Saturday, January 17, 2015

Puff’s Picks, Conference Championships


Cory Puffett

After a perfect opening weekend and a 6-0 start to my playoff predictions, my hope for a Joe Flacco postseason (11-0 prediction record) was dashed when the Cowboys and Broncos both lost last Sunday.

Now I’ll try and build on my 6-2 start to the playoffs with the games on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

This has definitely been the more difficult of the two game for me to make up my mind about. The obvious choice is the Seahawks. They have almost everything going for them.

They have the best home field advantage in the NFL. They won the Week 1 meeting between the two teams, and teams in Seattle’s position this Sunday are 6-0 historically. The Seahawks have Beastmode and the Legion of Boom.

So why am I so hesitant to pull the trigger on them? The simple answer is Aaron Rodgers, but the real answer goes beyond him.

Aaron Rodgers has one of the best young running backs in the league with him. If there was anything the Packers were saving him for when they were giving the reps Eddie Lacy deserved to James Starks early in the season, it would be for this moment.

The receiving corps Rodgers has is maybe the deepest in the league. He has one of the best 1-2 combos in Nelson and Cobb and we saw last week against Dallas that Rodgers has no problems getting the ball to the wide receivers and tight ends buried on the Green Bay depth chart.

We all know about Seattle, so I’m not going to go into detail about them. They struggled a bit out of the gate, but they’re back to the same form they were last postseason. This is, again, a legit championship contender. But of the three other teams left, Green Bay has the best tools with which to win in Seattle. The other two teams are just lucky they don’t have to go to CenturyLink Field.

The reason I’m sticking with the Seahawks this weekend is because of Mike McCarthy. He’s too unpredictable. Will he take advantage of the fact that Eddie Lacy is not as banged up as most running backs would be at this point in the season? Will he use Lacy to protect his quarterback who, while still playing like the best in the league, is clearly not 100-percent?

I’d like to think that he will, but McCarthy doesn’t always do the intelligent thing. He’s an overrated coach who rode his star quarterback’s coattails to a Super Bowl title and has botched every opportunity to return since then.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Packers, 34-28

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

No trouble here, I’m taking the Patriots all the way. I expected the Ravens to give them some trouble, but ultimate I went with New England last week for reasons I won’t repeat here but you’re more than welcome to go back and refer to last week’s prediction post.

Now that they shook out the rust from the week off, New England should be ready to annihilate Andrew Luck and the Colts. Peyton Manning couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his deep passes last week. I expected the run game to come through for the Broncos, which was the only reason I picked them to win. We’d already seen Manning was falling apart.

The Colts managed to contain C.J. Anderson and so were able to win the football game. But this week they have to go up against a quarterback who suddenly looks to be aging much slower than the Sherriff.

Tom Brady doesn’t have the deep receiving corps that Manning has, but at this point in time he has the better arm. More importantly, he’s created depth by finally getting on the same page with Danny Amendola. Factor in the depth in the backfield and the great secondary, and I don’t see anyway New England loses at home unless Bill Belichick goes senile and decides he’d have a better chance with Jimmy Garoppolo under center and Michael Hoomanawanui as the play caller. (Yeah, I just wanted to say Hoomanawanui. What a name.)


Puff’s Pick: Patriots over Colts, 35-10

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