10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 15

The Patriots likely are the best team in the NFL right now.
Photo credit to sportslogos.net.

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On a side note, today (12/12/12) will be the last repetitive date for 88 years. Make a wish!

10.            Tagliabue Vacates Discipline from Saints Bounty Case

It is no wonder it took so long to get this whole process done. Tagliabue had to put together a 22-page report, of which I read nearly the entire thing and skimmed the rest. It was a drag, but it offered some light to his final decision.

Tagliabue made his decision primarily because he considers it to be one thing to talk about offering rewards and another thing to actually go out and execute, so to speak. No players were fined or suspended after the game(s) in question for on-field conduct, and so he felt that there was not a proper balance between on-field and off-field conduct when Commissioner Goodell made the initial decision.

“Congratulations to our players for having the suspensions vacated. Unfortunately, there are some things that can never be taken back.” Drew Brees, via Twitter @drewbrees

9.            Running Backs Suspended

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall has been suspended for this weeks contest against the Cowboys for “conduct detrimental to the team” after he failed to show up at Heinz Field for last Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. He had been told he would not suit up for the game, so how this conduct is detrimental to the team, I am not sure.

Out in San Francisco, Brandon Jacobs has been suspended for the remainder of the season for the same official reason. He has been complaining quite a bit about playing time this year, but I don’t know what he had expected his role would be considering the 49ers already had a good thing with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter.

8.            Playoff Hunt

The Redskins and Bengals are the first teams out in the NFC and AFC, respectively. The Redskins, however, seem much closer to getting in. With three games left, and a meeting with the Chiefs to go for the Colts, it is unlikely the Bengals can catch anyone but the Steelers, who have been shaky but a solid keep-away competitor. The Seahawks, meanwhile, look more and more like they will stay where they are, but with a game against the Packers this week, the Bears could lose and put Washington in a beat-Cleveland-and-you’re-in situation.

7.            Fantasy Disappointments

There were plenty of fantasy disappointments this week, so I’ll just list a few that stood out to me.

• Bryce Brown was everyone’s waiver wire baby after his two phenomenal weeks. I know he was mine. But he scored just one fantasy point this week. I know it was against Tampa Bay, the number one rush defense in the league, but one point after those two performances is ridiculously disappointing.
• I’m just going to put every Cardinals player right here after that 58-0 whooping.
• Christian Ponder scored just one fantasy point in a 21-14 win over the Bears. Of course, having Adrian Peterson makes this maybe a little more odd than disappointing.

6.            Fantasy Surprises

• David Wilson was not on any team’s roster in my league, so his 30-point outing against New Orleans went to waste.
• I know it was against the Cardinals, but 44 points for a defensive unit is ridiculous. Can credit for even 20 of that go to Seattle?
• Against the Falcons, a pretty good defense who forced three Peyton Manning interceptions in the first quarter of a game, Cam Newton put up 42 fantasy points!

5.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.

• Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

4.            Power Rankings

For the sake of space, I will list just the top 6 and the bottom 6 here. You can see the rest on NFL.com.

1. New England Patriots	27. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Houston Texans	28. Tennessee Titans
3. Atlanta Falcons	29. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Denver Broncos	30. Arizona Cardinals
5. San Francisco 49ers	31. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Green Bay Packers	32. Oakland Raiders

There were no huge jumps this week, but the Cardinals fell four spots and the Lions fell five after their losses to Seattle and Green Bay.

3.            Puff’s Rankings

I’ve taken the liberty of ranking every team in the NFL for myself. I ranked each team in a number of categories and then used a math formula to take each of them into consideration in my overall rankings of the teams. Here are my rankings heading into Week 15.

1. DEN (4.80)	9. CIN (7.90)	17. DET (9.04)	25. NO (10.84)
2. NE (5.17)	10. BAL (7.91)	18. StL (9.21)	26. BUF (10.96)
3. SF (5.41)	10. WAS (7.91)	19. TB (9.76)	27. PHI (11.26)
4. HOU (5.46)	12. CAR (7.93)	20. SD (9.80)	28. ARI (11.54)
5. SEA (6.27)	13. DAL (8.05)	21. IND (9.99)	29. TEN (11.83)
6. CHI (6.99)	14. ATL (8.09)	22. MIN (10.25)	30. KC (13.04)
7. NYG (7.05)	15. PIT (8.89)	23. NYJ (10.32)	31. JAC (13.16)
8. GB (7.47)	16. CLE (8.91)	24. MIA (10.72)	32. OAK (13.30)

Keep in mind this is essentially a ranking of where each team should be at this point in the season, based on various aspects of performance, with certain aspects weighted more heavily than others. Some teams have over- or under-achieved.

Feel free to ask about this, but please be clear that this is not necessarily how I would rank the teams, this is all math based.

2.            Green Bay Packers

The Packers, my pre-season Super Bowl pick, is back in the top-6 and is playing pretty well. They even spotted Detroit 14 points and a several-minute head start and the Lions couldn’t hold them off. This is a more dangerous team than it appears.

1.            New England Patriots

Meanwhile, the Patriots, my pre-season Super Bowl pick for the AFC, has claimed the top spot in the NFL.com Power Rankings, and rightfully so. The last several weeks, the Patriots seem to be the only sure thing in the NFL. After expecting a 15-1 season from them, I lost confidence quickly when they started 3-4, or maybe it wasn’t all that quickly. But seven wins later, my confidence is restored in them and no team should want to face them once January comes.

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 14 Early Games

Kirk Cousins got the call in the 4th quarter and kept the
Redskins in the first bubble spot in the NFC Playoff race.
Photo credit to The Washington Post.

A late start and an unexpectedly busy afternoon kept me from writing my usual Monday posts, so today I am writing (and publishing) this post and then splicing my regular second Monday post with my usual Tuesday post. On a side note, this is my 200^th post on this blog, so thank you to all you who keep coming back and reading my work!

Sunday’s early games saw several unexpected results. They also lent insight into what we may see in the postseason. The Falcons and Bears both lost to lesser division opponents Carolina and Minnesota. Pittsburgh, who seemed to be right back in the playoff picture, suffered an upset and major setback against San Diego, helped only by Cincinnati’s late collapse against Dallas and a mind-blowing comeback by the Redskins at home against Baltimore.

Buffalo played a close game at home against the Rams, but the playoff push was apparently enough to send St. Louis home with a win, unlike some other playoff contenders mentioned above.

Kansas City’s motivation seemed to only last a week as Cleveland ran all over them in a 30-7 romp. Worse yet for the Chiefs is the likely loss of Dwayne Bowe for the rest of the season, although I guess if ever there was a time when losing one of your best players to IR is acceptable, it would be in their current situation.

Indianapolis pulled out another come-from-behind win against Tennessee and is nearing a playoff birth. The Jets, meanwhile, put off their playoff elimination another week with a 17-10 win in Jacksonville.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, was seriously set back in a very close, very packed NFC wild-card race by losing 23-21 at home against Philadelphia in Nick Foles’ first win as a starter.

Washington kept pace with Dallas, who edged the Bengals in Cincinnati, by overcoming an 8-point deficit late in the fourth quarter with Kirk Cousins under center following a knee injury to RG3. Cousins overcame 2^nd & 20 following by an intentional grounding call against Griffin III with a 15-yard completion followed by an 11-yard touchdown strike to Pierre Garçon on a scramble. He then ran the ball in himself for the conversion. A huge defensive stand in overtime opened the door for a 60-yard punt return followed by a game-winning field goal by Kai Forbath. RG3 is not expected to miss much time as he was diagnosed with a knee sprain and is day-to-day, but I think the team and fan base would have been comfortable with Cousins leading the team if RG3 were to miss extended action.

The Falcons lost their second game of the season but still have a good chance to gain home-field advantage, as their closest competitor, San Francisco, is a game and a half back with three games left. The Bears loss to the Vikings was very costly as Green Bay’s later victory gave them control of the NFC North and puts a target on Chicago for the wild-card chase pack.

The Steelers loss did not lose them the sixth postseason spot in the AFC, but it puts the Jets just one game out with three games left, and the Jets have limped into the playoffs before only to upset better teams on the way to surprising AFC Championship appearances.

Check back later for my Sunday Football Afterword Deluxe for the four late games and the Monday Night matchup. Thanks for reading everyone!

10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 14

Andrew Luck is having one of the best rookie seasons of
all time. He has brought a quick turnaround to a 'spoiled' city.
Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

‘Like’ The All-Sports Crew on Facebook to keep up with updates! The All-Sports Crew will NOT air on WMUC Sports tonight. We hope to put a podcast out sometime this week, so look for updates on that.

10.            Bear Problems

If the Bears weren’t already in trouble, they certainly are now. Brian Urlacher hopes to be back for the playoffs, but he will sit out the rest of the regular season with a hamstring injury.

As if that weren’t bad enough, a shoulder injury from the Seahawks game has Tim Jennings’ status uncertain, receiver Earl Bennett is expected to be out against the Vikings, and Devin Hester is trying to come back from a concussion while Alshon Jeffery is coming back from a knee issue.

9.            Playoff Hunt

Houston can clinch their division with a win and a loss or tie by the Colts. Baltimore can win the AFC North crown with a win and losses by both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. New England and Denver have both clinched their divisions already.

In the NFC, Atlanta has clinched the NFC South. The other three divisions cannot be won this week, but San Francisco can clinch a playoff spot with a lot of help. They need a win, but they would also need Dallas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Washington to lose and St. Louis or Seattle to lose or tie.

The Bengals are the first team out in the AFC, with the Jets, Bills and Dolphins trailing them by two games. The Redskins are the first team out in the NFC with tiebreakers over Tampa Bay and Minnesota and the tiebreaker so far over Dallas, all of whom have the same 6-6 records as Washington.

8.            Fantasy Disappointments

There were plenty of fantasy disappointments this week, so I’ll just list a few that stood out to me.

• Tom Brady had his worst fantasy game of the season against Miami on Sunday, scoring just 12 points against a team he usually lights it up against.
• Drew Brees takes the cake, this week. Just 3 fantasy points in his five-interception, zero-touchdown performance against Atlanta. It was just his third sub-20 point game of the season, and his first with fewer than 16 points.

7.            Fantasy Surprises

• Donnie Avery hadn’t made much noise since the first two weeks of the season, but two touchdowns made for a nice 23.5 points in my fantasy league.
• Brady Quinn had not scored more than 4 points in a game this season. In fact, he only had 10 total fantasy points on the season. But the Chiefs played inspired on Sunday and Quinn was not immune has he threw his first two touchdowns of the season, topped 200 yards passing for the first time this season, and did not turn the ball over in a 19-point fantasy performance.
• Not really a surprise, but it is worth noting that Adrian Peterson had his second 30-point fantasy game of the season, his first game with 200 rushing yards this season, and his sixth consecutive game with 100 or more rushing yards.

6.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.

• Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
• Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)
• Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:30 p.m.)

5.            Power Rankings

For the sake of space, I will list just the top 6 and the bottom 6 here. You can see the rest on NFL.com.

1. Houston Texans	27. Carolina Panthers
2. Atlanta Falcons	28. Tennessee Titans
3. New England Patriots	29. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Denver Broncos	30. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. San Francisco 49ers	31. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Baltimore Ravens	32. Oakland Raiders

The Jets and Rams jumped four and five spots respectively while the Giants and Saints both fell four. Other than that the biggest difference is that Around The League now considers Oakland to be the worst in the NFL.

The Power Poll is a better representation of where the teams stack up, in my opinion. Check that out here.

4.            Puff’s Rankings

I’ve taken the liberty of ranking every team in the NFL for myself. I ranked each team in a number of categories and then used a math formula to take each of them into consideration in my overall rankings of the teams. Here are my rankings heading into Week 14.

1. HOU (4.350)	9. SEA (7.735)	17. ARI (9.235)	25. IND (11.385)
2. SF (5.630)	10. CIN (8.330)	18. SD (9.580)	26. BUF (11.990)
3. DEN (6.200)	11. BAL (8.340)	19. CAR (9.735)	27. PHI (12.280)
4. NE (6.315)	12. WAS (8.445)	20. StL (9.985)	28. MIA (12.505)
5. CHI (6.370)	13. PIT (8.570)	21. CLE (10.450)	29. KC (12.705)
6. NYG (6.625)	14. DET (8.855)	22. NO (10.775)	30. OAK (12.900)
7. ATL (6.935)	15. DAL (9.000)	23. NYJ (10.795)	31. TEN (13.275)
8. GB (7.155)	16. TB (9.210)	24. MIN (10.980)	32. JAC (13.505)

Keep in mind this is essentially a ranking of where each team should be at this point in the season, based on various aspects of performance, with certain aspects weighted more heavily than others. Some teams have over- or under-achieved.

Feel free to ask about this, but please be clear that this is not necessarily how I would rank the teams, this is all math based.

3.            Atlanta Falcons

Well, the Falcons beat the Saints, so they have that going for them. They have already clinched the NFC South, but I don’t give that all that much merit. The defense is carrying the team, but the fact that they needed five takeaways to barely win against New Orleans tells me that this team is not one that is ready to perform in the playoffs against the best in the NFC.

2.            Houston Texans

The Texans are undoubtedly the best team in the NFL right now. They had a slip up against Green Bay that had everyone wondering if the Texans would collapse, especially with the loss of Brian Cushing. Wade Phillips has done a fantastic job with that defense and some of you may have even forgotten Cushing is out until I mentioned it just now. Their offense is no slouch, either. Unlike the Ravens, who also have an incredibly talented running back, the Texans use theirs. Also unlike the Ravens, the Texans actually have a quarterback that can drive them down the field consistently.

1.            MVP Race

I read an interesting piece by Adam Schein on NFL.com yesterday that really got me thinking. Schein has the honor of being one of the people who vote for who gets various AP Awards in the NFL, including MVP. His choice, right now, is Andrew Luck. It is easy to dismiss him right off the bat, for being a rookie if for no other reason, but he brings up a great point.

Of course, if we throw him into the mix we have to eliminate Peyton Manning – there is no guarantee that the Broncos couldn’t have a similar record since their three losses came against terrific competition and their wins haven’t really. You also have to eliminate Tom Brady – we’ve seen what a bad quarterback can do with that team with Belichick at the helm. And Adrian Peterson is also eliminated, for reasons other than the Vikings not likely being in the playoffs – Peterson hasn’t made a big impact on the Colts record, while Luck has.

Five game winning drives this season by the rookie, five of them. The Colts are almost certainly a top-10 draft pick team without Luck. With him, they are a very likely playoff team and only two games behind the Texans. If the rest of the voters can get over the fact that he’s a rookie, Andrew Luck is the obvious choice. Of course, maybe Robert Griffin III would then also have a case.