Monday, August 6, 2012

2012-13 Postseason Predictions, Part III: NFC Playoff Picture


My predictions for the AFC have already been posted, so here are my NFC Playoff predictions. This post will include my Super Bowl XLVII prediction.

NFC Postseason

1.            Green Bay Packers (13-3) – NFC North Champion, Home Field Advantage

The Packers stumbled in the playoffs last year in a game I actually predicted them to lose. But I don’t think that was a foreshadowing of future troubles for this team. I don’t think they’ll make a long undefeated run this year, but that may make this an even better 13-3 than their 15-1 record was last year. They won’t feel the same pressure and they will enter the postseason much more relaxed. But this team is just as good as they were last year and the only thing that I see keeping them from the top of this conference is multiple catastrophic injuries.

2.            San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – NFC West Champion, 1st Round Bye

This team’s defense is what gives me some level of confidence in this pick. I am a bit nervous about their offense. I liked their additions of Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham this offseason; Jacobs will give the 49ers a legitimate backup they can turn to in order to keep Frank Gore well rested, but it remains to be seen how much Manningham will be able to do, and it has nothing to do with him. Last year Alex Smith was good - not very good, not great, just good. What he did very well was limit turnovers, but with the confidence he almost certainly gained from the team’s conference championship appearance, will he take more chances this year? If he does, expect more interceptions, and that could keep San Francisco from the number two spot in the conference. Still, I don’t think any other team in the division can touch them, so they’ll still get in the playoffs regardless.

3.            Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – NFC East Champion

They may still consider themselves the ‘Dream Team,’ but while I do think they’ll make some noise this year, I don’t think they will sprint away with the division. This is a team full of athleticism. Last year I saw what I repeatedly called a lack of talent. Clearly every player on the team knows how to play football, but they could not seem to find a way to play as one unit until the latter part of the season, and I consider the ability to work as one with your teammates as the number one indicator of a high level of football talent. Considering how they closed the season, and the athleticism present on this team, they should find their way into the postseason.

4.            Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – NFC South Champion

I think the Saints will do well considering what they are going up against this year, but I also think the Falcons will take advantage of whatever they can to pull out the division championship. I’m still waiting for Matt Ryan to ditch the ‘Ice’ moniker, but they still have so much talent on defense and around Ryan on offense that I really think they can get it done.

5.            Detroit Lions (11-5) – 2nd Place NFC North, Wild Card

This year will be an interesting one for Detroit. With all the offseason arrests this year, the Lions were hit the hardest. They even cut a player after being arrested for the second time since the 2011-12 season ended. What keeps them among the best for me is Jim Schwartz. He has really brought that team out of the depths of Detroit and into the limelight and I think that within the next 5 years he should have this franchise making it’s first ever Super Bowl appearance.

6.            New Orleans Saints (9-7) – 2nd Place NFC South, Wild Card

Picking the Saints actually wasn’t as difficult a decision as some might think. I certainly was not going to give the Cowboys the nod. They didn’t really show me anything last season to suggest that they could make the run this year, so they have a lot to prove to me before I doubt them any less. I think the Bears could have a nice run, but it is very tough for a third team in a single division to make the postseason, especially when both of the other teams win 11+ games and you don’t manage 10. Drew Brees was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2011 for good reason. I truly felt that he should have been the MVP last year. There are so many offensive weapons on this team, and even though Vilma will be gone for at least 8 games if not the full season, the defense is still good and I am confident that Steve Spagnuolo is going to be fantastic for that unit.

Rest of the Conference

I already mentioned the Cowboys and Bears and why I don’t think they will make it. The Bears have some things going for them, including Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. The Cowboys could certainly prove me wrong, and they are my third favorite to do so. I think the Giants are more likely to sneak in than the Cowboys. They have a very good team, and last year Eli more than proved that he was not crazy to call himself elite. I love the Redskins, but they are still at least a year, probably two years, from being a pre-season contender for a postseason appearance.

The Vikings have Jared Allen, but do we even know for sure who their starting quarterback will be? I mean, sure everyone assumed Christian Ponder will be the man, but what about Webb? He certainly seemed to earn some consideration, but I don’t think either is the man to carry this team to the next level.

I cannot imagine the Panthers will not improving this year, but will they claw their way into the playoffs? I don’t think this will be the season, but they will win a couple more games than they did in 2011. I like the Bucs’ hire of Greg Schiano from Rutgers but, as with most college coaches, I think he will struggle more than most rookie players during his first year or two. The five wins I gave them might even be considered generous by season’s end.

To call anyone else in the NFC West a serious contender is ludicrous. The Rams have the best chance assuming Bradford and Jackson stay healthy, but mostly because of Jeff Fisher. The Seahawks will continue to be pretenders, but not even good ones this year. As for the Cardinals, Kolb is going to be feeling that injured rib for the rest of the season, and Skelton will not be able to take this team anywhere, but then I didn’t think Kolb would be able to either – after all, I did predict their 5-11 record before the Hall of Fame Game began.

Preliminary Playoff Predictions

This is the first year that I have done this. In my last post I made my preliminary predictions for the AFC Playoffs. This one will have my predictions for the NFC Playoffs and for the Super Bowl, which will feature the New England Patriots, who I chose to win the AFC Conference Championship at the end of my last post.

NFC Wild Card

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

It seems that when teams have a family member of an important person within the organization pass away, their level of play elevates in the most important games. With Coach Reid’s son passing Sunday morning, you can bet the season will be dedicated to him and to Andy Reid. The Saints, meanwhile, will be playing without Sean Payton, which will make a big difference in a playoff game.

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have been nearly impossible to beat at home the past two regular seasons, having lost only 3 times over that span – twice to the Saints and once last year to the 15-1 Green Bay Packers. I don’t think they’ll do any worse this year and Detroit will lose their postseason opener to a NFC South opponent for the second year in a row.

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers

The Pack have had the Falcons number the past couple seasons, and playing at home will only greaten their advantage.

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Ditto on what I said above for the Eagles, and as I also said above about the 49ers, I could see a few mistakes on chances taken by their quarterback coming back to haunt them in a game like this.

NFC Championship Game

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers

I hate to pick the top seed from both conferences to go to the Super Bowl. However, again as I said before, this could be a Packers team playing with much less pressure on their shoulders this year. They are no longer the defending Super Bowl Champions; they also won’t be undefeated for nearly as long this year as they were last season.

Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, LA

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

Yes, I know the Packers would not be playing at home, but the NFC is the designated home team in odd-numbers Super Bowls, so that explains that.

Part of me really thinks the Packers could pull this one out, and they really could. But I love NFL history and, though I probably go back to the leagues history a bit more than is healthy, I have to point out that Brady has not lost a Conference Championship Game or a Super Bowl against a team quarterbacked by someone with a last name other than Manning. Of course, he also has not won a Super Bowl since 2004-05 so maybe I just cannot predict this game so early. But let’s just go ahead and note that my pre-season Super Bowl favorite is the Pats over the Pack.

Thanks again to all of you who read this. Hopefully you thought it was good, and if so be sure to recommend my blog to your friends. You can also follow my blog’s Twitter page and ‘like’ its Facebook profile by seeing the links on the side of this page. Enjoy the 2012-13 NFL Season, and be sure to check back for updates, which will be posted to both my Twitter and Facebook pages.

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