Sunday evening, shortly before the Hall of Fame Game opened
action in the 2012 NFL season, I made predictions for end-of-season standings
across the league. Today my focus is on the AFC postseason, so let’s get to it.
AFC Postseason
1. New England Patriots (15-1) – AFC East
Champion, Home Field Advantage
This was a fairly easy pick for me, maybe a bit too easy. To
make my season standings predictions, I predicted the outcome of every game of
the NFL season (of course, those predictions may not be the same as all my
predictions during the season). As I
passed the halfway point of the season and the Patriots were still undefeated,
I began looking to give them losses,
but couldn’t justify more than one. The only thing that may hold them back is
that they seem to be over-stacked at certain positions, especially tight end.
Although, considering the way they used the position last year, that might not
be a disadvantage.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) – AFC North
Champion, 1st Round Bye
Ravens or Steelers? That is the biggest question in my mind
as we head into this season. Which one is going to pull out a division that
sent three teams to the postseason in 2011? I think the Steelers have the edge,
and I’ll give the main reason in just a few moments. The Steelers could just as
easily fall out of contention this year, but there is something about this team
that screams out that they will be around for a few more years as serious
contenders within this league. They are just two years removed from a Super
Bowl appearance, and it took another miraculous installment of Tebow Time to
pave their exit from the 2011 NFL playoffs. Don’t expect them to drop off the
face of the league anytime soon.
3. Houston Texans (12-4) – AFC South
Champion
Last year we saw how dangerous a team the Texans can be, and
we saw them complete their playoff push with an inexperienced rookie under
center. I really like T.J. Yates and think he could be a very good starter one
day, but you have to be scared to face this team with Matt Schaub back from his
season ending foot injury that placed him on IR with seven weeks left in the
2011 regular season. This may not be a great team, but with the division they
are in, I have no doubt they can win 12 games, and less than 10 wins would make
this a failure of a season for Houston in my mind.
4. Denver Broncos (10-6) – AFC West
Champion
It’s hard to count out Peyton Manning, whether he is at full
strength or not. He is such a smart quarterback that he could be half as strong
as he was before his injury and he would still be one of the top 5 quarterbacks
in the league today. But besides Manning, this is a team that made the playoffs
in 2011-12 with Tim Tebow bringing them back from a 1-4 start to the season.
Whether Tebow is ‘baby Jesus’ or not, if that team believed that Tebow could
bring them back from that kind of start, imagine what they believe Manning can
do with them. I don’t have them starting off well (I don’t think they’ll win a
game until week 4), but they have such an easy schedule in the second half of
the season that a playoff appearance should be easy.
5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4) – 2nd Place AFC
North, Wild Card
So, why did I pick the Steelers over the Ravens in the AFC
North? Ultimately it came down to the early season. I think there are teams,
including the Bengals, who may be able to pull of upsets against the Ravens
early in the season. It doesn’t help the Ravens’ cause that Terrell Suggs, the
2011 Defensive Player of the Year, will be out for a while. He claims he’ll be
back in November, but who knows if he’ll be back at all. It could be a much
bigger hit than many Ravens fans realize. I do think they have a good chance to
pull out the same record as Pittsburgh, but it will be the division record that
forces Baltimore to play during the first weekend of the postseason.
6. San Diego Chargers (10-6) – 2nd Place
AFC West, Wild Card
The Chargers are the absolute opposite of the Broncos. I
have them rushing out to a 7-2 start to the season before falling apart down
the stretch, which seems to be their M.O. This team is too good, and has been
together too long, to continue missing the playoffs. I have to believe they can
make it. Unfortunately, the team’s history isn’t going to give them any
confidence, and their head coach hasn’t seemed to be the best for them
recently, so they will have a lot to fight against.
Rest of the Conference
I honestly don’t have one this year for the AFC. The six
teams I’ve already named should be the favorites to be playing in January.
There are teams who made strides last year, like the Bills and Dolphins, who
could certainly upset my predictions, but neither has a schedule particularly
conducive to that. The Jets could be much better than I predict them to be, but
Sanchez isn’t going to take them anywhere and, as much as I like the guy, I
find it difficult that Tebow can be as miraculous as he was in 2011, so I don’t
think a wild card spot will go to an AFC East team.
I really hope Andy Dalton doesn’t fall into the
all-to-common sophomore setbacks, but the Bengals don’t have an exceptionally
easy schedule either. The Browns won’t do much either.
I am confident that neither the Jaguars nor the Titans will
do much this year, though of the two the Titans would be more likely to
surprise me. The big question mark is the Colts. They don’t have a lot to love,
but who knows if Andrew Luck could come in and be as good or better than Cam
Newton was next year, and I’m confident that the Colts have more to offer than
the Panthers did last year.
The Chiefs have no prayer in my mind. The only team in the
entire AFC that I’m seriously nervous that I underscored is the Raiders. I
don’t particularly like them as postseason contenders, but they are the one
team that I think could shake things up in the conference.
Preliminary Playoff
Predictions
I’ve never done this in past years; I have always waited
until the playoffs began to make predictions. I will still make those
predictions weekly when the time comes, but I wanted to try something new this
year so I will make preliminary predictions. My Super Bowl XLVII predictions
will be at the end of my NFC Playoffs post.
AFC Wild Card
San Diego Chargers @ Houston
Texans
The Chargers have a little more experience in games of this
nature, but assuming their key players remain healthy, I have little doubt that
the Texans will be the overwhelming favorite in this matchup. I don’t expect
the Chargers offense to be the most consistent entity, and I think that will
heavily favor a Texans defense that might be even better than they were last
year, considering Wade Phillips has had an entire offseason to work with it
this time around. I also believe the Chargers defense will be no match for a
healthy Texans offense.
Baltimore Ravens
@ Denver Broncos
This is a surprisingly tough matchup to pick. Peyton has had
Baltimore’s number throughout his career, but this would come against a
potentially stronger Ravens team than any he’s faced before, and it would come
with a Broncos team that he had less than a year to become comfortable with.
AFC Divisional
Playoffs
Baltimore Ravens @ New
England Patriots
If Suggs is healthy by January, this becomes a very
interesting matchup, but without him, I don’t see the Ravens defense as one
that can easily slow down New England, and certainly not in a game played in
Foxboro.
Houston Texans @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Not everyone feels the same way I do, but this is just how
much I like the Texans chances this year. I think the Steelers will be a better
team this year than they were last year, but I think they’ll still be
inconsistent enough for a strong Texans team to take advantage.
AFC Championship Game
Houston Texans @ New
England Patriots
Like when I was making my regular season standings
predictions, I want to give the win to Houston here. But I can’t justify the
Patriots losing, even to a strong, healthy Texans team, and certainly not at
home in Foxboro against a dome team.
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