2014 NFL Afterword

Cory Puffett

It’s been almost eleven months since I’ve written a non-fantasy football blog post, and it’s with a very different perspective that I write this one.

I spent the 2013 season writing almost every single day, whether it was recapping or previewing games, trying to give you the low-down on the most important news of the week, or keeping you in the loop on my fantasy football league during it’s inaugural season.

Last year was the most fun I’ve had blogging about the NFL, and part of that was because my co-hosts on Football Freaks contributed to my blog from time to time. It’s the closest I’ve come to feeling like a professional NFL analyst.

This year I needed the time off from writing. I switched my college major and needed to get and stay on track with schoolwork. Hopefully I can return near last year’s production in 2015, but that’ll be determined at a later date.

In the mean time, I watched plenty of football this season, but not like last year.

Last year I watched football all day every Sunday and I would catch a lot of the games I missed on NFL Game Rewind. I haven’t gotten around to watching games that weren’t televised here this season, so I have a vastly different perspective when looking back on the regular season than I did at this time last year.

The 2014 season was certainly interesting, but it felt strange. My focus for most of the season was on fantasy football, so rather than analyzing teams every week, I was focused on individual players. I spent more time focusing on my team, the Redskins, rather than the rest of the league.

Of course, I was very in tune with what players were doing from one week to the next, but most weeks I couldn’t tell you which teams were really gelling and which were pretenders.

That said, there are a few things I do want to bring up in closing the 2014 season.

1. Romo haters can find someone new to harass

I still have Aaron Rodgers slated as my MVP, but Tony Romo is a very close second. Against the Redskins on Sunday he threw his first and only December interception of 2014. He finished the year with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions to go with a completion percentage of 69.9, more than three percentage points higher than any other season of his career in which he played at least half the season.

Obviously his haters won’t find a new target, they can come up with all kinds of things to say about the 2014 edition of Romo. He had the best offensive line in football, true. He had DeMarco Murray, true. He had Dez Bryant, true. But tell me your MVP favorite and I’ll give you another player with plenty of guys around him.

2. Peyton Manning is on the decline

Personally, I think the same can be said for Tom Brady, but after the way he rebounded earlier this season, I’m going to wait on that one. Peyton, however, seems to be a different issue. Kurt Warner argues that Peyton isn’t really declining, the Broncos are just focusing too much on the run game and are taking Manning out of his rhythm.

While Warner’s statement may have some merit, this is the best regular season quarterback of all time we’re talking about. Some would argue, and I myself have in the past, that he is the greatest quarterback of all time. He has never consistently thrown a tight spiral, but I can’t remember the last time he had a four- or five-game stretch with as many ducks as he’s thrown these past several weeks.

I’m not counting the Broncos out this postseason, but I have a feeling that if they manage to get back to the Super Bowl, it will be due to their run game and a defense that is much better than it was in 2013.

3. Seattle is no Super Bowl lock

Don’t get me wrong; the Seahawks can get there. If I’m not counting Denver out, there’s no way I can count out Seattle and still have any shred of merit as a football analyst. Seattle’s defense is every bit as good as it was last year. I’ve seen some inconsistencies that are a bit concerning, but the talent is all there and I have to believe they’ll pull it together in their playoff games.

But the offense is more than a little concerning. From what little I’ve seen of them, mixed with studying score sheets, this seems to be one of the more inconsistent units in the NFL. Obviously they had some issued early in the season, but even over the past month it seems like they’re hit or miss. I haven’t seen enough to say whether it’s play calling or Russell Wilson or something else, but even with the road to Super Bowl XLIX going through the pacific northwest, I’m not ready hand it to them.

4. Joe Flacco had a very solid 2014 season

I’m still hesitant to give him too much credit because of how quickly Baltimore fans are to take it to the bank. He’s still not elite.

However, I have to give credit where it is due and this was probably the second best season he’s had to date. Flacco set a career high for touchdown passes with 27 and threw just 12 picks. He even had eight games without an interception and, granted it was against Tampa Bay, a five-touchdown game. I don’t put much stock into his career-high 67.27 QBR because I’m not a fan of the stat, but his 90.9 passer rating was the second best of his career.

I’m not sold on Baltimore for the playoffs, but that’s mostly because of their poor passing defense. Their passing offense sits squarely in the middle of the NFL, which is good enough to get to the Super Bowl with a good defense. I just have a few too many questions about that side of the ball to give this team a shot at more than one playoff win.

5. Andrew Luck has not separated himself from the 2013 QBs

It sure seemed like he had during the first half of the 2014 season. In fact, he had separated himself from all QBs. He had the most touchdowns, the most yards, and don’t quote me on it but I think he had the best completion percentage at one point early in the season.

Maybe it was the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw, or maybe it was the sheer number of passes he’d already thrown, but Luck slipped back to the land of the mortals very quickly during the second half of the season. Early in the season he had his share of turnover problems, but his other production more than made up for that. The problem was he only had three turnover-free games all season and his production of late has been poor. After throwing for 300 yards and/or three touchdowns in each of his first ten games, he’s managed to do so just once in his past six, during which time he’s thrown six interceptions and lost four fumbles.

I will preview this weekend’s wild card games later this week. If you’d like to get my take on any other NFL topics, drop me a line and I’ll publish another post. Also, we plan to do an All-Sports Crew podcast this week, so look for a link to that on Facebook, Twitter or Google+ on Thursday or Friday.

Sunday Football Afterword: Ravens vs Browns

Joe Flacco's wife Dana gave birth shortly before the Ravens
and Browns kicked off on Sunday.

Sean Kennedy

Joe Flacco had a lot on his mind yesterday. His son was born an hour before kickoff and his team struggled for most of the game. Most of the game was missed opportunities and low scoring as neither team could seem to find the end zone until the third quarter, when Bernard Pierce scored on a 5-yard run. Flacco found Marlon Brown halfway through the 4^th quarter.

Brandon Weeden looked decent throughout the game but failed to find the end zone. Both running games did not do much damage as the solid defenses on both ends made it difficult for any breakout runs. There was a scary moment in the 4^th quarter when star running back Ray Rice went down with an apparent hip injury.

Overall, the game was not interesting until halfway through the 3^rd quarter. The Ravens defense looked good with 5 sacks and 5 deflected passes. I expect the offense to pick up more as the weeks go on. The offense has to pick itself up if they expect to win next week when the Texans come to town.

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2013 Week 1 Preview: Broncos vs Ravens

Joe Flacco graces Mile High Stadium alongside Denver's quarterback.
Photo credit to TheBigLead.com.

As the catchy commercial featuring Youth Lagoon’s “Daydream” has been saying for the past few weeks, football is back!!

Due to a scheduling conflict with the Baltimore Orioles (Ravens fans have no-one to blame but their neighbors), the defending Super Bowl champions will open the season on the road, a mile above sea level, in Denver.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos saw their Super Bowl hopes die in the same stadium, against the same team, in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs. With Von Miller serving the first of a six-game suspension, and Elvis Dumervil lining up on the other side of the ball this time around, it will be no small task to reverse their fortunes and open the season with a victory.

There are plenty of new faces on Baltimore’s defense, and absent faces on both sides of the ball. Ray Lewis is retired, Ed Reed is in Houston, Corey Webster is in New York and, on offense, Anquan Boldin is in San Francisco. But the Ravens’ front office has done a good job filling those holes on defense and an adequate job of doing so on offense. This is a team very capable of defending their AFC North crown, though I still say a repeat Super Bowl title is a long-shot.

I expect Ray Rice to gain a lot of yards against a thinned Denver linebacker corps, and Flacco should have plenty of time to read the defense with so many sacks missing from Denver’s front seven.

The question for me is whether the Ravens can keep up with the Broncos’ own high-octane offense. Denver will put up points in every game this season, I don’t care what defense they’re facing. Can Baltimore’s offense avoid their typical post-first-drive slump to keep up? The answer to that question will determine the outcome of the NFL’s season opener.

Follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2013 Offseason Update, Week 15

The 'Patriot Killer' is now a member of the Tennessee Titans and has
chosen not to attend the Raven's White House visit in June.
Photo credit to IBN Sports Wrap.

There were a few interesting pieces of news this week. In addition, a friend of mine has been arguing with me that Joe Flacco is an elite quarterback due to his recent Super Bowl MVP award. So I’d like to go over my top current NFL quarterbacks and cover why I don’t consider Flacco one of the NFL’s elite just yet.

Bernard Pollard to Boycott Ravens’ White House Visit

When the Ravens visit the White House as Super Bowl champions this June, Bernard Pollard will not be with them. The safety was released by Baltimore in March and is now with the Titans on a one-year deal.

Some think Pollard is being childish, holding a grudge, and that he will regret this decision when he is retired from the NFL, especially if he fails to win a Super Bowl with another team. But I respectfully disagree. I would not want to carry the memory of visiting the White House with my former teammates and the team executives who released me so soon after helping them win it all.

Freeney, Cribbs Land on West Coast

Josh Cribbs has been in the NFL since 2005, Freeney since ’02, and both have known only one team during their careers.

In eight years with the Browns, Josh Cribbs has made three Pro Bowl rosters and was named to the NFL 2000s All-Decade Team. He is also tied with Leon Washington for the most kickoff return touchdowns in NFL history with eight. He signed a one-year deal with the Oakland Raiders on Wednesday.

Dwight Freeney is entering his 12^th year in the NFL after spending the first 11 in Indianapolis. He was a major part of a strong defensive unit that helped the Colts win Super Bowl XLI and was a part of their AFC Championship in 2009. A 7-time Pro Bowler and the Colts’ all-time sacks leader, Freeney was a part of the NFL’s 2000s All-Decade Team with Josh Cribbs. He agreed in principle to a two-year deal with the Chargers on Saturday.

NFL’s Top Quarterbacks

At any given time, there can be several elite active quarterbacks in the NFL. There have also been times when there were no elite active quarterbacks. Right now, I see four of them.

1) Aaron Rodgers

2) Peyton Manning

3) Drew Brees

4) Tom Brady

I also see two quarterbacks who have shown flashes of brilliance but who have minor inconsistencies keeping them from being truly elite.

5) Matt Ryan

6) Eli Manning

Then I see a few more quarterbacks who could get there but have either been severely too inconsistent or are just too young to be considered in that group so soon.

7) Joe Flacco

8) Tony Romo

T-9) Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick

My Take on Joe Flacco’s ‘Elite-ness’

Now, before the Flacco lovers rip my list to shreds, let me first say that I was more generous to Joe than NFL.com, who this week ranked him the 13^th best quarterback in the NFL, behind Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and even Cam Newton. They put Flacco in a group of ‘Solid Dudes’ with Tony Romo, Matt Stafford and Jay Cutler.

Now, the real question you probably want answered is: why do I rank Matt Ryan and Eli Manning not only ahead of Flacco, but far enough ahead that they deserve their own group in which I do not include Flacco?

Well, in Eli’s case, he has shown consistent growth over his career. He had a solid, if under-reported, season in 2007 helping his team to a wild-card birth and a Super Bowl victory over the 18-0 New England Patriots. He was a big part in the Giants constantly getting better over the course of that season. He continued his growth until he had a truly elite season in 2011. Last year was the first time in his career that he took a step back from his previous accomplishments. For that, I do not consider him elite, but he could join that group with another strong season or two and more consistency afterwards. Remember that Manning had a much better season than Joe Flacco did during the Giants’ 2011 Super Bowl run.

Matt Ryan has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks since his sophomore season, consistently putting up great regular season numbers. He would have been the league MVP last year if it wasn’t for his 5-INT game against the Cardinals. In fact, in just about every way except for passing yards, I think Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The thing holding him back is a very poor game or two every regular season and the postseason troubles. Granted, most of their postseason failure has been more due to poor game planning than due to Ryan – with the one exception being their 24-2 loss to New York in 2011 – but until he clearly gets over that hump, it will be difficult to make a strong argument for him being elite.

Now, what about Joe Flacco? He’s won a playoff game every year of his career, the first quarterback to do so through five seasons in the league. He just won Super Bowl MVP – though I do call your attention to the fact that other non-elites like Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams and Mark Rypien have also won that award – and threw for 11 TDs and no INTs during the postseason, leading the Ravens past the Colts, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers. So why in the world don’t I consider him elite?!

It takes more than 4 spectacular postseason games to make you elite. “But it’s the playoffs,” you might say. “They’re the most important games.” Not so. If you don’t play well in the regular season, you generally don’t make the playoffs. Based on his playoff numbers, he should have been able to throw for 44 touchdowns during the regular season. He threw just 22. He played two terrible games against the Steelers when Big Ben wasn’t even playing. The only truly elite game he played during the 2012 regular season was in Week 1 against the Bengals – you could make an argument for the Raiders game, but it’s the Raiders, they don’t count.

So Matt Ryan had one non-elite game in 2012, Joe Flacco has one actually-elite game in 2012. It’s not even close right now, in my opinion. That doesn’t mean that Flacco couldn’t rip off a season for the ages in 2013. If he does so, I’ll concede that he is an elite quarterback. But that won’t mean that he was elite before 2013 began. He’s just not there yet. Joe Montana wasn’t elite yet when he won his first Super Bowl MVP in 1982. So stop rushing the process Flacco Faithful.

2013 Offseason Update, Week 4

Andy Reid got Kansas City a quarterback. Now he has to decide what to
do with the team's top overall draft pick. Photo credit to CBS Sports.

Every Monday during the offseason, I will be recapping some of the biggest stories of the previous week that I did not cover individually. So let’s get to last week’s news.

QB Contracts

The biggest news out of the offseason’s fourth week was definitely quarterback contracts. Joe Flacco got a huge deal in Baltimore that local fans can only hope doesn’t rock the boat. Meanwhile, up north, Tom Brady reworked his contract to help clear cap space for the Patriots and ensure he will be in Foxboro through 2017.

I don’t have the full, year-by-year breakdown of Flacco’s contract, but I can tell you that in at least two of the next six seasons, Joe Flacco will make more than Tom Brady will in any single year of his five year contract, with his highest-paying year to come in 2017 when he is scheduled to make $15 million.

Now, if Baltimore does crash and burn because of Flacco’s new contract, Ravens fans can rest assured that it won’t happen in the first year of his contract. He will count for less than $7 million against the cap in 2013. Unfortunately, this means that he will be getting big numbers in the last three or four years of his contract and that could be crushing.

New England got the better deal as far as I’m concerned. Yes, Tom Brady’s whole contract is guaranteed money, which is unheard of. But to have a quarterback of his caliber and never have a year in which he is due more than $15 million is extremely rare, too.

Alex Smith Trade

Thought Joe Flacco and Tom Brady stole the spotlight, another huge story is the Alex Smith trade to Kansas City. The 49ers got a 15^th pick for the upcoming draft and a conditional pick in the 2014 draft. Andy Reid got Kansas City a quarterback for the first time since Trent Green.

Over five and a half seasons with Trent Green as their starting quarterback, the Chiefs compiled an average 48-40 record, including three winning seasons and two playoff appearances, of which they have had only one of each since.

The difference is that in Green’s first couple seasons in Kansas City, the Chiefs had little talent surrounding him. This year, they had several Pro Bowlers and way too much talent to be winning only two games. This ultimately was the reason Romeo Crennel was fired.

With Alex Smith, the Chiefs instantly become a wild-card contender, especially with a first overall draft pick and options for how to use it.

Darrelle Revis Trade Talk Picks Up Steam

About a week ago, reports came out of New York that the Jets might try to trade cornerback Darrelle Revis, who is coming off an ACL injury. So far, nothing I have read is anything more than speculation.

Still, it’s an interesting idea that the Jets could possibly trade away their most recognized current player, especially when nobody knows just how healthy he is, or even will be in 2013. But then, it is the Jets so anything is not only possibly, but likely.

Jeff Saturday a Colt Once More

No, Saturday will not suit up for Indianapolis, at least not on the field. Just before the Pro Bowl, he announced his intention to retire after this season, and he will do so. But he will go through the process many other great NFL players have done by signing a one-day contract and donning the Colts’ uniform one last time, retiring as a member of the team he spent almost all of his career with. The date for the official announcement has not yet been set.

Last week I wrote about the offseason needs of all 16 AFC teams, on division per day. Tomorrow I will start doing the same for the NFC, so be sure to check back daily.

If you would like to hear my thoughts on any other offseason news from the past week, feel free to contact me via my blog’s Facebook page or my Twitter account, @cpuffnfl.

Super Bowl XLVII Afterword: 49ers vs Ravens

Jim Harbaugh may have had a legitimate gripe over a missed
holding call late in the 4th quarter, but it fell on deaf ears.
Photo credit to Times-Standard.

Saturday, I gave the offensive edge in this game to San Francisco, I labeled the coaching edge as ‘even,’ and I gave Baltimore the edge in both defense and special teams. A lot of people who commented on that write-up must have lost some serious coin yesterday.

They said the 49ers had the best three linebackers in the NFL, but I didn’t see them pressuring Flacco or containing Dennis Pitta or keeping Ray Rice from breaking out on screens. One even said Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson is the best safety tandem in the league. Funny how they looked like Denver on Jacoby Jones’s long touchdown reception late in the second quarter.

Via Madden, I predicted the 49ers to win. I had been leaning to San Francisco for most of the week and then toward Baltimore as I finished preparing to write my preview, so I have no idea who I would have picked without using Madden.

The first half of the game was pretty lame. By that, I just mean that we haven’t had a blowout Super Bowl in quite a while and I’m hoping we’ll never have one again. The past several years have been great, so when the Ravens went up 21-3, and then led 28-6 after a second-half kickoff return touchdown, I would have been ready to turn the TV off if I were an average fan.

As it was, the power outage in the Superdome a couple minutes later was the most exciting thing that had happened up to that point.

The power outage seemed to allow San Francisco to regroup, because during a 4:10 period shortly after the outage, the 49ers scored 17 points. But the Ravens can’t blame the stadium malfunction for letting San Francisco back in the game. The first play once the game resumed was a failed 3^rd & 13 attempt, which forced the 49ers to punt. The Ravens didn’t have to let the power outage affect the game.

San Francisco came all the way back, but failed on a two-point conversion try that would have tied the game. If they had made it, they never would have had to try for the touchdown on their final possession, a field goal could have tied the game and sent it to overtime.

Instead, a failed 4^th & goal effectively ended the game. Baltimore won it’s second Lombardi Trophy while handing San Francisco their first loss on the league’s biggest stage.

I am still not ready to jump on the Joe Flacco “elite” bandwagon – I’ll explain on The All-Sports Crew on Wednesday – but he had a phenomenal postseason. Despite only leading two field-goal drives in the second half, he added three touchdowns and no turnovers to his tally, bringing his postseason total to 11 touchdowns and no interceptions and earning Super Bowl MVP in the process. Not bad for four games considering his only threw 22 touchdowns in 16 regular season games.

I give a lot of credit to John Harbaugh. I’ve felt for a long time that Jim is the better head coach, but we saw some things on special teams that we never would have seen in a Super Bowl without John trying them. They failed by just two yards on a fake field goal in the first half but they ran a kick back and the way they took the safety late in the game was genius. Defense is the one thing that could keep the Ravens from getting back here soon.

The 49ers, meanwhile, will definitely be back. They have a terrific team and they aren’t likely to lose too many key players. What they may lose, they can get back through the draft, especially since they ought to get a decent pick for Alex Smith.

Thanks for reading my blog all season. I’ve enjoyed maintaining it and I will make some changes to make it even better in 2013. To stay updated on my blog as new posts are published throughout the offseason, ‘like’ my blog’s Facebook page and follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

Super Bowl XLVII: Media Day

Super Bowl Sunday Countdown: 3 Days

Ray Lewis will play his final NFL game on Sunday. A win would give him
a second Super Bowl ring and send him out on top.
Photo credit to NFL.com.

Tuesday was Media Day at the Superdome. For the second year, the NFL allowed fans to come in, for a fee, to watch the action quietly from a section of the stands.

On Media Day, every player and coach is made available for about an hour to answer questions from the media. There are so many players and coaches involved in this game, so here are just a few of the highlights.

Randy Moss

I had a good time listening to Randy Moss talk. I respectfully disagree with his statement that he is the greatest receiver of all time, but I thoroughly enjoyed his response to a Manti Te’o related question: “ If I did ever have an imaginary girlfriend, I never told anybody about it.”

Ray Lewis

Of course, the allegation that he used deer antler spray to aid his recovery from a triceps injury this season came out on Tuesday during media day. He sidestepped questions about it, saying it was a two-year-old story being rehashed. I wonder why nobody has written anything about that? Interestingly enough, asked a similar question to one asked of Randy Moss, Lewis said he “may have been catfished once or twice.”

Joe Flacco

On Monday, a story I read on NFL.com said Flacco’s father called the Baltimore quarterback “dull.” Asked if he is dull, Flacco said, “I don’t know if I would say I’m dull, but I’m probably close to it.”

Jim Harbaugh

Of course plenty of questions were asked about the Harbaugh brothers. In fact, one of the 49ers offensive linemen, Joe Staley, was asked a serious of questions concerning the brothers, including which is more handsome and dresses better. Jim took a Shakespearean approach to answering one question about the matchup. The quote ended with, “For he who sheds his blood with me today shall be my brother.” I immediately recognized it as a quote from Shakespeare – though I did have to check on which work it was from, it was Henry V – but it was pretty cool to have someone answer a Media Day question in that manner.

Chris Culliver

I’ll end with this bit. Culliver was asked whether he would accept an openly gay football player in the 49ers locker room. I respect his courage to speak his mind when his opinion is not at all politically correct, but that respect is significantly lessened by the way he in which he spoke his opinion, saying, “We don’t have any gay guys on the team. They gotta get up outta here if they do. Can’t be with that sweet stuff.”

The 49ers quickly released a statement saying that Culliver’s words do not express the ideals of the franchise and Culliver later apologized, saying, “The derogatory comments I made yesterday were a reflection of my thoughts in my head, but they are not how I feel. It has taken me seeing them in print to realize that they are hurtful and ugly. … I apologize to those who I have hurt and offended and I pledge to learn and grow from this experience.”

Tomorrow I will publish two posts, one about the 49ers’ history in the Super Bowl and one about the Ravens’. Saturday I will preview Super Bowl XLVII and my official prediction will by published by noon on Sunday.

To stay updated on new posts as they are published, ‘like’ my blog’s Facebook page and follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

Super Bowl XLVII: Baltimore Ravens

Super Bowl Sunday Countdown: 4 Days

In Ray Lewis's final game, the Ravens look to win their second Lombardi Trophy
and hand the 49ers their first Super Bowl loss. Photo credit to NFL Network.

It would be too easy to just copy what I wrote yesterday about the 49ers and apply it to the Ravens. It would be easy to say that this was a two-year, a three-year, a five-year process that Baltimore’s franchise has worked through to this point. After all, they went to the AFC Championship last season and they are the only team in the NFL that has made the postseason each of the past five years.

But it is for that very reason that I say it has not been a five years process. Something had to have happened to get over the hump, to take this team to that next level that has eluded them since John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco came to Baltimore.

The Ravens, in my mind, are Ray Lewis’s team without a doubt. The most faithful Ravens fans who think they know their team inside and out while say that it wasn’t just Ray who sparked this postseason run. Remember that Bernard Pollard also returned from injury in that wild-card game against the Colts.

But I still point to the teams they played during the Regular Season. Ray Lewis played in Baltimore’s first six games, in which they went 5-1. They should have gone 6-0 – yes, I’m still bitter against the replacement refs for that Week 2 game, even though I didn’t really have much interested invested in it.

The first week that Lewis did not play, the Ravens got pummeled by the Texans, 43-13. They had a bye week and then won four straight, but the only semi-impressive win was their 55-20 victory over Oakland, which was a statement made by their offense. It wasn’t an impressive display by their defense considering nobody else scored 20 against them during that winning streak.

Then they lost four of their last five. Two, and maybe three, of those games were matchups they should have won. Not having Ray Lewis made it very difficult for Baltimore to do what they needed on defense. Not only is Ray Lewis an emotional leader, he is still one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL on a physical level.

Baltimore has given up fewer than two touchdowns in five of Ray Lewis’s nine games played this season. Without Ray, they’ve achieved that feat three times in ten games, and in one of those games they still gave up five field goals.

I look forward to finding out what the Ravens look like without Ray Lewis next season. My outlook isn’t as bright as many Ravens fans’ outlooks. But one thing is for sure, with Ray Lewis in at middle linebacker, this team has a great shot at winning the Super Bowl on Sunday.

It certainly doesn’t hurt that Joe Flacco has found his mojo this postseason. Eight touchdown passes and no interceptions over three games is always a formula for success.

Tomorrow I will recap some of the things that caught my attention during Media Day – not the news of Ray Lewis possibly using Deer Antler Spray; I’ll wait for more info to come out before I address that. Stay tuned all week, as I’ll have a new post every day and my official prediction on Sunday by noon. For links to blog posts as they’re published, ‘like’ my blog’s Facebook page and follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

First Impressions: Super Bowl XLVII Matchup

Jim (49ers) & John (Ravens) will lead their teams against each other for the
second time in their careers, this time with a Lombardi Trophy on the line.
Photo credit to ESPN First Take (Facebook).

Over the next three days, I will look back at the 2012 postseason, one round at a time, as a general recap to put a close on yet another fantastic season. Today, however, I want to take the time to give my first thoughts on the upcoming Super Bowl.

The Ravens and 49ers have played four times since Baltimore got their new franchise. San Francisco won the first meeting but Baltimore has won all three since, including last season on Thanksgiving in the first matchup between the Harbaugh brothers.

Despite a pretty low score, just a 16-6 victory, Baltimore pretty clearly was the better team on both sides of the ball.

What has changed since 2011?

The 49ers are pretty similar on defense. They’re still pretty young overall, which means the extra year of experience will pay off a fair amount. On offense, the obvious change is the switch at quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. His rapport with Michael Crabtree and Randy Moss, another acquisition since last season, will make the 49ers look very different against the Ravens than they did in 2011.

On the Baltimore side, Joe Flacco has been hot all postseason. 8 TDs and no interceptions speak for itself. The other quarterbacks who have had similar numbers in a given postseason have all not only won the Super Bowl but been named MVP in it. Torrey Smith is becoming a deep threat, which is important considering the Ravens only attempted one deep pass in last year’s matchup. Smith is quickly inserting himself with guys like Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green as the league’s top possession receivers.

Baltimore’s defense is pretty similar to last year’s group, and everyone has remained healthy throughout the postseason, so there will be no easy pickings for Kaepernick.

Will I have a rooting interest?

I have to. I always do for the Super Bowl. Even if I really don’t care, I always pick a team to root for, for two reasons. First, it makes the game more fun for me. During the regular season I don’t mind just watching a game for the fun of it. Even during the playoffs I can do that. But I want to get excited during the Super Bowl, not just sit there as an emotionless observer.

My other reason for having a rooting interest is for my Madden prediction game, which I’ll explain in my Super Bowl XLVII preview the morning of the game.

So which team will I be rooting for? This is one of the few Super Bowls I can remember where I really don’t care which team wins; I don’t like either but I also don’t dislike either. However, because I’m from Maryland and will have to deal with poor attitudes from Ravens fans if they lose, I will be rooting for Baltimore.

Just a note for the heck of it, keep in mind that if Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh will retain sole possession of the record for most Super Bowl victories. San Francisco would tie them with a win.

The Harbowl

From what I’ve been able to gather, John and Jim Harbaugh never faced each other as coaches before last Thanksgiving.

John started out coaching running backs and linebackers at Western Michigan in the mid-80s and then, after a couple stops elsewhere, took a job as special teams coordinator at the University of Cincinnati, holding that position for eight years. His first NFL experience was in the same position with the Philadelphia Eagles, a job he kept from 1998 until 2007 when he became the defensive secondary coach with the Eagles. He made the jump right from that position to Ravens head coach.

Jim started his coaching career earlier than you would expect. During his final eight seasons as a quarterback in the NFL, beginning when he moved from Chicago to Indianapolis, he was an unpaid assistant coach under his dad, Jack Harbaugh, at Western Kentucky University. When his playing career ended, he became the quarterbacks coach with the Oakland Raiders for two seasons before taking a head coaching position with the University of San Diego. He held that job for three years and his position as head coach at Stanford for four. 2011 was his first season as the head coach with San Francisco.

Though it felt like a lot of hype was placed on their Thanksgiving matchup last season, it was nothing compared to the hype of what could have been during the postseason. Both John and Jim led their teams to their conference championship games, only to fall to the Patriots and Giants respectively, both due to poor late-game execution.

This year, they led their teams back to the AFC and NFC Championship games, and this time they both won. A lot will be made of their matchup over the next two weeks. I wanted to get mine out of the way. So congratulations to the two brothers, and to their parents, Jack and Jackie, on a fantastic season that will end in New Orleans.

I can’t even begin to imagine what it will be like for their family in the days following the game. There is nothing to base it on. The Manning brothers have never made this matchup happen, and I can’t think of many other brothers who have had the opportunity (Tiki and Ronde Barber both play(ed) in the NFC).

AFC Championship Afterword: Patriots vs Ravens

Another year, another case of Bradying. Brady made some atypical poor decisions
late in the game and was as much to blame as anyone else for their loss.
Photo credit to The Boston Globe.

For a while, neither team really deserved to win this game. The Ravens weren’t playing all that well in the first half and the Patriots, Wes Welker in particular, couldn’t catch to save their lives.

Joe Flacco improved to 8 touchdowns and no interceptions this postseason with another solid outing. He had a few poor throws, but every quarterback does so you won’t see me hassling him over this game. I can’t really think of many, if any, instances where his receivers had to bail him out. He made good throws, they made good grabs, and by the end of the game, the Ravens were clearly the better team.

As I was previewing this game, I talked about a lot of stuff on my radio show, but I focused on previous stats when I previewed the game on my blog. I brought up that Joe Flacco always seems to show up against the Patriots, that there is only one team he plays better against. Low and behold, he had a pretty terrific game yesterday.

And what about Tom Brady? I mentioned that he has played well enough against the Ravens but that he has below average numbers in Conference Championship games. He completed 53% of his passes, threw one touchdown and two interceptions, though to his credit the first one wasn’t entirely his fault.

New England’s predictable passing attack haunted them badly. When your quarterback is Tom Brady and your entire receiving corps only averages about 11 yards per catch, that’s a sign of a pretty conservative passing attack.

The Patriots run this offense often, but when they play good teams they usually switch it up more, it’s what it takes for them to get ‘over the hump’ to beat the NFL’s better teams. They didn’t do so yesterday and I feel it’s a big part of why they lost by two touchdowns.

Wes Welker had eight receptions despite having more drops than I could keep track of, so he is still Tom Brady’s favorite target at receiver. However, when you have as many bad drops as he had yesterday, you can expect plenty of questions about his future with the team.

Baltimore advances to their franchise’s second Super Bowl and the fourth appearance for the city. The Ravens won their last Super Bowl matchup against the Giants in January 2001. The Colts went 1-1 before moving their franchise to Indianapolis.

Check back with my blog daily over the next two weeks, especially next week when the focus will be fully on Super Bowl XLVII. For updates on when new blog posts are published, ‘like’ my page on Facebook and follow me on Twitter @cpuffnfl.

AFC Championship Preview: Patriots vs Ravens

Sunday, January 20, 2013

6:30pm – CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

In a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, the Patriots make their
franchise's ninth appearance while the Ravens make their fourth.
The Patriots won last year, 23-20.

Ravens fans are clearly confident in their defense, and they have good reason to be. As far as I’m concerned, Baltimore’s defense matches up with New England’s offense just as well as it did earlier this season and in last year’s AFC Championship.

Joe Flacco, for as much as I give him a lot of grief, always shows up against New England. Despite a 1-2 record against them in his career, he has a Passer Rating of 103.0 in those games. The only team he’s faced multiple times and has a better rating against is the Miami Dolphins.

In those three starts against New England, Flacco has 931, 7 touchdown passes and just 2 interceptions. I’ll buy him putting up another big game this weekend, especially with how well Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith have been playing lately.

Tom Brady, on the other hand, has 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in five career starts against Baltimore. In addition, the conference championship round is by far his worst of the postseason. He may be 5-1 in these games, but he’s thrown 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on his way to just a 78.4 passer rating in the AFC Championship.

The more I think about this pick, the less nervous I am about it. I fully understand why New England is such a big favorite in this game, and I won’t be shocked if they win. But I think Baltimore has all the tools to go into New England and beat the Patriots, just like they beat them in Baltimore earlier this season.

Puff’s Pick:

Baltimore Ravens – 20

New England Patriots – 17

MVP: Torrey Smith


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