Divisional Playoff Afterword: Broncos vs Chargers

Fresh off career-best seasons, Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno
will lead Denver against the New England Patriots in the AFC title game.

Cory Puffett

For two weeks, even as eleven other teams played out the first seven games of the 2014 postseason, the spotlight was on the Denver Broncos. They were bombarded with questions about topics ranging from Peyton Manning’s 9-11 career playoff record to Denver’s divisional playoff to the Ravens just a season ago. Stories ran covering everything Peyton Manning’s abysmal career weather in outdoor, cold-weather games to Denver’s regular-season home loss to San Diego just a month ago.

The Broncos didn’t necessarily rise to the occasion in the way their fans would have liked, but they got out to a fast start did just enough to hold off a fourth quarter surge by the Chargers.

Denver followed the trend of the postseason, albeit not to the tee. All eight winning teams have gained at least 100 rushing yards. But Peyton Manning was the only winning quarterback in the divisional round to throw for at least 200 yards.

Denver’s secondary struggled throughout the game, but a great pass rush during the first half covered up their shortcomings and allowed Denver to take a comfortable 14-0 lead into the intermission.

San Diego’s was able to take advantage of a couple drops, some poor play calls, a pair of errant throws by Manning and an onside kick recovery to make a huge fourth quarter comeback. All 17 of the Chargers’ points came in the final quarter.

But Denver managed one deep drive capped off by a touchdown run by Knowshon Moreno that ultimately made the difference.

Now Denver will host the New England Patriots in next Sunday’s AFC title game. The Patriots scored 43 points on arguably a better defense than what the Denver Broncos have, but I’ll talk more about that in my preview on Thursday.

This will be the 15^th meeting between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and the fourth in the postseason. Brady leads the playoff series 2-1, but the home team has won every time so far.

Final Score:

San Diego Chargers – 17

Denver Broncos – 24

2014 Divisional Preview: Broncos vs Chargers

Cory Puffett

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

January 12 – 4:40pm (CBS)

They’re calling for highs in the mid-40s on Sunday and temperatures shouldn’t dip below freezing until after the game ends. They’re also calling for a lot of wind in Denver, but current forecasts show this game falling in a much milder part of the day.

I bring that up only because this isn’t the game to read too much into Peyton Manning’s cold-weather struggles. Unless weather conditions turn out to be more extreme than expected, any failure on his part will be due to something else entirely.

This game received Eric’s vote for game of the week, and it’s not hard to see why. Denver and San Diego have already faced off twice this season, each taking a win in the other’s home stadium. They last played in Week 15, in the last Thursday Night Football game of the season, and the Chargers won 27-20.

Denver’s offense has been held to less than 30 points just three times all season. Once was in a 27-17 victory against Kansas City. The other two both came against San Diego. Denver won at Qualcomm Stadium, 28-20 in November.

Statistically, San Diego shouldn’t be able to slow down Denver this well. They have the lowest ranked pass defense of the eight remaining playoff teams and are ranked fifth among those teams against the run.

I know Mike McCoy is an offensive coach; he was Peyton Manning’s offensive coordinator last year. But he’s a very good one and I’m sure that even in that one year he picked up on a few things that he’s been able to give to San Diego’s defensive coordinator John Pagano, who is a very good coach himself.

It’s funny it should happen that way. San Diego has really had Peyton Manning’s number in the past. In 13 career games against the Chargers, including the playoffs, Manning’s teams are just 7-6. In those games, Manning has thrown 28 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. And now it seems the Chargers are poised to steal his thunder once again.

Now, I do have to put out there that in both of Indianapolis’s playoff losses to San Diego Manning played very well, even the first one when he was picked off twice. A lot of Manning’s struggles against the Chargers came early in his career.

So on Sunday I think the biggest question mark, as it proved to be in last year’s divisional loss to Baltimore, is Denver’s defense. Wes Welker is back so Manning will have all his weapons, and Denver’s rushing offense is very good, too.

Can Denver’s defense contain Ryan Mathews? The Broncos had one of the league’s top run defenses in the regular season, and that was with Mathews and Jamaal Charles facing them twice each.

Even more importantly, can Denver take away Philip Rivers’ weapons? Keenan Allen only had six catches in his two games against Denver this season, but both of his receptions in that Week 15 meeting went for touchdowns. In fact, those were Rivers’ only two touchdown passes of the game. He only threw 20 times, completing just 12 passes, because the run game was so dominant.

Ryan Mathews shared the backfield with Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead in the first game against the Broncos, but in Week 15 he carried 29 times for 127 yards. Denver has to take away Mathews early or he’ll get into a rhythm and there will be no way to keep San Diego out of the red zone.

That brings me to the other big factor for this game. San Diego has been inconsistent all season in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. They did a great job last week in Cincinnati. Denver better have something to say about that or they could be in for a second straight one-and-done postseason.

But back to the issue to shutting down San Diego’s run game. It really was the killer in Denver’s loss to San Diego. The Chargers only scored one rushing touchdown. But it kept Denver’s defense on the field and Peyton Manning’s offense off it. San Diego’s time of possession was nearly 39 minutes in that game.

The Broncos’ defense has to get off the field if they want to win this game. If the time of possession hadn’t been so lopsided, the Chargers may not have held Denver to less than 30 points, and they may not have even scored the 27 points they did.

I will make my official prediction for this and the other three games in tomorrow’s blog post.

Wild Card Afterword: Bengals vs Chargers

Philip Rivers only threw 16 passes in Sunday's wild card win in Cincy,
but he completed 12 of them for 128 yards, a touchdown and a 118.8 rating.

Cory Puffett

Cincinnati lived up to their second-quarter hype. They outscored opponents 62-0 in the second quarter of their final four home games of the regular season. Then they outscored San Diego 10-0 in that quarter of their wild card game.

Unfortunately, nothing went right for the Bengals outside of those 15 minutes. After a very successful regular season, especially at Paul Brown Stadium, Andy Dalton threw his first postseason touchdown of his career. But he backed that up with two second-half interceptions, the fifth and sixth of his playoff career.

Dalton isn’t the only player at fault, though. The tide of the game certainly changed after Giovani Bernard fumbled in the red zone in the second quarter. The Bengals still added a field goal on their next drive to take a 10-7 lead into halftime, but the damage could have been much worse.

Dalton also fumbled in the third quarter, so in some ways it does come back to the third-year quarterback out of TCU.

But don’t forget to give San Diego a lot of credit. Their offense did a great job all game long. Ronnie Brown led the backs with 77 yards and a touchdown on eight carries, including a 58-yard run at the end of the game to put the nail in Cincy’s coffin.

Combined with Woodhead and Mathews, the three Chargers running backs had a total of 183 yards and two touchdowns on 36 carries. They tore up the third-best run defense in this year’s playoffs, behind only Carolina and San Francisco.

Now San Diego will meet with the Denver Broncos for the third time this season. They split the regular season series but won when they played in Denver, where they will play next Sunday.

And before I sign off, I have to acknowledge the superb job John Pagano’s defense did against one of the best home offenses. They held Cincy to their second-lowest point total of the season and lowest at home. Only the Patriots were also able to keep the Bengals under 20 points in Cincinnati this year.

Final Score:

San Diego Chargers – 27

Cincinnati Bengals – 10

2014 Wild Card Preview: Bengals vs Chargers

Cory Puffett

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

January 5 – 1:05pm (CBS)

Andy Dalton hopes the third time’s the charm. He led his Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons but will look to get the playoff monkey off his back on Sunday. His Bengals fell to Houston in the 2012 and 2013 playoffs.

Cincinnati is unbeaten at home this year. And is it any wonder? They average 34 points/game at Paul Brown Stadium compared to just 19 per game on the road. Their defense also plays better at home, though it only translates to a difference of about five points per game for their opponents.

San Diego has had an up-and-down season. Their offense has played well most of the year. Philip Rivers is certainly one of my leading candidates for most improved player after the way he struggled the previous two seasons. Ryan Mathews is another candidate. He’s suffered from fumblitis most of his career but was a focal point for the Chargers offense during their late-season run.

To make the playoffs, San Diego had to win five of their last six games after a three-game losing streak coming out of their bye. And they didn’t just beat a bunch of slouches either. They had to win in Kansas City and in Denver, and then they had to beat the Chiefs again last week at home.

Now, Kansas City did rest all but two of their starters, but those backups were hungry and you still have to credit San Diego for fighting them off, even if a couple officiating errors may have influenced the outcome of that game.

But that one late-season loss came at home against Cincinnati. And now they have to play the Bengals on the road, in front of a crowd that hasn’t seen its team lose in person in almost 13 months.

Cincinnati has improved each of the past three seasons. In 2011 they went 9-7, finished third in the AFC North, and then lost by 21 to Houston in their Wild Card game. Last year they went 10-6, finished second in the division and lost by just six, again to Houston, in the Wild Card round.

Now Dalton and the Bengals have an 11-5 record and AFC North title under their belts, and a chance to win their first playoff game since a 41-14 romp against the Houston Oilers in January 1991.

But look out for Philip Rivers. He’s been known to spoil the postseason for other promising teams. He did it to Peyton Manning’s Colts twice. Now, he does only have one road win to his credit in the postseason, but remember that those were the Norv Turner Chargers. And before that, Rivers lost both playoff games under Marty Schottenheimer. With Mike McCoy, Rivers plans to change his fortunes.

Cincinnati has to be the favorite to win this matchup, but I’m not ready to count out the Bolts. I will make my official pick on tomorrow’s Football Freaks Wild Card prediction podcast.

Puff’s Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.