2014 NFL Afterword

Cory Puffett

It’s been almost eleven months since I’ve written a non-fantasy football blog post, and it’s with a very different perspective that I write this one.

I spent the 2013 season writing almost every single day, whether it was recapping or previewing games, trying to give you the low-down on the most important news of the week, or keeping you in the loop on my fantasy football league during it’s inaugural season.

Last year was the most fun I’ve had blogging about the NFL, and part of that was because my co-hosts on Football Freaks contributed to my blog from time to time. It’s the closest I’ve come to feeling like a professional NFL analyst.

This year I needed the time off from writing. I switched my college major and needed to get and stay on track with schoolwork. Hopefully I can return near last year’s production in 2015, but that’ll be determined at a later date.

In the mean time, I watched plenty of football this season, but not like last year.

Last year I watched football all day every Sunday and I would catch a lot of the games I missed on NFL Game Rewind. I haven’t gotten around to watching games that weren’t televised here this season, so I have a vastly different perspective when looking back on the regular season than I did at this time last year.

The 2014 season was certainly interesting, but it felt strange. My focus for most of the season was on fantasy football, so rather than analyzing teams every week, I was focused on individual players. I spent more time focusing on my team, the Redskins, rather than the rest of the league.

Of course, I was very in tune with what players were doing from one week to the next, but most weeks I couldn’t tell you which teams were really gelling and which were pretenders.

That said, there are a few things I do want to bring up in closing the 2014 season.

1. Romo haters can find someone new to harass

I still have Aaron Rodgers slated as my MVP, but Tony Romo is a very close second. Against the Redskins on Sunday he threw his first and only December interception of 2014. He finished the year with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions to go with a completion percentage of 69.9, more than three percentage points higher than any other season of his career in which he played at least half the season.

Obviously his haters won’t find a new target, they can come up with all kinds of things to say about the 2014 edition of Romo. He had the best offensive line in football, true. He had DeMarco Murray, true. He had Dez Bryant, true. But tell me your MVP favorite and I’ll give you another player with plenty of guys around him.

2. Peyton Manning is on the decline

Personally, I think the same can be said for Tom Brady, but after the way he rebounded earlier this season, I’m going to wait on that one. Peyton, however, seems to be a different issue. Kurt Warner argues that Peyton isn’t really declining, the Broncos are just focusing too much on the run game and are taking Manning out of his rhythm.

While Warner’s statement may have some merit, this is the best regular season quarterback of all time we’re talking about. Some would argue, and I myself have in the past, that he is the greatest quarterback of all time. He has never consistently thrown a tight spiral, but I can’t remember the last time he had a four- or five-game stretch with as many ducks as he’s thrown these past several weeks.

I’m not counting the Broncos out this postseason, but I have a feeling that if they manage to get back to the Super Bowl, it will be due to their run game and a defense that is much better than it was in 2013.

3. Seattle is no Super Bowl lock

Don’t get me wrong; the Seahawks can get there. If I’m not counting Denver out, there’s no way I can count out Seattle and still have any shred of merit as a football analyst. Seattle’s defense is every bit as good as it was last year. I’ve seen some inconsistencies that are a bit concerning, but the talent is all there and I have to believe they’ll pull it together in their playoff games.

But the offense is more than a little concerning. From what little I’ve seen of them, mixed with studying score sheets, this seems to be one of the more inconsistent units in the NFL. Obviously they had some issued early in the season, but even over the past month it seems like they’re hit or miss. I haven’t seen enough to say whether it’s play calling or Russell Wilson or something else, but even with the road to Super Bowl XLIX going through the pacific northwest, I’m not ready hand it to them.

4. Joe Flacco had a very solid 2014 season

I’m still hesitant to give him too much credit because of how quickly Baltimore fans are to take it to the bank. He’s still not elite.

However, I have to give credit where it is due and this was probably the second best season he’s had to date. Flacco set a career high for touchdown passes with 27 and threw just 12 picks. He even had eight games without an interception and, granted it was against Tampa Bay, a five-touchdown game. I don’t put much stock into his career-high 67.27 QBR because I’m not a fan of the stat, but his 90.9 passer rating was the second best of his career.

I’m not sold on Baltimore for the playoffs, but that’s mostly because of their poor passing defense. Their passing offense sits squarely in the middle of the NFL, which is good enough to get to the Super Bowl with a good defense. I just have a few too many questions about that side of the ball to give this team a shot at more than one playoff win.

5. Andrew Luck has not separated himself from the 2013 QBs

It sure seemed like he had during the first half of the 2014 season. In fact, he had separated himself from all QBs. He had the most touchdowns, the most yards, and don’t quote me on it but I think he had the best completion percentage at one point early in the season.

Maybe it was the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw, or maybe it was the sheer number of passes he’d already thrown, but Luck slipped back to the land of the mortals very quickly during the second half of the season. Early in the season he had his share of turnover problems, but his other production more than made up for that. The problem was he only had three turnover-free games all season and his production of late has been poor. After throwing for 300 yards and/or three touchdowns in each of his first ten games, he’s managed to do so just once in his past six, during which time he’s thrown six interceptions and lost four fumbles.

I will preview this weekend’s wild card games later this week. If you’d like to get my take on any other NFL topics, drop me a line and I’ll publish another post. Also, we plan to do an All-Sports Crew podcast this week, so look for a link to that on Facebook, Twitter or Google+ on Thursday or Friday.

2012 Pro Bowl Preview

Two rookie quarterbacks will be on their conferences’ rosters tomorrow in Hawaii. Neither was selected to the Pro Bowl when the initial rosters were announced. The lone rookie who was initially selected, Robert Griffin III, will not participate due to knee surgery after the season ended.

Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson will serve on their teams as alternates after several quarterbacks pulled out of the post-season all-star game. For the NFC team, Drew Brees replaces RG3 while Eli Manning is replacing Aaron Rodgers and Wilson is replacing Matt Ryan.

For the AFC, the only change is that Andrew Luck will replace Tom Brady, who pulled out due to an unspecified injury, probably to his ego.

For the 33^rd time, Hawaii is the location for the NFL’s all-star game. It’s a good way to end the season for the league’s best players whose teams didn’t do so hot, or fell just short of every team’s ultimate goal.

The Pro Bowl, however, is in danger of termination. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has stressed that if the game’s level of play is not significantly higher this year, the game will be cut from the league’s schedule.

Most fans are perfectly fine with this. I mean, who even watched the Pro Bowl? I will tomorrow, but the last time I watched and entire Pro Bowl from start to finish was probably four or five years ago, and that was the only complete Pro Bowl I’ve watched. It’s typically a boring game and the most interesting part is the mismatched helmets.

But the Pro Bowl is important, if only for being a way to recognize the best talent the NFL has to offer. Whether they change the setup to purely a skills competition or do something else with the format, the annual trip to Hawaii is a well-deserved treat for the best players in the NFL. They have worked their butts off all season to try and help their teams win and to provide their fans with something to cheer for even as their teams struggled.

Peyton Manning delivered a speech on the first day the players arrived in Hawaii, poking fun at himself and other players, but also very seriously imploring his peers on both the AFC and NFC squads to put their best foot forward this week. He doesn’t want to ruin this treat for future generations of NFL stars.

Monday I will recap the Pro Bowl. Tuesday marks the start of my Super Bowl XLVII coverage. Keep up with new posts by ‘liking’ my blog’s Facebook page and by following me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

Wild-Card Preview: Ravens vs Colts

Game 3:

Sunday, January 6, 2013

1:00pm – CBS

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

Rookie WR T.Y. Hilton has been one of the most explosive
players of 2012, and I don't see Baltimore containing him.
Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

The Ravens have been a tale of two seasons. They opened up the campaign with a blowout victory over the Bengals before losing to the Eagles at the mercy of the replacement officials. Clearly Baltimore should have won that game.

They bounced back, though, and edged the Patriots to start a 4-game win streak that ended in a blowout loss to Houston right before their bye.

Baltimore won their first four games coming off their week of rest, but they seem pretty insignificant now. They beat the Browns, the Raiders, the Steelers (barely) with Ben Roethlisberger out, and the Chargers.

Now the Ravens have lost four of their last 5. Yes, their losses have been to good teams – Batch didn’t turn the ball over eight times, so I’ll give Baltimore credit for that loss, even though they never had to face Big Ben this year – but guess who they’re playing on Sunday? A good team, that’s who.

Indianapolis struggled early, losing to the Bears – not exactly an awful loss to have, the Bears were solid early in the season – as well as the Jaguars and the Jets. But their only losses since have been to New England and Houston. They have won nine of their last eleven, so not only are they a good team, they’re a hot team, and that usually goes a long way in the postseason, just ask the Packers, the Steelers, and the Giants twice.

The Colts’ defense was terrible early in the season, but somehow they scraped a winning formula together and the defense has done what it needed to when Andrew Luck most needed the help.

In case you haven’t noticed, Luck is not a particularly great quarterback, or at least he hasn’t been this year. What he has been is clutch. He has a very poor completion percentage because he really only plays well in the clutch. Of course, some people would argue that him being clutch is exactly what does make him a great quarterback.

But Baltimore’s defense is shot right now and I don’t trust them to slow down Vick Ballard or their likely #2 guy, Mewelde Moore in the run game. Yes, Ray Lewis will be back, and he will deliver a boost. I just don’t think it will be enough.

They also will have a lot of trouble limiting the explosiveness of T.Y. Hilton, who I think will be the difference-maker on offense for Indianapolis. I think the game will have a close feeling to the end, but the Colts will put the dagger in late, making the score look more lopsided than the game ends up being.

Puff’s Pick:

Indianapolis Colts – 20

Baltimore Ravens – 7

MVP: T.Y. Hilton

10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 14

Andrew Luck is having one of the best rookie seasons of
all time. He has brought a quick turnaround to a 'spoiled' city.
Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

‘Like’ The All-Sports Crew on Facebook to keep up with updates! The All-Sports Crew will NOT air on WMUC Sports tonight. We hope to put a podcast out sometime this week, so look for updates on that.

10.            Bear Problems

If the Bears weren’t already in trouble, they certainly are now. Brian Urlacher hopes to be back for the playoffs, but he will sit out the rest of the regular season with a hamstring injury.

As if that weren’t bad enough, a shoulder injury from the Seahawks game has Tim Jennings’ status uncertain, receiver Earl Bennett is expected to be out against the Vikings, and Devin Hester is trying to come back from a concussion while Alshon Jeffery is coming back from a knee issue.

9.            Playoff Hunt

Houston can clinch their division with a win and a loss or tie by the Colts. Baltimore can win the AFC North crown with a win and losses by both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. New England and Denver have both clinched their divisions already.

In the NFC, Atlanta has clinched the NFC South. The other three divisions cannot be won this week, but San Francisco can clinch a playoff spot with a lot of help. They need a win, but they would also need Dallas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Washington to lose and St. Louis or Seattle to lose or tie.

The Bengals are the first team out in the AFC, with the Jets, Bills and Dolphins trailing them by two games. The Redskins are the first team out in the NFC with tiebreakers over Tampa Bay and Minnesota and the tiebreaker so far over Dallas, all of whom have the same 6-6 records as Washington.

8.            Fantasy Disappointments

There were plenty of fantasy disappointments this week, so I’ll just list a few that stood out to me.

• Tom Brady had his worst fantasy game of the season against Miami on Sunday, scoring just 12 points against a team he usually lights it up against.
• Drew Brees takes the cake, this week. Just 3 fantasy points in his five-interception, zero-touchdown performance against Atlanta. It was just his third sub-20 point game of the season, and his first with fewer than 16 points.

7.            Fantasy Surprises

• Donnie Avery hadn’t made much noise since the first two weeks of the season, but two touchdowns made for a nice 23.5 points in my fantasy league.
• Brady Quinn had not scored more than 4 points in a game this season. In fact, he only had 10 total fantasy points on the season. But the Chiefs played inspired on Sunday and Quinn was not immune has he threw his first two touchdowns of the season, topped 200 yards passing for the first time this season, and did not turn the ball over in a 19-point fantasy performance.
• Not really a surprise, but it is worth noting that Adrian Peterson had his second 30-point fantasy game of the season, his first game with 200 rushing yards this season, and his sixth consecutive game with 100 or more rushing yards.

6.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.

• Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
• Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)
• Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:30 p.m.)

5.            Power Rankings

For the sake of space, I will list just the top 6 and the bottom 6 here. You can see the rest on NFL.com.

1. Houston Texans	27. Carolina Panthers
2. Atlanta Falcons	28. Tennessee Titans
3. New England Patriots	29. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Denver Broncos	30. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. San Francisco 49ers	31. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Baltimore Ravens	32. Oakland Raiders

The Jets and Rams jumped four and five spots respectively while the Giants and Saints both fell four. Other than that the biggest difference is that Around The League now considers Oakland to be the worst in the NFL.

The Power Poll is a better representation of where the teams stack up, in my opinion. Check that out here.

4.            Puff’s Rankings

I’ve taken the liberty of ranking every team in the NFL for myself. I ranked each team in a number of categories and then used a math formula to take each of them into consideration in my overall rankings of the teams. Here are my rankings heading into Week 14.

1. HOU (4.350)	9. SEA (7.735)	17. ARI (9.235)	25. IND (11.385)
2. SF (5.630)	10. CIN (8.330)	18. SD (9.580)	26. BUF (11.990)
3. DEN (6.200)	11. BAL (8.340)	19. CAR (9.735)	27. PHI (12.280)
4. NE (6.315)	12. WAS (8.445)	20. StL (9.985)	28. MIA (12.505)
5. CHI (6.370)	13. PIT (8.570)	21. CLE (10.450)	29. KC (12.705)
6. NYG (6.625)	14. DET (8.855)	22. NO (10.775)	30. OAK (12.900)
7. ATL (6.935)	15. DAL (9.000)	23. NYJ (10.795)	31. TEN (13.275)
8. GB (7.155)	16. TB (9.210)	24. MIN (10.980)	32. JAC (13.505)

Keep in mind this is essentially a ranking of where each team should be at this point in the season, based on various aspects of performance, with certain aspects weighted more heavily than others. Some teams have over- or under-achieved.

Feel free to ask about this, but please be clear that this is not necessarily how I would rank the teams, this is all math based.

3.            Atlanta Falcons

Well, the Falcons beat the Saints, so they have that going for them. They have already clinched the NFC South, but I don’t give that all that much merit. The defense is carrying the team, but the fact that they needed five takeaways to barely win against New Orleans tells me that this team is not one that is ready to perform in the playoffs against the best in the NFC.

2.            Houston Texans

The Texans are undoubtedly the best team in the NFL right now. They had a slip up against Green Bay that had everyone wondering if the Texans would collapse, especially with the loss of Brian Cushing. Wade Phillips has done a fantastic job with that defense and some of you may have even forgotten Cushing is out until I mentioned it just now. Their offense is no slouch, either. Unlike the Ravens, who also have an incredibly talented running back, the Texans use theirs. Also unlike the Ravens, the Texans actually have a quarterback that can drive them down the field consistently.

1.            MVP Race

I read an interesting piece by Adam Schein on NFL.com yesterday that really got me thinking. Schein has the honor of being one of the people who vote for who gets various AP Awards in the NFL, including MVP. His choice, right now, is Andrew Luck. It is easy to dismiss him right off the bat, for being a rookie if for no other reason, but he brings up a great point.

Of course, if we throw him into the mix we have to eliminate Peyton Manning – there is no guarantee that the Broncos couldn’t have a similar record since their three losses came against terrific competition and their wins haven’t really. You also have to eliminate Tom Brady – we’ve seen what a bad quarterback can do with that team with Belichick at the helm. And Adrian Peterson is also eliminated, for reasons other than the Vikings not likely being in the playoffs – Peterson hasn’t made a big impact on the Colts record, while Luck has.

Five game winning drives this season by the rookie, five of them. The Colts are almost certainly a top-10 draft pick team without Luck. With him, they are a very likely playoff team and only two games behind the Texans. If the rest of the voters can get over the fact that he’s a rookie, Andrew Luck is the obvious choice. Of course, maybe Robert Griffin III would then also have a case.

Thursday Night Football Afterword: Jaguars vs Colts

The Jaguars played a good enough game to retain my
interest, but still look like a bad team.

The 27-10 final score doesn’t exactly tell the whole story of last night’s game. The Jaguars seemed to play better than the 17-point deficit indicates, but it was an easy win for the Colts.

Andrew Luck continues to impress. He makes all the throws and he is always so calm, never rushed. On one play late in the game, after Dawan Landry hit him as he slid on a scramble, he pushed all his players away when they started defending him and going after Landry. This is as good a young quarterback as I’ve ever seen, and I watched Peyton Manning’s rookie campaign.

As for the Jaguars, the offense is definitely a concern. Blaine Gabbert actually played a decent game, though when he went out with a shoulder injury and Chad Henne stepped in, Henne looked like he should be the starting quarterback.

The problem right now for Jacksonville is that they have no playmakers. Laurent Robinson, who broke out as a #3 receiver in Dallas last year, made plenty or grabs last night but he couldn’t deliver many yards after the catch. Justin Blackmon was uninvolved, and that leaves Cecil Shorts, who is the star of this offense, not that it says much.

He made a fantastic grab in the second quarter of the game that was reversed on the challenge, but I think it was a bad decision to take the reception away. It was a route up the sideline; Gabbert threw a good but nearly uncatchable pass. Shorts went up for it, caught it with one hand, came down, and the ball popped out when he hit the ground. Initially it was called a reception. Now, I know that if the ball comes out when you hit the ground, it’s an incompletion. But after establishing two feed in bounds, another foot went out of bounds before he hit the ground, and my understanding of the rule is that he it then no longer matters if he retains control all the way to the ground.

Reggie Wayne isn’t particularly young any more, but he sure has been playing like it. Andrew Luck is so similar to Peyton, just more mobile and maybe slightly less accurate, but because of the similarities, Wayne has clicked with his quarterback very quickly and is playing at the level we expected to see week in and week out during his first several years in the league.

Jacksonville lost control of the game mostly because of turnovers. The Colts had only forced three turnovers during their first eight games, which tied an NFL record for fewest takeaways in the first half of the season. Last night, they doubled their takeaways for the year as the Jaguars lost possession three times on turnovers.

Jacksonville is in a rough spot, but I saw some things in the offense that they can build on to have a successful team, not this year, but down the road if they make the most of the offseason. I saw enough, in fact, that I might be willing to move them out of the bottom floor of the league and replace them with the Chiefs, but this is still a bad team and one that might not win another game this season.

Thanks for reading everyone and enjoy the rest of Week 10. I’ll be back Monday with my Sunday Afterwords!

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 9 Early Games

Brian Urlacher is the latest Bear to return an INT for a TD
in this historic season.

After incorrectly picking the Chiefs to win Thursday night, I needed some early success on Sunday, and that’s just what I got. The only early game I got wrong was my prediction that the Redskins would beat the Panthers. Carolina’s defense played better than they have all season and Washington’s defense did not. That was really the story of the game as the Panthers ended their five-game losing streak.

Peyton Manning now owns the all-time record for fourth quarter comebacks, as his 48^th came in a 31-23 win in Cincinnati, improving Denver’s record to 5-3. Also 5-3 is Peyton’s old team, the Indianapolis Colts. Rookie quarterback Andrew Luck set the record for most passing yards in a single game by a rookie quarterback as his Colts held off the visiting Dolphins, 23-20. Chuck Pagano delivered a very emotional post-game speech.

Baltimore’s defense was not good, but they shut down Cleveland’s offense when it mattered most, holding them to five field goals and allowing the offense to put up enough to get the road win, 25-15.

Green Bay beat the Cardinals and Houston shut down Buffalo in a couple of games that weren’t all that memorable.

Detroit’s 31-14 victory in Jacksonville is memorable mostly because not one of Detroit’s touchdowns came on a pass by Matthew Stafford.

Chicago’s defense is dominant, that much is certain. Everyone and their mother knows I have been hesitant to jump on the Bears’ bandwagon, and a win over the Titans certainly will not change that. That said, through eight games Chicago’s defense has returned seven interceptions for touchdowns, which is already an NFL record and impressive no matter who their opponents have been. Charles Tillman forced four fumbles in the game, which is also very impressive.

Check back later for my Sunday Football Afterword for the three late games. Thanks for reading everyone!

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 8 Early Games

Michael Vick said after the game that Andy Reid is
"obviously considering a change" at quarterback.

Once again the NFL scheduled a ridiculous number of games for the Sunday 1 p.m. time slot; it certainly kept me busy trying to keep up with everything. As was the case last week, I couldn’t keep track of everything so I’ll talk about what I know and I won’t talk about what I don’t.

Carolina didn’t play particularly well, and Cam Newton threw two picks, but the Bears played their worst game of the season defensively, allowing him over 300 passing yards. Carolina led 19-7 in the fourth quarter but the Bears offense finally came alive and took the lead twice in the final minutes of the game, the second time coming on a 41-yard field goal on the last play of the game to give them a 23-22 victory. The Bears were honestly lucky to win, but win they did.

Cleveland knocked off San Diego in an outcome that I predicted, but I didn’t get to see much footage from the game so I’ll just say it was a 7-6 victory, the second win for the Browns this season.

Matt Stafford finally had a good game and he barely used Calvin Johnson. He threw three touchdowns, his first multi-touchdown game of the season. Seattle’s secondary finally had a poor game. I won’t discredit them for it yet; after all, they did shut down Tom Brady’s passing game and I can’t truly fault them for overlooking Matt Stafford who had been the second most disappointing quarterback in the league until yesterday.

Jacksonville was in the game for a while, but without Maurice Jones-Drew I didn’t expect it to last, and it didn’t. Green Bay won 24-15 at home to keep pace in the NFC North.

I expected Miami to beat the Jets, but I didn’t expect them to blow New York out of MetLife Stadium, and I certainly did not expect them to do so with Ryan Tannehill hurt. He went down in the first quarter after throwing for just 18 yards and Matt Moore came in and played pretty well. The Jets, a week after a very close loss to the Patriots, were crushed 30-9 in one of their poorer defensive showings of the season.

The Patriots came off the close win with their first win over an NFC West opponent this season. After losses to Arizona and Seattle, they scored touchdowns on each of their first five drives and rode that to a 45-7 victory over the Rams, who were playing as the home team in this year’s edition of the NFL’s Europe series.

One streak had to end, and it was not Atlanta’s run at an unbeaten season. Andy Reid is now 13-1 coming off a bye after the Falcons trounced his Eagles in Philadelphia. The 30-17 score is much closer than the game itself was. But people calling for Michael Vick’s head, STOP! Philadelphia’s defense did not get a stop until the 4^th quarter. That’s not something you can overcome.

Pittsburgh played a fantastic game. Their offense took advantage of Washington’s ineptness on defense and the Steelers defense did what no other team has been able to this season – shut down Robert Griffin III. Now, for anyone thinking that this is a sign that RGIII is in danger or having a Cam Newton-like season next year, don’t jump the gun. Keep in mind that the Redskins receivers dropped at least eight passes, several on third down plays that would have gone for first downs. We could have had a completely different ball game. But we can’t take anything away from Pittsburgh, who used everything to their advantage as a good team has to.

The final game of the early afternoon was in Tennessee where Andrew Luck gave Indianapolis fans something they haven’t been treated to in a couple of seasons; a fourth quarter comeback. Luck led an 80-yard drive to end regulation, capped with a touchdown, to send the game into overtime. Then he let another 80-yard touchdown drive to steal the win from Tennessee.

Check back later for my Sunday Football Afterword for the three late games. Thanks for reading everyone!