Wednesday, December 12, 2012

10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 15

The Patriots likely are the best team in the NFL right now.
Photo credit to sportslogos.net.

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On a side note, today (12/12/12) will be the last repetitive date for 88 years. Make a wish!


10.            Tagliabue Vacates Discipline from Saints Bounty Case

It is no wonder it took so long to get this whole process done. Tagliabue had to put together a 22-page report, of which I read nearly the entire thing and skimmed the rest. It was a drag, but it offered some light to his final decision.

Tagliabue made his decision primarily because he considers it to be one thing to talk about offering rewards and another thing to actually go out and execute, so to speak. No players were fined or suspended after the game(s) in question for on-field conduct, and so he felt that there was not a proper balance between on-field and off-field conduct when Commissioner Goodell made the initial decision.

“Congratulations to our players for having the suspensions vacated. Unfortunately, there are some things that can never be taken back.” Drew Brees, via Twitter @drewbrees

9.            Running Backs Suspended

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall has been suspended for this weeks contest against the Cowboys for “conduct detrimental to the team” after he failed to show up at Heinz Field for last Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. He had been told he would not suit up for the game, so how this conduct is detrimental to the team, I am not sure.

Out in San Francisco, Brandon Jacobs has been suspended for the remainder of the season for the same official reason. He has been complaining quite a bit about playing time this year, but I don’t know what he had expected his role would be considering the 49ers already had a good thing with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter.

8.            Playoff Hunt

The Redskins and Bengals are the first teams out in the NFC and AFC, respectively. The Redskins, however, seem much closer to getting in. With three games left, and a meeting with the Chiefs to go for the Colts, it is unlikely the Bengals can catch anyone but the Steelers, who have been shaky but a solid keep-away competitor. The Seahawks, meanwhile, look more and more like they will stay where they are, but with a game against the Packers this week, the Bears could lose and put Washington in a beat-Cleveland-and-you’re-in situation.

7.            Fantasy Disappointments

There were plenty of fantasy disappointments this week, so I’ll just list a few that stood out to me.
  • Bryce Brown was everyone’s waiver wire baby after his two phenomenal weeks. I know he was mine. But he scored just one fantasy point this week. I know it was against Tampa Bay, the number one rush defense in the league, but one point after those two performances is ridiculously disappointing.
  • I’m just going to put every Cardinals player right here after that 58-0 whooping.
  • Christian Ponder scored just one fantasy point in a 21-14 win over the Bears. Of course, having Adrian Peterson makes this maybe a little more odd than disappointing.

6.            Fantasy Surprises
  • David Wilson was not on any team’s roster in my league, so his 30-point outing against New Orleans went to waste.
  • I know it was against the Cardinals, but 44 points for a defensive unit is ridiculous. Can credit for even 20 of that go to Seattle?
  • Against the Falcons, a pretty good defense who forced three Peyton Manning interceptions in the first quarter of a game, Cam Newton put up 42 fantasy points!

5.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.
  • Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
  • Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
  • New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
  • Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
  • San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

4.            Power Rankings

For the sake of space, I will list just the top 6 and the bottom 6 here. You can see the rest on NFL.com.

1. New England Patriots
27. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Houston Texans
28. Tennessee Titans
3. Atlanta Falcons
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Denver Broncos
30. Arizona Cardinals
5. San Francisco 49ers
31. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Green Bay Packers
32. Oakland Raiders

There were no huge jumps this week, but the Cardinals fell four spots and the Lions fell five after their losses to Seattle and Green Bay.

3.            Puff’s Rankings

I’ve taken the liberty of ranking every team in the NFL for myself. I ranked each team in a number of categories and then used a math formula to take each of them into consideration in my overall rankings of the teams. Here are my rankings heading into Week 15.

1. DEN (4.80)
9. CIN (7.90)
17. DET (9.04)
25. NO (10.84)
2. NE (5.17)
10. BAL (7.91)
18. StL (9.21)
26. BUF (10.96)
3. SF (5.41)
10. WAS (7.91)
19. TB (9.76)
27. PHI (11.26)
4. HOU (5.46)
12. CAR (7.93)
20. SD (9.80)
28. ARI (11.54)
5. SEA (6.27)
13. DAL (8.05)
21. IND (9.99)
29. TEN (11.83)
6. CHI (6.99)
14. ATL (8.09)
22. MIN (10.25)
30. KC (13.04)
7. NYG (7.05)
15. PIT (8.89)
23. NYJ (10.32)
31. JAC (13.16)
8. GB (7.47)
16. CLE (8.91)
24. MIA (10.72)
32. OAK (13.30)

Keep in mind this is essentially a ranking of where each team should be at this point in the season, based on various aspects of performance, with certain aspects weighted more heavily than others. Some teams have over- or under-achieved.

Feel free to ask about this, but please be clear that this is not necessarily how I would rank the teams, this is all math based.

2.            Green Bay Packers

The Packers, my pre-season Super Bowl pick, is back in the top-6 and is playing pretty well. They even spotted Detroit 14 points and a several-minute head start and the Lions couldn’t hold them off. This is a more dangerous team than it appears.

1.            New England Patriots

Meanwhile, the Patriots, my pre-season Super Bowl pick for the AFC, has claimed the top spot in the NFL.com Power Rankings, and rightfully so. The last several weeks, the Patriots seem to be the only sure thing in the NFL. After expecting a 15-1 season from them, I lost confidence quickly when they started 3-4, or maybe it wasn’t all that quickly. But seven wins later, my confidence is restored in them and no team should want to face them once January comes.

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