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| Five head coaches were fired on Monday in addition to the one midseason firing we had. Other jobs remain in the balance. |
An early Happy New Year to you all! Also, happy birthday to
my mother!
It’s not quite 2014 yet, but the 2013 regular season is over
and it’s time for the playoffs to begin.
I will spend the next two days previewing and predicting
each wild card game. But before I do that, I would like to give you this week’s
list of things you should know, as well as my current power rankings (based on
my own mathematical equation) of the 12 teams still standings.
Let’s get to it!
1. New Faces
Nearly half of this year’s playoff participants are new
since last year. In the AFC, San Diego and Kansas City are making their first
appearances since 2009 and 2010 respectively.
Half of the NFC participants were not in last year’s
tournament. The Saints missed the playoffs last year following three straight
trips. Philadelphia last appeared when they won the NFC East in 2010. It’s been
a little longer for the Panthers as their last trip came in 2008 when they won
the NFC South with a 12-4 record and then went one-and-done, losing to Arizona
in the divisional round.
2. AFC West
Denver, Kansas City and San Diego have all earned spots in
this year’s playoffs. This marks the fourth time in the past decade that a single
division has taken both wild card spots in their conference’s bracket. The AFC
North did it in 2011, the AFC South did it in 2007 and the NFC East did it in
2006.
Fun fact, of the four divisions that have done it in the
past 10 years, only the 2011 AFC South had three teams with at least 10 wins
(the Colts had 13, the Jaguars had 11 and the Titans had 10).
3. Third’s Not the
Charm
This is the second year in a row that a team has won 10
games but finished third in their division and missed the playoffs. The Chicago
Bears did it last year and the Arizona Cardinals suffered the same fate this
season. It’s one of the few arguments for expanding the playoffs by one team
per conference.
4. Black Monday
Several head coaches got the axe on Monday. More may come
over the next week or so. Those given their papers on the first day of their
teams’ offseasons were:
Rob Chudzinski in Cleveland
Mike Shanahan in Washington
Leslie Frazier in Minnesota
Greg Schiano in Tampa Bay
Jim Schwartz in Detroit
Remember that Houston fired Gary Kubiak midseason and Wade
Phillips took over. We’ll be looking to see what happens with him and also with
Mike Munchak in Tennessee.
5. Tomlin Takes the
High Road
Mike Tomlin could have bitched and moaned about the
officiating error in San Diego that allowed the Chargers to take Kansas City
into overtime and eventually beat them, eliminating the Steelers from the
playoffs.
Instead, he chose to take a different path. Though he does
feel that officiating is something that should be high on the NFL’s offseason
agenda, namely working a deal to make at least some of them full-time NFL
employees, he put the blame on himself and his team.
Pittsburgh started the season 0-4. The fact that they pulled
their record to 8-8 and came just a tiebreaker away from the playoffs was
incredible. But when you dig that deep a hole for yourself, it’s hard to get
upset over one officiating mistake.
6. 2014 Regular
Season
Though the week-by-week schedule has not been released, we
now know which teams will play each other and where each game will be played
for next season.
Peyton Manning will get to host his old team next year but
will have to travel to Foxboro to see Tom Brady like he did this season. Brady
will have a tough road matchup of his own, though, as his Patriots will visit
Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau.
Focusing on our local teams, let’s look at Washington first.
The Redskins will face the NFC West and AFC South. They’ll be hosting the Rams,
Seahawks, Jaguars and Titans and visiting the Cardinals, 49ers, Texans and
Colts. They will also host the Buccaneers and visit the Vikings, based on their
places in their respective divisions.
The Ravens will get the AFC South and the NFC South next
year. They will host the Jaguars, Titans, Falcons and Panthers and will visit
the Texans, Colts, Saints and Bucs. Did any of you notice that their AFC South
home and away schedule is the same as Washington’s? They’re other conference
games will be at Miami and at home against San Diego.
7. Pro Bowl
Most of you by now are aware that this year’s Pro Bowl will
not feature an AFC team playing against an NFC team. Instead, the players with
the most votes by position, regardless of conference, are placed into a pool
and will be drafted to two teams, led by Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders.
As an example of the players being picked regardless of
conference, of the six running backs that will be placed in the pool Jamaal
Charles is the only one from an AFC team.
The teams with the most players voted to the Pro Bowl are:
San Francisco – 9 players (4 offensive, 5 defensive)
Kansas City – 8 players (2 offensive, 5 defensive, 1 special
teams)
Seattle – 6 players (3 offensive, 3 defensive)
Carolina – 5 players (3 offensive, 2 defensive)
Cleveland – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 defensive)
Denver – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 special teams)
New Orleans – 5 players (4 offensive, 1 defensive)
For our local teams, the Ravens will have four players in
the Pro Bowl. Marshal Yanda made it on the offensive line, Haloti Ngata and
Terrell Suggs made it on defense, and Justin Tucker will be one of the kickers.
The only Redskin voted into the Pro Bowl is offensive tackle Trent Williams.
8. Injury Report
Official injury reports have not yet been released for the
upcoming weekend. Don’t be surprised if most teams don’t make their public
until Friday. But we do know the status of a few key players going into
Saturday and Sunday.
Clay Mathews will not be active for Green Bay’s game against
San Francisco on Sunday. With Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb both healthy,
though, the Packers should still be able to put together a solid game and maybe
even pull off an upset against the 49ers, who are currently favored by 2.5
points.
Terence Newman and Tyler Eifert were both inactive for
Cincinnati on Sunday but are listed as questionable for their Sunday matchup
with San Diego.
Kansas City lists Tamba Hali as questionable. If he can play
alongside Justin Houston, don’t be so sure that Indy will pull off the same
result of their meeting in Houston in Week 16.
Looking ahead to the divisional round, Wes Welker has been
cleared to practice for Denver after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago and
Percy Harvin (hip) will practice this week and Seattle hopes to have him
available next week.
9. Preseason
Predictions
Below are my predictions from before the preseason began of
who would make this year’s playoffs. Correct picks are in bold (didn’t necessarily get the seeding right for those teams):
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England
Patriots
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Houston Texans
5. Miami Dolphins
6. Kansas City Chiefs
NFC
1. Chicago Bears
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Washington Redskins
4. San Francisco
49ers
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Green Bay Packers
10. Power Rankings
Below is my list of power rankings, only taking the 12 playoff
teams into consideration. Keep in mind that these do not take into account
teams’ performances at home versus on the road. These consider the twelve
teams’ entire seasons compared just to each other in several statistical
categories.
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1. SEA (2.287)
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5. NO (3.397)
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9. PHI (4.859)
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2. CIN (2.524)
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6. SF (3.792)
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10. IND (5.014)
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3. DEN (2.748)
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7. NE (4.006)
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11. SD (5.324)
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4. CAR (3.256)
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8. KC (4.532)
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12. GB (5.446)
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We’ll see how these rankings stand up this postseason. The
way I would read it is that a higher ranked team should beat a lower ranked
team when the higher ranked team is at home. For example, Denver should beat
New England in Denver. But if the lower ranked team is at home, like when San
Francisco plays at Green Bay this weekend, this may be less likely to correctly
predict the winning team.
