Eric’s NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

The holidays are over, which means that it’s time for some playoff football! Twelve teams are still alive for the Lombardi Trophy, and four of those teams will take their first steps toward NFL immortality this weekend. Four others will have to try again next year.

It’s been a tumultuous NFL season, both on the field and off, but I guess that how Roger Goodell wants it. This has been one of the most difficult seasons to predict yet, and the playoffs likely will be no different, but I’m going to take my best shot at it on Cory’s very special blog page if he doesn’t mind.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Insert joke about NFC South here:

Yes, we all know the NFL South struggled this year. It’s interesting that the NFL’s worst division winner draws the wildcard from what was clearly the NFL’s best division in the NFC West. It’s even more interesting (and downright ironic) that the 7-8-1 Panthers are the heaviest favorite to advance over the 11-5 Cardinals. The Panthers that could not win for two straight months are touchdown favorites to beat a Cardinals team that started off 9-1 this season. How fun.

Obviously, when you dig a little deeper you can understand why. Carolina is the home team, which is an immediately three-point swing in the point spread. Also, Carolina has quietly put together a pretty impressive stretch, blowing out the Saints and the Falcons in their own backyards to finally grab control of the division. Cam Newton has gotten healthier and Jonathan Steward has re-emerged to give the Panthers and essential boost in the running game. With an improving defense and a standout rookie WR in Kelvin Benjamin, this Panthers team doesn’t look half-bad right now.

Of course, the main culprit of the shocking point spread is Arizona’s injury situation at quarterback. Carson Palmer tore his ACL and Drew Stanton sprained a knee, which left the Cardinals down to Ryan Lindley, who is a historically bad quarterback. Couple that with the injury to Andre Ellington and you have one anemic offense limping into the playoffs. I commend the Cardinals for reaching this point despite their QB carousel, and I would hate to see the Panthers advance as such an undeserving playoff team, but I think Carolina nabs this one and covers the spread as well.

Eric’s Pick: Arizona 10, Carolina 27

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

Why am I not shocked that the Ravens are playing the Steelers in the playoffs. It seems like a yearly tradition that these two black and blue squads would square off for round three with everything at stake. That being said, this is a different brand of rivalry than we are used to. The defense is lacking for both squads, and it could be a strange change of pace from what we are used to seeing.

Both teams had to grind through the AFC North, a division fat with wins from feasting on the awful southern divisions from each conference. It was pretty much inevitable that this division would send three teams to the playoffs, but make no mistake. These are two quality football teams.

Le’Veon Bell is out. Ouch. That’s a killer for the Steelers’ chances. That is, until your remember that Pittsburgh features the best wide receiver in football, along with two other solid options outside the numbers in Marcus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant. Pair that up against an awful Ravens secondary and you just might see another six touchdown passes from Ben Roethlisberger.

The Ravens have some grit and the Steelers’ secondary is nothing to write home about, but the way the Ravens’ offense finished the season concerns me. I just don’t think that they can keep up with the Steelers’ offensive output, even without their superstar running back.

Eric’s Pick: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 31

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

We’ve seen this matchup before and it didn’t end well for the Bengals. The Colts shut Cincinnati out in a week 9 romp, but Andy Dalton and company recovered pretty nicely and locked up their fourth straight playoff appearance. Dalton is trying to get over the hump with a playoff win, and Marvin Lewis’s job might just depend on the Who Deys to get that win.

Unfortunately, I think it’ll be the same old song and dance for Cincinnati. Luck and the Colts haven’t played their best football down the stretch, but they’re at home, they can put up a lot of points, and their defense has been surprisingly stout at times, especially with Vontae Davis doing his best impression of Revis Island this season.

The Bengals haven’t usually brought it in the big moments, while the young Colts have shown some serious guile with their phenom quarterback leading the way. Marvin Lewis better update his CV.

Eric’s Pick: Cincinnati 17, Indianapolis 30

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The wildcard round’s final game wouldn’t have been right without a little controversy, and Ndamukong Suh made it happen. Color me shocked. Suh was initially suspended for this bout between NFC studs, but his lawyer pulled a Johnny Cochran and convinced the NFL to overturn the suspension, and Suh left with just a $70,000 fine thanks to his cold feet defense.

Whether or not you agree with Suh’s reduced punishment, he’s playing, and that’s a major factor in deciding this game. Suh is the Lion’s biggest asset on defense, and they’re going to need him if they plan to penetrate Dallas’s vaunted offensive line and stop DeMarco Murray from running wild. This is a clash of the titans in the trenches, and it’ll be interesting to see who wins that battle.

I think this is going to be a close game. The Cowboys are at home, but that hasn’t helped them much this season. That being said, Tony Romo has been the best and most clutch quarterback in the NFL this season. There, I said it. Romo looks like a rejuvenated star with Murray taking the pressure off, and having an All-pro wide receiver doesn’t hurt either.

The Romo hate has been momentarily silenced, but he can permanently quiet the critics with a deep playoff run. Betting on Romo in the playoffs still seems a bit crazy, but the Cowboys have completely flipped the script this year. I’m taking the points in this one, but I expect the Cowboys to punch their ticket to Lambeau Field.

Eric’s Picks: Detroit 24, Dallas 30 (Detroit beats the spread)