Friday, January 2, 2015

Puff’s Picks, 2015 Wild Card



Happy New Year, everyone! Thursday evening I watched the first ever college football playoffs. The first game was more than a little disappointing. I was pulling for Jameis Winston and the Seminoles, but the main disappointment was with how poorly Florida State played in the second half. They didn’t even put up a fight.

Thankfully, the late game offered much more excitement. I generally can’t stand college football, and the touchdown catch for OSU at the end of the first half annoyed me more than a little (seriously, NCAA, you only need one foot in bounds? Is this grade school?). But it was a fun game and it’s nice to see four teams get to compete for the chance to play in the national championship game.

Now it’s time for the real tournament to begin, the professional one. The clock doesn’t stop for a first down and you better get that second foot down in bounds.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Someone had to win the NFC South. The Panthers finally emerged from a pack of teams that didn’t seem to want to play in January and earned a playoff birth with a four-game winning streak to end the season.

Whether the Panthers earned the right to host a playoff game is another matter. Maybe in 2016 they wouldn’t be hosting, but this year they are. The Arizona Cardinals are a depleted bunch with their first- and second-string quarterbacks both injured. They do not have Andre Ellington available.

If there is any good news for the Cardinals, it’s that most of the defensive players who appeared on their injury report have been able to practice in some capacity this week.

Sadly for them, I don’t think that will be enough. The Arizona offense doesn’t bother me at all if I’m Carolina, and the Panther offense has hit their stride lately, despite Kelvin Benjamin have some trouble catching the ball lately.

I hate to pick against Bruce Arians, I think he’s one of the best head coaches in the NFL right now. But I don’t think Arizona is healthy enough to pull out this game on the road.

 Puff’s Pick: Panthers over Cardinals, 27-13

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

As much as Ravens fans annoy me and I’m not thrilled that their team made the playoffs, I am thrilled that we get a third matchup between these two teams this season. This is my favorite rivalry in the NFL.

The only disappointing thing about this weekend’s matchup is that the two teams aren’t at full strength. The Ravens will be without starting left tackle Eugene Monroe as well as rookie defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan.

The Steelers are lucky to have most of the players on their injury report listed as probably. The one exception is second year running back Le’Veon Bell, who recorded the second most rushing yards in the NFL this year behind DeMarco Murray. Bell was also the only player in the top 15 for rushing yards this season without a fumble and had the most receiving yards in the NFL from the running back position.

Early in the week, when Bell’s status was still unknown, I was leaning heavily toward Pittsburgh winning this game. The Ravens have been inconsistent, even as Joe Flacco has quietly put together the second-best season of his career. Then again, the Steelers have had some inconsistencies themselves.

Pittsburgh is playing at home, but given Bell’s status and unknown quality of depth at the running back position I have to give the nod to the Ravens this weekend.

Puff’s Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-23

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

This might be my least-anticipated game of the weekend. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game under Marvin Lewis and the Colts have not impressed lately. Their near-shutout loss to Dallas in week 16 aside, Andrew Luck has been turning the ball over a lot lately.

To be fair, Luck had been turning the ball over a lot all season. He has only recorded three turnover-free games all year, and he three seven interceptions in two playoff games a year ago. But early this season and even last postseason he made up for the turnovers by racking up tons of passing yards and a slew of touchdown passes. He led the NFL with 40 of them this season.

He hasn’t kept up that trend in the past few weeks, though, and so I expect this to be an ugly game with neither team truly winning it. It’ll come down to which team does more to lose it.

The good news for the Colts is that they’re playing at home and are much healthier than the Bengals. With A.J. Green doubtful and two other wide receivers out, Cincinnati may have to rely solely on Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard on offense. That won’t be enough, even if Cincy’s defense forces a few mistakes by Luck.

Puff’s Pick: Colts over Bengals, 20-14

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The Lions are very lucky that Ndamukong Suh’s suspension was overturned and he will be permitted to play this Sunday. I understand the decision, though I certainly don’t agree with it.

I don’t think it will mean much, though. The Lions offensive unit is equipped with more talent than they’ve ever had. Their rookie tight end is a little shaky, but Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are excellent runners with a solid backup in Theo Riddick. Meanwhile, Golden Tate has finally given the team the viable second receiver they’ve needed to keep defenses honest rather than letting them focus their entire secondary on Megatron.

Yet this offense has failed to gel on a consistent basis. They looked great in their season opener against the Giants, but they’ve only shown flashes of that since.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys avenged their home loss to the Redskins with a huge win in week 17. Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray both throughout and came out uninjured and looking terrific. Any concerns about Murray’s hand were put to rest.

Even the talent on Detroit’s defense will not be enough to stop Dallas, and I have no problem saying that the Cowboys will shut down Detroit’s offense for the majority of the game.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Lions, 30-17

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