A Football Life, Project Mayhem Evaluation

There are plenty of references in this league. Here’s one from Fight Club for those who may not get it.

Andrew Perez, No. 6 pick overall

Biggest Catches

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF (+47)

Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF (+37)

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, CAR (+33)

Biggest Reaches

Alex Smith, QB, KC (-32)

San Francisco 49ers, DEF (-31)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Nick Foles, PHI (No. 7 QB)

RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT (No. 10 RB)

WR1 Demaryius Thomas, DEN (No. 2 WR)

WR2 Andre Johnson, HOU (No. 10 WR)

TE Dennis Pitta, BAL (No. 7 TE)

FLEX Trent Richardson, RB, IND (No. 55 FLEX)

DEF San Francisco 49ers (No. 3 DEF)

K Adam Vinatieri, IND (No. 6 K)

This is easily one of the best value-based teams in the league this year. Props to the first-time fantasy football player, even though he did have some help from a few of us, including the guy who created the player rankings governing this evaluation.

One honorable mention catch that Project Mayhem got was Trent Richardson as the flex. Richardson has been a bust so far in his career, but he’s still the starter in Indy and he went 20 picks later than I had him slated for and 16 flex-eligible players I had ranked behind him were selected before he was.

An honorable mention reach was Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta, selected 13 picks ahead of my projection. However, he was the 8th tight end selected and was my 7th ranked tight end, so I didn’t include him as an actual reach.

The big reach that hurts is actually quarterback Alex Smith. Now, I like Smith; just not for fantasy. I also don’t like him when you already have two quarterbacks on your roster. Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick are both starting-caliber quarterbacks in a 12-team league, so Andrew missed out on depth at the tight end position (he only has one tight end and Heath Miller was available for solid value at the 127th pick).

The 49ers defense doesn’t hurt too badly, but Aldon Smith is gone for nine games and some other important players are not healthy. The Denver Broncos would have been a better selection and they were available at that point in the draft.

After applying my value-based equation, Project Mayhem winds up with a -16 for the starting lineup, a +114 for the bench, and a +98 overall.

Andrew’s starting lineup is ranked 5th in the AFL based on value while his team’s overall value-based ranking is 2nd.

Project Mayhem could use a little bit of work on the starting lineup, but the depth is fantastic and has a great shot of turning up a gem that could get big points and take this team to the playoffs.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 63 percent chance of making the playoffs.
• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 46 percent chance of making the playoffs.
• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs.

You can read the entire evaluation of this team at FootballGuys.com.