10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 17

ESPN ranks the Broncos #1 and they'll enter the playoff
red hot and likely with a first-round bye.

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10.            Chuck Pagano Back to Work

Coach Pagano returned to work as the Colts’ head coach on Monday. I never thought I would see a more emotional press conference than when Jim Irsay and Peyton Manning announced his release from the Colts. I was wrong, and Chuck’s press conference is one worth watching.

9.            NBC gets Sunday Night Playoff Game

I know, I know, technically it’s not the playoffs. But if Dallas loses, their season is over. If Washington loses, it’s almost certain their season would be over. So for both teams, it is almost definitely going to be a win-and-in, loser-go-home situation. Makes for great football, and NBC will get such a game from the NFC East once again (they’ve gotten NFC East games with similar circumstances each of the past three years (NYG vs Philly in ’10, NYG vs Dallas in ’11, and now Dallas vs Washington in ’12)). Let’s see what Troy Aikman has to say this time around.

8.            Playoff Implications: AFC

Houston Texans – A win against the Colts would clinch home-field advantage, otherwise they need New England and Denver to lose. If only one of them lose, they would at least get a first-round bye.

Denver Broncos – With a win or a New England loss, Denver clinches a first-round bye. With a win and a Houston loss, Denver clinches home-field advantage.

New England Patriots – A win and either a Denver or Houston loss clinches a first round bye. A win plus loses from Denver and Houston would net New England home-field advantage.

7.            Playoff Implications: NFC

Green Bay Packers – Already in the postseason, this week’s matchup with Minnesota is still important. A win secures a first round bye. If they tie the Vikings, they need San Francisco to lose or tie the Cardinals, and if Green Bay loses, they need San Francisco to lose and Seattle to lose or tie the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers – A win or tie or a Seattle loss or tie clinches the NFC West. A win and a Green Bay loss would clinch a first-round bye.

Washington Redskins – A win over Dallas clinches the NFC East. If they lose, they’ll need Chicago to lose to Detroit and Minnesota to lose to Green Bay to still get in.

Dallas Cowboys – Dallas wins the NFC East with a victory in Washington. They have no other playoff scenarios.

New York Giants – They need to beat Philly (Michael Vick is starting) and they need Dallas to lose or tie, Chicago to lose and Minnesota to lose.

Minnesota Vikings – A win gets them into the playoffs, otherwise things rest on Chicago, Dallas and the Giants.

Chicago Bears – They can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Minnesota loss.

6.            Fantasy Disappointments

Not many leagues continue this late into the season, but mine uses all 17 (this is the last year of that nonsense). There were plenty of fantasy disappointments this week, so I’ll just list a few that stood out to me.

• BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been on a tear this season, especially during the second half, but just 14 yards on 15 carries yesterday and 1.5 fantasy points had to be disappointing.
• Frank Gore has been a rock in fantasy football all season long, like BJGE, but he only managed 2-points against Seattle in a rough day for the entire San Francisco team.
• Atlanta won without Tony Gonzalez? Not exactly, but it isn’t far from the truth as he had one catch for less than 10 yards, netting him 0.5 points in my PPR league.

5.            Fantasy Surprises

• How about Dez Bryant, who had 42.5 fantasy point in my league on the strength of nine catches for 224 yards and a pair of 58-yard touchdown catches.
• Roddy White topped 30 fantasy points for the second time this season with a 33-point performance against Detroit on Saturday night.
• After being relatively quiet since his Week 2, 34.5-point performance, Reggie Bush emerged again with 30 points against Buffalo on Sunday, with one rushing touchdown and two receiving touchdowns.

4.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.

• Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
• Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

3.            Power Rankings

Because Around the League does their rankings later on Tuesday Afternoons, I instead used a different set of Expert Rankings on ESPN. You can see the rest of the list, but I will, as usually, only list the top and bottom six here.

1. Denver Broncos	27. Tennessee Titans
2. Atlanta Falcons	28. Detroit Lions
3. San Francisco 49ers	29. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Green Bay Packers	30. Oakland Raiders
5. New England Patriots	31. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Seattle Seahawks	32. Kansas City Chiefs

The Redskins are in there at #9 and the Ravens are #10. The Cowboys and Giants are in the 14 and 15 spots, respectively on the ESPN list. This actually looks like a more accurate list than what ATL publishes on NFL.com. They put a little too much emphasis on record in my opinion.

2.            Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta seems to be peaking around the right time. I don’t give too much credence to their wins over New York and Detroit, but they did end Drew Brees’ touchdown pass record and bounced back after a loss they shouldn’t have suffered against Carolina. This week’s game against Tampa Bay will give us an indication of whether they have any chance of ending their playoff woes.

1.            Denver Broncos

I know Denver’s second-half schedule has been among the easiest in the league (maybe the easiest), but 10 consecutive wins, likely to be 11 if they don’t stumble against Kansas City, still make a team hot and confident. The fact they haven’t lost to a team they were supposed to beat, and that their three losses all came to good teams and when Peyton was still new to the team, spells good things for this team in the playoffs. I predicted them to lose six of their first seven and then win nine straight after that, so this season has gone better than expected.

10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 16

Colin Kaepernick led San Francisco to a big win against the
Patriots and now eyes the division crown.
Photo credit to USA Today.

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10.            Broncos will not Consider Resting Manning

Most likely, right about now you’re wondering why this is even worth me having on this list. Of course Denver isn’t going to rest Peyton. They’re still pushing for a first round bye and with New England unlikely to drop another egg against the Jaguars or Dolphins, the Broncos need to win out to get it – New England owns any tie breaker between the two teams.

But who the heck asked John Fox about this in the first place?! We all know the Colts rested Peyton many times, each time a controversial decision that never worked – the team’s Super Bowl win came in a wild-card year in which Peyton did not rest late in the season – so we want to know if Denver would make the same controversial decision. But wait to ask the question until there are circumstances similar to those Indianapolis was in when they rested him, not when the Broncos still have to fight for something over the final two weeks.

9.            Aaron Rodgers Supports Alex Smith

Not only do Rodgers and Smith kind of look alike – seriously, the resemblance is uncanny – but I think Rodgers feels like he shares a connection with Smith, despite them coming from entirely different NFL backgrounds. Rodgers sat patiently behind Brett Favre few a few years while Smith, as a #1 overall draft pick, has been the starter in San Francisco from Day 1.

But both have had to deal with controversy. Smith was often injured and never had any consistency with a coaching staff until Jim Harbaugh came. Rodgers had to deal with Favre’s antics when he unretired the first time. The difference is Rodgers had the support of the entire Green Bay organization. With Colin Kaepernick impressing over his first several starts, Smith doesn’t seam to have support from his team. So I think it’s really cool that Rodgers is stepping up and letting Smith know he’s got his back. Like Rodgers, I think the 49ers need to send Smith somewhere he can start next year. The quarterback with the highest passer rating in the league deserves that.

8.            Playoff Implications: AFC

Houston Texans – A win against Minnesota will lock up home field advantage.

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens can lock up the AFC North this week with a win over the Giants.

Indianapolis Colts – The playoffs are in reach, and Indy can clinch a spot with a win or a Pittsburgh loss.

Pittsburgh Steelers – In danger of missing the playoff entirely, this week’s matchup against the Bengals is critical…

Cincinnati Bengals – …because the Bengals clinch a spot with a win and the Colts clinch a spot with a win.

7.            Playoff Implications: NFC

Atlanta Falcons – A win clinches home field advantage.

San Francisco 49ers – Beating Seattle will clinch the NFC West and a Green Bay loss would then clinch a first round by for the 49ers.

Seattle Seahawks – Just a win is needed to clinch a playoff birth. There are also no fewer than a half-dozen scenarios where other teams lose or tie that would give Seattle a playoff spot.

Washington Redskins – A win plus loses from the Giants (possible), Chicago (very unlikely), and Minnesota (very likely) would secure a playoff spot for Washington.

New York Giants – A win plus loses from Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas (quite possible) and Washington would secure a playoff spot for the G-Men.

6.            Fantasy Disappointments

Not many leagues continue this late into the season, but mine uses all 17 (this is the last year of that nonsense). There were plenty of fantasy disappointments this week, so I’ll just list a few that stood out to me.

• Demaryius Thomas hasn’t scored fewer than 10 points since his Week 3, 2.5-point outing against Houston, so 3 points against Baltimore (4 catches for 13 yards) had to be rather disappointing.
• Normally I don’t include kickers on this list, but he missed a field goal from inside 40 yards on his only attempt of the day to finish with -2 fantasy points. Shame!
• Josh Freeman has been on fire this entire season, with his only remotely bad game coming early against Dallas. Four interceptions and a fumble lost against New Orleans and suddenly people are questioning him.

5.            Fantasy Surprises

• In Seattle’s second straight 50-burger, Wilson outdid his 9-point fantasy performance against Arizona with a 40-point performance against Buffalo.
• Sam Bradford’s 30-point game against Minnesota came out of nowhere.
• Nothing surprised more than Dennis Pitta in Week 15. 29.5 fantasy points on the strength of 7 catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns.

4.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.

• Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
• San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

3.            Power Rankings

For the sake of space, I will list just the top 6 and the bottom 6 here. You can see the rest on NFL.com.

1. San Francisco 49ers	27. Tennessee Titans
2. Atlanta Falcons	28. Detroit Lions
3. New England Patriots	29. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Houston Texans	30. Oakland Raiders
5. Denver Broncos	31. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Green Bay Packers	32. Kansas City Chiefs

The 49ers leapfrogged four spots to the #1 position in the Rankings and also garnered the most votes in the Power Poll, which you can view here.

The Bengals and Redskins jumped 4 and 5 spots to the #8 and #9 positions, respectively. Meanwhile, the Ravens and Giants both fell three spots and are out of the top 10.

2.            Atlanta Falcons

Well, Atlanta moved to the #2 spot on the strength of the Patriots’ loss and of the Giants poor game. Don’t get your hopes up on Atlanta. They always play well at home and this is not the first, or second, or even third time the Giants have suffered a December collapse. There are still three or four NFC teams better than the Falcons, in my opinion.

1.            San Francisco 49ers

And of course one of those teams is San Francisco. After a couple terrific starts, Colin Kaepernick struggled against St. Louis and didn’t look great against Miami. But he silenced any critics with an impressive performance against the Patriots in New England, where they almost allowed a 28-point comeback to Tom Brady but managed to score just enough down the stretch to get a 41-34 victory, which really helped their cause heading into Seattle this week. With a game left against Arizona, there isn’t much chance of them losing the division crown, but this week is a major statement game for the 49ers.