2012-13 Postseason Predictions, Part III: NFC Playoff Picture

My predictions for the AFC have already been posted, so here are my NFC Playoff predictions. This post will include my Super Bowl XLVII prediction.

NFC Postseason

1.            Green Bay Packers (13-3) – NFC North Champion, Home Field Advantage

The Packers stumbled in the playoffs last year in a game I actually predicted them to lose. But I don’t think that was a foreshadowing of future troubles for this team. I don’t think they’ll make a long undefeated run this year, but that may make this an even better 13-3 than their 15-1 record was last year. They won’t feel the same pressure and they will enter the postseason much more relaxed. But this team is just as good as they were last year and the only thing that I see keeping them from the top of this conference is multiple catastrophic injuries.

2.            San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – NFC West Champion, 1st Round Bye

This team’s defense is what gives me some level of confidence in this pick. I am a bit nervous about their offense. I liked their additions of Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham this offseason; Jacobs will give the 49ers a legitimate backup they can turn to in order to keep Frank Gore well rested, but it remains to be seen how much Manningham will be able to do, and it has nothing to do with him. Last year Alex Smith was good - not very good, not great, just good. What he did very well was limit turnovers, but with the confidence he almost certainly gained from the team’s conference championship appearance, will he take more chances this year? If he does, expect more interceptions, and that could keep San Francisco from the number two spot in the conference. Still, I don’t think any other team in the division can touch them, so they’ll still get in the playoffs regardless.

3.            Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – NFC East Champion

They may still consider themselves the ‘Dream Team,’ but while I do think they’ll make some noise this year, I don’t think they will sprint away with the division. This is a team full of athleticism. Last year I saw what I repeatedly called a lack of talent. Clearly every player on the team knows how to play football, but they could not seem to find a way to play as one unit until the latter part of the season, and I consider the ability to work as one with your teammates as the number one indicator of a high level of football talent. Considering how they closed the season, and the athleticism present on this team, they should find their way into the postseason.

4.            Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – NFC South Champion

I think the Saints will do well considering what they are going up against this year, but I also think the Falcons will take advantage of whatever they can to pull out the division championship. I’m still waiting for Matt Ryan to ditch the ‘Ice’ moniker, but they still have so much talent on defense and around Ryan on offense that I really think they can get it done.

5.            Detroit Lions (11-5) – 2nd Place NFC North, Wild Card

This year will be an interesting one for Detroit. With all the offseason arrests this year, the Lions were hit the hardest. They even cut a player after being arrested for the second time since the 2011-12 season ended. What keeps them among the best for me is Jim Schwartz. He has really brought that team out of the depths of Detroit and into the limelight and I think that within the next 5 years he should have this franchise making it’s first ever Super Bowl appearance.

6.            New Orleans Saints (9-7) – 2nd Place NFC South, Wild Card

Picking the Saints actually wasn’t as difficult a decision as some might think. I certainly was not going to give the Cowboys the nod. They didn’t really show me anything last season to suggest that they could make the run this year, so they have a lot to prove to me before I doubt them any less. I think the Bears could have a nice run, but it is very tough for a third team in a single division to make the postseason, especially when both of the other teams win 11+ games and you don’t manage 10. Drew Brees was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2011 for good reason. I truly felt that he should have been the MVP last year. There are so many offensive weapons on this team, and even though Vilma will be gone for at least 8 games if not the full season, the defense is still good and I am confident that Steve Spagnuolo is going to be fantastic for that unit.

Rest of the Conference

I already mentioned the Cowboys and Bears and why I don’t think they will make it. The Bears have some things going for them, including Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. The Cowboys could certainly prove me wrong, and they are my third favorite to do so. I think the Giants are more likely to sneak in than the Cowboys. They have a very good team, and last year Eli more than proved that he was not crazy to call himself elite. I love the Redskins, but they are still at least a year, probably two years, from being a pre-season contender for a postseason appearance.

The Vikings have Jared Allen, but do we even know for sure who their starting quarterback will be? I mean, sure everyone assumed Christian Ponder will be the man, but what about Webb? He certainly seemed to earn some consideration, but I don’t think either is the man to carry this team to the next level.

I cannot imagine the Panthers will not improving this year, but will they claw their way into the playoffs? I don’t think this will be the season, but they will win a couple more games than they did in 2011. I like the Bucs’ hire of Greg Schiano from Rutgers but, as with most college coaches, I think he will struggle more than most rookie players during his first year or two. The five wins I gave them might even be considered generous by season’s end.

To call anyone else in the NFC West a serious contender is ludicrous. The Rams have the best chance assuming Bradford and Jackson stay healthy, but mostly because of Jeff Fisher. The Seahawks will continue to be pretenders, but not even good ones this year. As for the Cardinals, Kolb is going to be feeling that injured rib for the rest of the season, and Skelton will not be able to take this team anywhere, but then I didn’t think Kolb would be able to either – after all, I did predict their 5-11 record before the Hall of Fame Game began.

Preliminary Playoff Predictions

This is the first year that I have done this. In my last post I made my preliminary predictions for the AFC Playoffs. This one will have my predictions for the NFC Playoffs and for the Super Bowl, which will feature the New England Patriots, who I chose to win the AFC Conference Championship at the end of my last post.

NFC Wild Card

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

It seems that when teams have a family member of an important person within the organization pass away, their level of play elevates in the most important games. With Coach Reid’s son passing Sunday morning, you can bet the season will be dedicated to him and to Andy Reid. The Saints, meanwhile, will be playing without Sean Payton, which will make a big difference in a playoff game.

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have been nearly impossible to beat at home the past two regular seasons, having lost only 3 times over that span – twice to the Saints and once last year to the 15-1 Green Bay Packers. I don’t think they’ll do any worse this year and Detroit will lose their postseason opener to a NFC South opponent for the second year in a row.

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers

The Pack have had the Falcons number the past couple seasons, and playing at home will only greaten their advantage.

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers

Ditto on what I said above for the Eagles, and as I also said above about the 49ers, I could see a few mistakes on chances taken by their quarterback coming back to haunt them in a game like this.

NFC Championship Game

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers

I hate to pick the top seed from both conferences to go to the Super Bowl. However, again as I said before, this could be a Packers team playing with much less pressure on their shoulders this year. They are no longer the defending Super Bowl Champions; they also won’t be undefeated for nearly as long this year as they were last season.

Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, LA

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

Yes, I know the Packers would not be playing at home, but the NFC is the designated home team in odd-numbers Super Bowls, so that explains that.

Part of me really thinks the Packers could pull this one out, and they really could. But I love NFL history and, though I probably go back to the leagues history a bit more than is healthy, I have to point out that Brady has not lost a Conference Championship Game or a Super Bowl against a team quarterbacked by someone with a last name other than Manning. Of course, he also has not won a Super Bowl since 2004-05 so maybe I just cannot predict this game so early. But let’s just go ahead and note that my pre-season Super Bowl favorite is the Pats over the Pack.

Thanks again to all of you who read this. Hopefully you thought it was good, and if so be sure to recommend my blog to your friends. You can also follow my blog’s Twitter page and ‘like’ its Facebook profile by seeing the links on the side of this page. Enjoy the 2012-13 NFL Season, and be sure to check back for updates, which will be posted to both my Twitter and Facebook pages.

2012-13 Postseason Predictions, Part II: AFC Playoff Picture

Sunday evening, shortly before the Hall of Fame Game opened action in the 2012 NFL season, I made predictions for end-of-season standings across the league. Today my focus is on the AFC postseason, so let’s get to it.

AFC Postseason

1.            New England Patriots (15-1) – AFC East Champion, Home Field Advantage

This was a fairly easy pick for me, maybe a bit too easy. To make my season standings predictions, I predicted the outcome of every game of the NFL season (of course, those predictions may not be the same as all my predictions during the season). As I passed the halfway point of the season and the Patriots were still undefeated, I began looking to give them losses, but couldn’t justify more than one. The only thing that may hold them back is that they seem to be over-stacked at certain positions, especially tight end. Although, considering the way they used the position last year, that might not be a disadvantage.

2.            Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) – AFC North Champion, 1st Round Bye

Ravens or Steelers? That is the biggest question in my mind as we head into this season. Which one is going to pull out a division that sent three teams to the postseason in 2011? I think the Steelers have the edge, and I’ll give the main reason in just a few moments. The Steelers could just as easily fall out of contention this year, but there is something about this team that screams out that they will be around for a few more years as serious contenders within this league. They are just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, and it took another miraculous installment of Tebow Time to pave their exit from the 2011 NFL playoffs. Don’t expect them to drop off the face of the league anytime soon.

3.            Houston Texans (12-4) – AFC South Champion

Last year we saw how dangerous a team the Texans can be, and we saw them complete their playoff push with an inexperienced rookie under center. I really like T.J. Yates and think he could be a very good starter one day, but you have to be scared to face this team with Matt Schaub back from his season ending foot injury that placed him on IR with seven weeks left in the 2011 regular season. This may not be a great team, but with the division they are in, I have no doubt they can win 12 games, and less than 10 wins would make this a failure of a season for Houston in my mind.

4.            Denver Broncos (10-6) – AFC West Champion

It’s hard to count out Peyton Manning, whether he is at full strength or not. He is such a smart quarterback that he could be half as strong as he was before his injury and he would still be one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league today. But besides Manning, this is a team that made the playoffs in 2011-12 with Tim Tebow bringing them back from a 1-4 start to the season. Whether Tebow is ‘baby Jesus’ or not, if that team believed that Tebow could bring them back from that kind of start, imagine what they believe Manning can do with them. I don’t have them starting off well (I don’t think they’ll win a game until week 4), but they have such an easy schedule in the second half of the season that a playoff appearance should be easy.

5.            Baltimore Ravens (12-4) – 2nd Place AFC North, Wild Card

So, why did I pick the Steelers over the Ravens in the AFC North? Ultimately it came down to the early season. I think there are teams, including the Bengals, who may be able to pull of upsets against the Ravens early in the season. It doesn’t help the Ravens’ cause that Terrell Suggs, the 2011 Defensive Player of the Year, will be out for a while. He claims he’ll be back in November, but who knows if he’ll be back at all. It could be a much bigger hit than many Ravens fans realize. I do think they have a good chance to pull out the same record as Pittsburgh, but it will be the division record that forces Baltimore to play during the first weekend of the postseason.

6.            San Diego Chargers (10-6) – 2nd Place AFC West, Wild Card

The Chargers are the absolute opposite of the Broncos. I have them rushing out to a 7-2 start to the season before falling apart down the stretch, which seems to be their M.O. This team is too good, and has been together too long, to continue missing the playoffs. I have to believe they can make it. Unfortunately, the team’s history isn’t going to give them any confidence, and their head coach hasn’t seemed to be the best for them recently, so they will have a lot to fight against.

Rest of the Conference

I honestly don’t have one this year for the AFC. The six teams I’ve already named should be the favorites to be playing in January. There are teams who made strides last year, like the Bills and Dolphins, who could certainly upset my predictions, but neither has a schedule particularly conducive to that. The Jets could be much better than I predict them to be, but Sanchez isn’t going to take them anywhere and, as much as I like the guy, I find it difficult that Tebow can be as miraculous as he was in 2011, so I don’t think a wild card spot will go to an AFC East team.

I really hope Andy Dalton doesn’t fall into the all-to-common sophomore setbacks, but the Bengals don’t have an exceptionally easy schedule either. The Browns won’t do much either.

I am confident that neither the Jaguars nor the Titans will do much this year, though of the two the Titans would be more likely to surprise me. The big question mark is the Colts. They don’t have a lot to love, but who knows if Andrew Luck could come in and be as good or better than Cam Newton was next year, and I’m confident that the Colts have more to offer than the Panthers did last year.

The Chiefs have no prayer in my mind. The only team in the entire AFC that I’m seriously nervous that I underscored is the Raiders. I don’t particularly like them as postseason contenders, but they are the one team that I think could shake things up in the conference.

Preliminary Playoff Predictions

I’ve never done this in past years; I have always waited until the playoffs began to make predictions. I will still make those predictions weekly when the time comes, but I wanted to try something new this year so I will make preliminary predictions. My Super Bowl XLVII predictions will be at the end of my NFC Playoffs post.

AFC Wild Card

San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans

The Chargers have a little more experience in games of this nature, but assuming their key players remain healthy, I have little doubt that the Texans will be the overwhelming favorite in this matchup. I don’t expect the Chargers offense to be the most consistent entity, and I think that will heavily favor a Texans defense that might be even better than they were last year, considering Wade Phillips has had an entire offseason to work with it this time around. I also believe the Chargers defense will be no match for a healthy Texans offense.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

This is a surprisingly tough matchup to pick. Peyton has had Baltimore’s number throughout his career, but this would come against a potentially stronger Ravens team than any he’s faced before, and it would come with a Broncos team that he had less than a year to become comfortable with.

AFC Divisional Playoffs

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

If Suggs is healthy by January, this becomes a very interesting matchup, but without him, I don’t see the Ravens defense as one that can easily slow down New England, and certainly not in a game played in Foxboro.

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Not everyone feels the same way I do, but this is just how much I like the Texans chances this year. I think the Steelers will be a better team this year than they were last year, but I think they’ll still be inconsistent enough for a strong Texans team to take advantage.

AFC Championship Game

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Like when I was making my regular season standings predictions, I want to give the win to Houston here. But I can’t justify the Patriots losing, even to a strong, healthy Texans team, and certainly not at home in Foxboro against a dome team.

As I mentioned before, I will include my Super Bowl prediction at the end of my NFC Playoffs post. Thank you for reading!

2012-13 Postseason Predictions, Part I: Final Regular Season Standings

Hello everyone, and welcome back to football! It has been a long off-season and I’ve been avoiding ESPN so that I could truly get away from the NFL for awhile and focus on other sports, from my two favorite teams among the leaders in their respective leagues within the MLB to watching extensive coverage of the 2012 Tour de France and the 2012 London Olympics.

I am now well rested and ready to dive back into the wonderful world of the National Football League, and with tonight’s Hall of Fame Game between the Arizona Cardinals and the New Orleans Saints just moments away, I have my predictions for the final regular season standings for the 2012 NFL season.

My postseason predictions are still a few days away (I had to rush to try and complete this in time for tonight’s game), but I’ll have both done before the first official preseason game, between the Bills and Redskins, begins at 7 p.m. Thursday.

Here are my 2012 NFL final standings predictions:

AFC

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (7-9)

Miami Dolphins (7-9)

New England Patriots (15-1)

New York Jets (6-10)

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

Cincinnati Bengals (5-11)

Cleveland Browns (3-13)

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

AFC South

Houston Texans (12-4)

Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

Tennessee Titans (5-11)

AFC West

Denver Broncos (10-6)

Kansas City Chiefs (3-13)

Oakland Raiders (4-12)

San Diego Chargers (10-6)

NFC

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys (9-7)

New York Giants (8-8)

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Washington Redskins (7-9)

NFC North

Chicago Bears (9-7)

Detroit Lions (11-5)

Green Bay Packers (13-3)

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

Carolina Panthers (8-8)

New Orleans Saints (9-7)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

Seattle Seahawks (4-12)

St. Louis Rams (5-11)

By Thursday I will have predictions concerning the postseason, including which 9-7 team in the NFC I predict to be playing in January, as well as which teams I believe could upset my picks, or even blow them out of the water, on the way to a surprising 2012-13 playoff run.

As always I appreciate all of you reading this. As I continue to work on improving my writing style, it is having all of you read these posts that keeps me motivated to continue writing this blog. I hope you continue to read my work and of course comments, both positive and critical, are very much appreciated. Enjoy the NFL Season!!