Wednesday, September 3, 2014

A Football Life, Team Massimini Evaluation


William Massimini, No. 5 pick overall

Biggest Catches
Heath Miller, TE, PIT (+55)
Rueben Randle, WR, NYG (+35)
Steven Jackson, RB, ATL (+12)

Biggest Reaches
Andrew Hawkins, WR, CLE (-130)
Josh McCown, QB, TB (-57)
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI (-32)

Projected Starting Lineup
QB Matthew Stafford, DET (No. 6 QB)
RB Matt Forte, CHI (No. 3 RB)
WR1 A.J. Green, CIN (No. 3 WR)
WR2 Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ (No. 14 WR)
TE Heath Miller, PIT (No. 13 TE)
FLEX DeSean Jackson, WR, WSH (No. 45 FLEX)
DEF Buffalo Bills (No. 12 DEF)
K Blair Walsh, MIN (No. 9 K)

Heath Miller was the best value draft choice for Team Massimini on Sunday. The veteran tight end dropped 55 placed beyond where I ranked him and William picked him up in the 13th round. Miller wasn’t the first tight end the team picked up though. Zach Ertz was a 10th round selection, but was one positional rank behind Miller, which is why Ertz is not only not on the projected starting lineup but is also on the list of biggest reaches.

The other two players on the biggest reaches list, I’ll admit, are up for debate. Josh McCown did a fantastic job last year filling in for an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago. The reason I had him ranked as the No. 22 QB and No. 185 player overall is because I’m expecting a sizeable drop-off in productions this year. I think that McCown is a good quarterback, but I also believe he was a product of having such great weapons around him. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were the best receiver duo in the league last year. Matt Forte is arguably the best receiving back in the game. The Buccaneers have a good receiver in Vincent Jackson, but I put Marshall and Jeffery both ahead of him, and Doug Martin is no Matt Forte, on the ground or through the air.

Andrew Hawkins is the one that really got me thinking after the draft though, because 130 picks is a lot and he probably deserved to be ranked higher than 195. That said, these were my rankings before the draft so I’m not going to change it now, and I’ll even defend why he was my 65th ranked receiver. Somebody has to step in for Josh Gordon, but I don’t think it’ll be a receiver. I think Ben Tate is going to get a lot of work out of the backfield, I think Terrence West will get plenty of opportunities to spell Tate. And, considering Brian Hoyer is the starter and he had great chemistry with him early last season, I don’t see why Jordan Cameron can’t be score 15+ points every week. Those will be the big receivers because Kyle Shanahan knows he doesn’t have much to work with at receiver and he’ll be designing a lot of plays that involve the tight end and running back. By the time defenses adjust to that and the receivers get an increase in targets, the fantasy season will be halfway done and, because of little work, Miles Austin will still be healthy and getting plenty of looks.

Based on value, Team Massimini earned a grade of +48 for the starters, -168 for the bench, and -120 overall.

William’s starters are the top-ranked unit in the league based on value, but the value-based grade for his team as a whole drops him to 9th.

The good news is that the starters are the most important part of a fantasy team. The problem is that if bye weeks screw things up or, worse, someone gets injured, Team Massimini doesn’t have reliable depth. Some waiver wire magic may be required to take this preseason contender to a postseason appearance.


Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

  • With great in-season management, we think you have about a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good in-season management, we think you have about a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average in-season management, we think you have about an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs.


You can read the entire evaluation of this team at FantasyGuys.com.

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