Divisional Round Afterword: Patriots vs Texans

Shane Vereen had a rushing touchdown and two receiving touchdowns,
including this 33-yarder in the 4th quarter to put the game on ice.
Photo credit to The Boston Globe.

For the second consecutive season, New England will host Baltimore for the AFC Championship. Yesterday I reviewed how Baltimore advanced past the divisional round. Now it is time to look at the Patriots.

New England earned the #2 seed in the AFC and so did not have to play in the wild-card round. Houston, who beat Cincinnati to advance to the divisional round, was not given much chance to beat the Patriots. By the time it was 38-13, we knew why.

Houston scored a couple garbage time touchdowns and New England added a field goal to make the final score 41-28, but the game was never even that close.

Arian Foster came within 10 rushing yards of his fourth consecutive 100-yard playoff game. He also gained 63 yards on seven receptions.

Matt Schaub actually had a decent game, completing 34/51 passes (66.7 completion percentage), for 343 yards, two touchdowns and one pick.

So why was the game never close? Houston’s defense was absolutely embarrassed in Foxboro for the second time this season, that’s why. Whereas Houston did not have a single 30-yard completion, for New England, the longest reception for three different receivers was more than 30 yards.

It was a fairly clean game with just one turnover. Houston fumbled three times but recovered each of them. It truly was big plays that ultimately killed the Texans’ postseason run.

New England hosts Baltimore on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. on CBS. The winner advances to Super Bowl XLVII.

Divisional Round Preview: Patriots vs Texans

Game 4:

Sunday, January 13, 2013

4:30pm – CBS

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Arian Foster (23) and Ben Tate (44) each had 46 rushing yards in Week 14,
but Foster had Houston's only rushing touchdown.
Photo credit to isportsweb.com.

Join me on a trip to Foxboro, back in Week 14, when the Patriots blew out the Houston Texans, 42-14. It was Houston’s second loss of the season, but it was a turning point for the worse.

Tom Brady had four touchdown passes in the game, despite not topping 300 passing yards. If Houston wants to win this postseason rematch, they have to force New England to settle for some field goals.

New England’s defense has been shoddy at times, but one thing they have excelled at is forcing turnovers. Matt Schaub has had some trouble with turnovers in the past several weeks, and if he doesn’t protect the football I give Houston no chance at winning. Tom Brady may have struggled in the last game or two of the season, but he is still Tom Brady and he will hurt you if you give him extra possessions.

The Patriots have a solid ground game this year. In their Week 14 meeting with Houston, Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen combined for 112 yards on 26 carries. Houston’s defense is usually very good, and last week’s effort against Cincinnati was no exception. They will have to repeat last week’s performance and shut down New England’s ground game in order to effectively rattle Brady with pass rushing.

Bottom line, I don’t trust Houston’s offense right now. They have so many weapons that on paper, Houston has the ability to blow out the Patriots. But they are finding themselves in too many third down situations and they are turning the ball over. I think the Texans’ defense will keep it close, but I don’t expect their offense to take advantage.

Puff’s Pick:

Houston Texans – 14

New England Patriots – 20

MVP: Tom Brady

Wild-Card Afterword: Texans vs Bengals

Arian Foster (23) ran for 140 yards and a touchdown on
32 carries, but fumbles twice in a 19-13 wild-card win.
Photo credit to The Washington Post.

It didn’t have the typical feeling of a game played in a playoff atmosphere, but the score was close throughout and that mostly made up for it.

I expected the Bengals defense to play well, but I didn’t expect the Texans’ offense to perform so poorly. On the other side of the ball, things went about as I expected for both teams.

Houston’s defense dominated, giving up just two field goals to Cincinnati, while the Bengals’ lone trip to the end zone came on an interception return by Leon Hall. It was an amazing play and it’s better seen than explained, so you can watch that replay here.

The Texans’ offense, on the other hand, was sporadic to put it kindly. Their game plan was just short of awful. They had a few drives where they ran good plays, and those were the drives where they put points on the board, as you would expect. But they had too many drives where they ran bad routes and run plays in passing situations.

Arian Foster gained nearly 150 yards on the ground and is the first player in NFL history to have over 100 rushing yards in each of his first three playoff games. I’m not sure how much weight this stat has, though, as Houston faced 17 third downs and failed to convert exactly as many times as the Bengals, who were 0/9 on third down.

Matt Schaub made his first career playoff start – T.J. Yates started both playoff games for Houston last year – so I chalk some of his struggles to nerves. But he didn’t really seem to play much differently than he has over the past five or six games this season.

I’ll look more closely at the matchups later in the week, but I’d be very surprised if I come up with any result other than a big win for New England when the Texans travel to Foxboro next weekend.

For the Bengals, Andy Dalton missed a wide-open A.J. Green in the end zone with less than three minutes to play. That score would have given Cincinnati a one-point lead and forced Houston to drive the field for a field goal. But Dalton overthrew his star receiver and Cincinnati could not come up with a stop on Houston’s ensuing drive and the Texans just ran the clock out for a 19-13 victory.

It is the second straight year Cincinnati’s season ends with a wild-card loss in Houston and Marvin Lewis is now 0-4 in the postseason. I don’t expect him to be fired like several other NFL coaches were this season, but that kind of futility in the playoffs have led to more surprising firings in the past.

Wild-Card Preview: Texans vs Bengals

Game 1:

Saturday, January 5, 2013

4:30pm – NBC

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

Andre Johnson had 90 receiving yards and a score in last
year's playoff meeting with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Photo credit to playmakeronline.com.

While the Bengals and Texans did not face off this season, they are no strangers to one another. In the first game of Wild-Card weekend last year, Houston defeated Cincinnati at home in the Texans’ first ever playoff appearance. They did so with T.J. Yates under center due to a season ending injury Matt Schaub sustained. Now, Schaub is back and I give a lot of weight in my decision to that alone.

What Cincinnati does have going for them is that they are red hot. The Texans have lost three of their last four. Cincinnati has won three of their last four and seven of their last eight.

While Houston’s losses have all come to playoff teams – Green Bay, New England, Minnesota and Indianapolis – the Bengals are coming off wins against Baltimore and a Pittsburgh team that was still searching for a wild-card birth when they met in Week 16. Beyond that, however, Cincinnati's only quality win came against Washington in Week 3, and it’s hard to tell how much that really counts for them now.

Andy Dalton has had a solid sophomore season, becoming the third player in NFL history to throw for 20+ touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. He also threw a lot of interceptions, rarely having a game in which he didn’t throw one. Against a very good Texans defense, I have a hard time believing that he will completely avoid turnovers.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been great this season, as well. But again I give an edge to Houston here. J.J. Watt does so many things well, and though I’m not sure he’s their guy in stopping the run, he allows the true run-stoppers on their defense to do their job effectively.

If Cincinnati is going to win, it will have to be on the merit of strong defensive play and on the back of A.J. Green. The second-year wide receiver has been phenomenal and is already being compared to Calvin Johnson. He is one of the most athletic players in the NFL and he runs routes very well.

I trust Houston more than Cincinnati in this game, though. Matt Schaub has not put up the numbers he did in 2010, but he is still a solid quarterback and Andre Johnson has been terrific this year. My real deal-breaker, though, is Arian Foster. I don’t expect him to have a huge game, but he is the kind of back who can run to convert a third-down and keep a drive going. Between him and Andre Johnson, I think Houston has a little more than Cincinnati will be able to handle.

Puff’s Pick:

Cincinnati Bengals – 13

Houston Texans – 24

MVP: Andre Johnson