Divisional Round Afterword, Part I

Tom Brady broke Joe Montana's record for postseason touchdown
passes with the 46th of his career Saturday evening against Baltimore.

Cory Puffett

Baltimore at New England

Joe Flacco continued his playoff hot streak by throwing two touchdown passes in the first quarter Saturday evening. After the Patriots erased the 14-point deficit, Flacco hooked up with Owen Daniels for his third touchdown pass of the game with ten seconds left in the first half.

The Patriots would not lose a home playoff game to the Ravens for the third time in the last five years, though. They let the Ravens build their lead back to 14 early in the second half but again erased that deficit.

Flacco had played a mostly perfect game, but with less than two minutes to play and trailing by four, he made a very poor throw and Duron Harmon made the interception.

The Ravens did get one last shot at the end zone with four seconds left, but Flacco’s Hail Mary was not answered.

The Patriots are the first team in NFL history to twice trail by 14 points and still win a playoff game.

With a win to clinch a Super Bowl birth next week, Bill Belichick would break Tom Landry’s record for postseason wins by a head coach. He’ll be watching tomorrow’s Denver/Indianapolis game to prepare for that opportunity.

Doug Baldwin was the first of four Seahawks to reach the end zone
Sunday night in a 31-17 divisional round win over the Carolina Panthers.

Carolina at Seattle

The late game was an endurance race for the ages. A great defensive battle took center stage in the first quarter half as Carolina’s defense did an excellent job of conserving their energy by getting off the field quickly by the Seahawks, as usual, used their home crowd to help them do the same.

The Seahawks got on the scoreboard first and the two teams exchanged blows on the way to a 14-10 Seattle lead at halftime.

Both defenses used the break to rest again and the third quarter brought no scoring as neither team could break through until a 12-play drive by the Seahawks at the end of the quarter led to a field goal at the start of the fourth.

Seattle won the enduring race as Carolina’s defense finally wore down. A 90-yard interception return by Kam Chancellor with six minutes left put the nail in the Panthers’ coffin.

Kelvin Benjamin had a very impressive day against the legion of boom, catching 7 passes for 75 yards and two scores. Overall, Carolina played a very good game. Despite the margin of victory, they were not an easy team to put away for the defending Super Bowl champions.

Seattle will host the winner of Sunday’s game between the Cowboys and Packers next Sunday.

Wild Card Afterword, Part I

Luke Kuechly's fourth quarter interception sealed Carolina's
first playoff win since January 2006.

Cory Puffett

Arizona at Carolina

Cam Newton praised his defense following Carolina’s victory to open wild card weekend. Newton played a solid game, but he was absolutely right to give credit for the win to his defense.

Sure Ryan Lindley was the opposing quarterback, and sure Andre Ellington couldn’t play Saturday afternoon; but even with that handicap, it’s amazing that Carolina’s defense allowed just 78 yards of total offense to Arizona. That was a team that started the season 9-1 and has offensive guru Bruce Arians at the helm.

I picked Carolina to win and was very close to picking the correct final score (Arizona scored an extra three points), but I had no premonitions of their defense manhandling the Cardinals offense the way they did. Arizona’s two touchdown drives, and I use that term loosely, were a combined 10 plays for 47 yards consuming 4:19 of game time.

Luke Kuechly played a masterful game with 10 tackles, 2 pass deflections and an interception. Carolina may have lifted their season record to just .500, but the defense makes this a dangerous team whether they have to play in Seattle or Green Bay next week.

It didn't matter how much pressure Pittsburgh brought, Joe Flacco shrugged
it off to deliver a terrific performance Saturday night in Pittsburgh.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The later game was as exciting as we’ve come to expect from the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, unlike their last regular season meeting when Ben Roethlisberger tossed six touchdown passes for the second consecutive game.

I survived the 2013 postseason, so I pray I can do it again this year because Ravens fans are about to get very obnoxious. They’ll have to go into New England next weekend, but John Harbaugh has coached the Ravens to playoff victories there before and the team has plenty of reason to believe he can do so again.

Harbaugh first led the Ravens to a postseason win in New England in 2009, thanks in part to Ray Rice setting the tone with an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. Three years later, the Ravens went into Denver to beat Peyton Manning in his first season back from injury and then won in New England a week later en route to the team’s first Super Bowl victory since 2000.

The Ravens twice lost playoff games in Pittsburgh during Harbaugh’s first five years with the team, but they returned to the Steel City with a vengeance on Saturday. They didn’t blow the Steelers off of Heinz Field, but they sure came close to it.

Justin Forsett had been inconsistent over the last quarter of the season, but the team hoped he could duplicate his 119-yard performance from last week against Cleveland. That wasn’t the case as he lost a fumble and only managed 36 yards in the contest.

Fortunately for the Ravens, their defense played great and Joe Flacco continued his playoff hot streak. The 7th-year pro out of Delaware has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last five playoff starts and had a terrific game Saturday in Pittsburgh.

It’s too early to make predictions for the divisional round, but it’s safe to say I’m going to be wrestling with Ravens vs. Patriots all week as I try to make sense of that matchup and find a definitive reason to pick either team to win that game.

Eric’s NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

The holidays are over, which means that it’s time for some playoff football! Twelve teams are still alive for the Lombardi Trophy, and four of those teams will take their first steps toward NFL immortality this weekend. Four others will have to try again next year.

It’s been a tumultuous NFL season, both on the field and off, but I guess that how Roger Goodell wants it. This has been one of the most difficult seasons to predict yet, and the playoffs likely will be no different, but I’m going to take my best shot at it on Cory’s very special blog page if he doesn’t mind.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Insert joke about NFC South here:

Yes, we all know the NFL South struggled this year. It’s interesting that the NFL’s worst division winner draws the wildcard from what was clearly the NFL’s best division in the NFC West. It’s even more interesting (and downright ironic) that the 7-8-1 Panthers are the heaviest favorite to advance over the 11-5 Cardinals. The Panthers that could not win for two straight months are touchdown favorites to beat a Cardinals team that started off 9-1 this season. How fun.

Obviously, when you dig a little deeper you can understand why. Carolina is the home team, which is an immediately three-point swing in the point spread. Also, Carolina has quietly put together a pretty impressive stretch, blowing out the Saints and the Falcons in their own backyards to finally grab control of the division. Cam Newton has gotten healthier and Jonathan Steward has re-emerged to give the Panthers and essential boost in the running game. With an improving defense and a standout rookie WR in Kelvin Benjamin, this Panthers team doesn’t look half-bad right now.

Of course, the main culprit of the shocking point spread is Arizona’s injury situation at quarterback. Carson Palmer tore his ACL and Drew Stanton sprained a knee, which left the Cardinals down to Ryan Lindley, who is a historically bad quarterback. Couple that with the injury to Andre Ellington and you have one anemic offense limping into the playoffs. I commend the Cardinals for reaching this point despite their QB carousel, and I would hate to see the Panthers advance as such an undeserving playoff team, but I think Carolina nabs this one and covers the spread as well.

Eric’s Pick: Arizona 10, Carolina 27

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

Why am I not shocked that the Ravens are playing the Steelers in the playoffs. It seems like a yearly tradition that these two black and blue squads would square off for round three with everything at stake. That being said, this is a different brand of rivalry than we are used to. The defense is lacking for both squads, and it could be a strange change of pace from what we are used to seeing.

Both teams had to grind through the AFC North, a division fat with wins from feasting on the awful southern divisions from each conference. It was pretty much inevitable that this division would send three teams to the playoffs, but make no mistake. These are two quality football teams.

Le’Veon Bell is out. Ouch. That’s a killer for the Steelers’ chances. That is, until your remember that Pittsburgh features the best wide receiver in football, along with two other solid options outside the numbers in Marcus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant. Pair that up against an awful Ravens secondary and you just might see another six touchdown passes from Ben Roethlisberger.

The Ravens have some grit and the Steelers’ secondary is nothing to write home about, but the way the Ravens’ offense finished the season concerns me. I just don’t think that they can keep up with the Steelers’ offensive output, even without their superstar running back.

Eric’s Pick: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 31

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

We’ve seen this matchup before and it didn’t end well for the Bengals. The Colts shut Cincinnati out in a week 9 romp, but Andy Dalton and company recovered pretty nicely and locked up their fourth straight playoff appearance. Dalton is trying to get over the hump with a playoff win, and Marvin Lewis’s job might just depend on the Who Deys to get that win.

Unfortunately, I think it’ll be the same old song and dance for Cincinnati. Luck and the Colts haven’t played their best football down the stretch, but they’re at home, they can put up a lot of points, and their defense has been surprisingly stout at times, especially with Vontae Davis doing his best impression of Revis Island this season.

The Bengals haven’t usually brought it in the big moments, while the young Colts have shown some serious guile with their phenom quarterback leading the way. Marvin Lewis better update his CV.

Eric’s Pick: Cincinnati 17, Indianapolis 30

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The wildcard round’s final game wouldn’t have been right without a little controversy, and Ndamukong Suh made it happen. Color me shocked. Suh was initially suspended for this bout between NFC studs, but his lawyer pulled a Johnny Cochran and convinced the NFL to overturn the suspension, and Suh left with just a $70,000 fine thanks to his cold feet defense.

Whether or not you agree with Suh’s reduced punishment, he’s playing, and that’s a major factor in deciding this game. Suh is the Lion’s biggest asset on defense, and they’re going to need him if they plan to penetrate Dallas’s vaunted offensive line and stop DeMarco Murray from running wild. This is a clash of the titans in the trenches, and it’ll be interesting to see who wins that battle.

I think this is going to be a close game. The Cowboys are at home, but that hasn’t helped them much this season. That being said, Tony Romo has been the best and most clutch quarterback in the NFL this season. There, I said it. Romo looks like a rejuvenated star with Murray taking the pressure off, and having an All-pro wide receiver doesn’t hurt either.

The Romo hate has been momentarily silenced, but he can permanently quiet the critics with a deep playoff run. Betting on Romo in the playoffs still seems a bit crazy, but the Cowboys have completely flipped the script this year. I’m taking the points in this one, but I expect the Cowboys to punch their ticket to Lambeau Field.

Eric’s Picks: Detroit 24, Dallas 30 (Detroit beats the spread)

Puff’s Picks, 2015 Wild Card

Happy New Year, everyone! Thursday evening I watched the first ever college football playoffs. The first game was more than a little disappointing. I was pulling for Jameis Winston and the Seminoles, but the main disappointment was with how poorly Florida State played in the second half. They didn’t even put up a fight.

Thankfully, the late game offered much more excitement. I generally can’t stand college football, and the touchdown catch for OSU at the end of the first half annoyed me more than a little (seriously, NCAA, you only need one foot in bounds? Is this grade school?). But it was a fun game and it’s nice to see four teams get to compete for the chance to play in the national championship game.

Now it’s time for the real tournament to begin, the professional one. The clock doesn’t stop for a first down and you better get that second foot down in bounds.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm – ESPN

Someone had to win the NFC South. The Panthers finally emerged from a pack of teams that didn’t seem to want to play in January and earned a playoff birth with a four-game winning streak to end the season.

Whether the Panthers earned the right to host a playoff game is another matter. Maybe in 2016 they wouldn’t be hosting, but this year they are. The Arizona Cardinals are a depleted bunch with their first- and second-string quarterbacks both injured. They do not have Andre Ellington available.

If there is any good news for the Cardinals, it’s that most of the defensive players who appeared on their injury report have been able to practice in some capacity this week.

Sadly for them, I don’t think that will be enough. The Arizona offense doesn’t bother me at all if I’m Carolina, and the Panther offense has hit their stride lately, despite Kelvin Benjamin have some trouble catching the ball lately.

I hate to pick against Bruce Arians, I think he’s one of the best head coaches in the NFL right now. But I don’t think Arizona is healthy enough to pull out this game on the road.

 Puff’s Pick: Panthers over Cardinals, 27-13

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm – NBC

As much as Ravens fans annoy me and I’m not thrilled that their team made the playoffs, I am thrilled that we get a third matchup between these two teams this season. This is my favorite rivalry in the NFL.

The only disappointing thing about this weekend’s matchup is that the two teams aren’t at full strength. The Ravens will be without starting left tackle Eugene Monroe as well as rookie defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan.

The Steelers are lucky to have most of the players on their injury report listed as probably. The one exception is second year running back Le’Veon Bell, who recorded the second most rushing yards in the NFL this year behind DeMarco Murray. Bell was also the only player in the top 15 for rushing yards this season without a fumble and had the most receiving yards in the NFL from the running back position.

Early in the week, when Bell’s status was still unknown, I was leaning heavily toward Pittsburgh winning this game. The Ravens have been inconsistent, even as Joe Flacco has quietly put together the second-best season of his career. Then again, the Steelers have had some inconsistencies themselves.

Pittsburgh is playing at home, but given Bell’s status and unknown quality of depth at the running back position I have to give the nod to the Ravens this weekend.

Puff’s Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-23

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm – CBS

This might be my least-anticipated game of the weekend. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game under Marvin Lewis and the Colts have not impressed lately. Their near-shutout loss to Dallas in week 16 aside, Andrew Luck has been turning the ball over a lot lately.

To be fair, Luck had been turning the ball over a lot all season. He has only recorded three turnover-free games all year, and he three seven interceptions in two playoff games a year ago. But early this season and even last postseason he made up for the turnovers by racking up tons of passing yards and a slew of touchdown passes. He led the NFL with 40 of them this season.

He hasn’t kept up that trend in the past few weeks, though, and so I expect this to be an ugly game with neither team truly winning it. It’ll come down to which team does more to lose it.

The good news for the Colts is that they’re playing at home and are much healthier than the Bengals. With A.J. Green doubtful and two other wide receivers out, Cincinnati may have to rely solely on Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard on offense. That won’t be enough, even if Cincy’s defense forces a few mistakes by Luck.

Puff’s Pick: Colts over Bengals, 20-14

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm – FOX

The Lions are very lucky that Ndamukong Suh’s suspension was overturned and he will be permitted to play this Sunday. I understand the decision, though I certainly don’t agree with it.

I don’t think it will mean much, though. The Lions offensive unit is equipped with more talent than they’ve ever had. Their rookie tight end is a little shaky, but Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are excellent runners with a solid backup in Theo Riddick. Meanwhile, Golden Tate has finally given the team the viable second receiver they’ve needed to keep defenses honest rather than letting them focus their entire secondary on Megatron.

Yet this offense has failed to gel on a consistent basis. They looked great in their season opener against the Giants, but they’ve only shown flashes of that since.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys avenged their home loss to the Redskins with a huge win in week 17. Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray both throughout and came out uninjured and looking terrific. Any concerns about Murray’s hand were put to rest.

Even the talent on Detroit’s defense will not be enough to stop Dallas, and I have no problem saying that the Cowboys will shut down Detroit’s offense for the majority of the game.

Puff’s Pick: Cowboys over Lions, 30-17

Divisional Playoff Afterword: Panthers vs 49ers

Carolina held Vernon Davis to just one reception for one yard, but it was
this touchdown at the end of the first half that shifted momentum to the 49ers.

Cory Puffett

Carolina beat itself early in the game. They seemed to get the boat back on track but San Francisco stole the moment at the end of the first half and their defense rattled Cam Newton in the game’s final 30 minutes.

On the 49ers’ opening drive, dumb penalties by Carolina on multiple third downs allowed San Francisco to get into field goal range. Cam Newton then had a pass picked off on a deflection during his first possession that led to another 49er field goal.

Newton looked good the rest of the half, completing almost all of his passes. But poor goal line execution by the Panthers’ offense left at least one touchdown off the board.

But a 12-play, 79-yard drive at the end of the second quarter, resulting in a go-ahead touchdown, shifted momentum to San Francisco and they never relinquished it.

Jim Harbaugh has now led his 49ers to three NFC Championship games in his first three years as an NFL head coach. He is 5-2 in the playoffs and 4-1 with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback.

Kaepernick threw for 196 yards and a touchdown in the game. Frank Gore took a while to get things rolling but put up 84 yards on 17 carries including a big 39-yard run on 3^rd & 1 late in the fourth quarter.

Anquan Boldin factored into the win with 8 receptions for 136 yards on 12 targets. Carolina had no answer for him and the few times they were able to take him away, Michael Crabtree found an opening to give Kaepernick another look.

The 49ers will face off with their NFC West rival in Seattle next Sunday in the conference championship game. San Francisco will be playing for a second straight Super Bowl appearance. The last team to do so was the New England Patriots nearly ten years ago when they made it to Super Bowl’s XXXVIII (38) and XXXIX (39).

Seattle has appeared in just one NFC title game, in 2005 when they defeated the Panthers to appear in Super Bowl XL against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That followed their only other 13-3 season in franchise history.

Final Score:

San Francisco 49ers – 23

Carolina Panthers – 10

2014 Divisional Preview: Panthers vs 49ers

Cory Puffett

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

January 12 – 1:05pm (FOX)

Three of the Football Freaks voted this as the game of the week. I was one of them and now I get to tell you why this matchup excites me so much.

These two teams are nearly identical. I can’t remember ever seeing two teams so much alike in the same season. Both have quarterbacks who can make big plays with their arms or their legs. Both have very solid running backs. And San Francisco and Carolina each have similar strengths on defense.

I can explain in what ways Carolina is slightly better than San Francisco and in what facets of the game the 49ers are superior. But instead, let me use these stats I used earlier in the week to calculate my divisional round power rankings.

Of the eight remaining playoff teams:

• Against the run, Carolina is ranked 1^st, San Francisco is ranked 2^nd.
• Against the pass, Carolina is ranked 3^rd, San Francisco is ranked 4^th.
• In rushing offense, Carolina is ranked 4^th, San Francisco is ranked 1^st.
• In passing offense, Carolina is ranked 3^rd, San Francisco is ranked 4^th.

These teams are eerily similar, and it makes for a very exciting matchup that will be nearly impossible to predict. When two teams are this evenly matched, the game almost always comes down to turnovers, penalties, and who makes (or misses) a big play.

San Francisco running back Frank Gore is one of the best in the game. It is no coincidence that rushing offense is the one major statistical category in which the 49ers are better than the Panthers.

But my concern is Colin Kaepernick. He’s broken out of his “sophomore slump” – I know this is his third season in the league, just go with me here. But how will he stand up to this Carolina defense? He played poorly the first time they played, and that was at home in Candlestick. Sure, he’s won games against Seattle and Arizona since then, but he wasn’t dominant in either of those games.

Sunday’s matchup also features two of the best inside linebackers in the game today. Patrick Willis has been a pro bowler every year of his professional career, all the way back to his rookie season in 2007. Luke Kuechly should have made the pro bowl last year in his own rookie campaign, but nobody seemed to know who he was until he won defensive rookie of the year and people suddenly realized that he led the entire NFL in tackles.

Both teams should know how to defend against mobile quarterbacks. San Francisco has more offensive weapons in the pass game, especially now that Michael Crabtree is healthy and again a major part of the offense.

Like I said earlier, I can dissect each position to pieces. This game will most likely come down to who can take care of the ball and which team is able to avoid critical errors resulting in penalties or big plays.

I will make my official prediction tomorrow, along with my picks for the other three divisional games.