2014 NFC Championship Preview: Seahawks vs 49ers

Cory Puffett

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

January 19 – 6:30pm (FOX)

Last week I talked about how similar the Panthers and 49ers are. Well the Seahawks are very similar to both, but they are better in many ways.

Russell Wilson is better than Colin Kaepernick. His accuracy is more consistent and even though he may be just a step slower than Colin, he typically does a better job of keeping his eyes up field in case someone gets open before he crosses the LOS.

Marshawn Lynch is slightly better than Frank Gore. They both read their blocks similarly but Beast Mode breaks more tackles and fatigues less quickly than Gore. Lynch is also a better receiver, which is saying something since he isn’t known for catching passes out of the backfield.

The only thing Seattle has to worry about offensively is whether Percy Harvin is healthy, and honestly that isn’t a huge concern. He didn’t practice Wednesday and may not be available after suffering a concussion against New Orleans, but Seattle is used to playing without him. In some ways, having him in may just disrupt their timing on offense.

Defensively the two teams have different styles. Seattle is good against the run but their strength is of course their Legion of Boom going against the pass. Seattle tied Philadelphia for drawing the most defensive pass interference penalties with 13 of them this season. But when you’re shutting down an opposing aerial assault you can afford to be penalized occasionally.

San Francisco is definitely stronger against the run than they are against the pass, but they only give up six fewer rushing yards per game than Seattle does.

Take into consideration that Seattle gains more total yards per game than San Francisco and gives up fewer total yards per game, then add in the home field advantage of CenturyLink Field, and it doesn’t look so good for San Francisco.

This is the 49ers’ third straight NFC title game appearance. Jim Harbaugh is the first coach in NFL history to make it this far in each of his first three seasons as a head coach.

Harbaugh has plenty of history with Seattle head coach Pete Carroll. He faced Coach Carroll as a quarterback with the Indianapolis Colts, then faced him as Stanford’s head coach while Carroll was at USC. Now, since entering the NFL, Harbaugh has faced Carroll six times.

San Francisco is 4-2 in those six meetings, unbeaten at home and a narrow 19-17 victory in Seattle in December 2011.

But that was prior to the Legion of Boom, before Russell Wilson. In December 2012 the 49ers were crushed 42-13 in Seattle. Things were even worse this past September when, in Week 2, the 49ers fell 29-3 in CenturyLink on Sunday Night Football.

The defense played much better in their most recent visit to the Link, and I have reason to believe it can do the same this week. Seattle’s offense plays no better at home than they do away on average. They may get an extra possession or two, but it generally does not amount to much difference in yardage or point totals.

Seattle’s strength at home is the 12^th Man and the way it disrupts opposing offenses. The Seahawks’ secondary is already deadly, so add some extra noise and mistakes are inevitable. Seattle rarely misses an opportunity to take advantage of these mistakes.

I’m excited to see whether San Francisco can find a way to get some momentum offensively and make this an exciting game. Unfortunately I am not at all optimistic that they will – I guess that sort of gives away who I am (strongly) leaning toward ahead of tomorrow’s official prediction.

I very much wish that the NFL had scheduled the AFC title game as the second contest this Sunday. I have a feeling it will be more exciting than this one.

2014 Conference Championships: History

It took John Elway a while to conquer the Super Bowl, but there were
never any demons in the AFC title game as Denver is 6-2 in franchise history.

Cory Puffett

Since we only have two games this weekend and they are both being played on Sunday, I felt I should write something a little different today before previewing the games tomorrow.

So class is in session as I relay to you the history of conference championships involving the four remaining teams.

Seattle Seahawks: 1-1 in Conference Championships

The Seahawks are by far the least experienced of this year’s conference championship participants. This is only their third appearance in this round and second as a member of the NFC.

They lost in their first, and only, appearance in the AFC title game back in 1983. They went 9-7 and finished second in the AFC West. The Los Angeles Raiders finished first in the division at 12-4 then beat Seattle in the conference championship, 30-14.

Eight years ago they made their second trip this deep into the playoffs after going 13-3 and winning the NFC West. They beat the Carolina Panthers, 34-14, to advance to Super Bowl XL where they fell to the Steelers.

Seattle have played in five divisional playoff games since then but couldn’t get back over the hump until Saturday when they beat the Saints.

Seattle’s overall postseason record is 10-12 (.429). They are 7-7 since moving to the NFC prior to the 2002 season.

Denver Broncos: 6-2 in Conference Championships

The Denver Broncos made their first playoff appearance in 1977, the last of the 14-game seasons. They went 12-2 and won the AFC West. It was the team’s first 10-win season. They beat the Steelers in the divisional round then beat the Oakland Raiders, 20-17 in the AFC title game before losing to the Cowboys in Super Bowl XII.

Denver was one-and-done in their next four appearances. Then from 1986 to 1989 they made the playoffs three times and won the AFC Championship each time before losing in Super Bowls XXI, XXII and XXIV.

Denver’s first loss in the conference championship was in 1991, a 10-7 loss in Buffalo.

Denver made it back to the AFC title game following the 1997 and 1998 seasons. These, of course, were John Elway’s last two years as an NFL quarterback. They beat the Steelers in the 1998 playoffs then beat Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII. The next year they beat the Jets in the AFC Championship before defeating the Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.

The Broncos made it this far just once since then. After the 2005 seasons, they lost to the Steelers in the AFC title game. The Steelers of course went on to beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL as I mentioned earlier.

This Sunday will be Denver’s ninth AFC title game.

Denver has had only four quarterbacks lead them this far in to the playoffs. Craig Morton was at the helm in the 1977 season. John Elway took them to their next six appearances before Jake Plummer led them in the 2005 season.

Fun fact, in Denver’s four AFC Championship games from 1986 to 1991, John Elway’s backup was former Houston Texans head coach, Gary Kubiak.

New England Patriots: 7-2 in Conference Championships

The Patriots are making their tenth appearance in the AFC Championship and followed a remarkably similar path to the Broncos. Denver won their first four, lost one, won two more, then lost their most recent title game.

New England did the exact same thing except, instead of winning their first four, they won their first five AFC title games. Their first came in 1985. They finished the season in third place in the AFC East despite an 11-5 record.

They had to play both teams that placed ahead of them in the division, the Jets and Dolphins, and they beat them both. The 31-14 victory over Miami came in the AFC title game. They went on to lose Super Bowl XX to Chicago.

The Patriots’ next AFC title game followed the 1996 season. Again they finished 11-5 but were the best team in the AFC East and had a first round bye. They beat the Jaguars (a second-year expansion team), 20-6 in the conference championship before falling to Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXI.

New England’s seven, and now eight, appearances since then have all come under head coach Bill Belichick. They won this game in the 2002, 2004 and 2005 playoffs and went on to win all three Super Bowls.

Their first loss in the AFC title game was in the 2007 postseason when they lost to the Indianapolis Colts, 38-34.

The next year they went 16-0 in the regular season, beat the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Championship, 21-12, and then lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants.

Two years ago the Patriots got their seventh conference championship victory, a narrow win over Baltimore in which Billy Cundiff missed a field goal that would have sent the game to overtime. They fell to Baltimore last year, though.

This is New England’s first run of three straight seasons making it this deep in the playoffs, and they’ve done it despite have one of their unluckiest three-year stretches in terms of injuries and other distractions, such as the death of Robert Kraft’s wife just before the 2011 season began.

San Francisco 49ers: 6-8 in Conference Championships

The San Francisco 49ers, making their 15^th NFC title game appearance, are the most experienced of the four teams remaining. But the Broncos have as many conference championship victories as the 49ers despite only making barely more than half as many appearances.

But there is a reason for San Francisco’s poor record in this round of the playoffs, or at least poor in comparison to the other three teams that will play this weekend. Remember that until 2002, Seattle was in the AFC. So the 49ers are the only team that had to play in the NFC’s “golden age,” so to speak.

From Super Bowl XIX, which followed the 1984 season, to Super Bowl XXXI, following the 1996 season, the NFC champion won every single Super Bowl. That 13-year run is that “golden age.” During that run, San Francisco played in eight NFC Championship games. They went 4-4 in those games.

San Francisco’s first appearances in the conference championship came after the 1970 and 1971 seasons. They lost to the Cowboys in the NFC title game both years. They made the playoffs again following the 1972 season and the Cowboys beat them in the divisional round. San Francisco did not make the playoffs again for nine years.

After just one winning record in the prior eight seasons, San Francisco went 13-3 in 1981. They finally conquered Dallas, beating them 28-27 in the NFC title game, before beat the Bengals in Super Bowl XVI.

The Redskins knocked off the 49ers in the 1984 conference championship but San Francisco went 15-1 the following season and then crushed the Bears 23-0 to advance to Super Bowl XIX, where they beat Dan Marino’s Dolphins. That, of course, was Marino’s only Super Bowl visit.

San Francisco went one-and-done in the next three playoffs but then beat the Bears and Rams by a combined 58-6 in the next two conference championships. They edged the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII and then recorded the largest margin of victory ever in a Super Bowl by beating the Broncos 55-10 in Super Bowl XXIV.

The 49ers’ next three playoff appearances resulted in losses to eventual Super Bowl champions, first the Giants in the 1991 playoffs and then to the Cowboys in in the 1993 and 1994 playoffs. They beat Dallas in the 1995 playoffs to advance to Super Bowl XXIX where they beat the Chargers.

They made it back to the NFC Championship following the 1997 season but lost to the Packers, then made the playoffs just three times in next thirteen seasons.

And that brings us to the Jim Harbaugh era of the past three seasons. The 49ers have made the NFC Championship in three straight seasons for the third time in franchise history. Harbaugh is the first coach to take his team to three of them in his first three seasons as an NFL head coach. He is 1-1 so far.

This year is the first time the 49ers have ever made the conference championship game after having to play in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

Tomorrow I will preview both conference title games, so be sure to look for those two posts. I hope you enjoyed today’s history lesson of sorts.

Saswat’s Picks, 2014 Divisional Playoffs

Saswat Misra

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

The Saints have proven they can win on the road in the postseason, but they will go up against a team that boasts probably the best home field advantage in all of the NFL. Having played them before helps, but Seattle is rested, healthier, and I believe the better team.

It will probably be closer than the last time these two teams met, but the 12^th man will do their damage again.

Saswat’s Pick: Seahawks beat Saints, 34-24.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Andrew Luck showed why he is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league last week by leading one of the greatest comebacks in NFL postseason history. He and his team have plenty of momentum, but they will have to go into Foxboro.

Tom Brady has only lost at home in the divisional round once in his career. He doesn’t have the plethora of weapons like in years past, but he knows how to get it done when it matters.

Luck will have a successful NFL career, but it’s too early to see him outduel Tom Brady and the Patriots, especially on the road.

Saswat’s Pick: Patriots beat Colts, 38-27.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

Another interesting matchup that could turn out to be a fun game. The Panther defense has been great all season and they play with great consistency, which is key. On the other side, Kaepernick is playing at the level we saw him play at last year.

Even though both defenses are amazing, I don’t think the Panthers are ready for this yet. The 49ers are the reigning NFC Champions and are playing their best football of the season. I don’t see Carolina stopping them.

Saswat’s Pick: 49ers beat Panthers, 24-13.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

The Chargers might be the hottest team in the postseason now. Rivers is back to the Rivers of old, playing at a Pro Bowl level. Plus the defense is getting it done when it matters most.

Peyton had one of the best seasons a quarterback has ever had, but I don’t consider the Broncos a runaway favorite. The defense has flaws and Peyton has had a habit of underperforming in the postseason. Add the fact that this is a rivalry game and San Diego has beaten the Broncos in earlier in the season. Finally, not that Rivers is 2-0 against Manning in the playoffs.

With all that said, I will go Denver. I just can’t see them lose for a second straight year as the number one seed. Expect Manning and company to come out hungry.

Saswat’s Pick: Broncos beat Chargers, 41-38.