2013 Offseason Needs: NFC North

I began going through the NFL division-by-division last week, writing about what each team needs to address this offseason. I have covered the bases in all four AFC divisions, and yesterday I covered the NFC East, so today I move on to the NFC North.

I won’t pretend to know every detail of what each team needs, but am open to comments from those who may know better what their teams need.

Chicago Bears

Marc Trestman is a CFL coach in the NFL. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to a completely different game. It will also be interesting to see what twists he brings to the game plan that will catch other teams off guard.

As usual, the Bears biggest problem on offense is the line. The Redskins had the same problem for years but finally seemed to have it fixed in 2012. The Bears need to fix theirs for 2013, or Marc Trestman’s team will look rather similar to Lovie Smith’s.

It’s hard to find what they really need on defense, because their defense is so good. But they don’t have very much depth to an aging secondary, specifically at corner.

Detroit Lions

The Lions broke out in 2011 as one of the NFL’s most dangerous teams. Matt Stafford was healthy for the whole season, Calvin Johnson tore it up in the end zone, and nobody wanted to play them. Then the offseason came, and with it off-the-field issues. They’ll need to really clean up their act this season to keep the focus on football and getting back to their 2011 form in 2013.

The Lions will put a lot of attention on keeping Cliff Avril. They’ve already lost one good defensive end and really can’t get away with losing another if they want to be competitive next season.

Titus Young is gone, and it’s for the best. However, that loss does mean the Lions don’t have a real second receiver behind Megatron. They need depth at that position.

Defense is also an area that must be addressed. The Lions have a decent line if they can keep Avril, but their linebacker corps and secondary are not very good.

Green Bay Packers

Greg Jennings is a free agent. As we’ve said for years, though, the Packers have unrealistic depth at receiver, so I’m not expecting Jennings to return in 2013.

Defense is the area of concern for the Packers, as it has been since their Super Bowl year. Despite having a lot of playmakers and big names on defense, they give up a lot of yards. It might be time to trade one or two of their big names for some draft picks, because I’m less and less convinced every season that these guys know how to play together.

Minnesota Vikings

The only ray of sunshine I see for the Vikings right now is Adrian Peterson.

Christian Ponder is an okay quarterback, but he will have to do a lot of improving this offseason if he is going to help take this team back to the playoffs, especially if the Vikings don’t keep Percy Harvin. They don’t have much other talent at receiver. As good as Adrian Peterson is, if the Vikings have no passing game, he won’t carry them far.

Minnesota also needs to put a lot of work into their defense. Their secondary is okay but rarely impressed me as anything more than mediocre. Linebacker is a clear area of concern and they need to pick up a good interior lineman.

Tomorrow I will cover the NFC South’s offseason needs, team-by-team. Keep up with new posts as I publish them by ‘liking’ my Facebook page and by following me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

2012 Season in Review, Last 8 Weeks

The tandem of rookies RG3 (10) and Alfred Morris (46) is the
basis of everything the Redskins do on offense.
Photo credit to NY Daily News.

Yesterday, I reviewed the first nine weeks of the regular season. So today, naturally, I am looking back at the second half of the regular season, which was very different for many teams and all too similar for others. My predictions for this weekend will come tonight on The All-Sports Crew’s blog and in each of my Wild-Card previews, which will start coming out tomorrow.

These are the NFL standings for the final 8 weeks of the regular season:

AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West
1. NE (7-1)	1. CIN (5-3)	1. IND (6-2)	1. DEN (8-0)
T-2. MIA (3-5)	2. BAL (4-4)	2. HOU (5-3)	2. SD (3-5)
T-2. NYJ (3-5)	3. CLE (3-4)	3. TEN (3-4)	T-3. OAK (1-7)
T-2. BUF (3-5)	4. PIT (3-5)	4. JAC (1-7)	T-3. KC (1-7)
NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
1. WAS (7-0)	T-1. GB (5-2)	T-1. ATL (5-3)	1. SEA (6-1)
2. DAL (5-3)	T-1. MIN (5-2)	T-1. CAR (5-3)	2. SF (5-2-1)
3. NYG (3-4)	3. CHI (3-5)	3. NO (4-4)	3. StL (4-3-1)
4. PHI (1-7)	4. DET (0-8)	4. TB (3-5)	4. ARI (1-6)

Of course the talk of the NFL in the second half of the season was the Redskins entering their bye week 3-6, voting Robert Griffin III a captain when they returned, and then going on to win their final 7 games to clinch the NFC East for the first time since 1999. Hidden in the shadow was the Colts’ run to nearly take back the AFC South and Cincinnati doing the same in the AFC North.

AFC East

The Bills had a decent offense, but their defense was atrocious. Ryan Tannehill did not carry his momentum into the second half of the season and the Jets were at the mercy of Mark Sanchez. The Patriots didn’t need to win 7 of their last 8 to run away with this division, but they did and now hold the AFC’s #2 seed.

AFC North

Baltimore seemed hot in the second half of the season, winning their first three games. They’ve dropped 4 of 5 now and only a win against the reeling Giants kept the Bengals from claiming the division. An injury to Ben Roethlisberger hurt Pittsburgh more than some people want to admit.

AFC South

Houston struggled late and Indy didn’t, allowing the Colts to come within a Week 15 loss in Houston of winning the AFC South. Jacksonville repeated their first-half record and the Titans struggled despite Chris Johnson getting into a groove and Jake Locker putting up big numbers in several games.

AFC West

The Broncos had an easy schedule but never let an opponent give them a serious scare as they rolled through the competition. The question for them is whether the lack of competition will hurt them in the postseason. San Diego only had the second best record during the second half because their competition was Oakland and Kansas City.

NFC East

The Giants suffered their typical late-season collapse and for once there was a team there to take advantage. In fact, there were two teams. The Redskins, as I mentioned, never lost in the second half of the season. The Cowboys made a late run at a division title but came up short in Week 17 against Washington. Philly has won just one game since the Phillies last victory and Andy Reid was fired the day after the regular season ended.

NFC North

Green Bay and Minnesota went neck-and-neck for the NFC North title and Green Bay held off the Vikings, despite losing to them in Week 17. Chicago, as I said early, was a product of an easy schedule. They lost to the good teams they faced in the second half.

NFC South

Carolina, as they did last year, picked it up in the second half. The hole was too deep for them, but they had the same record as the Falcons. If they can put things together for a full season, 2013 could be a scary year in the NFC South.

NFC West

Seattle scored over 170 points in their final four games – 150 points between Weeks 14, 15 and 16. They make fans of every other team nervous. The only thing that gives other teams’ fans a little relief is that they won’t be able to host a playoff game unless they play the Vikings in the NFC Championship. San Francisco held them off the division championship by virtue of a tie against the Rams.

2012 Season in Review, First 9 Weeks

The 'Monday Night Fiasco' finally put an end to the NFL's
replacement officials. Photo credit to CBS Chicago.

Happy New Year, everyone! To kick off 2013, I am reviewing the 2012 regular season. Today I will cover the first nine weeks and tomorrow I will review the last eight weeks of the season. My predictions for this weekend will come Wednesday on The All-Sports Crew’s blog and in each of my Wild-Card previews, which will start coming out Thursday.

Heading into Week 10, these were the standings in the NFL:

AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West
1. NE (5-3)	1. BAL (6-2)	1. HOU (7-1)	1. DEN (5-3)
2. MIA (4-4)	2. PIT (5-3)	2. IND (5-3)	2. SD (4-4)
T-3. NYJ (3-5)	3. CIN (3-5)	3. TEN (3-6)	3. OAK (3-5)
T-3. BUF (3-5)	4. CLE (2-7)	4. JAC (1-7)	4. KC (1-7)
NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
1. NYG (6-3)	1. CHI (7-1)	1. ATL (8-0)	1. SF (6-2)
T-2. DAL (3-5)	2. GB (6-3)	2. TB (4-4)	2. SEA (5-4)
T-2. PHI (3-5)	3. MIN (5-4)	3. NO (3-5)	3. ARI (4-5)
4. WAS (3-6)	4. DET (4-4)	4. CAR (2-6)	4. StL (3-5)

It seemed clear at the time that Atlanta and Houston were a close one-two in the NFL. Houston had picked up right where they left off when Matt Schaub got hurt in 2011 and the Falcons were flat-out winning, even if some games were closer than they should have been.

AFC East

The Patriots had suffered a few tough losses, and they didn’t have a feel of consistency to them. They seemed to be in line to win the division, but mostly on the merit of everyone else in the division being bad. Down in Miami, Ryan Tannehill was turning heads with pretty rapid improvement through the first several weeks.

AFC North

Baltimore kicked off the season with a big win over Cincinnati in which they showcased a very efficient hurry-up offense. Things settled down for them after that game but they kept control of the division early. Cincinnati started the season slow but Andy Dalton and A.J. Green were starting to make their offense look like a serious contender.

AFC South

Houston, as I mentioned, was considered one of the league’s best teams. Losing Brian Cushing seemed not to hurt as much as we thought it would, thanks mostly to J.J. Watt’s phenomenal play. Indianapolis, meanwhile, was in the middle of a CHUCKSTRONG campaign to win games for Coach Pagano, who was away from the team receiving treatment for leukemia.

AFC West

San Diego controlled the division early on, but a memorable second-half collapse handed the division on a silver platter to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, allowing Denver to lead the division with the hard part of their schedule completely out of the way.

NFC East

The Giants struggled in their season opener against Dallas, becoming the first defending Super Bowl champs to lose the NFL Kickoff Game. Dallas cooled off after that game and New York caught fire, winning six of their next eight.

NFC North

Chicago was rolling through the first half of their schedule, mostly due to a weak schedule. Their only loss was to Green Bay and they hadn’t played another good opponent otherwise. The Packers, meanwhile, were hot and cold early one but seemed to be on the rise. The Vikings were the surprise of the NFL. Adrian Peterson hadn’t been noticed as much as Christian Ponder as the second-year quarterback was playing excellent ball in the early part of the season.

NFC South

Atlanta was running away with the division and was the only undefeated team left after Week 9. Tampa Bay seemed to be picking things up and a young man named Doug Martin seemed to be inserting his name in Rookie of the Year discussions while Josh Freeman was throwing for 300+ yards seemingly every game. New Orleans was suffering the effects of having their head coach, and their interim head coach, on top of a few players, suspended.

NFC West

The 49ers had suffered a few letdowns but still seemed to be a close second to the Falcons in the conference. Seattle seemed more of a pretender than anything with a home win over New England in a game when Tom Brady played awful and of course the infamous ‘Monday Night Fiasco’ against Green Bay.

Replacement Refs

The first three weeks were dominated by talk of how poor a job the replacement officials were doing. We may have been a little too hard on them and not hard enough on the league for not getting a deal done with the officials’ union, but it was pretty bad and it all culminated on that Monday Night game between Seattle and Green Bay. Thankfully the madness ended within a couple days of that game and we the real refs were back from Week 4 on.

Bounty Scandal

The New Orleans Saints had to deal with a lot with the NFL’s crackdown on their bounty system, which we still don’t really seem to have concrete evidence of. They lost the first several games of the season, including an overtime loss to Kansas City, who never led during regulation of any game in the first half of the season.

Rookie Quarterbacks

With five rookies starting under center in Week 1, an NFL record was set. Never had so many rookies been named the starter of their team to kick off a season. Robert Griffin III, the 2011 Heisman Trophy Winner, was starting in Washington and quickly made the Redskins into one of the best rushing teams and one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Andrew Luck was not very efficient, but always seemed to come through in the clutch in Indy. Russell Wilson pissed a lot of people off against Green Bay on Monday Night when he threw the winning interception for Seattle. Ryan Tannehill showed improvement early in the season for Miami and Brandon Weeden was doing the same in Cleveland.

2012 Week 17 Preview: Vikings vs Packers

Brett Favre's time in Minnesota ignited a lot of dislike for the
Vikings in Packers Nation. Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

This is the only game this weekend, other than the Redskins/Cowboys game (which I will preview tomorrow), that features a team in a win-and-in situation.

The Minnesota Vikings are at home for a 4:25 p.m. kickoff against the Green Bay Packers in a game that will seal their playoff fate. If the Vikings lose, it would take a miracle and a half to get them in the playoffs. A win clinches them a spot and knocks Chicago, New York, and the loser of the Skins/Cowboys game out of the playoff picture.

Adrian Peterson has been phenomenal all season. A week ago, I predicted that he would not break the all-time single-season rushing record because he had to play Houston and Green Bay. He didn’t top 100 yards against Houston, and it looks like I may have been right about him not breaking the record. But he is still my top choice for MVP if the Vikings get into the playoffs.

Side note: AP is still my top choice if the Vikings miss the playoffs, but the NFL rarely, if ever, awards the MVP to a player on a team that misses the playoffs.

Despite Peterson only gaining 86 yards, the Minnesota defense did pretty well for itself, holding the Texans to just six points in Reliant Stadium. Christian Ponder has yet to top 200 passing yards in a game since the team’s Week 11 bye – he had six such games in the first ten weeks of the season.

On Green Bay’s side, they have had three different leading rushers in the past four weeks and Aaron Rodgers has had only one game since their Week 10 bye in which he didn’t pass for at least 200 yards. He also only had one sub-200 game in the first nine weeks.

The Vikings are on a 3-game winning streak, also beating the Bears and Rams in the past three weeks. Green Bay’s winning streak is slightly longer at four games, but it includes a 23-14 Week 13 win over Minnesota and they are coming off a 55-7 romp at home against Tennessee last Sunday.

Remember what I said about how much Minnesota is playing for on Sunday? Well, don’t expect Green Bay to just let them in. Green Bay can lock up a first-round bye with a win over their NFC North rival.

The biggest question for me is how set Minnesota is on getting the rushing record for Adrian Peterson. He needs 209 yards to break the record. He gained 210 in that earlier loss to Green Bay. Christian Ponder said earlier this week that he’s sure AP is more concerned with getting the win, which I’m sure is mostly true. But Peterson did say a day or two ago that he still plans on breaking that record.

Ultimately, I just don’t think there is much the Vikings can do to slow down a markedly better Packers team that isn’t resting anyone and has really gotten things rolling after a 38-10 loss to New York in Week 12, their only one since that Week 5 loss in Indianapolis.

Puff’s Pick: Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings

Monday Night Football Afterword: Bears vs Lions

Monday's matchup was the 110th MNF game
televised by ESPN.

In a rehashing of the oldest rivalry in the National Football League, the Lions got crushed by the Bears. Okay, so they didn’t exactly get crushed, but anyone who watched any of the game knows that the 13-7 victory for the Bears was no escape either.

The Lions scored a late touchdown to avoid being shut out, but they played a terrible game. The Lions failed multiple times to get Calvin Johnson open, and the one time he did break wide open, early in the game, he dropped a well-placed pass by Stafford.

There were seven possessions inside the red zone between the two teams. Only two resulted in points. The Bears had enough scoring to make up for their two failed red zone attempts, but the Lions started 0/3 inside the red zone before their meaningless late touchdown. They fumbled just inside the 20 late in the second quarter, then fumbled again one yard out of the end zone in the third quarter. The third red zone turnover for the Lions was an interception three yards out.

So while the game certainly was not a blow out, I would still say that ‘crushed’ is a fair description of the Lions after last night. They had a few solid drives that should have resulted in some sort of points, but they repeatedly got crushed near the goal line.

Unfortunately, due to an outside obligation, I was unable to see the entire game. I watched the early portion of the game and a fair amount of the fourth quarter. From replays and recaps I have seen and read, I have gathered that it was a statement game for the Bears. However, I have to ask what explanation there is for the Lions driving so effectively leading up to those turnovers. The Lions could have easily won this game with just one or two of those turnovers not happening.

Once again, I still hesitate to put my trust in the Bears. I have no doubt they will win the NFC North, but once they get to the postseason I have a very difficult time believing this is the team to represent the NFC in New Orleans. Don’t get me wrong; this is a good team with some terrific players. But they haven’t played against a really good team yet. Even their loss came to a Packers team that had not gelled yet.

Chicago’s second half is a little more difficult. After two more games that should be easy wins – against Carolina and Tennessee – the Bears host Houston and then visit Candlestick. A win in San Francisco would give me a big confidence boost in them. But they also have two games against a competitive Minnesota team, matchups with defensive juggernauts Seattle and Arizona, and a home game against a Green Bay team that looks much better than they had during the first few weeks of the season.

Detroit, meanwhile, I think can be fairly dropped from serious postseason discussion. The Lions have lost Nate Burleson, possibly for the rest of the season, to a broken leg. Considering they have failed to come up with a solid game plan that gets the ball in Calvin Johnson’s hands, Stafford is about out of options. There is also talk that Jahvid Best may have played his last game because no doctor wants to sign off on him playing again after his recent concussion. Lions fans should be very worried about the very real possibility of their team returning to the cellar of the NFL. As long as Stafford is around, don’t expect another 0-16 season, but I could see some seasons with only three to six wins in the near future without some major offseason changes.