AFC Postseason
1. New England Patriots (14-2) – AFC East Champion, Home Field Advantage
Bill Belichick has done some incredible things in New England. As controversial as he is, he always seems to get a good group together and make some noise in the regular season. I hesitate to call New England a Super Bowl team because they have not seemed to be able to put things together in the playoffs for several years now, but the more they get to the postseason, the more opportunities they have for another Super Bowl.
I do not have too much more to add here. This is a solid team that is strong in pretty much every area. Even their weak points would be strengths for most other teams in the NFL.
2. Baltimore Ravens (13-3) – AFC North Champion, 1st Round Bye
I do not see Baltimore winning more than 13 games (even Ravens fans probably will not complain about that), though I could see them losing up to 5 or 6. They will be in the playoffs, I have no doubts about that, but they have a big question mark at QB for me.
Joe Flacco is the only quarterback, so far, to lead a team to the postseason, and win a postseason game, in each of his first three seasons in the league. He is also tied with four other quarterbacks for most career postseason road wins. But he still has a lot to prove to me. Maybe it is unfair, but he still has some consistency flaws. However, with Ray Rice in the backfield, Ricky Williams backing Rice up, and new fullback Vonta Leach, the running game should be solid in Baltimore. Leach is also one of the better receiving fullbacks in the game and may aid in Flacco’s development.
Age is starting to catch up with Baltimore’s defense. As much as we would like them to, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are not going to be young forever. Neither of them is old by any stretch, especially Reed who is 32 years old. But hard-hitting defenders do not tend to last long in the NFL. Both have lasted longer than most, but there is a limit and I think that limit is fast approaching. Ravens fans do not have anything to worry about on that front for this year, but this could be the year we begin to see warning signs of breaking down for both of them.
3. Houston Texans (10-6) – AFC South Champion
Yes, I said it, the Houston Texans, NOT the Indianapolis Colts, will win the AFC South crown in 2011. It is a bold prediction, and I will likely be eating my words by season’s end, but with one of the better offenses in the NFL from 2010, plus Wade Phillips now coaching the defense, this is very likely the team to beat in the AFC South in 2011.
Gary Kubiak is in no way a coaching genius, but he has shown over the past few seasons that he can take a still-new team that has not enjoyed any real level of success, and make a group of winners out of them. Last season I predicted that Houston would sneak in as the last wild card team. I was wrong, but Houston did continue showing signs of improvement, and if they continue that trend of improvement, they will at the very least be in as a wild card team this season.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) – AFC West Champion
Kansas City made the playoffs last season and was immediately tossed out by a much better Baltimore Ravens team. But I see no need to be concerned about that going into this season. With Jamaal Charles back and poised for even more success than he had last season, and Matt Cassel continuing to show that he belongs in a starting role in the NFL, I think the Chiefs will win the AFC West.
Todd Haley is a proven offensive mind, but the Chiefs biggest concern will be the defense, whose coach is Romeo Crennel who joined the team in 2010. Crennel was previously the head coach for the Cleveland Browns. He had no success in Cleveland, but he is a good defensive coach. He will have to prove it by going to work on the defensive line, which was a clear flaw in last year’s playoff loss to the Ravens. Running lanes were being opened too easily against them. Fixing that could guarantee an AFC West Championship in 2011.
5. New York Jets (13-3) – 2nd Place AFC East, Wild Card
Looks like I am buying into Rex Ryan’s Super Bowl guarantee. You can fault the Patriots for the second best record in the NFL getting just a Wild Card spot.
The Jets have so much going for them. Even though they did not get Nnamdi Asomugha, they have a great defensive backs group anyway. The defense is great without him; they would just be able to easily beat New England at Foxboro with him.
I still have doubts about Mark Sanchez, but I believe in Rex Ryan more and more every day. If he is convinced that Sanchez is the face of the franchise and is the quarterback he is going to win a Super Bowl with, I am willing to trust him until Sanchez proves him wrong. One way or another, Rex will win a Super Bowl in New York before long.
6. Indianapolis Colts (10-6) – 2nd Place AFC South, Wild Card
The only reason I have the Colts in here is because I picked the Colts to beat Pittsburgh early in the season on merit of the game being played in Lucas Oil Stadium. They could just as easily have been left out and seen the Steelers in the playoffs trying to get back to the Super Bowl.
My biggest concern for Indy is Peyton Manning’s recovery from neck surgery. It was not a major operation, but the neck is a tricky thing. If he is able to make a full recovery by the start of the regular season, the Colts could just as easily win 12-13 games, win the AFC South, maybe get a 1st round bye, and be a team in the Super Bowl discussion. But if he is not at his best, the Colts could just as easily win as few as eight games and miss the postseason altogether.
Could Sneak In
Pittsburgh Steelers
Like I said, the Steelers could just as easily make the playoffs as sit in the first spot out of it in early January. That is not promising news for Pittsburgh fans who would like to see their team return to the Super Bowl to take the Lombardi Trophy this year. So how does a team who has 12 players chosen to be Gotham’s football team in the next Batman movie miss the playoffs? Inconsistency.
They know how to beat the Ravens, but they play inconsistently against almost every other team in the league. They show up and play lights out football one week, showing why their quarterback is so highly touted and why they should always be in Super Bowl talks. But then they come back and everything seems to go wrong. Plus they have a linebacker who cannot even talk nice about his quarterback, let alone the commissioner of the NFL.
Mike Tomlin is a great coach, and one of my favorites in the league on the basis of ability and personality. But if players like James Harrison cannot behave properly for a coach like him, I think Pittsburgh may be in trouble regardless of whom their leader is.
Cleveland Browns
I think Colt McCoy may be the answer to the Browns postseason hopes. He might never be the one to finally get them to the Super Bowl, but he may well be. I still have some questions to be answered about him, but he seems to learn very quickly and he improved a lot over the course of last season. He threw 6 touchdowns and 9 picks last season, but he was getting better with every game and if he starts 16 games this season, the Browns might win more than the 8 I have given them.
Tennessee Titans
Mike Munchak is my biggest question going into 2011. With much less time to work with the team prior to preseason and the regular season than in most years, rookie head coaches are going to be at a major disadvantage this year. I think it will help that they have a veteran quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck leading their team this year.
But Munchak also has to deal with Cortland Finnegan. Finnegan plays cornerback and is known for getting a little too physical, purposefully starting senseless things to get in the heads of receivers he is paired up against. Last year he was ejected after picking a fight for no reason against Texans receiver Andre Johnson, who was also ejected after losing it and striking Finnegan multiple times. This year, Finnegan is holding out for more money, which I feel he still needs to earn, but with all the fines he has been dealt, I guess it makes sense he would want some extra money to cover all that.
Denver Broncos
Kyle Orton is listed as the number one quarterback, and rightly so in my opinion. But Broncos fans want Tim Tebow to start. This dividedness gets things off on the wrong foot for a team that already is not exactly a common pick for the postseason this year. The only thing that keeps them close in my mind is that the AFC West could be fairly week this season, with no team stepping up to take control of the division. A few big plays in a couple key division matchups could swing things Denver’s way.
San Diego Chargers
I really like Philip Rivers, and the Chargers deserve a postseason spot more than anyone in the AFC West, but nothing will be given to them and after the disaster of a season they had in 2010, the Chargers will have to reprove themselves as the team to beat in the AFC West.
Oakland Raiders
With Tom Cable out in Oakland and Hue Jackson in, things may be looking up for the Raiders. Last season was an embarrassment. They went 6-0 in the AFC West and missed the playoffs, the only team to have ever ‘achieved’ that distinction. Oakland has been a long time without a winning football team, and with the disadvantage of Jackson having less time to work on things his way, the seven wins I gave them for this season are probably the upper limit. But, as I said with the Broncos, if the AFC West is as close as I expect, a few big plays in a division game or two could shift things for the better in Oakland.
You can see my complete standings predictions and my NFC Postseason Preview at the following URLs:
Standings: 2011-12 Postseason Predictions, Part I: Standings
NFC Postseason Preview: 2011-12 Postseason Predictions, Part II: NFC
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