With the regular season just a few days from opening, the
question many fans around the country are asking is, ‘what do the results from
this Preseason mean for my team over the next 17 weeks?’
The answer for each team is very different, so I can’t just
make a generalization to deliver to everyone. Instead I will go team-by-team.
Due to space I will only be able to dedicate a few sentences to each team so it
is my job to provide as much useful, relevant information as possible in a
short paragraph.
For each team there are two records in parenthesis. The first is that team’s 2012 Preseason
record. The second is my prediction
for their record at the end of the 2012 Regular Season.
Today, I am focusing on the AFC. Tomorrow I will do the same
for the NFC.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (0-4, 7-9)
The winless Preseason might have been more telling about the
Bills than either of the other two winless teams this August. This team is
already a big question, and earning no wins shows a serious lack of depth. My
initial prediction was probably a bit high. This team might only win four or
five games in 2012.
Miami Dolphins (0-4, 7-9)
It is more difficult to blame Miami’s Preseason woes on a
lack of depth. It is just as likely that they were severely distracted. When
the Jets were featured on Hard Knocks, they went 2-2 in the Preseason, but both
wins were squeakers. Nevertheless, they went on to a have an 11-5 regular
season. I am not sure that’s how Miami’s season will turn out, but you never
know.
New England Patriots
(1-3, 15-1)
I am now finding it easier to justify handing a couple more
losses to New England this year, but I still think they will run away with the
conference. New England’s defense is still weak, and their bench is not very
deep. But their starting offense is still a top-3 threat in the league. Their
backups were just that bad.
New York Jets (0-4, 6-10)
New York’s Preseason was… bizarre. They scored 21 points in
their first three games – ALL ON FIELD GOALS. They knocked in two against
Cincinnati, one against the Giants, and four against the Panthers. They opened
the scoring against the Eagles with a touchdown pass by Greg McElroy before
hitting an 8th field goal in a 28-10 loss in Philadelphia. The last
time a team went three full Preseason games before punching it into the end
zone was the 1977 Atlanta Falcons. That team went 7-7 only because they allowed
the fewest points ever in a 14-game season. I don’t think the Jets’ defense is
good enough to give them seven wins in a 16-game season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
(2-2, 12-4)
I don’t think a .500 Preseason is at all dooming for the
Ravens, considering they outscored their opponents by 16 points. They lost by a
lot to a very good Lions team and though the Rams beat them by two touchdowns,
that game was the Preseason finale and it was all backups. They beat the
Falcons 31-17 and the Jaguars 48-17 in weeks 1 & 3 respectively. Baltimore
has nothing to worry about and 12 wins is still very much in their court.
Cincinnati Bengals
(2-2, 5-11)
Cincinnati beat the Jets (not surprising) and the Falcons
(very surprising to me). They then lost to the Packers and the Colts, two games
they have every excuse in the world to lose. I’m on the fence with this team.
They aren’t a terrible group, but I don’t think they are as good as they were
last season. I’ll stick with 5 wins for this bunch.
Cleveland Browns
(2-2, 3-13)
The Browns played all four Preseason games against NFC
opponents. They beat two of what I consider the strongest teams in the division
in their first two games – Detroit, 19-17, and Green Bay, 35-10. They came back
to earth with losses to the Eagles and Bears (still strong teams, but I don’t
think as strong) in weeks 3 and 4. Again, it is just Preseason, but I look at
those two wins and see that this team has some fight. Will they win more than
the three I project them to? They might, they might not. But even if they
don’t, this team could be a part of a lot of exciting, close games this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
(3-1, 12-4)
The Steelers lost just once this Preseason, a 24-23 nail
biter to the Eagles in their first game. They then beat Indianapolis by two,
crushed the Bills, and beat the Panthers 17-16. I still believe this team will
challenge for the AFC North title, but I did not see anything this Preseason
that makes me think they can run away with it.
AFC South
Houston Texans (3-1, 12-4)
Houston is a good team, and they now have experience as a
contender. With Matt Schaub this team rolled over the Panthers and 49ers before
losing by 7 points to Drew Brees and the Saints. The Texans backups then edged
the Vikings. This team is still a favorite to win this division, and if Schaub
stays healthy, I have no doubt they will do so.
Indianapolis Colts
(2-2, 7-9)
I feel more confident in the Colts after this preseason, but
I still think playoffs are out of the question for them. An 8th win,
however, is a possibility. This team might be just two or three years out from
returning to postseason, and maybe even Super Bowl, contention. Andrew Luck
could have a really big year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
(3-1, 5-11)
The Jaguars actually did pretty well this Preseason, and
having Maurice Jones-Drew back from his holdout helps a lot. MJD will not start
in the first game of the season, but he most likely will from then on. The
problem with Jacksonville is that, despite their three Preseason wins, they
were outscored by a combined 17 points over their four games.
Tennessee Titans
(3-1, 5-11)
The Titans defense gave up less than 17 points/game this
preseason, which could be what saves them this season. Their offense is ok,
and, if he can stay healthy for once, Kenny Britt will be a huge asset for them
after he serves his one-game suspension.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (2-2, 10-6)
Denver’s defense may not be quite as good as it was last
year, but it is still up there, and hopefully as Peyton Manning continues to
get more comfortable in his system their defense won’t have to be as good. Less pressure will likely lead to better play
anyway. I still fully expect 10 wins from Denver. Also, Denver was the only
team in the division to outscore their opponents over the course of the 2012
Preseason.
Kansas City Chiefs
(1-3, 3-13)
The Chiefs opened the Preseason with a 10-point victory over
Arizona but then lost by 14 to St. Louis, by 30 to Seattle, and by 21 to Green
Bay. In all, the Chiefs were outscored by over 60 points over their four games.
I have little more to say about Kansas City.
Oakland Raiders (1-3, 4-12)
Losing to Dallas? I can buy that. Losing to Seattle in a
game started by backups? I can buy that, too. But losing to Arizona and winning
against the Lions? The Raiders are a big question mark for me.
San Diego Chargers
(3-1, 10-6)
San Diego beat Green Bay, Dallas and Minnesota. Their only
hiccup was a 35-3 shellacking handed to their backups by San Francisco’s
backups. I still hesitate to give more than 10 wins to the Chargers because
their problem hasn’t been August – it’s been December. But this team is doing
something right and if they play their cards right during the season, they
could be contending for a first round bye in the playoffs.
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