Another TV show reference. Any Breaking Bad fans out there? Of course there are!
Nolan Soter, No. 3
pick overall
Biggest Catches (Best Value)
Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN (+19)
Ben Tate, RB, CLE (+10)
Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)
Coby Fleener, TE, IND (-55)
Tony Romo, QB, DAL (-48)
Matt Prater, K, DEN (-40)
Projected Starting Lineup
QB Tony Romo, DAL (No. 14 QB)
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA (No. 6 RB)
WR1 Pierre Garçon, WSH (No. 11 WR)
WR2 Victor Cruz, NYG (No. 16 WR)
TE Jason Witten, DAL (No. 6 TE)
FLEX Doug Martin, RB, TB (No. 31 FLEX)
DEF Houston Texans (No. 11 DEF)
K Matt Prater, DEN (Unranked)
I told him when he drafted Coby, and I’ll tell Nolan again:
there is no guarantee that Coby is the
guy in Indy this season. I love Coby Fleener. Obviously Andrew Luck does,
too. They played together at Stanford and they have great chemistry. But
Indianapolis also really liked Dwayne Allen, which is why I had Allen ranked
above Fleener. Of course, neither cracked my top 192 (12 teams, 16 rounds, 192
picks for those scratching your heads).
Fleener was the 17th TE off the board, but he was my TE21,
meaning that at least four better tight ends were available when Nolan selected
him. Not to mention he didn’t crack my top 192 yet was taken in the 13th round.
Tony Romo was an interesting pick. From a positional
standpoint, he wasn’t an astronomical reach. Sure I had Philip Rivers, Jay
Cutler and Colin Kaepernick all ranked ahead of him, and yeah they were all
still available, but Tony Romo has been a fantasy beast before and he could be
again (granted it could take an injury to DeMarco Murray for that to happen). The
problem is that he took Romo 48 picks sooner than he could have had him. That’s
48 picks-worth of value Nolan passed up on to grab the Dallas quarterback.
Then there’s Matt Prater. Now, fantasy experts always
suggest you only draft one kicker. If ever there was a guy who should have
drafted two, it’s Nolan. Prater is suspended for the first four weeks of the
season, and though he could very well lead the league in points over the course
of the final nine weeks of the regular season, that won’t do Nolan much good
for his first four matchups. I didn’t even have Prater ranked, but to be nice I
gave him the ranking just below the last player I did rank in order to give him
a value of -40, even though it should probably be much lower than that.
Now, everyone is going to reach for players. Even I reached
for a couple and I was using these rankings when I drafted. The problem comes
when you don’t land any gems. Nolan only landed two guys 10 or more picks after
they were valued, and only one is likely to make any kind of contribution in
the first half of the season (I don’t see there being any real time-share
between Bernard and Hill in Cincinnati).
Put it all together and Los Pollos Hermanos earned a -112
value-based rating for the starting lineup, a -21 for the bench, and an overall
-133.
This all adds up to a rank of 11th in overall team value and
11th for starter value in the AFL. Los Pollos Hermanos is the only team in the
bottom third of the league in both values, so this really puts them in a tough
position. Not that I’m complaining, I get first crack at him this week.
Bonus
In order to include something without my biased rankings at
its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four
official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.
- With great in-season management, we think you have about a 46 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good in-season management, we think you have about a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average in-season management, we think you have about a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs.
You can read the entire evaluation of this team at
FootballGuys.com.
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