2013 Preseason Afterword

The 2013 preseason was very interesting and has made me rethink
how the regular season will turn out, as you'll see in my 're-predictions.'

If there’s anything that this year’s preseason taught me, it’s that I was very wise to schedule my fantasy football league’s draft for the Sunday after the last games of the preseason. All these knee injuries, and now Andre Brown’s fractured leg, have ruined several fantasy teams before the season has even started.

But here are a few other interesting notes about this preseason. Do most of them mean anything going forward? No they don’t. But I’m in a generous mood, plus I haven’t written a blog post in a while, so I feel like sharing anyway.

Undefeated Preseason

The Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks each notched their franchises’ third undefeated preseason. For the Redskins, it is the first time since 1985 they have won all four preseason contests. They finished that regular season 10-6 but did not make they playoffs, finishing third in the NFC East.

For Seattle, all three of their 4-0 preseason finishes have come since 2009, and they are the first team since the Baltimore Ravens in 1999 and 2000 to finish the preseason undefeated for two consecutive years (the Ravens also finished undefeated in the 1998 preseason). Only the Packers have had more consecutive undefeated postseasons than the Ravens, with four of them from 1960-63.

Preseason Futility

The Falcons recorded their fourth winless preseason and the Steelers their sixth. For Atlanta, it is their second in three years, but they did make the playoffs in 2011, losing in the wild card round. The Steelers, meanwhile, have never made the playoffs or won more than eight games after going without a win in the preseason.

Only three teams in NFL history have gone 0-4 in the preseason and went on to appear in the Super Bowl. The Bills lost the Super Bowl in 1990 and the Giants lost in 2000. Only the 1982 Redskins have gone winless in a preseason and gone on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Seahawks Strong

Only the Baltimore Ravens scored more points this preseason than Seattle, though that was certainly helped by their 44-point outing against Tampa Bay, who gave up an NFL-worst 115 points over their four games.

On defense, the Seahawks were as strong and deep as they were last year. They gave up jut 36 points, a touchdown fewer than San Francisco and 17-points less than the Redskins.

Tebow Time

Tom Brady did not play in the Patriots’ preseason finale against the New York Giants, but Ryan Mallett led New England to a 14-10 halftime lead.

Tim Tebow played the entire second half, fighting for a place on a Patriots roster that has carried more than two quarterbacks just once in the past four seasons.

New England gave up their lead over the course of the third quarter and entered the final period trailing 20-14. But after nearly 20 months, we finally got another dose of Tebow Time as he hit Quentin Sims for two fourth-quarter touchdown passes, leading New England to a 28-20 victory.

Tebow finished the game 6/11 for 91 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception and an 83.7 passer rating. He was also sacked four times and carried the ball 6 times for 30 yards.

Puff’s Picks

First, I’d like to mention that the six teams I predicted to make the playoffs in the NFC finished a combined 12-12, while my AFC teams finished 15-10 combined (Miami played five games).

With that said, I am going to do something I’ve never done before and re-predict my regular season standings and playoff brackets.

NFC

1.     Chicago Bears (13-3) – NFC North Champions, Home Field Advantage

2.     Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – NFC South Champions, 1^st Round Bye

3.     Washington Redskins (11-5) – NFC East Champions

4.     San Francisco 49ers (11-5) – NFC West Champions

5.     New Orleans Saints (11-5) – 2^nd Place NFC South

6.     Green Bay Packers (11-5) – 2^nd Place NFC North

NFC East

Washington Redskins (11-5)

Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)

New York Giants (8-8)

Dallas Cowboys (7-9)

NFC North

Chicago Bears (13-3)

Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Detroit Lions (8-8)

Minnesota Vikings (4-12)

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

New Orleans Saints (11-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (11-5)

Seattle Seahawks (10-6)

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

St. Louis Rams (6-10)

AFC

1.     Denver Broncos (13-3) – AFC West Champions, Home Field Advantage

2.     New England Patriots (11-5) – AFC East Champions, 1^st Round Bye

3.     Baltimore Ravens (10-6) – AFC North Champions

4.     Houston Texans (10-6) – AFC South Champions

5.     Miami Dolphins (9-7) – 2^nd Place AFC East

6.     Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) – 2^nd Place AFC West

AFC East

New England Patriots (11-5)

Miami Dolphins (9-7)

Buffalo Bills (4-12)

New York Jets (2-14)

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

Cleveland Browns (8-8)

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-10)

AFC South

Houston Texans (10-6)

Tennessee Titans (7-9)

Indianapolis Colts (6-10)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

AFC West

Denver Broncos (13-3)

Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)

San Diego Chargers (8-8)

Oakland Raiders (4-12)

That will do it for today. I will write blog posts daily throughout this season, beginning on Monday, so check back then for new content. Also, I will be with my All-Sports Crew co-hosts tonight recording a new podcast of Football Freaks. You can check that out on The All-Sports Crew’s PodOmatic and iTunes accounts.

You can also like Puff on the NFL and The All-Sports Crew on Facebook and follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl, for links to blog posts and talk show podcasts.

Sunday Night Football Afterword: Cowboys vs Dolphins

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Hall of Fame.

Preseason games are rarely newsworthy. In fact, there is a good chance that I won’t dedicate a whole blog post to any of Washington’s preseason games this year.

The Hall of Fame game is a little different for me. Most importantly, it marks the end of the NFL’s six-month hiatus from on-field action. Baseball usually holds me over, but between my Yankees’ roster changing almost every day and now these PED suspensions, I’m ready to get back to the gridiron.

In addition to marking football’s return, the Hall of Fame game is a great occasion to celebrate all of the members of Pro Football’s Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. The new members offer insight into their induction speeches from the night before, and old members reunite with former teammates and rivals and share stories from their days in the league.

The game itself was pretty much what you expect a preseason game to be. We didn’t see very much from the starters, but we got our first sense of which backups will make the 53-man roster.

I think the player who stood out the most to me was Phillip Tanner, the Cowboys’ running back in his fourth year out of Middle Tennessee State. On one play, he was hit so hard his helmet flew off, and he still bounced off the tackle and kept running despite a new rule that calls the play dead as soon as the runner’s helmet comes off. He made several other spectacular plays spinning out of tackles, bouncing off defenders and hitting holes through the trenches.

Miami struggled, but nobody should expect their second and third string defense to do very well. They have a very solid starting unit, but Joe Philbin hasn’t had enough time in Miami to get the depth that unit wants. On offense, losing Reggie Bush hurts them, but I think their running game will still do well enough as long as Mike Wallace is healthy and can be used as a threat down the field. I look forward to seeing him player later in the preseason.

As for Dallas, they didn’t play very many of their starters at all in this game, but their backups were clearly better than Miami’s. Unfortunately, in the preseason there isn’t much more analysis you can get beyond that.

Be sure to keep an eye out for blog posts throughout the preseason, as well as podcasts of The All-Sports Crew and our new NFL show. I post links to all of them on Facebook and on my Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2013-14 Postseason Picks, Part IV

On Wednesday, I joined with my co-hosts of The All-Sports Crew to record the first podcast episode of Puff on the NFL. We made our 2013 NFL predictions, and now here they are in writing so you all can hold us to them.

Cory Puffett

AFC Playoffs:

• Denver Broncos (13-3)
• Miami Dolphins (11-5)
• Houston Texans (9-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
• New England Patriots (10-6)
• Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

AFC Championship: Denver over Houston

NFC Playoffs:

• New Orleans Saints (13-3)
• San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
• Green Bay Packers (13-3)
• New York Giants (9-7)
• Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
• Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

NFC Championship: San Francisco over New Orleans

Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver over San Francisco

Eric Meyer

AFC Playoffs:

• Denver Broncos (12-4)
• New England Patriots (12-4)
• Houston Texans (11-5)
• Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
• Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

AFC Championship: New England over Denver

NFC Playoffs:

• Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
• Green Bay Packers (11-5)
• Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
• Washington Redskins (10-6)
• San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
• New Orleans Saints (10-6)

NFC Championship: San Francisco over Seattle

Super Bowl XLVIII: San Francisco over New England

Saswat Misra

AFC Playoffs:

• Denver Broncos (14-2)
• Houston Texans (12-4)
• Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
• New England Patriots (10-6)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
• Miami Dolphins (9-7)

AFC Championship: Denver over Cincinnati

NFC Playoffs:

• San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
• Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
• Washington Redskins (10-6)
• Green Bay Packers (10-6)
• Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
• Chicago Bears (10-6)

NFC Championship: San Francisco over Washington

Super Bowl XLVIII: San Francisco over Denver

Sean Kennedy

AFC Playoffs:

• Denver Broncos (13-3)
• Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
• Houston Texans (12-4)
• New England Patriots (12-4)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
• Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

AFC Championship: Denver over Houston

NFC Playoffs:

• San Francisco 49ers (14-2)
• Green Bay Packers (12-4)
• New Orleans Saints (12-4)
• New York Giants (11-5)
• Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
• Washington Redskins (10-6)

NFC Championship: San Francisco over New Orleans

Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver over San Francisco

Be sure to listen to our podcasts every week, and ‘like’ Puff on the NFL and The All-Sports Crew on Facebook for links to our podcast. The All-Sports Crew will be on every Wednesday at 7pm during the school year, and hopefully our new NFL show will be on air every Friday. If not, it will still be podcasted and those links will go on our Facebook pages.

2013-14 Postseason Picks, Part III: NFC Playoff Picks

I published my AFC playoff picks a little earlier today, so let’s get to the league’s other conference.

NFC Postseason

1.            New Orleans Saints (13-3) – NFC South Champion, Home Field Advantage

The Saints are back, and they will be running neck-and-neck with Atlanta through the majority of the season before pulling ahead in the final weeks of the regular season. As bad as their defense was last year, I have a lot of respect in Rob Ryan and am confident he can transform their defense into a more reliable unit that will allow their offense to do their thing.

2.            San Francisco 49ers (13-3) – NFC West Champion, 1st Round Bye

The 49ers will be in the same sort of battle with Seattle as the Saints will be with Atlanta. But a couple tough road matches for Seattle will allow San Francisco to clinch the West, and a home win against the Packers will hold off Green Bay to clinch the first round bye.

3.            Green Bay Packers (13-3) – NFC North Champion

The Packers are too talented a team for me to predict fewer wins for them. That said, they struggled in the early part of last season, and they also had to deal with replacement officials who cost them a game last year. But it’s a new year and they will look to keep their defense healthy for once so they can dominate the division.

4.            New York Giants (9-7) – NFC East Champion

If I hadn’t gone through all 256 games and predicted winners for them, I would’ve thrown the Redskins in as the NFC East winner, but I think a slightly better division record will give the Giants a slight advantage over the Redskins and Cowboys and will give New York their shot at truly hosting Super Bowl XLVIII.

5.            Atlanta Falcons (12-4) – 2nd Place NFC South, Wild Card

The Falcons are probably the best team in the NFC, but it isn’t by much and a more difficult road schedule than just about anyone else will cost them the division title. They will have to go on the road through the playoffs.

6.            Seattle Seahawks (12-4) – 2nd Place NFC West, Wild Card

The Seahawks always struggle on the road, and that docked them a win or two that they could have gotten at home. If they lose Percy Harvin to injury, I might take them down to 11 or even 10 wins. But they still have the best secondary in the NFC and a solid front seven to keep opposing ground attacks at bay.

Other Contenders

Despite my predictions of five teams with 12+ wins in the NFC, the rest of the conference has a little more parity than the AFC. In the East, both the Cowboys and Redskins are serious division title contenders.

The Bears are my top NFC North contender behind the Packers, but if Christian Ponder shows improvement over last season, Adrian Peterson will be able to help him make up for the loss of Percy Harvin and give the Vikings a chance at a playoff birth.

In the South, I could see the Panthers winning as many as nine games, but that will not be enough for a wild-card spot in this year’s NFC. As for the West, the Cardinals will be an infinitely better team with Carson Palmer under center, but only if the offensive line can keep him on his feet. My doubts about that were a big part of me only giving them six victories in 2013.

Preliminary Playoff Predictions

Though I correctly picked three of last season’s NFC playoff teams, my preseason predictions of how the road to the Super Bowl would unravel were not good at all in this conference. I’m back for another shot this year, so here it goes.

NFC Wild Card

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers

The playoffs have not been kind to Green Bay lately, and Seattle will be out to prove that they can beat the Packers with the best refs the NFL has to offer.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Matt Ryan will have his chance for revenge after Atlanta’s embarrassing 24-2 loss to New York in the 2011 playoffs.

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton and his team missed participating in the playoffs last year. You better believe they won’t let this trip end so soon.

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers

The Ravens’ defense manages to hold off Colin Kaepernick in Super Bowl XLVII, but the Falcons’ defense doesn’t have a chance.

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

I wish I planned this from the beginning. Probably the best playoff game played during my lifetime was this matchup in 2011, which Alex Smith won with a sensational touchdown run and his hookup with Vernon Davis for the team’s third installment of The Catch. Colin Kaepernick will play the hero this time.

Super Bowl XLVIII

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos

The 49ers are the more complete team of the two; that much is certain in my mind. Any other year, I take the 49ers 10 times out of 10. Why not this year? The Broncos will be better prepared to handle the elements of MetLife Stadium. With two years of experience playing in the cold, Manning’s offense won’t be as sloppy as his Colts were in Super Bowl XLI.

Again, the support you all show by reading my blog means the world to me. Never hesitate to comment on my posts, whether on my blog or on Facebook.

Tomorrow I plan to be watching the 2013 Hall of Fame induction ceremony and should be on Twitter through most of the event, so feel free to chat with me there, @cpuffnfl.

I will be back on here Monday with my reaction to this preseason’s inaugural game, between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins, which begins at 8:00pm on NBC.

2013-14 Postseason Picks, Part II: AFC Playoff Picks

Yesterday I published my predictions on every team’s final regular season record. So today, I’m here to tell you who will represent each conference in the 2013 playoffs, starting with the AFC. I talked briefly about these picks on Wednesday’s podcast of The All-Sports Crew. Here are a few more details about my picks.

AFC Postseason

1.            Denver Broncos (13-3) – AFC West Champion, Home Field Advantage

The Broncos are a pretty easy choice to win 13 games or more. Even if Von Miller is suspended for a few games, and even with Elvis Dumervil signing with the Ravens, they have one of the better defensive units in the AFC, and their offense will be the best in the conference. That, mixed with another easy schedule, will make for an easy road to home field advantage.

2.            Miami Dolphins (11-5) – AFC East Champion, 1st Round Bye

I can see a million ways the Dolphins can screw this up, but they have a team that can compete with New England this year, and they have a slightly easier schedule than their division rivals.

3.            Houston Texans (9-7) – AFC South Champion

The Texans can win as many as 12 games in my opinion. But with their focus seemingly shifted to finishing the season, we likely will not see them make as long an early-season run this year as we did in 2012. They will get caught up in a tough early- and mid-season schedule, but a strong finish will net them a third straight division title.

4.            Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) – AFC North Champion

This one came down to the final two weeks of the season, and I expect Cincinnati’s home game against Baltimore in Week 17 to be flexed to Sunday night, where I think home field gives the Bengals an edge and the AFC North title.

5.            New England Patriots (10-6) – 2nd Place AFC East, Wild Card

The Patriots can certainly win the AFC East, but it will have more to do with what the Dolphins do down the stretch than it will what the Patriots do. I respect Tom Brady’s game, but he doesn’t usually perform well with receivers that he isn’t familiar with. He has lost too many weapons this offseason, and it will be a struggle even to win 10 games. But it’s Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, so I can’t very well push them to fewer than double-digit wins.

6.            Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) – 2nd Place AFC West, Wild Card

The Chiefs had one of the best bad teams in 2012, with multiple pro bowlers. They kept Dwayne Bowe in house and added a quarterback who will be able to get the ball to their second-best offensive player. With Alex Smith in house to open up their aerial attack, Jamaal Charles could have a bigger year than ever on the ground.

Other Contenders

In the AFC East, the Bills have a lot of talent at running back, but I’m not going to bank on Ryan Fitzpatrick getting back to his early-2011 form.

The Steelers are a better team than the 6-10 record I predict for them, but they have a rough schedule and I’m not expecting to see much better than the disheveled Steelers unit of 2012.

Out West, the Chargers should be playoff contenders, but they won’t.

The only other three serious contenders I see are the Ravens, Colts and Raiders. The Ravens lost a lot of pieces this offseason, but they got Vonta Leach back, which is huge. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will be enough to make up for all their departures and the devastating loss of Dennis Pitta for the season to a hip injury.

The Colts also have a tough schedule. The have plenty of playoff talent on the team, but losing Bruce Arians may be bigger than anyone wants to think.

As for the Raiders, I love their addition of Matt Flynn at quarterback, and I expect him to wind up winning the starting job. However, I have only gotten to see him play one regular season game and some limited preseason action, so I can’t pick the Raiders with any confidence just yet.

Preliminary Playoff Predictions

This is only the second year I am doing this. I got one playoff game correct last preseason, when I predicted the Ravens to win in Denver (though I picked the opposite the week of that game). I also picked the Patriots to beat the Ravens last preseason. Everything else got pretty shot out since the Texans were the only other team I correctly predicted.

Here are my 2013 playoff predictions.

AFC Wild Card

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

As much as I like the Chiefs to improve drastically this season, they can be suspect at times and I think the Texans focus on finishing will carry over into some strong postseason performances.

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Patriots have a better coach and better players. New England has had some playoff struggles the past several season, save for 2011, but the Bengals aren’t ready to take the next step.

AFC Divisional Playoffs

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

I have New England winning their regular season showdown in Foxboro, but in Mile High, I think Peyton Manning delivers the first playoff victory for his new team. 

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins, like the Bengals, don’t look to me like a team ready to make the next step to playoff success. Mike Wallace is a welcome addition to the offense, but it isn’t enough. Houston wins a close one.

AFC Championship Game

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

Houston says this is a ‘Super Bowl or Bust’ year, but I don’t think they are a Super Bowl-ready team. Manning gets his third Super Bowl appearance.

Like last year, I will predict the Super Bowl victor in my NFC post.

Check back shortly for my NFC playoff picks and be sure to follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2013-14 Postseason Picks, Part I: Final Regular Season Standings

I tap into my fortune-telling skills to tell you how the
NFL's 32 teams will stack up at the end of the year.

If you didn’t see me on Facebook a few days ago, I’d like to apologize again for my sudden and unannounced break from writing about a month and a half ago. My summer job and track coaching needed my focus for at the time. But the summer track season is over and I have just two weeks and change left with my summer job.

So I am now ready to shift focus back to the National Football League and the upcoming season. With Hall of Fame inductions on Saturday and the preseason opener on Sunday, it is time for my pre-preseason NFL preview.

And what better way to celebrate 300 Puff on the NFL blog posts than this – here are my 2013 NFL final standings predictions:

AFC

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (5-11)

Miami Dolphins (11-5)

New England Patriots (10-6)

New York Jets (4-12)

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (7-9)

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

Cleveland Browns (4-12)

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-10)

AFC South

Houston Texans (9-7)

Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

Tennessee Titans (5-11)

AFC West

Denver Broncos (13-3)

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

Oakland Raiders (7-9)

San Diego Chargers (5-11)

NFC

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys (9-7)

New York Giants (9-7)

Philadelphia Eagles (5-11)

Washington Redskins (8-8)

NFC North

Chicago Bears (8-8)

Detroit Lions (6-10)

Green Bay Packers (13-3)

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (12-4)

Carolina Panthers (6-10)

New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (6-10)

San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

St. Louis Rams (6-10)

Welcome to August everyone! Tomorrow I will publish my AFC and NFC playoff predictions, which I already talked about on yesterday’s podcast of The All-Sports Crew.

As always I appreciate all of you reading this. Throughout this season, please feel encouraged to leave feedback via comments on my blog posts or on my Facebook page. Be sure to ‘like’ my Facebook page, follow my on Twitter (@cpuffnfl), and keep an eye out for my write-ups on the upcoming NFLBattles website.