Puff’s Points, Wild Card

Five head coaches were fired on Monday in addition to the one
midseason firing we had. Other jobs remain in the balance.

An early Happy New Year to you all! Also, happy birthday to my mother!

It’s not quite 2014 yet, but the 2013 regular season is over and it’s time for the playoffs to begin.

I will spend the next two days previewing and predicting each wild card game. But before I do that, I would like to give you this week’s list of things you should know, as well as my current power rankings (based on my own mathematical equation) of the 12 teams still standings.

Let’s get to it!

1. New Faces

Nearly half of this year’s playoff participants are new since last year. In the AFC, San Diego and Kansas City are making their first appearances since 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Half of the NFC participants were not in last year’s tournament. The Saints missed the playoffs last year following three straight trips. Philadelphia last appeared when they won the NFC East in 2010. It’s been a little longer for the Panthers as their last trip came in 2008 when they won the NFC South with a 12-4 record and then went one-and-done, losing to Arizona in the divisional round.

2. AFC West

Denver, Kansas City and San Diego have all earned spots in this year’s playoffs. This marks the fourth time in the past decade that a single division has taken both wild card spots in their conference’s bracket. The AFC North did it in 2011, the AFC South did it in 2007 and the NFC East did it in 2006.

Fun fact, of the four divisions that have done it in the past 10 years, only the 2011 AFC South had three teams with at least 10 wins (the Colts had 13, the Jaguars had 11 and the Titans had 10).

3. Third’s Not the Charm

This is the second year in a row that a team has won 10 games but finished third in their division and missed the playoffs. The Chicago Bears did it last year and the Arizona Cardinals suffered the same fate this season. It’s one of the few arguments for expanding the playoffs by one team per conference.

4. Black Monday

Several head coaches got the axe on Monday. More may come over the next week or so. Those given their papers on the first day of their teams’ offseasons were:

Rob Chudzinski in Cleveland

Mike Shanahan in Washington

Leslie Frazier in Minnesota

Greg Schiano in Tampa Bay

Jim Schwartz in Detroit

Remember that Houston fired Gary Kubiak midseason and Wade Phillips took over. We’ll be looking to see what happens with him and also with Mike Munchak in Tennessee.

5. Tomlin Takes the High Road

Mike Tomlin could have bitched and moaned about the officiating error in San Diego that allowed the Chargers to take Kansas City into overtime and eventually beat them, eliminating the Steelers from the playoffs.

Instead, he chose to take a different path. Though he does feel that officiating is something that should be high on the NFL’s offseason agenda, namely working a deal to make at least some of them full-time NFL employees, he put the blame on himself and his team.

Pittsburgh started the season 0-4. The fact that they pulled their record to 8-8 and came just a tiebreaker away from the playoffs was incredible. But when you dig that deep a hole for yourself, it’s hard to get upset over one officiating mistake.

6. 2014 Regular Season

Though the week-by-week schedule has not been released, we now know which teams will play each other and where each game will be played for next season.

Peyton Manning will get to host his old team next year but will have to travel to Foxboro to see Tom Brady like he did this season. Brady will have a tough road matchup of his own, though, as his Patriots will visit Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau.

Focusing on our local teams, let’s look at Washington first. The Redskins will face the NFC West and AFC South. They’ll be hosting the Rams, Seahawks, Jaguars and Titans and visiting the Cardinals, 49ers, Texans and Colts. They will also host the Buccaneers and visit the Vikings, based on their places in their respective divisions.

The Ravens will get the AFC South and the NFC South next year. They will host the Jaguars, Titans, Falcons and Panthers and will visit the Texans, Colts, Saints and Bucs. Did any of you notice that their AFC South home and away schedule is the same as Washington’s? They’re other conference games will be at Miami and at home against San Diego.

7. Pro Bowl

Most of you by now are aware that this year’s Pro Bowl will not feature an AFC team playing against an NFC team. Instead, the players with the most votes by position, regardless of conference, are placed into a pool and will be drafted to two teams, led by Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders.

As an example of the players being picked regardless of conference, of the six running backs that will be placed in the pool Jamaal Charles is the only one from an AFC team.

The teams with the most players voted to the Pro Bowl are:

San Francisco – 9 players (4 offensive, 5 defensive)

Kansas City – 8 players (2 offensive, 5 defensive, 1 special teams)

Seattle – 6 players (3 offensive, 3 defensive)

Carolina – 5 players (3 offensive, 2 defensive)

Cleveland – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 defensive)

Denver – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 special teams)

New Orleans – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 defensive)

For our local teams, the Ravens will have four players in the Pro Bowl. Marshal Yanda made it on the offensive line, Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs made it on defense, and Justin Tucker will be one of the kickers. The only Redskin voted into the Pro Bowl is offensive tackle Trent Williams.

8. Injury Report

Official injury reports have not yet been released for the upcoming weekend. Don’t be surprised if most teams don’t make their public until Friday. But we do know the status of a few key players going into Saturday and Sunday.

Clay Mathews will not be active for Green Bay’s game against San Francisco on Sunday. With Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb both healthy, though, the Packers should still be able to put together a solid game and maybe even pull off an upset against the 49ers, who are currently favored by 2.5 points.

Terence Newman and Tyler Eifert were both inactive for Cincinnati on Sunday but are listed as questionable for their Sunday matchup with San Diego.

Kansas City lists Tamba Hali as questionable. If he can play alongside Justin Houston, don’t be so sure that Indy will pull off the same result of their meeting in Houston in Week 16.

Looking ahead to the divisional round, Wes Welker has been cleared to practice for Denver after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago and Percy Harvin (hip) will practice this week and Seattle hopes to have him available next week.

9. Preseason Predictions

Below are my predictions from before the preseason began of who would make this year’s playoffs. Correct picks are in bold (didn’t necessarily get the seeding right for those teams):

AFC

1. Denver Broncos

2. New England Patriots

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Houston Texans

5. Miami Dolphins

6. Kansas City Chiefs

NFC

1. Chicago Bears

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. Washington Redskins

4. San Francisco 49ers

5. New Orleans Saints

6. Green Bay Packers

10. Power Rankings

Below is my list of power rankings, only taking the 12 playoff teams into consideration. Keep in mind that these do not take into account teams’ performances at home versus on the road. These consider the twelve teams’ entire seasons compared just to each other in several statistical categories.

1. SEA (2.287)	5. NO (3.397)	9. PHI (4.859)
2. CIN (2.524)	6. SF (3.792)	10. IND (5.014)
3. DEN (2.748)	7. NE (4.006)	11. SD (5.324)
4. CAR (3.256)	8. KC (4.532)	12. GB (5.446)

We’ll see how these rankings stand up this postseason. The way I would read it is that a higher ranked team should beat a lower ranked team when the higher ranked team is at home. For example, Denver should beat New England in Denver. But if the lower ranked team is at home, like when San Francisco plays at Green Bay this weekend, this may be less likely to correctly predict the winning team.

2013 Offseason Needs: AFC West

This week and next, between Tuesday and Friday, I am going through the NFL division-by-division, writing about what each team needs to address this offseason. I have covered the bases in the AFC East, AFC North and AFC South, so today I move on to the AFC West.

I won’t pretend to know every detail of what each team needs, but am open to comments from those who may know better what their teams need.

Denver Broncos

Denver’s offense doesn’t worry me. Manning will be healthier with an offseason to work at full strength. Knowshon Moreno also has an offseason to continue recovering from an injury that caused him to miss a lot of the middle part of the 2012 season. They have good depth at running back and receiver, their offensive line did a good job keeping Peyton on his feet, and unlike a lot of analysts, I’m a fan from what little I’ve seen of Brock Osweiler, their backup signal caller.

What Denver needs this offseason is defensive pieces, specifically in the secondary. A very weak schedule down the stretch hid some of their holes, but they were put on full display by a bizarre but effective offensive game plan by the Ravens in the divisional round. They need to add a good safety to help over the top. Denver has a few of the better corners in the league, but they’ll have off days like Champ Bailey did against Baltimore. Their safeties were unable to give help over top in that game, and that can’t be the case next year if Denver wants to be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Kansas City Chiefs

As soon as Kansas City picked up Andy Reid, I liked their chances for next season. Reid is still an excellent coach; it was just time for a change of scenery. Now they’ve picked up Alex Smith in what I consider a very fair trade with San Francisco. This team had the talent of a playoff team on a 2-14 team last season. Now they have a quarterback, and that could get them to the playoffs next season.

With the addition of Smith, I think there’s a better chance of keeping Dwayne Bowe, at the right price. Another thing that the trade gives them the ability to do is trade their #1 draft pick for more picks in this year’s draft, or to just take the best player available, which I guarantee you is not a quarterback.

Other than that, just add depth to the defensive unit and a wide receiver or two and this is a playoff caliber team.

Oakland Raiders

Oakland is a tough cookie to crack. Carson Palmer hasn’t panned out to this point, but it’s hard to say they should just get rid of him and go with Terrelle Pryor, who we haven’t seen much of since his days at Ohio State.

There is no doubt that this is a time of rebuilding in Oakland, and this project is going to take a few years. McFadden will likely be gone, if not this offseason then next; whenever the Raiders realize that they need more talent across the board rather than all their talent in one position.

After that, it will just be a matter of taken the best player available with each of their draft picks, because they don’t have much cap room to play with in free agency. Oakland is a mess and I think their 10-season run without a playoff appearance is going to increase by a few more years, especially with Denver a perennial contender for at least another three years and both Kansas City and San Diego likely on their way back up.

San Diego Chargers

I’m sure Denver would have liked to hold on to Mike McCoy as their offensive coordinator, but the way he’s carried himself over the past two seasons, getting the Broncos to the playoffs with Tim Tebow and then meeting Peyton Manning halfway in a brand new offense, he’s earned his job as head coach in San Diego. Believe it or not, Norv Turner has not put this team beyond repair. Philip Rivers is still a good quarterback and there’s a good shot that with McCoy’s help, we’ll see a little of the old Rivers in 2013.

I also liked McCoy’s hire at offensive coordinator, nabbing Ken Whisenhunt, who did good work in Arizona when he had decent quarterbacks leading his offenses.

The biggest areas of concern are the line on offense and the secondary on defense. Rivers was rarely given time in the pocket to go through more than a couple of his progressions, and their defense struggled mightily in the passing game. Depth in the backfield is also a concern with Ryan Mathews struggling to stay healthy.

On Monday I will recap the biggest news stories from the NFL of this week, then I will do what I’ve done for the past four days, but for the NFC divisions. Keep up with new posts as I publish them by ‘liking’ my Facebook page and by following me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2012 Season in Review, Last 8 Weeks

The tandem of rookies RG3 (10) and Alfred Morris (46) is the
basis of everything the Redskins do on offense.
Photo credit to NY Daily News.

Yesterday, I reviewed the first nine weeks of the regular season. So today, naturally, I am looking back at the second half of the regular season, which was very different for many teams and all too similar for others. My predictions for this weekend will come tonight on The All-Sports Crew’s blog and in each of my Wild-Card previews, which will start coming out tomorrow.

These are the NFL standings for the final 8 weeks of the regular season:

AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West
1. NE (7-1)	1. CIN (5-3)	1. IND (6-2)	1. DEN (8-0)
T-2. MIA (3-5)	2. BAL (4-4)	2. HOU (5-3)	2. SD (3-5)
T-2. NYJ (3-5)	3. CLE (3-4)	3. TEN (3-4)	T-3. OAK (1-7)
T-2. BUF (3-5)	4. PIT (3-5)	4. JAC (1-7)	T-3. KC (1-7)
NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
1. WAS (7-0)	T-1. GB (5-2)	T-1. ATL (5-3)	1. SEA (6-1)
2. DAL (5-3)	T-1. MIN (5-2)	T-1. CAR (5-3)	2. SF (5-2-1)
3. NYG (3-4)	3. CHI (3-5)	3. NO (4-4)	3. StL (4-3-1)
4. PHI (1-7)	4. DET (0-8)	4. TB (3-5)	4. ARI (1-6)

Of course the talk of the NFL in the second half of the season was the Redskins entering their bye week 3-6, voting Robert Griffin III a captain when they returned, and then going on to win their final 7 games to clinch the NFC East for the first time since 1999. Hidden in the shadow was the Colts’ run to nearly take back the AFC South and Cincinnati doing the same in the AFC North.

AFC East

The Bills had a decent offense, but their defense was atrocious. Ryan Tannehill did not carry his momentum into the second half of the season and the Jets were at the mercy of Mark Sanchez. The Patriots didn’t need to win 7 of their last 8 to run away with this division, but they did and now hold the AFC’s #2 seed.

AFC North

Baltimore seemed hot in the second half of the season, winning their first three games. They’ve dropped 4 of 5 now and only a win against the reeling Giants kept the Bengals from claiming the division. An injury to Ben Roethlisberger hurt Pittsburgh more than some people want to admit.

AFC South

Houston struggled late and Indy didn’t, allowing the Colts to come within a Week 15 loss in Houston of winning the AFC South. Jacksonville repeated their first-half record and the Titans struggled despite Chris Johnson getting into a groove and Jake Locker putting up big numbers in several games.

AFC West

The Broncos had an easy schedule but never let an opponent give them a serious scare as they rolled through the competition. The question for them is whether the lack of competition will hurt them in the postseason. San Diego only had the second best record during the second half because their competition was Oakland and Kansas City.

NFC East

The Giants suffered their typical late-season collapse and for once there was a team there to take advantage. In fact, there were two teams. The Redskins, as I mentioned, never lost in the second half of the season. The Cowboys made a late run at a division title but came up short in Week 17 against Washington. Philly has won just one game since the Phillies last victory and Andy Reid was fired the day after the regular season ended.

NFC North

Green Bay and Minnesota went neck-and-neck for the NFC North title and Green Bay held off the Vikings, despite losing to them in Week 17. Chicago, as I said early, was a product of an easy schedule. They lost to the good teams they faced in the second half.

NFC South

Carolina, as they did last year, picked it up in the second half. The hole was too deep for them, but they had the same record as the Falcons. If they can put things together for a full season, 2013 could be a scary year in the NFC South.

NFC West

Seattle scored over 170 points in their final four games – 150 points between Weeks 14, 15 and 16. They make fans of every other team nervous. The only thing that gives other teams’ fans a little relief is that they won’t be able to host a playoff game unless they play the Vikings in the NFC Championship. San Francisco held them off the division championship by virtue of a tie against the Rams.

2012 Season in Review, First 9 Weeks

The 'Monday Night Fiasco' finally put an end to the NFL's
replacement officials. Photo credit to CBS Chicago.

Happy New Year, everyone! To kick off 2013, I am reviewing the 2012 regular season. Today I will cover the first nine weeks and tomorrow I will review the last eight weeks of the season. My predictions for this weekend will come Wednesday on The All-Sports Crew’s blog and in each of my Wild-Card previews, which will start coming out Thursday.

Heading into Week 10, these were the standings in the NFL:

AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West
1. NE (5-3)	1. BAL (6-2)	1. HOU (7-1)	1. DEN (5-3)
2. MIA (4-4)	2. PIT (5-3)	2. IND (5-3)	2. SD (4-4)
T-3. NYJ (3-5)	3. CIN (3-5)	3. TEN (3-6)	3. OAK (3-5)
T-3. BUF (3-5)	4. CLE (2-7)	4. JAC (1-7)	4. KC (1-7)
NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
1. NYG (6-3)	1. CHI (7-1)	1. ATL (8-0)	1. SF (6-2)
T-2. DAL (3-5)	2. GB (6-3)	2. TB (4-4)	2. SEA (5-4)
T-2. PHI (3-5)	3. MIN (5-4)	3. NO (3-5)	3. ARI (4-5)
4. WAS (3-6)	4. DET (4-4)	4. CAR (2-6)	4. StL (3-5)

It seemed clear at the time that Atlanta and Houston were a close one-two in the NFL. Houston had picked up right where they left off when Matt Schaub got hurt in 2011 and the Falcons were flat-out winning, even if some games were closer than they should have been.

AFC East

The Patriots had suffered a few tough losses, and they didn’t have a feel of consistency to them. They seemed to be in line to win the division, but mostly on the merit of everyone else in the division being bad. Down in Miami, Ryan Tannehill was turning heads with pretty rapid improvement through the first several weeks.

AFC North

Baltimore kicked off the season with a big win over Cincinnati in which they showcased a very efficient hurry-up offense. Things settled down for them after that game but they kept control of the division early. Cincinnati started the season slow but Andy Dalton and A.J. Green were starting to make their offense look like a serious contender.

AFC South

Houston, as I mentioned, was considered one of the league’s best teams. Losing Brian Cushing seemed not to hurt as much as we thought it would, thanks mostly to J.J. Watt’s phenomenal play. Indianapolis, meanwhile, was in the middle of a CHUCKSTRONG campaign to win games for Coach Pagano, who was away from the team receiving treatment for leukemia.

AFC West

San Diego controlled the division early on, but a memorable second-half collapse handed the division on a silver platter to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, allowing Denver to lead the division with the hard part of their schedule completely out of the way.

NFC East

The Giants struggled in their season opener against Dallas, becoming the first defending Super Bowl champs to lose the NFL Kickoff Game. Dallas cooled off after that game and New York caught fire, winning six of their next eight.

NFC North

Chicago was rolling through the first half of their schedule, mostly due to a weak schedule. Their only loss was to Green Bay and they hadn’t played another good opponent otherwise. The Packers, meanwhile, were hot and cold early one but seemed to be on the rise. The Vikings were the surprise of the NFL. Adrian Peterson hadn’t been noticed as much as Christian Ponder as the second-year quarterback was playing excellent ball in the early part of the season.

NFC South

Atlanta was running away with the division and was the only undefeated team left after Week 9. Tampa Bay seemed to be picking things up and a young man named Doug Martin seemed to be inserting his name in Rookie of the Year discussions while Josh Freeman was throwing for 300+ yards seemingly every game. New Orleans was suffering the effects of having their head coach, and their interim head coach, on top of a few players, suspended.

NFC West

The 49ers had suffered a few letdowns but still seemed to be a close second to the Falcons in the conference. Seattle seemed more of a pretender than anything with a home win over New England in a game when Tom Brady played awful and of course the infamous ‘Monday Night Fiasco’ against Green Bay.

Replacement Refs

The first three weeks were dominated by talk of how poor a job the replacement officials were doing. We may have been a little too hard on them and not hard enough on the league for not getting a deal done with the officials’ union, but it was pretty bad and it all culminated on that Monday Night game between Seattle and Green Bay. Thankfully the madness ended within a couple days of that game and we the real refs were back from Week 4 on.

Bounty Scandal

The New Orleans Saints had to deal with a lot with the NFL’s crackdown on their bounty system, which we still don’t really seem to have concrete evidence of. They lost the first several games of the season, including an overtime loss to Kansas City, who never led during regulation of any game in the first half of the season.

Rookie Quarterbacks

With five rookies starting under center in Week 1, an NFL record was set. Never had so many rookies been named the starter of their team to kick off a season. Robert Griffin III, the 2011 Heisman Trophy Winner, was starting in Washington and quickly made the Redskins into one of the best rushing teams and one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Andrew Luck was not very efficient, but always seemed to come through in the clutch in Indy. Russell Wilson pissed a lot of people off against Green Bay on Monday Night when he threw the winning interception for Seattle. Ryan Tannehill showed improvement early in the season for Miami and Brandon Weeden was doing the same in Cleveland.