Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Puff’s Points, Conference Championships


Most of the NFL's pocket passers are entering "old age," with just a few
young guns roaming. We may not see them again on this stage for a while.

Cory Puffett

In less than three weeks there will be just one team celebrating victory. Today, there are four that have finished their celebrations and now look ahead to Sunday.

In the NFC, we have division rivals with young mobile quarterbacks, veteran power running backs and stingy defenses.

In the AFC, old rivals square off once again, the last great ones in a strain of quarterback we rarely see anymore. Brady and Manning will duel for the fourth time in the postseason as they lead two teams that have faced and overcome adversity all year.

I will have plenty more to write and say about those two matchups later in the week. First, let’s get to my thoughts from the past weekend, both in the playoffs and around the rest of the NFL.

1. RGIII-va

I’ve been all over Robert Griffin III this year, voicing my concern and irritation with his apparent “diva” attitude.

On Monday, one of Griffin’s Facebook posts popped up all over Twitter. ESPN and NFL.com then ran stories about it. The status concerned fans’ concerns about his large number of commercials, the sleeve and glove he wears in games, and even his seeming “all about me” attitude.

But that status was posted on Friday. And even to me it didn’t seem out of line. Sure it was defensive, but I can’t blame him for wanting to issue a short statement to his critics.

News stories are supposed to be timely. Three days after the fact isn’t “timely,” not to me at least. And if it isn’t a news story, leave it for the tabloids. We’re in the midst of a very exciting postseason. We don’t need Robert to be in the headlines. Find something better to write about, people.

2. Eagles’ Streak Ends

For four straight seasons, the team that faced Philadelphia in their home opener has gone on to win the Super Bowl. This year it was the San Diego Chargers that played the first regular season game in Lincoln Financial Field.

San Diego was eliminated on Sunday, ending the Eagles’ four-year run of luck for their opening day visitors.

Speaking of streaks ending, the Redskins also had one that will end this season. They had beaten the last three Super Bowl champions during the regular season that they won. Washington beat the Baltimore Ravens last regular season, the New York Giants twice the season before that and the Green Bay Packers in 2010.

If the Broncos or 49ers win the Super Bowl this year, the Redskins streak of playing the eventual Super Bowl champion every season since 2006 will continue. You have to love meaningless stats.

3. Another Coach Hired

The Washington Redskins announced last week that Jay Gruden will be their man, signing the first-time NFL head coach to a five-year contract. That followed a couple other head coaching announcements across the league.

With San Diego now out of the playoffs, the Tennessee Titans wasted no time in announcing Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as their next head coach.

Coach Whisenhunt last held a head coaching position in Arizona from 2007-2012. He took the Cardinals to the franchise’s first Super Bowl after the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at quarterback. They won the NFC West again in 2009 and lost in the divisional round of the playoffs before winning just five games in two of the next three seasons.

Despite his poor record in five years as Arizona’s head coach, Whisenhunt is very well respected throughout the league.

4. Familiar Faces

The New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers are both making their third consecutive conference title game appearance. In both cases, a lot of credit goes to the coaches.

Bill Belichick turned the New England Patriots into the dynasty of the 2000s. The team had some success in the late 90’s after Robert Kraft took ownership of the team, but three Super Bowl titles in four years cleared the 90’s out of sight and out of mind.

Though it’s been nearly a decade since New England last hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, they’ve been a mainstay at the top of the AFC, and it’s thanks in large part to Belichick’s ability to absorb losses and keep the ship intact.

Jim Harbaugh is quickly gaining recognition as one of the league’s elite head coaches, and he is in just his third year. The former quarterback is the first head coach in the Super Bowl era to take his team to a conference championship game in each of his first three seasons. It becomes even more remarkable given the 49ers’ status as an NFC West cellar-dweller before his arrival.

It’s a few years early, but if things keep progressing as they have, the 49ers might well be known as a dynasty not only from the 80s, but in the 2010s, as well.

5. The Rematches Continue

Three of four wild card games were regular season rematches. Then three of four divisional playoff games were rematches from the regular season.

The trend continues this week as both conference title games feature teams that played each other in the regular season, twice in the case of NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle.

So far, the winner of the regular season matchup is 3-2, or 3-3 if you include only the most recent regular season meeting since Denver and San Diego split their regular season series.

New England beat Denver in Foxboro less than two months ago. The Broncos built a sizable halftime lead off of some New England turnovers and a couple nice drives by the offense, but even with the wind at his back Peyton Manning could not keep the ball away from the Patriots and Tom Brady led his team back in the third quarter and ultimately won by three.

The 49ers and Seahawks split their regular season series, Seattle blowing out San Francisco in Week 2 at CenturyLink before losing a close one at Candlestick late in the season. Colin Kaepernick has yet to overcome the 12th Man and I’m not holding me breath that it will happen this week.

6. Experience vs. Youth

This storyline is going to dominate the two weeks leading into Super Bowl XLVIII, so let me be the first to point out that no matter who wins this weekend’s games, the Super Bowl will see a veteran traditional pocket passer on one sideline and a young gunslinger who won’t hesitate to scramble your defense to death on the other.

It will be an exciting and rare opportunity to see two eras, two leagues almost, clash at the highest level. Even if it means Tom Brady lifting a fourth Lombardi, I have to say that I’m hoping the traditional style wins out. We may not see a quarterback of that breed playing on this stage again for a long time.

7. Power Rankings

Yeah, I know, I couldn’t come up with three other interesting things to write about that didn’t involve previewing this weekend’s games. And I’m saving that for Thursday.

Last week only one team beat a team ranked higher than them in my power rankings, and that was New England, but their ranking measurement was less than 0.02 points worse than Indianapolis, so I’m pretty pleased with how they turned out.

I’ve recalculated my rankings for the four teams that remain, so here are my conference championship power rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks (1.102)
2. San Francisco 49ers (1.405)
3. Denver Broncos (1.545)
4. New England Patriots (1.827)

So based on these numbers, we should expect to see both home teams win. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it happens on the NFC side. It’s a little more dicey in the AFC.

Tomorrow I will write about the four remaining teams and their histories in the conference championship. Thursday I will preview both games and my official predictions will come on Friday.

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