Puff’s Picks, Super Bowl XLIX

Cory Puffett

I wasn’t sure if I would be writing this blog post. I didn’t have that much interest in doing so. An NFL season that began in controversy is now ending with one.

“Deflategate” has taken all attention away from the game and placed it on a possible rules infraction that made no difference in the outcome of the AFC Championship game. Whether the Patriots broke the rules or the officials were negligent in their pre-game equipment check, the Colts were going to be blown out.

Considering New England actually performed better in the second half when the footballs were properly inflated, it could have been even worse for Indianapolis.

Needless to say, I have not watched ESPN’s Super Bowl coverage at all in the past two weeks. In fact, I haven’t even turned on NFL Network’s coverage.

To make matters worse, my PlayStation console is out of order, so this will be the first time since Super Bowl XXXV that I will not be using Madden to make my final prediction of the season.

Coming into this game, a big part of me thought the Patriots could win this game. Their offense has been outstanding since their sluggish start to the season culminated in getting beat down by Kansas City in week 4. In addition, their defense is pretty darn good and should match up well against Seattle.

But that was before this controversy took over the media. Players and coaches can say until they’re blue in the face that it’s not a distraction, but it truly is when it’s all the media wants to talk about. It takes your focus away from your opponent, even if only momentarily.

For the most part, the Seahawks have had the luxury of focusing solely on the Patriots. Not only that, they’ve been able to get healthy. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, my biggest concerns after the NFC Championship game, have both been listed as full participants in practice for the Seahawks.

If any defense can slow down New England’s offense, it’s the Seattle Seahawks’ defense. And if there is any quarterback who has shown that he can beat the best teams in the NFL every single time, it’s Seattle’s.

Russell Wilson won’t have another pick-fest this Sunday, he’s already been on this stage, and he is 10-0 against quarterbacks with a Super Bowl title under their belt. It’s been a while since he’s gotten one, but Tom Brady still fits in that category the last time I checked and so I’m going with my gut this week and taking the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Pats.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Patriots, 27-20

Puff’s Picks, Divisional Round

Cory Puffett

One round down and, as Eric says, the real playoffs begin now. Four of the eight remaining teams won last week. This round will still be tough to predict though because the other four teams didn’t have to play last week.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Saturday, January 10, 4:35pm – NBC

I did pick the Ravens to win last week against Pittsburgh, but I’ll be the first to tell you it was a shot in the dark. I couldn’t pick four home teams to win because it never happens. Of the four wild card teams, the Ravens had the best chance to win in my opinion, so I took them.

Going into this week I looked at the four games and tried to figure out which road teams have the best chance to win. In my opinion, the Ravens are one of the two teams with the best chance.

Their defense is better now than it was two years ago when they won the Super Bowl, their offense is better, and Joe Flacco has continued his inexplicable playoff hot streak.

That said, I struggle pulling the trigger on the pick because of who they’re playing. Sure they’ve gone up and won two playoff games in New England under John Harbaugh, but this year’s Patriots are 7-1 at home, have a completely healthy Gronk, a very good running game, and a fantastic secondary.

I can see this game going either way, but I have to give the nod to the team with the elite quarterback.

Puff’s Pick: Patriots over Ravens, 17-13

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 10, 8:15pm – FOX

Like the Patriots, the Seattle Seahawks are 7-1 at home. They lost at home to Dallas early in the season, but this is a much different team now. The defense has gotten back to form and though the offense is hard to figure out, Russell Wilson is balling out.

The Panthers have won five in a row and it’s certainly fathomable that they could go up to Seattle and pull out a close one. I’ll be shocked if this game is a blowout.

The reason I have to take Seattle in this game is because of the consistency with which they are able to win the tight contests. Carolina and Seattle, for whatever reason, have been playing very close, low-scoring games the past three years. Every time, Seattle has managed to pull it out.

While I give Carolina more than a fighting chance to win this game, I have to give Seattle the nod to advance to the NFC Championship with a last-minute game-winning touchdown drive.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Panthers, 17-16

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 11, 1:05pm – FOX

I wonder how many times a team that is 8-0 on the road has visited a team that is 8-0 at home in the playoffs? I guarantee you can count the instances on one hand.

That’s what we get this Sunday afternoon when the Cowboys visit Lambeau Field.

This is a nearly impossible game to pick. In addition to the Packers being unbeatable at home and the Cowboys being unbeatable on the road, these are two spectacular teams.

Both teams have outstanding running backs, quarterbacks playing at the top of their game, great receiving corps, and defenses that can lock down their opponents when they have to.

The Cowboys get a lucky break with Aaron Rodgers suffering from a calf tear. He will play, but he’ll be limited. He has shown an ability to play hurt, but even I have to wonder how effective he’ll be over the course of the entire game.

Dallas arguably needed a little luck to even get here, but don’t kid yourself into thinking this team isn’t for real. In my opinion, this is the best team in the playoffs on paper. The only things that can keep them out are the locations of their games and whether they execute their game plan.

Rodgers is just 1-2 at home in the playoffs in his career. That, along with his nagging injury, is enough justification for me to make this my upset pick for this round.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Packers, 27-21

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Sunday, January 11, 4:40pm – CBS

Peyton Manning has not been himself lately. In his last four games he has thrown three touchdowns and six interceptions and averaged fewer than 250 passing yards per game.

Denver has gotten a huge lift from C.J. Anderson, who started the season as the number three running back on the Broncos’ depth chart.

Anderson has exceeded 80 rushing yards in each of his last three games and seven of his eight rushing touchdowns on the season have come in his last four games.

The cold weather may affect Peyton Manning, but as long as he can deliver a few passes at key moments in the game, Denver should have no trouble believing Anderson can carry the rest of the load on Sunday.

The Colts sort of limped into the playoffs. Andrew Luck was really struggling down the stretch. He had turnover issues all year, but as the season drew to a close, he was not delivering enough positive production to make up for his mistakes.

He got back on track last week against Cincinnati, but I still have my doubts about how playoff-ready the Colts are and whether they’ll be able to execute in the altitude without playoff veteran Ahmad Bradshaw available.

Puff’s Pick: Broncos over Colts, 31-17

Puff’s Picks, 2015 Wild Card

Happy New Year, everyone! Thursday evening I watched the first ever college football playoffs. The first game was more than a little disappointing. I was pulling for Jameis Winston and the Seminoles, but the main disappointment was with how poorly Florida State played in the second half. They didn’t even put up a fight.

Thankfully, the late game offered much more excitement. I generally can’t stand college football, and the touchdown catch for OSU at the end of the first half annoyed me more than a little (seriously, NCAA, you only need one foot in bounds? Is this grade school?). But it was a fun game and it’s nice to see four teams get to compete for the chance to play in the national championship game.

Now it’s time for the real tournament to begin, the professional one. The clock doesn’t stop for a first down and you better get that second foot down in bounds.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Someone had to win the NFC South. The Panthers finally emerged from a pack of teams that didn’t seem to want to play in January and earned a playoff birth with a four-game winning streak to end the season.

Whether the Panthers earned the right to host a playoff game is another matter. Maybe in 2016 they wouldn’t be hosting, but this year they are. The Arizona Cardinals are a depleted bunch with their first- and second-string quarterbacks both injured. They do not have Andre Ellington available.

If there is any good news for the Cardinals, it’s that most of the defensive players who appeared on their injury report have been able to practice in some capacity this week.

Sadly for them, I don’t think that will be enough. The Arizona offense doesn’t bother me at all if I’m Carolina, and the Panther offense has hit their stride lately, despite Kelvin Benjamin have some trouble catching the ball lately.

I hate to pick against Bruce Arians, I think he’s one of the best head coaches in the NFL right now. But I don’t think Arizona is healthy enough to pull out this game on the road.

 Puff’s Pick: Panthers over Cardinals, 27-13

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

As much as Ravens fans annoy me and I’m not thrilled that their team made the playoffs, I am thrilled that we get a third matchup between these two teams this season. This is my favorite rivalry in the NFL.

The only disappointing thing about this weekend’s matchup is that the two teams aren’t at full strength. The Ravens will be without starting left tackle Eugene Monroe as well as rookie defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan.

The Steelers are lucky to have most of the players on their injury report listed as probably. The one exception is second year running back Le’Veon Bell, who recorded the second most rushing yards in the NFL this year behind DeMarco Murray. Bell was also the only player in the top 15 for rushing yards this season without a fumble and had the most receiving yards in the NFL from the running back position.

Early in the week, when Bell’s status was still unknown, I was leaning heavily toward Pittsburgh winning this game. The Ravens have been inconsistent, even as Joe Flacco has quietly put together the second-best season of his career. Then again, the Steelers have had some inconsistencies themselves.

Pittsburgh is playing at home, but given Bell’s status and unknown quality of depth at the running back position I have to give the nod to the Ravens this weekend.

Puff’s Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-23

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

This might be my least-anticipated game of the weekend. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game under Marvin Lewis and the Colts have not impressed lately. Their near-shutout loss to Dallas in week 16 aside, Andrew Luck has been turning the ball over a lot lately.

To be fair, Luck had been turning the ball over a lot all season. He has only recorded three turnover-free games all year, and he three seven interceptions in two playoff games a year ago. But early this season and even last postseason he made up for the turnovers by racking up tons of passing yards and a slew of touchdown passes. He led the NFL with 40 of them this season.

He hasn’t kept up that trend in the past few weeks, though, and so I expect this to be an ugly game with neither team truly winning it. It’ll come down to which team does more to lose it.

The good news for the Colts is that they’re playing at home and are much healthier than the Bengals. With A.J. Green doubtful and two other wide receivers out, Cincinnati may have to rely solely on Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard on offense. That won’t be enough, even if Cincy’s defense forces a few mistakes by Luck.

Puff’s Pick: Colts over Bengals, 20-14

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The Lions are very lucky that Ndamukong Suh’s suspension was overturned and he will be permitted to play this Sunday. I understand the decision, though I certainly don’t agree with it.

I don’t think it will mean much, though. The Lions offensive unit is equipped with more talent than they’ve ever had. Their rookie tight end is a little shaky, but Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are excellent runners with a solid backup in Theo Riddick. Meanwhile, Golden Tate has finally given the team the viable second receiver they’ve needed to keep defenses honest rather than letting them focus their entire secondary on Megatron.

Yet this offense has failed to gel on a consistent basis. They looked great in their season opener against the Giants, but they’ve only shown flashes of that since.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys avenged their home loss to the Redskins with a huge win in week 17. Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray both throughout and came out uninjured and looking terrific. Any concerns about Murray’s hand were put to rest.

Even the talent on Detroit’s defense will not be enough to stop Dallas, and I have no problem saying that the Cowboys will shut down Detroit’s offense for the majority of the game.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Lions, 30-17

Puff’s Pick: Super Bowl XLVIII

Cory Puffett

It is finally here, the one game of the year that I turn over the responsibility for my pick to EA Sports. Every year since the 2000 season, I have played the Super Bowl on Madden to determine my prediction. Every year I pick a team to root for (what fun is the Super Bowl if you don’t care who wins?) and play as that team in the first half. I let my competition nature come in by playing as the other team in the second half.

This year, surprise, surprise, I’m rooting for Peyton Manning and the Broncos. So I played as Denver in the first half and Seattle in the second half.

Here are the results of each of my 13 previous Super Bowl prediction games on Madden.

Super Bowl	My Result	Real Result	My Record
Super Bowl XXXV	NYG – 42, BAL – 38	BAL – 34, NYG – 7	0-1
Super Bowl XXXVI	NE – 21, STL – 17	NE – 20, STL – 17	1-1
Super Bowl XXXVII	TB – 13, OAK – 10	TB – 48, OAK – 21	2-1
Super Bowl XXXVIII	NE – 24, CAR – 23	NE – 32, CAR – 29	3-1
Super Bowl XXXIX	NE – 42, PHI – 31	NE – 24, PHI – 21	4-1
Super Bowl XL	PIT – 17, SEA – 14	PIT – 21, SEA – 10	5-1
Super Bowl XLI	IND – 35, CHI – 21	IND – 29, CHI – 17	6-1
Super Bowl XLII	NE – 27, NYG – 21	NYG – 17, NE – 14	6-2
Super Bowl XLIII	PIT – 14, ARI – 12	PIT – 27, ARI – 23	7-2
Super Bowl XLIV	NO – 37, IND – 31	NO – 31, IND – 17	8-2
Super Bowl XLV	GB – 31, PIT – 30	GB – 31, PIT – 25	9-2
Super Bowl XLVI	NE – 35, NYG – 21	NYG – 21, NE – 17	9-3
Super Bowl XLVII	SF – 27, BAL – 17	BAL – 34, SF – 31	9-4

So my main struggles have come with the Giants and the Ravens, but for all I know last year could have been more about the read option being too easy to execute on Madden.

Today I played this Sunday’s game. You can check out the box score and stats below.

Now you know my official prediction, based on Madden. But I had been leaning toward Seattle as it was. I remain optimistic about Denver’s chances on Sunday, but if you recall my post early this week comparing the two teams, Seattle was better in four of eight categories and tied with Denver in two others.

The forecast for Sunday has looked less and less hostile each day and is now looking to be on par with what the Broncos have been experiencing in Denver the past few weeks. The only difference is that Sunday’s game will be after dark. Still, with very little chance for precipitation, this should not be a sloppy game.

That would seem to favor Denver, but Marshawn Lynch will beat you no matter what the weather is. I don’t know that he’ll pick up almost 200 rushing yards like he did in my game of Madden, but he is without a doubt my x-factor in Super Bowl XLVIII.

If Denver’s defensive line can stop him early and force Seattle to punt, the Broncos will take the lead and very likely hold on to it. If the Beast can break some tackles early and pick up some momentum for his team, it is going to be very difficult for the Broncos to put the brakes on him, much less put a lot of points on the board.

I think Sunday’s game will be a really good game with both teams protecting the ball. The one thing I know will be different from my prediction game is the number of penalties. If I remember correctly, the last time a game featured even one team without a single penalty was well before I was born, and I’m 22 years old.

Penalties very well could be a deciding factor. Seattle tied Philadelphia for the most defensive pass interference penalties this season and they haven’t matched up with a receiver corps like Denver’s. If they run into those kinds of problems, they’ll be in for a long day.

But if Seattle can eliminate those big-yardage calls, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they walk away with the 34-27 victory that I am predicting.

Thanks for following my NFL coverage all season and I look forward to writing my Super Bowl afterword on Monday and hopefully continuing my coverage of the NFL throughout the offseason.

Puff’s Pick: Seattle beats Denver, 34-27

Puff’s MVP: Marshawn Lynch

Super Bowl XLVII: Puff’s Pick

It is that time again. Those of you who have read my blog in the past know that I have used Madden to make my Super Bowl prediction every year since Super Bowl XXXV, so this is my 13^th year. I am 9-3 to date and I thought it would be fun, before I get to today’s prediction, to look back on the past twelve years.

Super Bowl	My Result	Real Result	My Record	1st Half Team
SB XXXV	NYG-42, BAL-38	BAL-34, NYG-7	0-1	Giants
SB XXXVI	NE-21, StL-17	NE-20, StL-17	1-1	Patriots
SB XXXVII	TB-13, OAK-10	TB-48, OAK-21	2-1	Raiders
SB XXXVIII	NE-24, CAR-23	NE-32, CAR-29	3-1	Panthers
SB XXXIX	NE-42, PHI-31	NE-24, PHI-24	4-1	Patriots
SB XL	PIT-17, SEA-14	PIT-21, SEA-10	5-1	Steelers
SB XLI	IND-35, CHI-27	IND-29, CHI-17	6-1	Colts
SB XLII	NE-27, NYG-21	NYG-17, NE-14	6-2	Giants
SB XLIII	PIT-14, ARI-12	PIT-27, ARI-23	7-2	Cardinals
SB XLIV	NO-37, IND-31	NO-31, IND-17	8-2	Colts
SB XLV	GB-31, PIT-30	GB-31, PIT-25	9-2	Packers
SB XLVI	NE-35, NYG-21	NYG-21, NE-17	9-3	Giants
SB XLVII	See Below	CBS – 6:30pm	?-?	49ers

For those who are not familiar with my method of prediction, the significance of the ‘1^st Half Team’ is that I always play the first half with the team that I want to win and the second half with the opposing team – when it comes to the Super Bowl, I have to have a rooting interest, even if I don’t like one team more than the other, I just pick one to root for.

This year, I chose the San Francisco 49ers. Yes, I backtracked on what I said just after conference championships. Ravens fans may be more annoying after a loss, but I just don’t want to see them happy, so I’ll be rooting for the 49ers even though I really don’t care which team wins.

Yesterday I previewed the game so I won’t waste your game day with anything else. ‘Like’ my blog’s Facebook page and follow me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl. Enjoy the Super Bowl and thanks so much for reading!

Puff’s Pick (via Madden NFL 13):

Baltimore Ravens – 17

San Francisco 49ers – 27

MVP: Patrick Willis