2012 Postseason Rewind: Wild-Card Playoffs

The postseason kicked off in Houston, where the AFC South champs took on Cincinnati. Houston was at the top of the conference for the whole season, but a Week 17 loss opened the door for Denver and New England to sneak past them for the top two seeds and a bye straight through to the divisional round.

Houston never looked like they were playing with much confidence on offense. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, their offense was even worse. The Bengals’ only touchdown of the contest came on an interception. The Texans only scored 19 points, but it was enough, barely, to advance.

Green Bay hosted Minnesota later that evening. As NFC North rivals, they had already played each other twice this season, most recently in Week 17, just one week before. Minnesota won that game at home in a shootout. The loss kept Green Bay out of the NFC’s #2 seed.

This time, they met in Green Bay and Christian Ponder was unavailable. Joe Webb started for him and looked great running the ball as a compliment to Adrian Peterson on the first drive. Poor passing stalled the drive, forcing a field goal, and that’s all they would get until garbage time. Good defense kept the Packers from running up the score, but the 24-10 final is even closer than the game was.

Sunday’s first game featured Indianapolis in Baltimore. The Colts had won 9 of their last 11 and was coming off a win against Houston. Baltimore hadn’t beaten a good team since before their bye week.

In Ray Lewis’s return from injury, the Ravens dominated Indianapolis on defense and Anquan Boldin made a few very impressive catches down the field to give Baltimore’s offense a lift. The Colts never had a prayer.

Just minutes after that game, a few miles down I-95, the Redskins were set to host the Seahawks. The Redskins had won seven straight, including a game against the Cowboys a week earlier to decide the NFC East Champion. Washington got off to a hot start, quickly building a 14-0 lead on their first two drives.

Robert Griffin III was hurt some time during the second drive and was noticeably inaccurate the rest of the game as Seattle slowly mounted their comeback. In the fourth quarter, RG3 took a bad step attempting to recover a botched snap and hurt his knee badly – he would have surgery on his LCL and ACL a couple days later. The Seahawks, meanwhile, completed their comeback, aided by the Redskins not scoring again after their first two possessions.

Tomorrow I will recap the divisional round, followed by the AFC and NFC championships on Friday. Saturday I will briefly preview the Pro Bowl because I have nothing better to do. Keep up with new posts by ‘liking’ my blog’s Facebook page and by following me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

Wild-Card Afterword: Redskins vs Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch had 20 carries for 132 yards and a score
against Washington's usually-stingy run defense.
Photo credit to USA Today.

The Redskins got off to a fast start and it seemed like they were well on their way to trouncing the visiting Seahawks. Washington’s first two possessions resulted in 14 points while their defense held Seattle to nothing in the first quarter.

The Seahawks remained calm, however, and their defense went to work on the Redskins while their offense came up with some big plays. They pulled the game to within one point at half time.

The Redskins hung in there and the defense forced a big goal-line turnover and some key third down stops, but Seattle’s generally poor rushing defense played very well and their passing defense was up to par with where it was during the season. It certainly didn’t help the Redskins that RG3’s passing mechanics were poor throughout the last three quarters. He just couldn’t keep the ball down in this contest.

Marshawn Lynch, who averaged 5 yards per carry during the regular season, averaged nearly two more yards per carry at FedEx Field.

Russell Wilson played well, too, and is the only rookie quarterback who will advance to the divisional round. The Seahawks will play in Atlanta at 1:00 p.m. Sunday. Atlanta has not won a postseason game with Matt Ryan at quarterback.

RG3 re-injured his knee in the fourth quarter against Seattle and will spend the off-season getting healthy. Monday’s MRI results were inconclusive (difference of opinion with several doctors) so he is flying down to Florida with Dan Snyder today to get another MRI and go through some fitness tests with Dr. James Andrews.

It is a disappointing exit from the postseason for the Redskins. Still, the fact Washington made it this far after a 3-6 start is remarkable.

It does sting Redskins fans, though, that they have been bounced from the playoffs by the Seahawks for a third consecutive time.

Wild-Card Afterword: Ravens vs Colts

Anquan Boldin had 5 receptions for 145 yards and this
touchdown in Baltimore's Wild-Card matchup with Indy.
Photo credit to USA Today.

The Colts got out to a terrible start and never recovered. They had multiple opportunities to steal this game from the Ravens, and they never took them.

Joe Flacco didn’t look very good in the first half. He wasn’t protected well, he made poor decisions and often even poorer passes. But his receivers came to play, Anquan Boldin more than anyone else.

A pair of very impressive receptions by Boldin in the first half went a long way to settle down his quarterback. Flacco looked like a completely different player in the second half, putting great touch on balls thrown down the field and trusting his receivers to keep making plays. Boy, did they.

The game had a closer feel than the 24-9 final score would suggest, but Baltimore’s offense played like they were never threatened.

On the other side of the ball, Ray Lewis was a bigger factor than I expected. I knew he would provide a huge emotional boost, but to have 13 tackles in his first game since Week 6? He was everywhere on the field. That wouldn’t have surprised me much, but even before his injury he didn’t appear as involved as he was Sunday.

What impressed me most was the overall play by Baltimore’s defense. Indianapolis ran roughly 23 plays in the first quarter. Baltimore was in the single-digits. Even though Baltimore kept Indy from scoring, that is a lot more time spent on the field than they would like to have spent. Remember that the Colts have come up with explosive plays throughout the season, so to play so tired but keep Indy out of the end zone all game impressed me very much.

An emotional season for the Colts ends in Chuck Pagano’s old home, and the coach shared an emotional moment with a Baltimore defensive player as time expired, which was very touching.

Baltimore will play in Denver next week, a tough task for anyone. It will be a much bigger challenge to take on Peyton Manning and his receiving corps, as well as to face a much more talented defense, but Baltimore’s performance today certainly did not hurt their outlook for that game. It should be a good one, and I will preview it Thursday.

Wild-Card Afterword: Packers vs Vikings

The Vikings send John Kuhn spinning through the air on his
second touchdown of the night, this one a 9-yard reception.
Photo credit to The Boston Globe.

I said in my preview that the Vikings’ playoff destiny rested more on Christian Ponder than on Adrian Peterson. Ponder did not play because of limited range-of-motion resulting from an elbow injury sustained last week. However, it was backup quarterback Joe Webb who influenced this game more than anything else.

On the first drive of the game, Webb and Peterson ran for over 20 yards each. But on the last play, Webb dropped back looking for a lane to run through rather than a receiver to throw to and delivered a poor, off-balance pass that forced Minnesota to settle for a field goal.

The Vikings’ defense stopped Green Bay on the next drive, but their offense could not take advantage, so Aaron Rodgers did. Late in the second quarter, with a 10-3 lead in tow, the Packers got the ball on their own 38-yard line with less than two minutes in the half. Consecutive completions by Rodgers of 22, 26, and 23 yards set up John Kuhn for a 3-yard touchdown run. Suddenly, a game that had a close feel through most of the half seemed to be getting out of hand at halftime.

Each team would add a touchdown in the second half, but it was clear that Joe Webb was not a passing threat. He did throw a 50-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins in the fourth quarter, but he was left wide open and the pass was not particularly good. Jenkins walked up the sideline for that score.

Because of the lack of a passing game, the Packers were able to key in on the run and contained Adrian Peterson. Usually, giving up 99 rushing yards to a running back isn’t something to hang your hat on, but with Adrian Peterson that was a huge accomplishment. The Packers have only allowed two running backs all year to top 100 yards against them – Adrian Peterson twice and Frank Gore back in Week 1.

The 24-10 victory sends Green Bay to San Francisco for the divisional round and a rematch of that Week 1 loss, which was contested at Lambeau. The 49ers are very different than they were then, with Colin Kaepernick their starter rather than Alex Smith.

The Vikings’ season ends with a disappointing loss, but overall it has to feel like a successful year for Minnesota. Most analysts, myself included, picked them to finish in the basement of a tough NFC North. Adrian Peterson came back stronger than expected and the Vikings had a terrific season overall. I only wish we could have seen how the game would play out Saturday night if Christian Ponder had been able to play.

Wild-Card Afterword: Texans vs Bengals

Arian Foster (23) ran for 140 yards and a touchdown on
32 carries, but fumbles twice in a 19-13 wild-card win.
Photo credit to The Washington Post.

It didn’t have the typical feeling of a game played in a playoff atmosphere, but the score was close throughout and that mostly made up for it.

I expected the Bengals defense to play well, but I didn’t expect the Texans’ offense to perform so poorly. On the other side of the ball, things went about as I expected for both teams.

Houston’s defense dominated, giving up just two field goals to Cincinnati, while the Bengals’ lone trip to the end zone came on an interception return by Leon Hall. It was an amazing play and it’s better seen than explained, so you can watch that replay here.

The Texans’ offense, on the other hand, was sporadic to put it kindly. Their game plan was just short of awful. They had a few drives where they ran good plays, and those were the drives where they put points on the board, as you would expect. But they had too many drives where they ran bad routes and run plays in passing situations.

Arian Foster gained nearly 150 yards on the ground and is the first player in NFL history to have over 100 rushing yards in each of his first three playoff games. I’m not sure how much weight this stat has, though, as Houston faced 17 third downs and failed to convert exactly as many times as the Bengals, who were 0/9 on third down.

Matt Schaub made his first career playoff start – T.J. Yates started both playoff games for Houston last year – so I chalk some of his struggles to nerves. But he didn’t really seem to play much differently than he has over the past five or six games this season.

I’ll look more closely at the matchups later in the week, but I’d be very surprised if I come up with any result other than a big win for New England when the Texans travel to Foxboro next weekend.

For the Bengals, Andy Dalton missed a wide-open A.J. Green in the end zone with less than three minutes to play. That score would have given Cincinnati a one-point lead and forced Houston to drive the field for a field goal. But Dalton overthrew his star receiver and Cincinnati could not come up with a stop on Houston’s ensuing drive and the Texans just ran the clock out for a 19-13 victory.

It is the second straight year Cincinnati’s season ends with a wild-card loss in Houston and Marvin Lewis is now 0-4 in the postseason. I don’t expect him to be fired like several other NFL coaches were this season, but that kind of futility in the playoffs have led to more surprising firings in the past.

Wild-Card 2012, Part IV

As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.

Game 4:

Sunday, January 8, 2012
4:30pm – CBS

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

I am excited to see Tim Tebow in the playoffs, but there is no hiding my feeling that he and the Broncos will be leaving early. On the bright side, they won’t have a long flight to come back on after the game.

There is hope for the Broncos, but I don’t think it is enough.

Rashard Mendenhall is out for the Steelers, and an already fantastic Broncos defense will only have an easier time because of it. Just because I am confident that Denver will lose on Sunday, I do not see the Steelers running up the score by any means.

Another ray of hope for the Broncos is Pittsburgh’s loss of Ryan Clark for this game. A few years ago, in a game between these two teams in the same stadium, Clark nearly died after the high altitude caused some medical problems due to him having sickle cell trait (which is not the same as sickle cell anemia). After that game, Clark had to have two major organs removed.

The significance of that loss is that Clark’s style of play allows Troy Polamalu to free style and give the appearance of being everywhere on the field at one time. If Polamalu has to play the role of a safety, that could give Tebow room to run around with only James Harrison to really have to keep a close eye on. If Polamalu starts cheating up, Tebow has shown that he can throw, and if he can break the slump he spent the last three weeks in, the Broncos could give the Steelers a scare.

That said, my pick:

Pittsburgh beats Denver, 17-10

Other Predictions:

Bengals @ Texans
Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants

Wild-Card 2012, Part III

As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.

Game 3:

Sunday, January 8, 2011
1:00pm – FOX

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

This is the matchup I am most excited to watch this weekend. The Falcons have done a fantastic job of protecting Matt Ryan all season, especially during the past eight weeks, and they will be tested against a very strong Giants defensive line. Meanwhile, Eli Manning is the record holder for single-season 4th quarter touchdown passes and his young wide receiver, Victor Cruz, has been one of the most impressive players I’ve seen this season.

Cruz went from being undrafted a few years ago to setting a Giants franchise record for single-season receiving yards and third in the NFL during the 2011 season. He also has the most 65+ yard touchdown receptions in a single season than anyone since the 50’s with five of them.

Meanwhile, Atlanta also has a young wide receiver who has come on quite strong of late. Julio Jones, after a very quiet several weeks, has really been big for the Falcons during the last three or four games, which has also allowed Roddy White to put up some bigger numbers than he was early in the season. With Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons have three top-notch receivers who are all coming into the playoffs hot.

Matt Ryan has not been as impressive to me this year as he was in 2010, but if the Falcons offensive line can continue to keep him on his feet, Ryan may finally break into the win column in a postseason game.

This is the toughest game for me to call, which is the main reason why I am more excited for this game than the Saints/Lions game.

My pick:

Atlanta beats New York, 21-17

Other Predictions:

Bengals @ Texans
Lions @ Saints
Steelers @ Broncos

Wild-Card 2012, Part II

As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.

Game 2:

Saturday, January 7, 2012
8:00pm – NBC

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

As I write this I am watching the entire week 13 matchup between these two teams. New Orleans put up some big points, 24 of them, in the first half and only gave up a touchdown before the break. Detroit had a good 3rd quarter, outscoring the Saints 10-0 before giving up another score in the final period and losing 31-17.

The glaring difference between that matchup and tomorrow’s is that their earlier meeting was in the middle of Ndamukong Suh’s suspension. With Suh in tomorrow, the Lions defense could look very different and it will be very interesting to see how the Saints go about using their ground game.

Last week, Detroit showed that they can participate in a shootout. They lost to the Flynn-led Packers, but it was a fireworks display on offense. That experience could go a long way to helping them in this game against a team that knows how to put up big points.

A week after Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s 27-year old passing record, Tom Brady broke the same mark and Detroit’s young quarterback nearly bested Marino, too. What’s more impressive is he did it without fewer well-known weapons than Brees. Nate Burleson had a quite early part of the season but he has been playing a bigger part in the Lions’ offense recently. The Saints did a pretty good job in their earlier meeting with covering Calvin Johnson, so Burleson will need to get open with so few other targets for Stafford to go to.

My pick:

New Orleans beats Detroit, 41-27

Other Predictions:

Bengals @ Texans
Falcons @ Giants
Steelers @ Broncos

Wild-Card 2012, Part I

As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.

Game 1:

Saturday, January 7, 2012
4:30pm – NBC

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

This is a very interesting matchup for many reasons, not the least of which is that two rookie quarterbacks will be facing off in this one.

Andy Dalton is one of my favorites for rookie of the year, with only Cam Newton and Von Miller also being in the running, in my opinion. T.J. Yates has had a rough last few weeks, but did pretty well in his first outings of the season.

Yates has said he feels very confident this week, but no matter how he does, I think the Bengals have the edge in the passing game. Though Andre Johnson is terrific, Yates has to get him the ball, and I don’t think he can do that enough to give his team a huge life through the air. That said, he doesn’t really have to because the Texans have a huge advantage running the ball. Arian Foster continued to show that he can have huge performances this season after leading the league in rushing in 2010. In addition, Ben Tate has had his share of big games, and no matter which is on the field, the Bengals have to respect the Texans’ rushing attack.

The Texans also have an advantage on defense. After being one of the lower ranked defensive units last season, Wade Phillips has done a fantastic job turning them around this season, one of the reasons why the Texans are making their first postseason appearance in franchise history despite losing Matt Schaub to injury early in the season.

Don’t expect the Bengals to fall easily, but they will fall this week.

My pick:

Houston beats Cincinnati, 27-16

Other Predictions:

Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants
Steelers @ Broncos

2010 Postseason Rewind: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Wild-Card Weekend
Sunday, January 9, 2011

Prior to the first round beginning, this was supposed to be the game to watch. It lived up to that expectation, though both of the previous day’s games were exciting in their own way.

This was to be a rematch of what many fans now feel week 1 of the regular season should have been, Aaron Rodgers vs. Michael Vick. Of course, that early season game did end that way, but it began with Kevin Kolb leading the Eagles to battle before he suffered a concussion. Green Bay won that game, 27-20. But, after he ‘reinvented himself,’ Philly fans thought Vick would deliver them a victory.

As it turned out, they were wrong. Vick did well, throwing for nearly 300 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. But the Packers defense stalled most of his drives before they could score points. They got to Vick in the backfield, sacking him three times for a net loss of 21 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, helped the Packers show why they may be considered the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, as he threw three touchdowns on 180 yards passing. James Starks, meanwhile, had a monster game no one saw coming. He ran for 123 yards and, even though he didn’t score any touchdowns, he provided a spark, and a ground game on which Rodgers was able to build his air attack.

Both teams played very well, but a missed two-point conversion for the Eagles late in the game meant they would need a touchdown. They failed to get a shot at scoring as the Packers kept the ball away from them as long as they needed to and came out on top, earning a visit to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta to take on the NFC Regular Season Champ Atlanta Falcons.

Final Score: Green Bay Packers – 21, Philadelphia Eagles – 16

2010 Postseason Rewind: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Wild-Card Weekend
Sunday, January 9, 2011

Baltimore showed up; Kansas City didn’t. That was the story of this game. After taking a 3-0 lead, Baltimore gave up a big touchdown run, 41 yards, to Jamaal Charles. In a position where they could have easily fallen apart trying to fix things that weren’t broken, the Ravens instead settled down and never gave up another score to the Chiefs.

Joe Flacco never faced too much pressure, and when he did he was able to get out of the way and still deliver solid throws. He finished the day with 265 passing yards and two touchdowns. Matt Cassel, however, was the Matt Cassel many expected to see but Chiefs fans hoped never to see again. He threw for just 70 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions.

Ray Rice never got a whole lot going with his legs, but with a solid defensive effort and an offensive line that was protecting its quarterback, Flacco carried his team to the Divisional Round, it’s third appearance in the second round in as many years. That accomplishment made Flacco the first player to make and win a playoff game each of his first three years in the league. With this win he also tied Dan Marino’s record for most wins in a quarterback’s first three seasons.

This loss ended the hopes of Chiefs fans and players who were hoping to finally win a playoff game after such a long wait. They have not won a playoff game since the 1993 season, when they made it to the AFC Championship game only to lose to a Bills team that would go on to lose its fourth consecutive Super Bowl.

The future does look bright for the Chiefs, though. They completely revamped their team last offseason and could be looking at another good year in the AFC West next season (pending the CBA situation).

Baltimore, meanwhile, punched their ticket to Pittsburgh with this win and that rivalry would be renewed. It is a rivalry that seems to boast games that get closer and lower scoring every time they meet. These two teams have defenses that are constantly ranked in the top 5-10 of all defenses in the league. They also boast two quarterbacks who have proven their worth to their teams but tend to have more troubles than usual when facing the opposing defense.

Final Score: Baltimore Ravens – 30, Kansas City Chiefs – 7

2010 Postseason Rewind: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Wild-Card Weekend
Saturday, January 8, 2011

In another game that ended somewhat unexpectedly, the Jets shocked the Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium.

A very sloppy first half ended with the Colts leading 7-0. Mark Sanchez couldn’t keep his passes low enough for his receivers to catch them and the Colts tried too hard to establish a running game. Indianapolis had a rough season, barely winning the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Jets were in a very close race for the AFC East until the final few weeks of the season.

The Colts had to win their final four games to lock up a birth in the postseason, and they did so by finally setting Manning up with a decent ground game to keep the defense honest and not constantly expecting the ball to be left in Peyton’s hands. However, the Colts appeared to be too set on getting their running backs rolling and forgot that Manning was ultimately the reason they had made this far to begin with. When Manning threw, he did so well, but behind a very unexpected game plan they suffered through several three-and-outs among other short-lived drives early on. The Jets didn’t do much better, though, and the Colts had the lead going into halftime, their score coming on one big play on which Pierre Garcon beat the Jets secondary for a 57-yard touchdown.

The Colts never could find the end zone in the second half, however. After the Colts defense started giving way to the Jets offensive attack, the Jets looked to be in control.

Having taken a 14-10 lead in the fourth quarter, the Jets finally began giving way to Manning’s attack, and the Colts defense held strong, forcing two three-and-outs on the same drive (a running-into-the-kicker penalty gave the Jets an automatic first down, but they again could not convert on their own). The Colts scored field goals on two drives to take the lead, 16-14.

The Colts haven’t had a particularly strong defensive unit for a few years now. Last year was their best showing since their Super Bowl run in 2006, but even last year they struggled. However, they have always seemed to perform well in one situation, when they had to get the ball back. With the lead late in the game and no need to get the ball back for Manning, they fell apart. After a dismal 4th quarter to that point, Sanchez finally began making some headway.

A controversial late time out called by Jim Caldwell gave Sanchez an opportunity to find out that Braylon Edwards had been beating his man on each of the previous three plays. Sure enough, he went to him right out of the time out for an 18-yard play (though he almost threw it too high, something he had been having trouble with all game). Nick Folk came onto the field and kicked the winning field goal as time expired.

This marked the first time that a Rex Ryan coached defense beat Peyton Manning, minus the late-season game during the 2009 season in which Curtis Painter played much of the game for the Colts.

The Jets advanced to the Divisional Round, clinching a game in Foxboro, where they lost, to say the least, to New England 45-3 as the season neared its end. In four meeting between the two teams with Rex Ryan as the head coach in New York, the home team has won every time.

The Jets looked to advance to their second consecutive AFC Championship Game while the Patriots aimed to prove correct the analysts who claimed this to be an even better team than the ’07 Patriots who went undefeated in the regular season. That story will be available Wednesday evening.

Final Score: New York Jets – 17, Indianapolis Colts – 16

2010 Postseason Rewind: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Wild-Card Weekend
Saturday, January 8, 2011

In an incredible game that many figured would be a blowout in favor of the defending Super Bowl champions, the Seahawk stunned the Saints in front of their home crowd at Quest Field. The first team to win their division and earn a playoff appearance with a 7-9 record, Seattle showed NFL fans that they deserved the spot many felt they had taken from teams like the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who each won 10 games.

Analysts gave Seattle very little credit in the week leading up to this game, but a healthy Matt Hasselbeck made all the difference. He lit up the field as nearly every pass was thrown in as perfect a place imaginable. He finished the day with 4 touchdown passes and just one interception.

After going down 10-0 early in the first quarter, Seattle marched down field and responded with a touchdown and continued their rally in the second quarter where they outscored New Orleans 17-10 on their way to taking a 24-20 halftime lead.

Seattle came out firing to start the second half, and their defense held tight to help their offense extend their advantage to 34-20 by the end of the third quarter. The Saints didn’t give up though. A touchdown and a field goal later, the score was 34-30 and Seattle looked on the verge of an offensive collapse. However, terrible tackling by New Orleans, and a showcase of strength on the part of Marshawn Lynch, effectively sealed the deal in Seattle.

The Saints put up a fight and scored a touchdown to pull to within 5 (41-36), but failed on the two-point conversion. After a failed onside kick, all the Seahawks had to do was have Hasselbeck sit on the ball and time ran out on New Orleans, almost before it began.

The Saints hadn’t been given much chance to get to the Super Bowl, but very few seriously expected them to be sent packing so soon. Meanwhile, the Seahawks earned an opportunity to prove that they deserved to be in the postseason by showing up the following week. As the #4 seed, winning this game did not tell them who they would be playing the following week, only that they would be playing in the Divisional Round. Until the next day, they only knew they would either be playing as the visiting team, either in Chicago (where they won early in the season) or Atlanta (a team that beat them fairly handily in Seattle back in week 15).

Was this game a fluke, or were the Seahawks really as dangerous as they appeared in this Wild-Card game against the Saints. The answer to that question came the following week. The story on that will be available Wednesday evening.

Final Score: Seattle Seahawks – 41, New Orleans Saints – 36

Wild-Card, Pt. IV

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 4:

Sunday, January 9, 2011
4:30pm - FOX

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

This will likely be not only the most watched game, but also the most exciting game of the first round of this year’s postseason (though, as you will see by my prediction, the score may not suggest it). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are just now hitting their stride, and over the past few weeks no one has known which Eagles team was going to show up. Michael Vick is having an amazing season, but over the past few weeks he has suffered against heavy rushes, and the Packers have the tools to bring just that.

With Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson being two of the best pass rushers in the league right now, Vick could be in for a long day. As it is, the Eagles have to be concerned that he won’t be able to get away from rushers with his thigh injury. Vick says that he is 100% but that could just as easily be false information. And if it is not the case, Vick could be taking some shots that may lead to Kevin Kolb being pinned with the job of getting the Eagles past Green Bay.

The Eagles defense hasn’t impressed me recently, and with Rodgers ability to sense what is happening around him in the pocket, he is a very dangerous person to face when your defense is struggling. Rodgers can run with the ball, he can sit and find an open man, and he can beat you play in and play out with whichever direction he goes. The Packers have so many weapons this year for Rodgers to throw to that it is very difficult for defenses to have enough time to get a glove on him. Even hurrying Rodgers is a challenge this year.

The best way to fight this is to forget about rushing Rodgers. Send the standard four rushers and spy Rodgers with one or two linebackers. Send the other five or six defenders back to cover the pass. If Rodgers’ weapons are all covered and there is no running lane for him, there may just be enough time for the defensive line to outlast the Packers’ O-Line.

Meanwhile, the Packers will need to pressure Vick early. Woodson and Matthews will be called on a lot early on, and A.J. Hawk can’t be forgotten about either. Matthews and Hawk are two of the most talented linebackers in football and both have the ability to rush the Quarterback or drop back and shut down any passing options over the middle.

One advantage the Eagles have is their receiving weapons. With DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin both possessing the ability to get open very quickly, whether running over the middle or down field, Vick may be able to get some long throws off before the defense can reach him.

Something the Eagles may want to consider doing is to run some draw plays. The only way to get pressure on Vick is if you send some people around outside, otherwise Vick can scramble out and beat you to the corner. If the Eagles’ offensive line can pick up the Packers linemen rushing from the outside, and leave a couple linemen in front to keep the linebackers away from him, LeSean McCoy would be a dangerous weapon, especially if the Eagles can sell the pass before putting the ball into his hands.

This game will go down to which team’s defense is most effective. The Packers are at a disadvantage in the offensive ground game, but Aaron Rodgers is more than capable of making up for that through the air. How much the Packers will use Brandon Jackson remains to be seen, but Green Bay’s strength is in the passing game and they need to not stray from that. Jackson is a good back, and he should get some touches, but the ball needs to be primarily placed in Rodgers’ hands if the Packers are going to win this game like I think they will. Even with the Packers primarily relying on the pass, I don’t see the Eagles containing the pass.

My pick:

Green Bay beats Philadelphia, 41-23

Wild-Card, Pt. III

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 3:

Sunday, January 9, 2011
1:00pm - CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

This is a tough game to analyze, much less predict. The Ravens have won six of their last seven games. Kansas City, meanwhile, is coming off two blowout losses in their last four games.

If Kansas City is going to win, they need to find a way to get blockers down field and keep Ray Lewis off their running backs. If the Chiefs can’t get Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles rolling on the ground, the Ravens will have plenty of fun defending against Matt Cassel, who has had some great games, but primarily when they succeed in the running game.

Of course, there are also many questions surrounding Joe Flacco. He is a talented player, but he seems to lose confidence easily after very minor mistakes. The more confidence he loses, the poorer he plays. Kansas City’s best chance may come through shutting Flacco and the Baltimore passing game down.

The Ravens’ pass defense ranks in the bottom half of the league, but their rushing defense was number five in the league this year, and that poses a huge problem for Kansas City. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a pass defense that ranks right in the middle of the league, and their rushing defense ranks around the same. This gives Baltimore the advantage on paper.

But games are rarely won as simply as they are on paper. The Chiefs have a great offensive line geared toward the run. They should have little difficulty keeping the Ravens’ defensive line away from the running backs, so Baltimore will be relying on their linebackers to stop the run. On the other side, the Chiefs defensive line has faltered over the past couple weeks, getting pushed around up front and allowing holes to open that even I could find from the backfield.

Ray Rice should have a big day against the Chiefs, and barring any mental breakdowns, will open up opportunities for Flacco to find his receivers, especially over the middle.

A key to winning for the Chiefs will be play action. But they need to be effective in selling the run. They need to get the linebackers biting on the fakes early so they don’t step up as quickly when Kansas City actually does run the ball. In other words, the Chiefs need to find a way to use the pass to set up the run.

The Ravens have a much simpler task. They just need to keep Cassel from making good throws early. If they can do that, they take away the Chiefs’ ability to set up the running game. Kansas City will start relying too much on the run and the Chiefs could fall out of this game early.

My pick:

Baltimore beats Kansas City, 24-14

Wild-Card, Pt. II

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 2:

Saturday, January 8, 2011
8:00pm - NBC

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

This is a tough one to choose. If the Jets are going to win this game, they may have to rely on their defense to do so, which is no easy task when Peyton Manning is the Quarterback you’re facing. With players like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie playing opposite two of Manning’s weapons, the Jets match up better against the Colts than most teams in the NFL. But Manning will look for Jacob Tamme underneath, and then use his accuracy to exploit any missed strides by the Jets’ secondary. As Rex Ryan described his ability, “Manning can go into a play with three options and find a fourth.”

The biggest problem this game poses for the Jets is their offense. Sanchez was looking very good early in the year, then he started faltering and it took some last-second miracles to pull out a few games. Over the past few weeks, he has not been good at all. He has a few decent drives, but he can’t keep it up throughout the game. If the Colts can contain the pass early, they will be able to focus on the run more and more as the game goes on. The Colts worst defense comes against the run, but only when they have to worry about a good pass attack. When they don’t have to worry too much about the pass, they actually do a decent job of containing the run.

In addition, over the past few weeks the Colts have vastly improved their own rushing offense. It has helped Manning get over his mid-season breakdown and he is back to playing lights-out football.

One thing that does bode well for the Jets is the Colts’ inability to put games away. The Colts have not won a game, this season, by more than 10 points since weeks two and three when they beat the Giants by 24 and then the Broncos by 14. This allows for a chance that another last-minute drive could net the Jets a win in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Now, one thing that has kept people’s attention is the belief that, because the Colts had to win out to get into the postseason, it may give them a better chance to make it to the Super Bowl, but that isn’t true. Yes, the last time they won the big game they had to go through the Wild-Card round. But Manning is no stranger to this round of the postseason. Since being drafted, this will be Manning’s 7th Wild-Card appearance. Of his previous six Wild-Card games, he has won just three. Once, they won the Super Bowl after having done so. But each of the other two times the Colts would ultimately lose to the Patriots, who are, for good reason, widely considered the best team in the NFL this year.

In addition, of the two times the Colts have been in the postseason after posting a 10-6 regular season record with Manning at QB, the Colts have lost in the Wild-Card game two times. The Dolphins beat them in the 2000 Wild-Card game in overtime, and the Jets destroyed the Colts in the same round of the 2002 postseason, 41-0.

It is not out of the question for the Jets to come away with a big win, though 41-0 is highly unlikely. But to do so, their secondary needs to be perfect. If they allow Manning one shot down field, he’ll be able to get several more. That’s how Manning plays. One big play gives him such a boost that he finds ways to get more downfield shots, and he does it with ease. The Jets have to shut that down. They also need to get pressure in Manning’s face. The Colts’ offensive line is not filled with great pass blockers. They are only good when the pressure comes from the outside. They can pick that up easily; Manning can step up into the pocket and deliver a great throw. If the Jets rush straight at Manning, the offensive line will break down much more quickly and they will get some hits on the Colts’ prize Quarterback.

Manning has been haunted by history throughout his career. He has historically been a better regular season player than a postseason hero, so the question is: is this the year to put this all behind?

My answer comes easily: no. I have no doubt Manning will be back in the Super Bowl, but not this year. Injuries keep the Colts out of the Super Bowl, and the inability to close out games may keep them from advancing. Ultimately, though, I think Manning will be able to get the Colts to Heinz Field for a divisional round matchup against the Steelers. The Jets cannot play perfect defense, and their offense isn’t strong enough to pick apart the ailing Colts defense.

My pick:

Indianapolis beats New York, 23-13

Wild-Card, Pt. I

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 1:

Saturday, January 8, 2011
4:30pm - NBC

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

All week people have said this will be a blowout, but I have a different take on this game. I agree with people who say the Seahawks do not deserve to be in the postseason, but, as Pete Carroll put it, “I never complained about the BCS system, I won’t complain about this system. There were good teams who should have made it to this point but the system didn’t allow it.”

Though they may not deserve it, the Seahawks earned this spot and this home game fair and square, and don’t expect them to let themselves fall out of this game too early. I still fully expect the Saints to advance to the Divisional round, but I don’t think it will be as easy a game as many people think it will be.

Carroll announced late Thursday that Matt Hasselbeck will be ready to start on Saturday, and this is good news for Seahawks fans. Charlie Whitehurst brought a great amount of athleticism to the Seahawks, but he lacks the overall skills needed of a Quarterback with plans to take his team on a Super Bowl run. Hasselbeck has been there, he has the skills and experience and so matches up well against Drew Brees.

That said, the Seahawks lack something that may leave them at a disadvantage. I felt the Rams would have matched up better against the Saints. Sam Bradford is an incredibly accurate QB and was able to give the Rams some big play ability, something that allows teams to stretch the defense. In addition to Bradford, they had receivers who were able to get open down field and finish off the big plays. While Hasselbeck has the ability to stretch defenses, I don’t think the Seahawks have a receiving corps that will be able to stretch the Saints’ defense. And if they can’t stretch the defense, Marshawn Lynch may find it a bit more difficult to run against New Orleans than it was against St. Louis.

So the Seahawks may have to rely on the passing game. They will need to be very methodical in picking apart Gregg Williams’ defense, finding open receivers underneath the corners, mixing in some runs and play action to keep the defense from keying in too much.

More importantly, if Seattle wants a realistic shot of winning this game, they will need to force turnovers. Brees has been having a lot more trouble this season not committing turnovers than he did last year. When faced with pressure, he is so against taking a sack that he will force passes that, more often than not, end up as interceptions. The Seahawks need to get pressure on Brees and force him into bad throws.

They also need to watch out for screens. With their two leading rushers out due to injury, the Saints will be turning to Reggie Bush, who was injured for a fair portion of the season. He has been back since Thanksgiving, but hasn’t played as well as he did earlier in his career. I don’t expect them to try to run him more than they need to, but they will be looking to get him into the open field, which is one place he is still very dangerous to be. Look for them to set up some screens and maybe play action to the fullback with a quick toss out to Bush out in the flat.

If the Saints want to win this game by a large margin, they will need to find a way to keep people away from Brees. It is the one area of his game Brees struggles in. If he has time and protection, he is all but impossible to stop. His accuracy is deadly, and that applies to any distance down the field. He can pick the defense apart, he can stretch it out, and if there is good coverage he can scramble to pick up a few yards.

Another way to get a big win in Seattle is to get some big plays early and take the 12th man out of the game. Of course, the defense will need to hold back any attacks by the Seahawks or the crowd will be all too ready to get right back into the game. But this is one of the toughest crowds to play as the visiting team against. The Saints have done well away from home with a 6-2 away record this season, but this will be a tougher crowd than anyone the Saints have had to deal with this season.

I don’t see the Saints’ defense being a huge problem, unless they are on the field too long. The offense needs to be converting first downs to keep the defense resting, because the Saints get sloppy opposite the ball when they get tired. That’s when Hasselbeck will be dangerous and the Seahawks may be able to claw back into the game.

As much as I think this will be a closer game than expected, I fully expect the Saints to go in, handle Seattle’s 12th Man, and get the win. Even if Seattle hangs with them early, they don’t have the skills to run with the Saints down the stretch, as long as New Orleans avoids mistakes.

My pick:

New Orleans beats Seattle, 31-20