2014 AFC Championship Preview: Broncos vs Patriots

Cory Puffett

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

January 19 – 3:00pm (CBS)

If ever there was a year for conspiracy theorists to raise hell over the NFL, it would be this one. Nobody could have scripted a better Final Four than we have here. It almost makes you wonder if it was scripted.

The first conference championship will feature the two remaining AFC teams, Denver and New England. John Fox and Bill Belichick. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

We already know the Manning/Brady rivalry. Fourteen matchups, 10-4 in Tom’s favor. Four Super Bowl rings, three of them Brady’s. Three times they have met in the playoffs, twice in the AFC title game. They’re tied in that department, Tom winning in Foxboro in January 2004 and Peyton winning in Indianapolis in January 2007.

John Fox and Bill Belichick met in Super Bowl XXXVIII, two weeks after Brady’s Patriots beat Manning’s Colts in that 2004 conference championship. Fox was in his second year as head coach in Carolina.

In 2001 the Panthers went 1-15 under George Seifert, a former defensive coordinator under Bill Walsh. Fox took Carolina to 7-9 in his first season as head coach and then to 11-5 and the Super Bowl in his second year.

Of course, Super Bowl XXXVIII is known mostly for the wardrobe malfunction at halftime. But at the time, it was widely regarded as the greatest Super Bowl ever. We have been spoiled in the decade since with many more of the “greatest Super Bowls of all time.”

John Fox, now in his third season with Denver, is finally back on the brink of a Super Bowl appearance. But he has to get past that foe from ten years ago.

Lucky for him, he has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. No offense to Jake Delhomme, but he’s no Peyton Manning. Of course, Fox still has to deal with Tom Brady, a better Tom Brady than he faced in 2004.

The game is being played in Denver, which is probably the main reason why the Broncos are favored. I’m sure many Broncos fans are resting a little easier, also, because the weather is not expected to be all that bad. The temperate in Denver shouldn’t drop below 40 until well after the game ends and there is no precipitation or heavy wind expected for Sunday.

Denver did not play particularly well against San Diego, at least not on offense. Manning’s dummy calls did enough to keep San Diego out of reach after an impressive opening drive, but the offense should not have slowed as much as it did. It was, after all, the first time in nearly half the season that Peyton had all four of his primary receivers available.

The good thing for Denver, though, is that their defense played very well in that game. Philip Rivers threw for 217 yards, but they held San Diego’s running backs to just 65 yards despite letting them run wild in their two regular season meetings.

New England, meanwhile, had their way with the Colts in their divisional round game. Tom Brady threw for 198 yards on just 13 completions, the high yards-per-completion rate coming from Indy’s inability to stop the run. LeGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four touchdowns.

Blount has been on a tear lately, with 431 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in his last three games. Coupled with Stevan Ridley, New England’s ground attack is peaking right now.

As funny as it may sound, Denver’s best chance to win is to stop the Patriots’ running game and make Brady throw it. No disrespect to Brady, but without Gronkowski in there he tends to go through short spurts of consecutive incompletions before getting back in rhythm with Amendola and Edelman. The Broncos will have to take advantage of that.

The other thing Denver must do is protect the ball. They had a minus-2 turnover ratio against San Diego. There are plenty of teams that Denver can do that against and still beat them. New England is not one of those teams.

For New England, the key is to accept that Manning is going to get his share of passing yards and probably a couple touchdown passes. But Denver’s offense rarely stays consistent through an entire game. Once they start stalling, the Patriots can’t afford to let those opportunities slip away. Those are chances to catch the defense while it is still tired.

My official prediction for this game will come Friday afternoon, so keep an eye out for that and for my Football Freaks co-hosts’ predictions as well. My preview of the NFC Championship game will be up later today.

2014 Conference Championships: History

It took John Elway a while to conquer the Super Bowl, but there were
never any demons in the AFC title game as Denver is 6-2 in franchise history.

Cory Puffett

Since we only have two games this weekend and they are both being played on Sunday, I felt I should write something a little different today before previewing the games tomorrow.

So class is in session as I relay to you the history of conference championships involving the four remaining teams.

Seattle Seahawks: 1-1 in Conference Championships

The Seahawks are by far the least experienced of this year’s conference championship participants. This is only their third appearance in this round and second as a member of the NFC.

They lost in their first, and only, appearance in the AFC title game back in 1983. They went 9-7 and finished second in the AFC West. The Los Angeles Raiders finished first in the division at 12-4 then beat Seattle in the conference championship, 30-14.

Eight years ago they made their second trip this deep into the playoffs after going 13-3 and winning the NFC West. They beat the Carolina Panthers, 34-14, to advance to Super Bowl XL where they fell to the Steelers.

Seattle have played in five divisional playoff games since then but couldn’t get back over the hump until Saturday when they beat the Saints.

Seattle’s overall postseason record is 10-12 (.429). They are 7-7 since moving to the NFC prior to the 2002 season.

Denver Broncos: 6-2 in Conference Championships

The Denver Broncos made their first playoff appearance in 1977, the last of the 14-game seasons. They went 12-2 and won the AFC West. It was the team’s first 10-win season. They beat the Steelers in the divisional round then beat the Oakland Raiders, 20-17 in the AFC title game before losing to the Cowboys in Super Bowl XII.

Denver was one-and-done in their next four appearances. Then from 1986 to 1989 they made the playoffs three times and won the AFC Championship each time before losing in Super Bowls XXI, XXII and XXIV.

Denver’s first loss in the conference championship was in 1991, a 10-7 loss in Buffalo.

Denver made it back to the AFC title game following the 1997 and 1998 seasons. These, of course, were John Elway’s last two years as an NFL quarterback. They beat the Steelers in the 1998 playoffs then beat Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII. The next year they beat the Jets in the AFC Championship before defeating the Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.

The Broncos made it this far just once since then. After the 2005 seasons, they lost to the Steelers in the AFC title game. The Steelers of course went on to beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL as I mentioned earlier.

This Sunday will be Denver’s ninth AFC title game.

Denver has had only four quarterbacks lead them this far in to the playoffs. Craig Morton was at the helm in the 1977 season. John Elway took them to their next six appearances before Jake Plummer led them in the 2005 season.

Fun fact, in Denver’s four AFC Championship games from 1986 to 1991, John Elway’s backup was former Houston Texans head coach, Gary Kubiak.

New England Patriots: 7-2 in Conference Championships

The Patriots are making their tenth appearance in the AFC Championship and followed a remarkably similar path to the Broncos. Denver won their first four, lost one, won two more, then lost their most recent title game.

New England did the exact same thing except, instead of winning their first four, they won their first five AFC title games. Their first came in 1985. They finished the season in third place in the AFC East despite an 11-5 record.

They had to play both teams that placed ahead of them in the division, the Jets and Dolphins, and they beat them both. The 31-14 victory over Miami came in the AFC title game. They went on to lose Super Bowl XX to Chicago.

The Patriots’ next AFC title game followed the 1996 season. Again they finished 11-5 but were the best team in the AFC East and had a first round bye. They beat the Jaguars (a second-year expansion team), 20-6 in the conference championship before falling to Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXI.

New England’s seven, and now eight, appearances since then have all come under head coach Bill Belichick. They won this game in the 2002, 2004 and 2005 playoffs and went on to win all three Super Bowls.

Their first loss in the AFC title game was in the 2007 postseason when they lost to the Indianapolis Colts, 38-34.

The next year they went 16-0 in the regular season, beat the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Championship, 21-12, and then lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants.

Two years ago the Patriots got their seventh conference championship victory, a narrow win over Baltimore in which Billy Cundiff missed a field goal that would have sent the game to overtime. They fell to Baltimore last year, though.

This is New England’s first run of three straight seasons making it this deep in the playoffs, and they’ve done it despite have one of their unluckiest three-year stretches in terms of injuries and other distractions, such as the death of Robert Kraft’s wife just before the 2011 season began.

San Francisco 49ers: 6-8 in Conference Championships

The San Francisco 49ers, making their 15^th NFC title game appearance, are the most experienced of the four teams remaining. But the Broncos have as many conference championship victories as the 49ers despite only making barely more than half as many appearances.

But there is a reason for San Francisco’s poor record in this round of the playoffs, or at least poor in comparison to the other three teams that will play this weekend. Remember that until 2002, Seattle was in the AFC. So the 49ers are the only team that had to play in the NFC’s “golden age,” so to speak.

From Super Bowl XIX, which followed the 1984 season, to Super Bowl XXXI, following the 1996 season, the NFC champion won every single Super Bowl. That 13-year run is that “golden age.” During that run, San Francisco played in eight NFC Championship games. They went 4-4 in those games.

San Francisco’s first appearances in the conference championship came after the 1970 and 1971 seasons. They lost to the Cowboys in the NFC title game both years. They made the playoffs again following the 1972 season and the Cowboys beat them in the divisional round. San Francisco did not make the playoffs again for nine years.

After just one winning record in the prior eight seasons, San Francisco went 13-3 in 1981. They finally conquered Dallas, beating them 28-27 in the NFC title game, before beat the Bengals in Super Bowl XVI.

The Redskins knocked off the 49ers in the 1984 conference championship but San Francisco went 15-1 the following season and then crushed the Bears 23-0 to advance to Super Bowl XIX, where they beat Dan Marino’s Dolphins. That, of course, was Marino’s only Super Bowl visit.

San Francisco went one-and-done in the next three playoffs but then beat the Bears and Rams by a combined 58-6 in the next two conference championships. They edged the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII and then recorded the largest margin of victory ever in a Super Bowl by beating the Broncos 55-10 in Super Bowl XXIV.

The 49ers’ next three playoff appearances resulted in losses to eventual Super Bowl champions, first the Giants in the 1991 playoffs and then to the Cowboys in in the 1993 and 1994 playoffs. They beat Dallas in the 1995 playoffs to advance to Super Bowl XXIX where they beat the Chargers.

They made it back to the NFC Championship following the 1997 season but lost to the Packers, then made the playoffs just three times in next thirteen seasons.

And that brings us to the Jim Harbaugh era of the past three seasons. The 49ers have made the NFC Championship in three straight seasons for the third time in franchise history. Harbaugh is the first coach to take his team to three of them in his first three seasons as an NFL head coach. He is 1-1 so far.

This year is the first time the 49ers have ever made the conference championship game after having to play in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

Tomorrow I will preview both conference title games, so be sure to look for those two posts. I hope you enjoyed today’s history lesson of sorts.

Saswat’s Picks, 2014 Divisional Playoffs

Saswat Misra

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

The Saints have proven they can win on the road in the postseason, but they will go up against a team that boasts probably the best home field advantage in all of the NFL. Having played them before helps, but Seattle is rested, healthier, and I believe the better team.

It will probably be closer than the last time these two teams met, but the 12^th man will do their damage again.

Saswat’s Pick: Seahawks beat Saints, 34-24.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Andrew Luck showed why he is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league last week by leading one of the greatest comebacks in NFL postseason history. He and his team have plenty of momentum, but they will have to go into Foxboro.

Tom Brady has only lost at home in the divisional round once in his career. He doesn’t have the plethora of weapons like in years past, but he knows how to get it done when it matters.

Luck will have a successful NFL career, but it’s too early to see him outduel Tom Brady and the Patriots, especially on the road.

Saswat’s Pick: Patriots beat Colts, 38-27.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

Another interesting matchup that could turn out to be a fun game. The Panther defense has been great all season and they play with great consistency, which is key. On the other side, Kaepernick is playing at the level we saw him play at last year.

Even though both defenses are amazing, I don’t think the Panthers are ready for this yet. The 49ers are the reigning NFC Champions and are playing their best football of the season. I don’t see Carolina stopping them.

Saswat’s Pick: 49ers beat Panthers, 24-13.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

The Chargers might be the hottest team in the postseason now. Rivers is back to the Rivers of old, playing at a Pro Bowl level. Plus the defense is getting it done when it matters most.

Peyton had one of the best seasons a quarterback has ever had, but I don’t consider the Broncos a runaway favorite. The defense has flaws and Peyton has had a habit of underperforming in the postseason. Add the fact that this is a rivalry game and San Diego has beaten the Broncos in earlier in the season. Finally, not that Rivers is 2-0 against Manning in the playoffs.

With all that said, I will go Denver. I just can’t see them lose for a second straight year as the number one seed. Expect Manning and company to come out hungry.

Saswat’s Pick: Broncos beat Chargers, 41-38.