Conference Championship Afterword

Marshawn Lynch looked unsure about whether to cross the goal line
on this fourth-quarter touchdown run to put Seattle in the lead.

Cory Puffett

Green Bay at Seattle

We can take a two-yard Hail Mary off the list of football plays I’ve never seen.

Green Bay played a heck of a first half, which is what I knew they needed to do if they wanted a shot at knocking off Seattle. Aaron Rodgers had not thrown a first half interception all season until Sunday afternoon. The second half of road games had been when he was most vulnerable.

What I did not expect was that he could throw an interception in the first half and Green Bay survive it. They did, thanks to Russell Wilson’s three first half interceptions.

I had a strong feeling going into halftime that the game was far from over. Of Green Bay’s four scores in the first half, three were field goals. A 16-0 lead is solid, but in CenturyLink Field, that’s far from insurmountable.

The comeback started with a fake field goal touchdown pass from Jon Ryan to Clint Gresham. It cut the lead nearly in half, but a special teams touchdown doesn’t restore much confidence in the offense’s ability to score.

But as Earl Thomas pointed out after the game, Seattle never gave up. As soon as Russell Wilson crossed the goal line for a touchdown just before the two-minute warning, I had a strong feeling Seattle would win the game. Just ask Eric, he was sitting right next to me when I said it. He thought I was kidding. I was not.

Green Bay flubbed the onside kick and four plays later Beastmode scored on a 24-yard touchdown run and was visibly upset that they had not taken more time off the clock. The Russell Wilson was driven backwards on the two-point conversion and tossed up a duck to the opposite side of the field near the goal line. Luke Wilson was there and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was unable to keep him out of the end zone.

A masterful drive by Aaron Rodgers allowed Mason Crosby to tie the game up just before time ran out, but Seattle got the ball to start the fourth quarter. Six plays and 87 yards later, Russell Wilson made up for his four interceptions by hooking up with Jermaine Kearse from 35 yards out to end the game before Aaron Rodgers had a chance to take the field.

Darrelle Revis had two pass deflections and an interception.
He will make his first Super Bowl appearance in two weeks.

Indianapolis at New England

Eric and I joked before the second game about the score I predicted for this game. I said New England would best Indianapolis 35-10. Turns out I gave Indy too much credit.

The temperature was bearable, but the wind and rain clearly were not for the Colts. Andrew Luck got out to a slow start and never did get into a rhythm. He completed just 12 passes on 33 attempts for 126 yards and two picks. It’s the first playoff game in which he failed to throw for 250 yards.

Daniel Herron ran the ball fairly effectively, but he only got 10 carries. Part of that was because he was benched for a while after two egregious dropped passes. One thing the Colts must do next year is find balance on offense. They relied too much on Andrew Luck all year despite having capable running backs. That game plan carried into Sunday and was at least a small part in them getting blown out of Foxboro.

Tom Brady played a very good game and Julian Edelman proved very reliable as he caught 9 of 11 targets for 98 yards. But the key to victory for the Patriots, besides their defense, was LeGarrette Blount.

Blount scored four rushing touchdowns in New England’s playoff victory over Indianapolis last season. He started this year in Pittsburgh but New England must be thrilled tonight that they let him go. He scored three times and had 148 yards on 30 carries.

No doubt this is about the worst Super Bowl matchup I could imagine in the sense that I can’t really get excited about rooting for either of these teams. But this has the potential to be a terrific game. New England is back to their late season form after a shaky performance against Baltimore and Seattle’s never-say-die attitude is going to be very hard to beat.

Let’s just hope that Richard Sherman’s arm injury is not too serious. Super Bowls tend to suck when both teams aren’t at their absolute best.

Eric’s Picks, Conference Championships

Eric Meyer

We’re down to our final four. Only one new face is still in the hunt for a Super Bowl, while three others are looking for additional jewelry to add to their stashes. Some could argue that this is the “forgone conclusion” weekend, but that’s insulting to the two road teams who have made it this far.

It should be an exciting pair of games as established veterans square off against third-year, up-and-coming quarterbacks who are trying to build their own hall-of-fame legacies. Let’s get to it.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

The Packers got shellacked last time they went up to Seattle to wrangle with the defending championships, 36-16. Of course, that was Week 1. We saw last year that early season routs aren’t a good indicator of outcomes in January.

Last season, the San Francisco 49ers got thumped in Seattle in a Sunday Night bout in Week 2. They responded by playing a tight game in the NFC Championship and coming within one Richard Sherman “best corner in the game” play (and later rant) from heading to their second straight Super Bowl. It should be pretty obvious not to write off the Packers.

Here’s another oft-ignored point regarding Seattle: Stanton, Kaepernick, Sanchez, Kaepernick, Lindley, Hill and Newton. These are the seven quarterbacks that Seattle has faced since their loss to the Chiefs, during their supposed “rejuvenation.” None of those guys are elite. Over half of those guys aren’t even legitimate starting quarterbacks.

I have no doubt that Seattle’s defense has improved to levels similar to last season, but some people are failing to take the competition into consideration. Aaron Rodgers is more valuable than those six guys combines. He’s going to make some plays. I’m grabbing these points and running.

I think Seattle wins this game. Russell Wilson is one of the most hotly debated quarterbacks in the league. Some people thing he’s a game manager who rides his run game and defense to wins. I’m not in that camp. Wilson is one of the best playmakers in the NFL. He turns losing plays into big gains. He bails out his line when protection breaks down by scrambling and then making smart decisions outside of the pocket.

Wilson can hit you with absolute backbreaking plays just when you think you’ve turned the tide. Seattle’s defense is great and will keep the score relatively low, but Wilson will be the difference in this game. He’ll be heading to his second straight Super Bowl, where he and his Hawks will be favored to repeat.

Eric’s Pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 28

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

This is an interesting matchup. Andrew Luck vanquished his predecessor last week and now he has an opportunity to eliminate his predecessor’s longtime nemesis. Unfortunately, Luck has had less success than Manning ever had against the New England Patriots.

The Colts put on a quality performance against Denver last week. They shut down the Broncos’ passing attack and put the onus on a washed-up Peyton Manning to beat them deep. He failed and the Colts came away with the win. It’s a big confidence booster and I’m sure the Colts will feed off of that heading to Foxboro.

But let’s be real here. Andrew Luck played pretty well. Not great. Not badly. He was okay. He wasn’t superman. He didn’t put the team on his back. He didn’t play flawless football. He threw two picks that turned out to be harmless, but very easily could’ve hurt his team.

On defense, the Colts played, again, pretty well. Vontae Davis played the game of his life. They took advantage of Manning’s noodle arm. What they didn’t do was stop the run. They still allowed C.J. Anderson to get 4.4 yards per carry. They failed to tackle him on Denver’s not-so-season saving drive where Anderson was contacted five yards behind the line of scrimmage and slipped three Colts defenders for a first down conversion on 4th & 1.

There are still holes on this Colts team. The Patriots have a much tougher team than Denver, and a much better quarterback at the moment. New England has hammered the Colts with their rushing attack each of the last two times they’ve met. They’ve been able to do pretty much whatever they want at the line of scrimmage. And if the Colts decide to stack the box to stop the run, they’ll just have to deal with a guy named Tom Brady.

Andrew Luck will have his moments, but ultimately New England will prevail and play for their fourth Super Bowl title.

Eric’s Pick: Indianapolis 24, New England 38

Puff’s Picks, Conference Championships

Cory Puffett

After a perfect opening weekend and a 6-0 start to my playoff predictions, my hope for a Joe Flacco postseason (11-0 prediction record) was dashed when the Cowboys and Broncos both lost last Sunday.

Now I’ll try and build on my 6-2 start to the playoffs with the games on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

This has definitely been the more difficult of the two game for me to make up my mind about. The obvious choice is the Seahawks. They have almost everything going for them.

They have the best home field advantage in the NFL. They won the Week 1 meeting between the two teams, and teams in Seattle’s position this Sunday are 6-0 historically. The Seahawks have Beastmode and the Legion of Boom.

So why am I so hesitant to pull the trigger on them? The simple answer is Aaron Rodgers, but the real answer goes beyond him.

Aaron Rodgers has one of the best young running backs in the league with him. If there was anything the Packers were saving him for when they were giving the reps Eddie Lacy deserved to James Starks early in the season, it would be for this moment.

The receiving corps Rodgers has is maybe the deepest in the league. He has one of the best 1-2 combos in Nelson and Cobb and we saw last week against Dallas that Rodgers has no problems getting the ball to the wide receivers and tight ends buried on the Green Bay depth chart.

We all know about Seattle, so I’m not going to go into detail about them. They struggled a bit out of the gate, but they’re back to the same form they were last postseason. This is, again, a legit championship contender. But of the three other teams left, Green Bay has the best tools with which to win in Seattle. The other two teams are just lucky they don’t have to go to CenturyLink Field.

The reason I’m sticking with the Seahawks this weekend is because of Mike McCarthy. He’s too unpredictable. Will he take advantage of the fact that Eddie Lacy is not as banged up as most running backs would be at this point in the season? Will he use Lacy to protect his quarterback who, while still playing like the best in the league, is clearly not 100-percent?

I’d like to think that he will, but McCarthy doesn’t always do the intelligent thing. He’s an overrated coach who rode his star quarterback’s coattails to a Super Bowl title and has botched every opportunity to return since then.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Packers, 34-28

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

No trouble here, I’m taking the Patriots all the way. I expected the Ravens to give them some trouble, but ultimate I went with New England last week for reasons I won’t repeat here but you’re more than welcome to go back and refer to last week’s prediction post.

Now that they shook out the rust from the week off, New England should be ready to annihilate Andrew Luck and the Colts. Peyton Manning couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his deep passes last week. I expected the run game to come through for the Broncos, which was the only reason I picked them to win. We’d already seen Manning was falling apart.

The Colts managed to contain C.J. Anderson and so were able to win the football game. But this week they have to go up against a quarterback who suddenly looks to be aging much slower than the Sherriff.

Tom Brady doesn’t have the deep receiving corps that Manning has, but at this point in time he has the better arm. More importantly, he’s created depth by finally getting on the same page with Danny Amendola. Factor in the depth in the backfield and the great secondary, and I don’t see anyway New England loses at home unless Bill Belichick goes senile and decides he’d have a better chance with Jimmy Garoppolo under center and Michael Hoomanawanui as the play caller. (Yeah, I just wanted to say Hoomanawanui. What a name.)

Puff’s Pick: Patriots over Colts, 35-10

Divisional Round Afterword, Part II

Aaron Rodgers fought through an injured calf to deliver a terrific
divisional round performance in Sunday's win over Dallas.

Cory Puffett

Dallas at Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers will finish the season either next week in Seattle or two weeks later in Arizona. In any case, he ends the year without a home interception for the second season in a row.

After an excellent early drive by the Packers, largely on the shoulders of Eddie Lacy, the Packers let their lead slip away as the Cowboys went on two straight touchdown drives and held the lead until the fourth quarter.

Both teams played excellent games. The time of possession was virtually identical. Aaron Rodgers and DeMarco Murray each lost one fumble. The Packers were a little sloppy with the penalties, but otherwise this was everything a fan could’ve wanted from a divisional playoff game.

The play that will be talked about ad nauseam is the overturned 4th down reception by Dez Bryant near the goal line. Every time I see the replay my opinion changes. At one glance it looks like the Calvin Johnson rule. The next glance makes it look like Dez took three steps (while falling) and made a football move to reach the ball out to the goal line before the ball hit the ground and momentarily came loose.

The play was called a completed catch on the field and overturned on a challenge by Mike McCarthy, who had not won a challenge all season. It’s a very close play and I still feel that the right call would have been to stick with the call on the field. The officials felt differently.

In any case, the Packers will travel to Seattle for the NFC Championship game next Sunday. It will be their first appearance in the league semifinal since 2010.

Vontae Davis narrowly missed this interception in the end zone, but he
deflected three passes and helped Indy stifle Denver's offense.

Indianapolis at Denver

The Broncos got beat for a variety of reasons. Firstly, they came out with a very poor game plan. It looked eerily similar to the one they used in a losing effort in last year’s Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks – a lot of screens and short passes with very few shots down the field.

Because everything was short, the Colts had no trouble containing C.J. Anderson for most of the first half.

A second reason for the loss was Denver’s inability to adjust at halftime. They came out of the break trying and failing to make the same things work that the Colts had shut down with so much ease early in the game.

Sure the receivers didn’t play that great and Demaryius Thomas made some inexcusable drops on two screen plays in particular, but the third and most important reason for the loss was Peyton Manning.

You all know I hate to throw him under the bus for anything, but he played a very poor game Sunday evening. He is as close to an offensive coordinator as any player has been in the last fifty years in the NFL, so it is as much his responsibility to adjust the game plan to fit various situations as it is his coaches’ jobs. The few times he did try and stretch the field, he overthrew his receivers, giving the Colts even more reason to focus their attention within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

The Colts deserve all the praise they’ll get this week because they did play a very sound game, especially defensively. But keep in mind that a big part of that was Denver’s inability to make Indianapolis’s job challenging.

The Colts will travel to Foxboro to play the Patriots next Sunday and will need another big game from their defense to knock off the AFC’s top seed to earn a Super Bowl birth.

Wild Card Afterword, Part II

Donte Moncrief had three career touchdown reception entering Saturday,
and he added another to his tally on this third-quarter reception.

Cory Puffett

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

Andrew Luck may have only thrown one touchdown pass, but his performance Sunday afternoon had to have made his coaches very happy. Luck had his first turnover-free playoff game and had his first 300-yard passing game since a late-November home win against the Washington Redskins’ porous secondary.

With injuries to Indy’s top two members of the backfield, Zurlon Tipton stepped up to help Daniel Herron carry the Colts’ run game, and the duo did a fine job of keeping Cincinnati’s defense honest, combining for 96 yards on 23 carries. Luck added 18 rushing yards on a pair of attempts.

There isn’t much good to say about Cincinnati, so I’ll head the proverb and not say anything at all. It will, however, but interesting to see whether the Bengals shake things up in the coming weeks. Despite his 0-4 record in the playoffs I expect Andy Dalton to return as their quarterback for the 2015 season. I’m not as sure about Marvin Lewis, who is now 0-6 in the playoffs as their head coach.

It seems unthinkable that the Bengals could have a new man at the helm next year after making the playoffs five times in the last six seasons, but four straight first-round exits can lead to difficult and sometimes surprising decisions.

While the Bengals start looking toward next season, the Colts will travel to Denver where Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck will meet for a third time, with the head-to-head series split at one game apiece.

DeMarco Murray, the 2014 NFL rushing leader, had 97 yards on 22 touches
Sunday evening against the NFL's number one rush defense.

Detroit at Dallas

No one expected the Cowboys to duplicate their last home performance when they routed the Colts and nearly recorded their first home shutout in team history. Their fans had to be nervous when the team came out as lethargic as they did Sunday evening, though.

The Lions took advantage of some sloppy play for the Cowboys offense and several holes in the defense to build up a 14-0 that they held until the final couple minutes of the first half, when a major defensive lapse allowed Terrance Williams to break free for a 76-yard touchdown reception.

Though the Lions did manage to add a field goal just before the break, they’d clearly lost any momentum at that point.

Neither team came out in the second half looking like a team that deserved to advance, but Dallas slowly built up steam and after a 10-play, 80-yard touchdown drive near the end of the third quarter, it seemed inevitable that Detroit would give this game to the Cowboys.

It’s only fair to bring up the fact that there were one or two questionable calls (or non-calls) by the refs in the fourth quarter that went against Detroit, but there is no question that the team they put out there for the second half did not deserve to win that football game.

That doesn’t change the fact that the refs may have played a bigger part in Dallas’s win than they should have, but I do believe the better team won. The Lions had plenty of opportunities to put the game away on offense and instead fumbled twice on their last possession of the game.

Tony Romo, for his part, shook off a poor start to turn in a very solid playoff performance. Terrance Williams caught two touchdown passes in the game which may help Dallas create a more effective game plan for their game in Green Bay next week, but I’ll get into that later this week.


If you missed my recap of Saturday's wild card action, read it at Wild Card Afterword, Part I.

Eric’s NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

The holidays are over, which means that it’s time for some playoff football! Twelve teams are still alive for the Lombardi Trophy, and four of those teams will take their first steps toward NFL immortality this weekend. Four others will have to try again next year.

It’s been a tumultuous NFL season, both on the field and off, but I guess that how Roger Goodell wants it. This has been one of the most difficult seasons to predict yet, and the playoffs likely will be no different, but I’m going to take my best shot at it on Cory’s very special blog page if he doesn’t mind.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Insert joke about NFC South here:

Yes, we all know the NFL South struggled this year. It’s interesting that the NFL’s worst division winner draws the wildcard from what was clearly the NFL’s best division in the NFC West. It’s even more interesting (and downright ironic) that the 7-8-1 Panthers are the heaviest favorite to advance over the 11-5 Cardinals. The Panthers that could not win for two straight months are touchdown favorites to beat a Cardinals team that started off 9-1 this season. How fun.

Obviously, when you dig a little deeper you can understand why. Carolina is the home team, which is an immediately three-point swing in the point spread. Also, Carolina has quietly put together a pretty impressive stretch, blowing out the Saints and the Falcons in their own backyards to finally grab control of the division. Cam Newton has gotten healthier and Jonathan Steward has re-emerged to give the Panthers and essential boost in the running game. With an improving defense and a standout rookie WR in Kelvin Benjamin, this Panthers team doesn’t look half-bad right now.

Of course, the main culprit of the shocking point spread is Arizona’s injury situation at quarterback. Carson Palmer tore his ACL and Drew Stanton sprained a knee, which left the Cardinals down to Ryan Lindley, who is a historically bad quarterback. Couple that with the injury to Andre Ellington and you have one anemic offense limping into the playoffs. I commend the Cardinals for reaching this point despite their QB carousel, and I would hate to see the Panthers advance as such an undeserving playoff team, but I think Carolina nabs this one and covers the spread as well.

Eric’s Pick: Arizona 10, Carolina 27

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

Why am I not shocked that the Ravens are playing the Steelers in the playoffs. It seems like a yearly tradition that these two black and blue squads would square off for round three with everything at stake. That being said, this is a different brand of rivalry than we are used to. The defense is lacking for both squads, and it could be a strange change of pace from what we are used to seeing.

Both teams had to grind through the AFC North, a division fat with wins from feasting on the awful southern divisions from each conference. It was pretty much inevitable that this division would send three teams to the playoffs, but make no mistake. These are two quality football teams.

Le’Veon Bell is out. Ouch. That’s a killer for the Steelers’ chances. That is, until your remember that Pittsburgh features the best wide receiver in football, along with two other solid options outside the numbers in Marcus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant. Pair that up against an awful Ravens secondary and you just might see another six touchdown passes from Ben Roethlisberger.

The Ravens have some grit and the Steelers’ secondary is nothing to write home about, but the way the Ravens’ offense finished the season concerns me. I just don’t think that they can keep up with the Steelers’ offensive output, even without their superstar running back.

Eric’s Pick: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 31

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

We’ve seen this matchup before and it didn’t end well for the Bengals. The Colts shut Cincinnati out in a week 9 romp, but Andy Dalton and company recovered pretty nicely and locked up their fourth straight playoff appearance. Dalton is trying to get over the hump with a playoff win, and Marvin Lewis’s job might just depend on the Who Deys to get that win.

Unfortunately, I think it’ll be the same old song and dance for Cincinnati. Luck and the Colts haven’t played their best football down the stretch, but they’re at home, they can put up a lot of points, and their defense has been surprisingly stout at times, especially with Vontae Davis doing his best impression of Revis Island this season.

The Bengals haven’t usually brought it in the big moments, while the young Colts have shown some serious guile with their phenom quarterback leading the way. Marvin Lewis better update his CV.

Eric’s Pick: Cincinnati 17, Indianapolis 30

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The wildcard round’s final game wouldn’t have been right without a little controversy, and Ndamukong Suh made it happen. Color me shocked. Suh was initially suspended for this bout between NFC studs, but his lawyer pulled a Johnny Cochran and convinced the NFL to overturn the suspension, and Suh left with just a $70,000 fine thanks to his cold feet defense.

Whether or not you agree with Suh’s reduced punishment, he’s playing, and that’s a major factor in deciding this game. Suh is the Lion’s biggest asset on defense, and they’re going to need him if they plan to penetrate Dallas’s vaunted offensive line and stop DeMarco Murray from running wild. This is a clash of the titans in the trenches, and it’ll be interesting to see who wins that battle.

I think this is going to be a close game. The Cowboys are at home, but that hasn’t helped them much this season. That being said, Tony Romo has been the best and most clutch quarterback in the NFL this season. There, I said it. Romo looks like a rejuvenated star with Murray taking the pressure off, and having an All-pro wide receiver doesn’t hurt either.

The Romo hate has been momentarily silenced, but he can permanently quiet the critics with a deep playoff run. Betting on Romo in the playoffs still seems a bit crazy, but the Cowboys have completely flipped the script this year. I’m taking the points in this one, but I expect the Cowboys to punch their ticket to Lambeau Field.

Eric’s Picks: Detroit 24, Dallas 30 (Detroit beats the spread)

Puff’s Picks, 2015 Wild Card

Happy New Year, everyone! Thursday evening I watched the first ever college football playoffs. The first game was more than a little disappointing. I was pulling for Jameis Winston and the Seminoles, but the main disappointment was with how poorly Florida State played in the second half. They didn’t even put up a fight.

Thankfully, the late game offered much more excitement. I generally can’t stand college football, and the touchdown catch for OSU at the end of the first half annoyed me more than a little (seriously, NCAA, you only need one foot in bounds? Is this grade school?). But it was a fun game and it’s nice to see four teams get to compete for the chance to play in the national championship game.

Now it’s time for the real tournament to begin, the professional one. The clock doesn’t stop for a first down and you better get that second foot down in bounds.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Someone had to win the NFC South. The Panthers finally emerged from a pack of teams that didn’t seem to want to play in January and earned a playoff birth with a four-game winning streak to end the season.

Whether the Panthers earned the right to host a playoff game is another matter. Maybe in 2016 they wouldn’t be hosting, but this year they are. The Arizona Cardinals are a depleted bunch with their first- and second-string quarterbacks both injured. They do not have Andre Ellington available.

If there is any good news for the Cardinals, it’s that most of the defensive players who appeared on their injury report have been able to practice in some capacity this week.

Sadly for them, I don’t think that will be enough. The Arizona offense doesn’t bother me at all if I’m Carolina, and the Panther offense has hit their stride lately, despite Kelvin Benjamin have some trouble catching the ball lately.

I hate to pick against Bruce Arians, I think he’s one of the best head coaches in the NFL right now. But I don’t think Arizona is healthy enough to pull out this game on the road.

 Puff’s Pick: Panthers over Cardinals, 27-13

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

As much as Ravens fans annoy me and I’m not thrilled that their team made the playoffs, I am thrilled that we get a third matchup between these two teams this season. This is my favorite rivalry in the NFL.

The only disappointing thing about this weekend’s matchup is that the two teams aren’t at full strength. The Ravens will be without starting left tackle Eugene Monroe as well as rookie defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan.

The Steelers are lucky to have most of the players on their injury report listed as probably. The one exception is second year running back Le’Veon Bell, who recorded the second most rushing yards in the NFL this year behind DeMarco Murray. Bell was also the only player in the top 15 for rushing yards this season without a fumble and had the most receiving yards in the NFL from the running back position.

Early in the week, when Bell’s status was still unknown, I was leaning heavily toward Pittsburgh winning this game. The Ravens have been inconsistent, even as Joe Flacco has quietly put together the second-best season of his career. Then again, the Steelers have had some inconsistencies themselves.

Pittsburgh is playing at home, but given Bell’s status and unknown quality of depth at the running back position I have to give the nod to the Ravens this weekend.

Puff’s Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-23

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

This might be my least-anticipated game of the weekend. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game under Marvin Lewis and the Colts have not impressed lately. Their near-shutout loss to Dallas in week 16 aside, Andrew Luck has been turning the ball over a lot lately.

To be fair, Luck had been turning the ball over a lot all season. He has only recorded three turnover-free games all year, and he three seven interceptions in two playoff games a year ago. But early this season and even last postseason he made up for the turnovers by racking up tons of passing yards and a slew of touchdown passes. He led the NFL with 40 of them this season.

He hasn’t kept up that trend in the past few weeks, though, and so I expect this to be an ugly game with neither team truly winning it. It’ll come down to which team does more to lose it.

The good news for the Colts is that they’re playing at home and are much healthier than the Bengals. With A.J. Green doubtful and two other wide receivers out, Cincinnati may have to rely solely on Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard on offense. That won’t be enough, even if Cincy’s defense forces a few mistakes by Luck.

Puff’s Pick: Colts over Bengals, 20-14

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The Lions are very lucky that Ndamukong Suh’s suspension was overturned and he will be permitted to play this Sunday. I understand the decision, though I certainly don’t agree with it.

I don’t think it will mean much, though. The Lions offensive unit is equipped with more talent than they’ve ever had. Their rookie tight end is a little shaky, but Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are excellent runners with a solid backup in Theo Riddick. Meanwhile, Golden Tate has finally given the team the viable second receiver they’ve needed to keep defenses honest rather than letting them focus their entire secondary on Megatron.

Yet this offense has failed to gel on a consistent basis. They looked great in their season opener against the Giants, but they’ve only shown flashes of that since.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys avenged their home loss to the Redskins with a huge win in week 17. Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray both throughout and came out uninjured and looking terrific. Any concerns about Murray’s hand were put to rest.

Even the talent on Detroit’s defense will not be enough to stop Dallas, and I have no problem saying that the Cowboys will shut down Detroit’s offense for the majority of the game.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Lions, 30-17

Divisional Playoff Afterword: Patriots vs Colts

Stevan Ridley was not left to dry despite Blount's big day. The third-year
back out of LSU carried 14 times for 52 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

Cory Puffett

New England took an early lead on a 2-yard LeGarrette Blount touchdown run following Andrew Luck’s first interception of the game. Indy had the Patriots right where they wanted them, ahead.

That plan, not that it really was the plan, backfired. The Colts finish the season 0-4 in games following victories where they came back from deficits of ten or more points.

The rain had mostly stopped in Foxboro, but the Patriots emphasized the run on Saturday evening. Tom Brady didn’t have a particularly good game as far as his completion percentage, but he overcame a stretch of six straight completions and had a solid performance in support of his backs.

LeGarrette Blount was the main beneficiary of the Patriots’ game plan. He carried 24 times for 166 yards and four touchdowns. As a team, New England scored six rushing touchdowns on 46 carries for 234 yards.

Julian Edelman, the third player in Patriots history to catch 100 passes in a single season, continued in his role as Brady’s favorite target sans Gronk. He caught six balls for 84 yards on nine targets.

Not that the Patriots needed much help with the way their run game was working, but they got a good bit of help from their defense. Even though they got burned on a handful of plays, including two deep touchdown passes to LaVon Brazill, they also forced four interceptions in the game.

The Patriots won their third straight home divisional game after losing in 2010 to the New York Jets. Before that they hadn’t lost in the divisional playoffs at home since 1978.

Now New England awaits the conclusion of Sunday’s late game. If the Chargers can pull off a sixth straight win by knocking off the top seed in the AFC, the Patriots will host them in the AFC Championship. If the Broncos end the Chargers’ run, the Patriots will travel to Denver for next week’s conference title game.

Final Score:

Indianapolis Colts – 22

New England Patriots – 43

2014 Divisional Preview: Patriots vs Colts

Cory Puffett

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

January 11 – 8:15pm (CBS)

Andrew Luck truly is Captain Comeback. Take Peyton Manning’s two highest season totals for game winning drives, they only add up to three more than Andrew Luck’s. Fourth quarter comebacks are a different story, but Luck is still doing it earlier than Peyton ever did.

Take Tom Brady’s two highest season totals for either stat and they’re only one more than Luck’s through just his rookie and sophomore seasons.

The problem, though, with being Captain Comeback is that you have to trail first. There are two things wrong with that. One, you can’t come back every time. Two, if you find yourself with a lead in the fourth quarter you may not know what to do with it.

That second problem is what bothers me this weekend. New England is not going to put up a ton of points. Quote me on it; I’ll be eating my words if I’m wrong anyway so it’ll make no difference to me if you bring it up. If the Colts lead in the fourth quarter, and it’s not by at least ten points, look out. Not only may Indianapolis not know what to do with that lead, but also Tom Brady is dangerous in crunch time no matter who he has.

I’ve watched Tom Brady play with little offensive talent before. I’ve seen him look like a fool for three and a half quarters of a football game. But it doesn’t matter how badly he’s been playing, Tom Brady in the last five minutes of a ball game with a single-digit deficit is a “baaaad man,” to quote Stephen A Smith.

And the thing is, his receivers aren’t all that bad. Sure, it’d be nice if Deion Branch were out there for him instead of suiting up for Indy this weekend. But Danny Amendola is healthy. Julian Edelman is healthy. Kenbrell Thompkins is healthy. And Michael Hoomanawanui isn’t an awful tight end – he did have three touchdown catches his rookie season in St. Louis.

Aaron Dobson is questionable right now, but even without him I’ve seen worse receiving units than this, and this one actually has one of the all-time great quarterbacks to get them the ball.

New England also has a pretty solid group of running backs with Ridley, Vereen, Blount and Bolden. I’ll be looking for New England to use them to wear down the Colts early in the game to set up Brady for some late-game success if Indy’s offense can’t close the door.

For Indianapolis, Andrew Luck has to take advantage of Brandon Spikes going on injured reserve this week. He’s a big part of New England’s defense. With him out, there will be no need to force deep throws down the field, his check downs should rarely be covered.

It also creates an advantage in the run game for the Colts. Spikes is one of New England’s leading tacklers on the season and even though he’s not bad in pass coverage, run stopping is definitely his forte.

I don’t know much about the Patriots’ backup for Spikes, but I think it’s safe to assume that he won’t need to be the first guy the linemen go after when they block for Donald Brown, who is having a heckuva few weeks. The numbers may not look superb for him, but he’s going to have to be an integral part of Indy’s game plan if they want to play in this year’s AFC Championship game.

I will make my official prediction for this game on Friday. Tomorrow I will preview the two Sunday divisional round games.