Cory Puffett
New England Patriots
at Denver Broncos
January 19 – 3:00pm
(CBS)
If ever there was a year for conspiracy theorists to raise
hell over the NFL, it would be this one. Nobody could have scripted a better
Final Four than we have here. It almost makes you wonder if it was scripted.
The first conference championship will feature the two
remaining AFC teams, Denver and New England. John Fox and Bill Belichick.
Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
We already know the Manning/Brady rivalry. Fourteen
matchups, 10-4 in Tom’s favor. Four Super Bowl rings, three of them Brady’s.
Three times they have met in the playoffs, twice in the AFC title game. They’re
tied in that department, Tom winning in Foxboro in January 2004 and Peyton
winning in Indianapolis in January 2007.
John Fox and Bill Belichick met in Super Bowl XXXVIII, two
weeks after Brady’s Patriots beat Manning’s Colts in that 2004 conference
championship. Fox was in his second year as head coach in Carolina.
In 2001 the Panthers went 1-15 under George Seifert, a
former defensive coordinator under Bill Walsh. Fox took Carolina to 7-9 in his
first season as head coach and then to 11-5 and the Super Bowl in his second
year.
Of course, Super Bowl XXXVIII is known mostly for the
wardrobe malfunction at halftime. But at the time, it was widely regarded as
the greatest Super Bowl ever. We have been spoiled in the decade since with
many more of the “greatest Super Bowls of all time.”
John Fox, now in his third season with Denver, is finally
back on the brink of a Super Bowl appearance. But he has to get past that foe
from ten years ago.
Lucky for him, he has one of the greatest quarterbacks of
all time. No offense to Jake Delhomme, but he’s no Peyton Manning. Of course,
Fox still has to deal with Tom Brady, a better Tom Brady than he faced in 2004.
The game is being played in Denver, which is probably the
main reason why the Broncos are favored. I’m sure many Broncos fans are resting
a little easier, also, because the weather is not expected to be all that bad.
The temperate in Denver shouldn’t drop below 40 until well after the game ends
and there is no precipitation or heavy wind expected for Sunday.
Denver did not play particularly well against San Diego, at
least not on offense. Manning’s dummy calls did enough to keep San Diego out of
reach after an impressive opening drive, but the offense should not have slowed
as much as it did. It was, after all, the first time in nearly half the season
that Peyton had all four of his primary receivers available.
The good thing for Denver, though, is that their defense
played very well in that game. Philip Rivers threw for 217 yards, but they held
San Diego’s running backs to just 65 yards despite letting them run wild in
their two regular season meetings.
New England, meanwhile, had their way with the Colts in
their divisional round game. Tom Brady threw for 198 yards on just 13
completions, the high yards-per-completion rate coming from Indy’s inability to
stop the run. LeGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four touchdowns.
Blount has been on a tear lately, with 431 rushing yards and
eight rushing touchdowns in his last three games. Coupled with Stevan Ridley,
New England’s ground attack is peaking right now.
As funny as it may sound, Denver’s best chance to win is to
stop the Patriots’ running game and make Brady throw it. No disrespect to
Brady, but without Gronkowski in there he tends to go through short spurts of
consecutive incompletions before getting back in rhythm with Amendola and
Edelman. The Broncos will have to take advantage of that.
The other thing Denver must do is protect the ball. They had
a minus-2 turnover ratio against San Diego. There are plenty of teams that
Denver can do that against and still beat them. New England is not one of those
teams.
For New England, the key is to accept that Manning is going
to get his share of passing yards and probably a couple touchdown passes. But
Denver’s offense rarely stays consistent through an entire game. Once they
start stalling, the Patriots can’t afford to let those opportunities slip away.
Those are chances to catch the defense while it is still tired.
My official prediction for this game will come Friday
afternoon, so keep an eye out for that and for my Football Freaks co-hosts’
predictions as well. My preview of the NFC Championship game will be up later
today.
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