Eric’s Picks, Conference Championships

Eric Meyer

We’re down to our final four. Only one new face is still in the hunt for a Super Bowl, while three others are looking for additional jewelry to add to their stashes. Some could argue that this is the “forgone conclusion” weekend, but that’s insulting to the two road teams who have made it this far.

It should be an exciting pair of games as established veterans square off against third-year, up-and-coming quarterbacks who are trying to build their own hall-of-fame legacies. Let’s get to it.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

The Packers got shellacked last time they went up to Seattle to wrangle with the defending championships, 36-16. Of course, that was Week 1. We saw last year that early season routs aren’t a good indicator of outcomes in January.

Last season, the San Francisco 49ers got thumped in Seattle in a Sunday Night bout in Week 2. They responded by playing a tight game in the NFC Championship and coming within one Richard Sherman “best corner in the game” play (and later rant) from heading to their second straight Super Bowl. It should be pretty obvious not to write off the Packers.

Here’s another oft-ignored point regarding Seattle: Stanton, Kaepernick, Sanchez, Kaepernick, Lindley, Hill and Newton. These are the seven quarterbacks that Seattle has faced since their loss to the Chiefs, during their supposed “rejuvenation.” None of those guys are elite. Over half of those guys aren’t even legitimate starting quarterbacks.

I have no doubt that Seattle’s defense has improved to levels similar to last season, but some people are failing to take the competition into consideration. Aaron Rodgers is more valuable than those six guys combines. He’s going to make some plays. I’m grabbing these points and running.

I think Seattle wins this game. Russell Wilson is one of the most hotly debated quarterbacks in the league. Some people thing he’s a game manager who rides his run game and defense to wins. I’m not in that camp. Wilson is one of the best playmakers in the NFL. He turns losing plays into big gains. He bails out his line when protection breaks down by scrambling and then making smart decisions outside of the pocket.

Wilson can hit you with absolute backbreaking plays just when you think you’ve turned the tide. Seattle’s defense is great and will keep the score relatively low, but Wilson will be the difference in this game. He’ll be heading to his second straight Super Bowl, where he and his Hawks will be favored to repeat.

Eric’s Pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 28

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

This is an interesting matchup. Andrew Luck vanquished his predecessor last week and now he has an opportunity to eliminate his predecessor’s longtime nemesis. Unfortunately, Luck has had less success than Manning ever had against the New England Patriots.

The Colts put on a quality performance against Denver last week. They shut down the Broncos’ passing attack and put the onus on a washed-up Peyton Manning to beat them deep. He failed and the Colts came away with the win. It’s a big confidence booster and I’m sure the Colts will feed off of that heading to Foxboro.

But let’s be real here. Andrew Luck played pretty well. Not great. Not badly. He was okay. He wasn’t superman. He didn’t put the team on his back. He didn’t play flawless football. He threw two picks that turned out to be harmless, but very easily could’ve hurt his team.

On defense, the Colts played, again, pretty well. Vontae Davis played the game of his life. They took advantage of Manning’s noodle arm. What they didn’t do was stop the run. They still allowed C.J. Anderson to get 4.4 yards per carry. They failed to tackle him on Denver’s not-so-season saving drive where Anderson was contacted five yards behind the line of scrimmage and slipped three Colts defenders for a first down conversion on 4th & 1.

There are still holes on this Colts team. The Patriots have a much tougher team than Denver, and a much better quarterback at the moment. New England has hammered the Colts with their rushing attack each of the last two times they’ve met. They’ve been able to do pretty much whatever they want at the line of scrimmage. And if the Colts decide to stack the box to stop the run, they’ll just have to deal with a guy named Tom Brady.

Andrew Luck will have his moments, but ultimately New England will prevail and play for their fourth Super Bowl title.

Eric’s Pick: Indianapolis 24, New England 38