2013 Offseason Needs: AFC East

Today through Friday, I will be looking at what teams in each AFC division need to address this offseason. Next week, Tuesday through Friday, I will do the same for the NFC divisions.

I won’t pretend to know every detail of what each team needs, but am open to comments from those who may know better what their teams need.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have already gone under severe changes. They have a brand new coaching staff and a new team president. There are also rumors that Buddy Nix, Buffalo’s GM, may be on the hot seat.

Buffalo had several bright spots on offense this season. After a very poor second half of the 2011 season, Ryan Fitzpatrick performed well enough to keep analysts from attacking him too much in 2012. But the real splendor of their offense was at running back. Fred Jackson, when healthy, was as good as ever. When he wasn’t, CJ Spiller stepped into the starting role and was consistently one of the best backs in the league, earning him about half the team’s carries when Jackson was available.

Buffalo’s defense is the biggest area of concern. Certainly they need to shore up some offensive positions, but the defensive unit forced the offense into a lot of tough spots. Mike Pettine, the former defensive coordinator for the Jets, is now filling the same position in Buffalo. New York’s defenses have consistently ranked highly in the NFL, and compete in the same division as Buffalo. If they can keep some of their younger players, and add some depth, especially at linebacker and in the secondary, the Bills will be much more competitive in 2013 than they were this year.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are already on the way up. They were in the thick of the playoff race until a few weaknesses were exposed in the latter weeks of the season. They have a very good, young quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. Brian Hartline is a free agent, but the Dolphins need to keep him. He is one of the fastest receivers in the NFL and is the kind of playmaker that will aid in Tannehill’s development.

Reggie Bush also came out strong this season, finally playing like the draft pick he was touted to be coming out of college.

The Dolphins need to hold on to Hartline and add some other quality receivers. Beyond that, it’s tough to tell where to start with Miami. They have some good players on the defensive line and in the secondary, but not nearly enough depth. They also don’t have a big name besides Cameron Wake on defense. Big names aren’t crucial, but they’re a good way to get started on improving because they can help pull in other good players.

New England Patriots

New England finally had a good defensive showing in 2012. They had one of the league’s premier defenses during the first several years of Bill Belichick’s tenure, but really fell off the map around the time they stopped experiencing the postseason success they got used to. This year, they were the best in the league at creating turnovers, so despite giving up lots of yards, they limited scoring for opponents.

They also seem to be in a good place at running back, and locking up Tom Brady through his age-40 season is huge. There isn’t too much I can say about what the Patriots need this offseason. Keeping Wes Welker would be huge, adding some other talent at receiver would be big, and they could use some more depth on the line and secondary on defense. But the Patriots should be a contender in the AFC whether they fulfill all or none of these things.

New York Jets

As easy as it is to say, the Jets are not hopeless. Rex Ryan seemed to waiver as the season closed on his conviction that Mark Sanchez is his man at QB. However, it looks right now like they will be staying with Sanchez.

If that holds true, they need to add a more versatile running back. Shonn Greene showed some flashes of being what New York needs, but he isn’t consistent enough. The Jets need someone who can really open up the passing game, make the corners and safeties freeze for a half a second so Sanchez has some clear throwing lanes to hit his receivers.

New York also needs receivers who know how to take advantage of those holes. They have some guys who may have a bright future, but they need a veteran to come in who can make an immediate impact.

Tomorrow I will go through the AFC North, looking at each team’s offseason outlook just like I did for the AFC East today. Keep up with new posts as I publish them by ‘liking’ my Facebook page and by following me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2012 Season in Review, Last 8 Weeks

The tandem of rookies RG3 (10) and Alfred Morris (46) is the
basis of everything the Redskins do on offense.
Photo credit to NY Daily News.

Yesterday, I reviewed the first nine weeks of the regular season. So today, naturally, I am looking back at the second half of the regular season, which was very different for many teams and all too similar for others. My predictions for this weekend will come tonight on The All-Sports Crew’s blog and in each of my Wild-Card previews, which will start coming out tomorrow.

These are the NFL standings for the final 8 weeks of the regular season:

AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West
1. NE (7-1)	1. CIN (5-3)	1. IND (6-2)	1. DEN (8-0)
T-2. MIA (3-5)	2. BAL (4-4)	2. HOU (5-3)	2. SD (3-5)
T-2. NYJ (3-5)	3. CLE (3-4)	3. TEN (3-4)	T-3. OAK (1-7)
T-2. BUF (3-5)	4. PIT (3-5)	4. JAC (1-7)	T-3. KC (1-7)
NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
1. WAS (7-0)	T-1. GB (5-2)	T-1. ATL (5-3)	1. SEA (6-1)
2. DAL (5-3)	T-1. MIN (5-2)	T-1. CAR (5-3)	2. SF (5-2-1)
3. NYG (3-4)	3. CHI (3-5)	3. NO (4-4)	3. StL (4-3-1)
4. PHI (1-7)	4. DET (0-8)	4. TB (3-5)	4. ARI (1-6)

Of course the talk of the NFL in the second half of the season was the Redskins entering their bye week 3-6, voting Robert Griffin III a captain when they returned, and then going on to win their final 7 games to clinch the NFC East for the first time since 1999. Hidden in the shadow was the Colts’ run to nearly take back the AFC South and Cincinnati doing the same in the AFC North.

AFC East

The Bills had a decent offense, but their defense was atrocious. Ryan Tannehill did not carry his momentum into the second half of the season and the Jets were at the mercy of Mark Sanchez. The Patriots didn’t need to win 7 of their last 8 to run away with this division, but they did and now hold the AFC’s #2 seed.

AFC North

Baltimore seemed hot in the second half of the season, winning their first three games. They’ve dropped 4 of 5 now and only a win against the reeling Giants kept the Bengals from claiming the division. An injury to Ben Roethlisberger hurt Pittsburgh more than some people want to admit.

AFC South

Houston struggled late and Indy didn’t, allowing the Colts to come within a Week 15 loss in Houston of winning the AFC South. Jacksonville repeated their first-half record and the Titans struggled despite Chris Johnson getting into a groove and Jake Locker putting up big numbers in several games.

AFC West

The Broncos had an easy schedule but never let an opponent give them a serious scare as they rolled through the competition. The question for them is whether the lack of competition will hurt them in the postseason. San Diego only had the second best record during the second half because their competition was Oakland and Kansas City.

NFC East

The Giants suffered their typical late-season collapse and for once there was a team there to take advantage. In fact, there were two teams. The Redskins, as I mentioned, never lost in the second half of the season. The Cowboys made a late run at a division title but came up short in Week 17 against Washington. Philly has won just one game since the Phillies last victory and Andy Reid was fired the day after the regular season ended.

NFC North

Green Bay and Minnesota went neck-and-neck for the NFC North title and Green Bay held off the Vikings, despite losing to them in Week 17. Chicago, as I said early, was a product of an easy schedule. They lost to the good teams they faced in the second half.

NFC South

Carolina, as they did last year, picked it up in the second half. The hole was too deep for them, but they had the same record as the Falcons. If they can put things together for a full season, 2013 could be a scary year in the NFC South.

NFC West

Seattle scored over 170 points in their final four games – 150 points between Weeks 14, 15 and 16. They make fans of every other team nervous. The only thing that gives other teams’ fans a little relief is that they won’t be able to host a playoff game unless they play the Vikings in the NFC Championship. San Francisco held them off the division championship by virtue of a tie against the Rams.

2012 Season in Review, First 9 Weeks

The 'Monday Night Fiasco' finally put an end to the NFL's
replacement officials. Photo credit to CBS Chicago.

Happy New Year, everyone! To kick off 2013, I am reviewing the 2012 regular season. Today I will cover the first nine weeks and tomorrow I will review the last eight weeks of the season. My predictions for this weekend will come Wednesday on The All-Sports Crew’s blog and in each of my Wild-Card previews, which will start coming out Thursday.

Heading into Week 10, these were the standings in the NFL:

AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West
1. NE (5-3)	1. BAL (6-2)	1. HOU (7-1)	1. DEN (5-3)
2. MIA (4-4)	2. PIT (5-3)	2. IND (5-3)	2. SD (4-4)
T-3. NYJ (3-5)	3. CIN (3-5)	3. TEN (3-6)	3. OAK (3-5)
T-3. BUF (3-5)	4. CLE (2-7)	4. JAC (1-7)	4. KC (1-7)
NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
1. NYG (6-3)	1. CHI (7-1)	1. ATL (8-0)	1. SF (6-2)
T-2. DAL (3-5)	2. GB (6-3)	2. TB (4-4)	2. SEA (5-4)
T-2. PHI (3-5)	3. MIN (5-4)	3. NO (3-5)	3. ARI (4-5)
4. WAS (3-6)	4. DET (4-4)	4. CAR (2-6)	4. StL (3-5)

It seemed clear at the time that Atlanta and Houston were a close one-two in the NFL. Houston had picked up right where they left off when Matt Schaub got hurt in 2011 and the Falcons were flat-out winning, even if some games were closer than they should have been.

AFC East

The Patriots had suffered a few tough losses, and they didn’t have a feel of consistency to them. They seemed to be in line to win the division, but mostly on the merit of everyone else in the division being bad. Down in Miami, Ryan Tannehill was turning heads with pretty rapid improvement through the first several weeks.

AFC North

Baltimore kicked off the season with a big win over Cincinnati in which they showcased a very efficient hurry-up offense. Things settled down for them after that game but they kept control of the division early. Cincinnati started the season slow but Andy Dalton and A.J. Green were starting to make their offense look like a serious contender.

AFC South

Houston, as I mentioned, was considered one of the league’s best teams. Losing Brian Cushing seemed not to hurt as much as we thought it would, thanks mostly to J.J. Watt’s phenomenal play. Indianapolis, meanwhile, was in the middle of a CHUCKSTRONG campaign to win games for Coach Pagano, who was away from the team receiving treatment for leukemia.

AFC West

San Diego controlled the division early on, but a memorable second-half collapse handed the division on a silver platter to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, allowing Denver to lead the division with the hard part of their schedule completely out of the way.

NFC East

The Giants struggled in their season opener against Dallas, becoming the first defending Super Bowl champs to lose the NFL Kickoff Game. Dallas cooled off after that game and New York caught fire, winning six of their next eight.

NFC North

Chicago was rolling through the first half of their schedule, mostly due to a weak schedule. Their only loss was to Green Bay and they hadn’t played another good opponent otherwise. The Packers, meanwhile, were hot and cold early one but seemed to be on the rise. The Vikings were the surprise of the NFL. Adrian Peterson hadn’t been noticed as much as Christian Ponder as the second-year quarterback was playing excellent ball in the early part of the season.

NFC South

Atlanta was running away with the division and was the only undefeated team left after Week 9. Tampa Bay seemed to be picking things up and a young man named Doug Martin seemed to be inserting his name in Rookie of the Year discussions while Josh Freeman was throwing for 300+ yards seemingly every game. New Orleans was suffering the effects of having their head coach, and their interim head coach, on top of a few players, suspended.

NFC West

The 49ers had suffered a few letdowns but still seemed to be a close second to the Falcons in the conference. Seattle seemed more of a pretender than anything with a home win over New England in a game when Tom Brady played awful and of course the infamous ‘Monday Night Fiasco’ against Green Bay.

Replacement Refs

The first three weeks were dominated by talk of how poor a job the replacement officials were doing. We may have been a little too hard on them and not hard enough on the league for not getting a deal done with the officials’ union, but it was pretty bad and it all culminated on that Monday Night game between Seattle and Green Bay. Thankfully the madness ended within a couple days of that game and we the real refs were back from Week 4 on.

Bounty Scandal

The New Orleans Saints had to deal with a lot with the NFL’s crackdown on their bounty system, which we still don’t really seem to have concrete evidence of. They lost the first several games of the season, including an overtime loss to Kansas City, who never led during regulation of any game in the first half of the season.

Rookie Quarterbacks

With five rookies starting under center in Week 1, an NFL record was set. Never had so many rookies been named the starter of their team to kick off a season. Robert Griffin III, the 2011 Heisman Trophy Winner, was starting in Washington and quickly made the Redskins into one of the best rushing teams and one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Andrew Luck was not very efficient, but always seemed to come through in the clutch in Indy. Russell Wilson pissed a lot of people off against Green Bay on Monday Night when he threw the winning interception for Seattle. Ryan Tannehill showed improvement early in the season for Miami and Brandon Weeden was doing the same in Cleveland.

Thursday Night Football Afterword: Bills vs Dolphins

The Bills and Dolphins played in one of my Top 20 games
of 2012 so far. Photo credit to NFL Network.

Last night’s game was more interesting and exciting than I could have hoped for. The game went down to the final minutes, there were two return touchdowns, and they were division rivals in a cold weather game. The only thing missing was a blizzard.

The Bills dominated the first three quarters in terms of offensive yards, but a kickoff taken to the house kept the Dolphins in the game. Buffalo had so many possessions deep in Miami territory that it would have been upsetting if the Dolphins had snatched away the win, but they gave themselves a chance but stalling the drives and forcing four field goals. In fact, only one touchdown in the game didn’t come on a return, and surprisingly it belonged to Miami.

The Bills offense looked dangerous, but I will have a hard time deciding what I expect of them next week because they played against a defense that seemed to give a lackluster effort.

The second half saw no scoring until the fourth quarter when an incomplete pass was challenged and reversed into a touchdown reception by Davone Bess on a fantastic pass by Ryan Tannehill, unfortunately one of only a few really good-looking tosses by the rookie under center.

Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t throw for a ton of yards and his completion percentage was nothing mind blowing, but he had a great game nonetheless, drawing several pass interference calls from a defense trying too hard to shut down Donald Jones, who had been a fantastic alternate to Steve Johnson since the bye week.

But the Harvard grad didn’t have to be outstanding because C.J. Spiller ran all over the Miami defense with only one memorably bad run in the game, one in which he tried to bounce outside and get to the edge when there was much more running room up the middle.

The loss is the third in a row for the Dolphins while the Bills got a close win after suffering a close loss last week against New England. I hadn’t seen much from Miami’s past few games so last night was the first opportunity I had to see just how bad they look compared to earlier in the season. The Bills seem to have found their running game and their defense actually shut down a decent running attack, something they struggled mightily with throughout the first half of the season.

Neither team is really a playoff threat right now, but at least their fans will be treated to a few more good games, perhaps more so for Bills fans than ‘Fins fans.

Thanks for reading everyone and enjoy the rest of Week 11. I’ll be back Monday with my Sunday Afterwords!

Defining the 2012 Preseason: American Football Conference

With the regular season just a few days from opening, the question many fans around the country are asking is, ‘what do the results from this Preseason mean for my team over the next 17 weeks?’

The answer for each team is very different, so I can’t just make a generalization to deliver to everyone. Instead I will go team-by-team. Due to space I will only be able to dedicate a few sentences to each team so it is my job to provide as much useful, relevant information as possible in a short paragraph.

For each team there are two records in parenthesis. The first is that team’s 2012 Preseason record. The second is my prediction for their record at the end of the 2012 Regular Season.

Today, I am focusing on the AFC. Tomorrow I will do the same for the NFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (0-4, 7-9)

The winless Preseason might have been more telling about the Bills than either of the other two winless teams this August. This team is already a big question, and earning no wins shows a serious lack of depth. My initial prediction was probably a bit high. This team might only win four or five games in 2012.

Miami Dolphins (0-4, 7-9)

It is more difficult to blame Miami’s Preseason woes on a lack of depth. It is just as likely that they were severely distracted. When the Jets were featured on Hard Knocks, they went 2-2 in the Preseason, but both wins were squeakers. Nevertheless, they went on to a have an 11-5 regular season. I am not sure that’s how Miami’s season will turn out, but you never know.

New England Patriots (1-3, 15-1)

I am now finding it easier to justify handing a couple more losses to New England this year, but I still think they will run away with the conference. New England’s defense is still weak, and their bench is not very deep. But their starting offense is still a top-3 threat in the league. Their backups were just that bad.

New York Jets (0-4, 6-10)

New York’s Preseason was… bizarre. They scored 21 points in their first three games – ALL ON FIELD GOALS. They knocked in two against Cincinnati, one against the Giants, and four against the Panthers. They opened the scoring against the Eagles with a touchdown pass by Greg McElroy before hitting an 8^th field goal in a 28-10 loss in Philadelphia. The last time a team went three full Preseason games before punching it into the end zone was the 1977 Atlanta Falcons. That team went 7-7 only because they allowed the fewest points ever in a 14-game season. I don’t think the Jets’ defense is good enough to give them seven wins in a 16-game season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-2, 12-4)

I don’t think a .500 Preseason is at all dooming for the Ravens, considering they outscored their opponents by 16 points. They lost by a lot to a very good Lions team and though the Rams beat them by two touchdowns, that game was the Preseason finale and it was all backups. They beat the Falcons 31-17 and the Jaguars 48-17 in weeks 1 & 3 respectively. Baltimore has nothing to worry about and 12 wins is still very much in their court.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, 5-11)

Cincinnati beat the Jets (not surprising) and the Falcons (very surprising to me). They then lost to the Packers and the Colts, two games they have every excuse in the world to lose. I’m on the fence with this team. They aren’t a terrible group, but I don’t think they are as good as they were last season. I’ll stick with 5 wins for this bunch.

Cleveland Browns (2-2, 3-13)

The Browns played all four Preseason games against NFC opponents. They beat two of what I consider the strongest teams in the division in their first two games – Detroit, 19-17, and Green Bay, 35-10. They came back to earth with losses to the Eagles and Bears (still strong teams, but I don’t think as strong) in weeks 3 and 4. Again, it is just Preseason, but I look at those two wins and see that this team has some fight. Will they win more than the three I project them to? They might, they might not. But even if they don’t, this team could be a part of a lot of exciting, close games this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, 12-4)

The Steelers lost just once this Preseason, a 24-23 nail biter to the Eagles in their first game. They then beat Indianapolis by two, crushed the Bills, and beat the Panthers 17-16. I still believe this team will challenge for the AFC North title, but I did not see anything this Preseason that makes me think they can run away with it.

AFC South

Houston Texans (3-1, 12-4)

Houston is a good team, and they now have experience as a contender. With Matt Schaub this team rolled over the Panthers and 49ers before losing by 7 points to Drew Brees and the Saints. The Texans backups then edged the Vikings. This team is still a favorite to win this division, and if Schaub stays healthy, I have no doubt they will do so.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2, 7-9)

I feel more confident in the Colts after this preseason, but I still think playoffs are out of the question for them. An 8^th win, however, is a possibility. This team might be just two or three years out from returning to postseason, and maybe even Super Bowl, contention. Andrew Luck could have a really big year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, 5-11)

The Jaguars actually did pretty well this Preseason, and having Maurice Jones-Drew back from his holdout helps a lot. MJD will not start in the first game of the season, but he most likely will from then on. The problem with Jacksonville is that, despite their three Preseason wins, they were outscored by a combined 17 points over their four games.

Tennessee Titans (3-1, 5-11)

The Titans defense gave up less than 17 points/game this preseason, which could be what saves them this season. Their offense is ok, and, if he can stay healthy for once, Kenny Britt will be a huge asset for them after he serves his one-game suspension.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (2-2, 10-6)

Denver’s defense may not be quite as good as it was last year, but it is still up there, and hopefully as Peyton Manning continues to get more comfortable in his system their defense won’t have to be as good. Less pressure will likely lead to better play anyway. I still fully expect 10 wins from Denver. Also, Denver was the only team in the division to outscore their opponents over the course of the 2012 Preseason.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-3, 3-13)

The Chiefs opened the Preseason with a 10-point victory over Arizona but then lost by 14 to St. Louis, by 30 to Seattle, and by 21 to Green Bay. In all, the Chiefs were outscored by over 60 points over their four games. I have little more to say about Kansas City.

Oakland Raiders (1-3, 4-12)

Losing to Dallas? I can buy that. Losing to Seattle in a game started by backups? I can buy that, too. But losing to Arizona and winning against the Lions? The Raiders are a big question mark for me.

San Diego Chargers (3-1, 10-6)

San Diego beat Green Bay, Dallas and Minnesota. Their only hiccup was a 35-3 shellacking handed to their backups by San Francisco’s backups. I still hesitate to give more than 10 wins to the Chargers because their problem hasn’t been August – it’s been December. But this team is doing something right and if they play their cards right during the season, they could be contending for a first round bye in the playoffs.

Remember, tomorrow’s post will be just like today’s, but covering the NFC teams. I will make my week 1 predictions in Tuesday’s post. Wednesday I will publish my Season Opener preview before I go on-air with the rest of The All-Sports Crew on WMUC Sports Radio in College Park. Be sure to read and listen. Thank you and happy Labor Day!