite and I’ll give you another player with plenty of guys around him.

2. Peyton Manning is on the decline

Personally, I think the same can be said for Tom Brady, but after the way he rebounded earlier this season, I’m going to wait on that one. Peyton, however, seems to be a different issue. Kurt Warner argues that Peyton isn’t really declining, the Broncos are just focusing too much on the run game and are taking Manning out of his rhythm.

While Warner’s statement may have some merit, this is the best regular season quarterback of all time we’re talking about. Some would argue, and I myself have in the past, that he is the greatest quarterback of all time. He has never consistently thrown a tight spiral, but I can’t remember the last time he had a four- or five-game stretch with as many ducks as he’s thrown these past several weeks.

I’m not counting the Broncos out this postseason, but I have a feeling that if they manage to get back to the Super Bowl, it will be due to their run game and a defense that is much better than it was in 2013.

3. Seattle is no Super Bowl lock

Don’t get me wrong; the Seahawks can get there. If I’m not counting Denver out, there’s no way I can count out Seattle and still have any shred of merit as a football analyst. Seattle’s defense is every bit as good as it was last year. I’ve seen some inconsistencies that are a bit concerning, but the talent is all there and I have to believe they’ll pull it together in their playoff games.

But the offense is more than a little concerning. From what little I’ve seen of them, mixed with studying score sheets, this seems to be one of the more inconsistent units in the NFL. Obviously they had some issued early in the season, but even over the past month it seems like they’re hit or miss. I haven’t seen enough to say whether it’s play calling or Russell Wilson or something else, but even with the road to Super Bowl XLIX going through the pacific northwest, I’m not ready hand it to them.

4. Joe Flacco had a very solid 2014 season

I’m still hesitant to give him too much credit because of how quickly Baltimore fans are to take it to the bank. He’s still not elite.

However, I have to give credit where it is due and this was probably the second best season he’s had to date. Flacco set a career high for touchdown passes with 27 and threw just 12 picks. He even had eight games without an interception and, granted it was against Tampa Bay, a five-touchdown game. I don’t put much stock into his career-high 67.27 QBR because I’m not a fan of the stat, but his 90.9 passer rating was the second best of his career.

I’m not sold on Baltimore for the playoffs, but that’s mostly because of their poor passing defense. Their passing offense sits squarely in the middle of the NFL, which is good enough to get to the Super Bowl with a good defense. I just have a few too many questions about that side of the ball to give this team a shot at more than one playoff win.

5. Andrew Luck has not separated himself from the 2013 QBs

It sure seemed like he had during the first half of the 2014 season. In fact, he had separated himself from all QBs. He had the most touchdowns, the most yards, and don’t quote me on it but I think he had the best completion percentage at one point early in the season.

Maybe it was the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw, or maybe it was the sheer number of passes he’d already thrown, but Luck slipped back to the land of the mortals very quickly during the second half of the season. Early in the season he had his share of turnover problems, but his other production more than made up for that. The problem was he only had three turnover-free games all season and his production of late has been poor. After throwing for 300 yards and/or three touchdowns in each of his first ten games, he’s managed to do so just once in his past six, during which time he’s thrown six interceptions and lost four fumbles.

I will preview this weekend’s wild card games later this week. If you’d like to get my take on any other NFL topics, drop me a line and I’ll publish another post. Also, we plan to do an All-Sports Crew podcast this week, so look for a link to that on Facebook, Twitter or Google+ on Thursday or Friday.

Meyer’s Super Bowl Assessment

The Broncos got off to a rough start in Super Bowl XLVIII with
some miscommunication between Peyton Manning and his center.

Eric Meyer

Peyton Manning completed 34 of 49 passes for 280 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. His passer rating was a meager 73.5. Manning also had a fumble and missed twice on fourth down opportunities. The supposed greatest offense in NFL history scored a measly 8 points to Seattle’s 43 in Super Bowl XLVIII. Talk about a choke job, right?

Wrong.

The narrative of Peyton Manning being a lackluster postseason performer has some merit. An 11-12 postseason record (1-2 in Super Bowls) along with some less-than-stellar statistics give that argument some life. Manning hasn’t always had his best showings in January and has lost in pretty shocking and ignominious fashion in the past. But that narrative is inappropriate right now.

The reality is that Manning and the Denver Broncos lost on Sunday because they played a team that was so much better than them that they couldn’t even put up a fight. The narrative for this game ought to be that Seattle’s historically good defense went out and destroyed the league’s top offense.

Any talk of the Broncos squandering an opportunity or “choking” or not showing up is an insult to Seattle’s dominance. The fact is that the Broncos didn’t have a chance to choke. They didn’t have an opportunity to squander. They simply could not compete.

NFL fans, and even experts, do a funny thing when it comes to discussing quarterbacks and their legacies. Countless pundits and analysts will say that Sunday’s loss will stain Manning’s legacy, that he can’t be the greatest ever with a losing record in the Super Bowl.

What these pundits don’t realize is that by slamming Peyton Manning for not performing, they are implying that Seattle was a defense that Manning should have been able to beat. That couldn’t be further from the truth. You can say that Manning played poorly, and you’d be absolutely right. But he played poorly because Seattle forced him to hurry, to force it, and to throw underneath for minimal yardage.

The only conclusion that I draw about Denver from Sunday’s game is that their offense, and by extension Manning, was slightly overrated this year. Manning was the no-brainer MVP and his record-setting season deserves praise. However, the “greatest offense in NFL history” should score more than 8 points, regardless of whom they’re playing.

Denver had the luxury of playing a weak schedule almost all season, which undoubtedly inflated their scoring statistics. They had a perfect storm of sublime quarterbacking, a phenomenal supporting cast and a full helping of weak defenses to abuse. They shattered records as a result.

Because of their prowess, we put Denver on a pedestal. We concluded that they were an unstoppable unit and assumed Seattle would simply have to contain Manning, not dominate him. As a result, we act shocked. But we shouldn’t be.

Seattle’s defense was vastly superior to Denver’s offense, and it showed. Some would say that this was an embarrassing loss for Denver, but as Manning said, “The word ‘embarrassing’ is an insulting word, to tell you the truth.” I couldn’t agree more with that assessment.

The Great Debate: Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady

Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? The debate has gone on for years.

Cory Puffett

I’ll be honest, after the way the Patriots whooped Peyton Manning’s butt last week I toyed with the idea of not writing this at all. Tom Brady didn’t play a great game, but he played a great third quarter. Peyton Manning didn’t play a great game; in fact, he played a horrid game.

But one game does not define a career; one game does not change who or what a given player is.

Peyton Manning is great. Tom Brady is great. Whether you are a Peyton fan, a Brady fan, or are not crazy about either, both of those statements are absolutely accurate. Yes, I am going to make a case for why I think one is a better quarterback than the other. But I hope it is clear that I mean no disrespect to either player. Both are great in their own right and I would be shocked if either is not a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Unless you don’t know me and have never read my blog, you know that I am a huge Peyton Manning fan. He is my favorite professional athlete. So I’ll understand if you consider my forthcoming argument to be biased. For many years, it was.

But as I have matured (and I’m not done yet) as a football analyst, I have realized that just because I like one more than the other, it does not mean I have to believe that player is better than the other. In this case, however, I truly believe Peyton Manning is a cut above Brady.

But why?

Argument for Tom Brady

Brady fans always make the same argument. He has three Super Bowl rings, five appearances, and has the most career playoff wins of any quarterback in NFL history.

These stats are all well and good, and I’m not going to open a can of worms by bringing up Spygate. Whether that has anything to do with New England’s recent playoff struggles, I don’t think it matters in looking at Tom Brady. These are all team achievements. If anything, I think it is more telling that the Patriots have struggled in the playoffs since their defense regressed from the great units they had in the early 2000s.

Argument for Peyton Manning

Four MVPs.

Ridiculous. How is this an argument? While MVPs are much more telling of an individual player’s achievements than are Super Bowls and win percentages, the MVP award is also very circumstantial. Though Peyton absolutely earned every one of those four awards, there were other quarterbacks that were as, or nearly as, deserving as Peyton in three of those four seasons.

Again, this is not a sound argument.

Comparing Peyton & Tom

Peyton Manning entered the league two seasons before Tom Brady. Brady did not start any games in his rookie season. They have each missed, essentially, a full season (for all intents and purposes, Brady missed the entire 2008 season).

So Manning has 15 seasons under his belt while Brady has 12 (this includes the 11 games each has played this season). Because of this disparity we cannot use career numbers such as total yards, total touchdowns, etc. Instead, we’ll look mostly at per/season statistics.

Yards per Season

Peyton – 4213.9

Tom – 3968.3 (-245.6)

Touchdowns per Season

Peyton – 31.5

Tom – 29.25 (-2.25)

Interceptions per Season

Tom – 10.8

Peyton – 14.4 (+3.6)

Career Completions Percentage

Peyton – 65.4%

Tom – 63.5% (-1.9)

Career Passer Rating

Peyton – 96.7

Tom – 95.9 (-0.8)

Overall, these stats are pretty inconclusive. Though Peyton leads four of the five, his completion percentage and passer rating are not that far ahead. And though Peyton does lead in yards per season by a pretty sizeable margin, Tom has a little better TD/INT radio, at 2.68 to 2.19 for Manning.

So let’s look at the playoffs. Tom Brady has played 24 playoff games, compared to 20 for Peyton Manning. This time, we’ll look at per game stats.

Yards per Game

Peyton – 284.0

Tom – 247.9 (-36.1)

Touchdowns per Game

Tom – 1.75

Peyton – 1.60 (-0.15)

Interceptions per Game

Tom – 0.9

Peyton – 1.1 (+0.2)

Completion Percentage

Peyton – 63.2

Tom – 62.3 (-0.9)

Passer Rating

Peyton – 88.4

Tom – 87.4 (-1.0)

Again, these numbers are fairly inconclusive. However, I will point out that Peyton has a better career passer rating in the playoffs despite throwing for slightly fewer touchdowns and slightly more interceptions per game, which is interesting.

So this all brings me to…

My Pro Manning Arguments

1

You can take or leave what I am about to say. At this point, it truly does become slightly more based in opinion and slightly less based in fact. I’ve explained why I don’t believe that Super Bowls, MVPs, or win percentages can be used as the foundation of an argument over who is the better quarterback.

I’ve also shown that, (a) despite Brady being heralded as the greatest playoff quarterback of all time, Peyton’s numbers are every bit as good, as well as (b) despite Manning being called the greatest regular season quarterback of all time, Brady isn’t all that far off in a lot of categories. In fact, Brady is right on Manning’s tail in other categories I didn’t even mention, such as game-winning drives per season.

My argument is based on mechanics. Starting with pocket awareness and the footwork needed to use that awareness to his advantage. I argue strongly that Peyton Manning is the second best active quarterback in both of these categories. Ben Roethlisberger is the only player who can move around inside the pocket at a higher level than Manning. Peyton always has his feet moving in the pocket, ready to pivot, turn his hips, climb the pocket, side step…anything he needs to do to avoid the rush.

You’ll argue that Manning has had consistently better blocking than Tom Brady is. Though that certainly wasn’t true for the final three years or so of Manning’s time as a starter in Indianapolis, it was absolutely true earlier in his career. But is there a line in football that can give up less than 20 sacks a season every season? Well, even with the poorer lines he had late in his career as a Colt, and the poor line he’s dealt with this season, Peyton has only been sacked about 18 times per season, compared to about 28 times per season for Brady.

Blame the lines all you want, but considering how many fewer drop backs Brady has than Manning each season, I firmly believe pocket presence is the bigger factor here.

2

My next argument has to do with football IQ. Again, this is not a knock on Tom Brady. I just consider Peyton’s to be a little higher. I’ll admit that sometimes it works to Manning’s disadvantage because he tries to do too much. Peyton opened the door for the no-huddle offense to become commonplace in the NFL. Both quarterbacks run it efficiently. But the style that New England runs is much more basic. That’s not to say that basic isn’t effective. It clearly has been in New England. But Manning runs a much more complex style of no-huddle and it’s mind-numbing that he can keep all the calls straight.

When he was in Indianapolis, I heard and read stories on a weekly basis about how Peyton or his receiver would realize that the defense has caught on to one or more of their signals. Manning’s off-the-charts football IQ allowed him to take those signals, and change them to mean something else that would not negatively impact the blocking and other routes on the play. It may not sound hard, but it’s not easy to change something on the fly like that and not have receivers crossing paths or blocking assignments missed.

I’ve never heard of Brady doing anything like this. Coach Belichick is in control of that team. Knowing Belichick’s ego, or lack thereof, if Brady had the ability to do that on the fly the way Peyton does, he wouldn’t stop Brady from doing so.

3

Defenses. Peyton hasn’t had them, Brady has. The Patriots had top 10 defenses for their 2003 and 2004 Super Bowl years, and though their defense wasn’t highly ranked in 2001, they did give up the 6^th fewest points that season.

During Indy’s 2006 Super Bowl season, the defense was ranked 21^st in yards allowed and 23^rd in points allowed. The offensive run game was ranked 18^th in yards. Peyton won despite them.

During New England’s 2007 16-0 season, the defense was ranked 4^th in both yards and points allowed. Brady lost in the Super Bowl despite them.

Now again, these are single games. The Colts stepped up in the playoffs in 2006, and Manning didn’t have a particularly great Super Bowl performance. And New England’s offense as a whole played bad in the 2007 Super Bowl, it wasn’t just Brady. But it may convince some of you that Peyton isn’t the only one who has played poorly in a few important games.

4

My final argument is based on coaching, and it might be my weakest one, which is why I saved it for last.

Bill Belichick will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Tony Dungy may find himself in Canton one day, but he won’t make it on his first ballot. He was never a great coach. He was a good coach made more popular by his strong faith and work with Fellowship of Christian Athletes.

As for Jim Caldwell, I can’t imagine anybody would disagree when I say Peyton carried him to the Super Bowl.

We all saw what happened to Caldwell when Peyton was unavailable in 2011. I doubt Dungy, a defensive coach who never seemed to put a particularly good unit together, would have done much better.

Bill Belichick managed to win 10 games with Matt Cassel at quarterback in 2008. Let me be clear: I am not saying that Tom Brady is a product of Belichick’s system. I’m just saying that Belichick’s offensive system is built so that quarterbacks of different abilities can succeed and won’t cause the rest of the offense to suffer. But it does make me wonder if Brady would have a .773 regular season winning percentage if Belichick weren’t his coach.

Conclusion

Goes against my prior arguments, but
with recent playoff woes, this may
be a fair solution.

Again, I have a great level of respect for both of these players. Both of them play huge roles in the history of the NFL. Other current quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger are also very good, maybe as good right now, and may be compared to Manning and Brady one day in terms of career accomplishments.

You look at the great quarterbacks of the past. Dan Marino is considered one of the best despite never winning a Super Bowl. Joe Montana only had a few big-number seasons in his career, and managed not to have his numbers shoot up even once Jerry Rice came to town. John Elway may be the most clutch quarterback of all time.

And of course you have to talk about Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr, Otto Graham and others.

But Manning and Brady will likely go down as the best two to ever play the game. It would be a damn shame if we all do what I used to do, hope one fails so the one I prefer will be remembered as the greatest.

So while I won’t ever be hoping for Brady to fail, I am going to stick to my guns and my sincere belief that Peyton Manning is the better of the two active NFL greats, at least until further notice.

Thursday Night Football Afterword: Broncos vs Ravens

The Broncos hosted the 2012 NFL Champion Ravens last night.
Photo credit to SNF on NBC on Facebook.

Last night’s game was rather odd in a way. Early in the 4^th quarter I found myself, dare I say it, bored. The Broncos led 42-17, Peyton Manning had tied two NFL records and set a third, and it looked to be just a matter of running the final thirteen minutes off the clock.

Instead, the game suddenly took an ugly turn for the better as Danny Trevathan picked off a 4^th & 1 pass by Joe Flacco, took it within two yards of the end zone, then dropped it a la DeSean Jackson and Leon Lett, giving the Ravens the ball at the 20 rather than the Broncos a 49-17 lead.

Joe Flacco made quick work of the Denver defense, completing all four of his attempts and taking advantage of a 15-yard facemask penalty by Raheem Moore to take Baltimore to a touchdown. After a three-and-out by Denver, Flacco again drove Baltimore down the field but they had to settle for a field goal to make it a two-possession game at 42-27.

On the third play of the following drive, Manning saw an opening in the defense and audibled into one of his favorite plays, one that has resulted in a touchdown nearly every time he’s called it in Denver, a screen pass to Demaryius Thomas, and the play went for 78 yards and Manning’s 7^th touchdown pass of the game.

Before you buy into all the hype ESPN is dishing about the Broncos or against the Ravens, lets remember that this was one game. Our focus should be on Peyton Manning’s historic night, on the fact that Denver’s defense set out to prove that they could hold their own without Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, on Baltimore’s receivers letting down Joe Flacco with several drops on well-placed balls, and one John Harbaugh’s assistant coaches letting him down on a crucial complete pass to Wes Welker that should have been challenged and reversed.

Yes Denver proved to be a dominant team in last night’s game, but this is still a defense that struggled last night. Drops by Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark and others kept this game from being close throughout.

And before we right off Baltimore, keep in mind that these young offensive players, as well as those new to the system, will get in rhythm with Joe Flacco at some point, and the defense will mesh. It wasn’t very fair to them to be pitted against the best slew of receivers an NFL team has to offer right now.

Be sure to listen to Football Freaks tonight at 7pm on WMUC Sports and follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2013 Week 1 Preview: Broncos vs Ravens

Joe Flacco graces Mile High Stadium alongside Denver's quarterback.
Photo credit to TheBigLead.com.

As the catchy commercial featuring Youth Lagoon’s “Daydream” has been saying for the past few weeks, football is back!!

Due to a scheduling conflict with the Baltimore Orioles (Ravens fans have no-one to blame but their neighbors), the defending Super Bowl champions will open the season on the road, a mile above sea level, in Denver.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos saw their Super Bowl hopes die in the same stadium, against the same team, in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs. With Von Miller serving the first of a six-game suspension, and Elvis Dumervil lining up on the other side of the ball this time around, it will be no small task to reverse their fortunes and open the season with a victory.

There are plenty of new faces on Baltimore’s defense, and absent faces on both sides of the ball. Ray Lewis is retired, Ed Reed is in Houston, Corey Webster is in New York and, on offense, Anquan Boldin is in San Francisco. But the Ravens’ front office has done a good job filling those holes on defense and an adequate job of doing so on offense. This is a team very capable of defending their AFC North crown, though I still say a repeat Super Bowl title is a long-shot.

I expect Ray Rice to gain a lot of yards against a thinned Denver linebacker corps, and Flacco should have plenty of time to read the defense with so many sacks missing from Denver’s front seven.

The question for me is whether the Ravens can keep up with the Broncos’ own high-octane offense. Denver will put up points in every game this season, I don’t care what defense they’re facing. Can Baltimore’s offense avoid their typical post-first-drive slump to keep up? The answer to that question will determine the outcome of the NFL’s season opener.

Follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2012 Pro Bowl Afterword

Jeff Saturday and Peyton Manning hooked up for one more snap in-game
during the Pro Bowl, a special moment for everyone. Photo credit to TeamLeaks.

I said I would recap the Pro Bowl, and so I will, briefly.

There isn’t really much to tell. The players seemed to put forth some effort, at least in the sense that it wasn’t a drag up until the fourth quarter before the game really got going.

But it still was the Pro Bowl. It has a negative connotation, understandably so. Yesterday was just the second time I’ve ever watched a whole Pro Bowl, and I’ll admit that the first time I watched one I wasn’t really paying that close of attention.

I have a feeling that this is how it is for most. They never really watched the Pro Bowl, just heard from a friend who heard from a friend who heard from a friend who read online that it’s a dumb game (and of course nothing online can be a lie – French model?).

It was actually worth watching for several reasons. It’s a great opportunity to see the league’s best players in a relaxed environment. They wanted to win, but they were relaxed. One defender even pulled up a bit when he could have laid a blind-side hit on Drew Brees. Some may look at that as not trying. I see it as a competitor who knows that this game doesn’t really mean much in the long run and doesn’t want a fellow competitor to get hurt playing in a meaningless game.

We all think that the Pro Bowl can’t exist because it isn’t played in the same atmosphere as a playoff, or even regular season or preseason game. I say that is the very reason that the Pro Bowl can exist. It’s different, it’s special, and I respect it for what it is, even if most people can’t because someone told them they shouldn’t.

Those who watched the Pro Bowl witnessed a very special moment. Jeff Saturday, who was the center for the Packers this year after spending many years with Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, was playing for the NFC but came into the AFC huddle and snapped the ball to Manning for one play. I really can’t think of a moment in football that was more special, more touching, than that was.

But now the Pro Bowl is over and we can turn out attention to the Super Bowl. I will begin tomorrow by looking at the NFC representatives, the San Francisco 49ers. Wednesday I will focus on the Baltimore Ravens. My official prediction for Super Bowl XLVII will be published Sunday by noon.

Keep up with new blog posts by ‘liking’ my Facebook page and by following me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.