2012 Week 17 Preview: Redskins vs Cowboys

The Cowboys/Redskins rivalry began before Dallas even got
the expansion team and is one of the best in the NFL.
Photo credit to Dallas Observer Blogs.

The Redskins’ playoff hopes hang in the balance, but not as much as the Dallas Cowboys, at least not currently – by game time, they may be on equal ground.

The Cowboys will win the NFC East with a victory. A loss knocks them out of the playoffs.

Likewise, the NFC East goes to Washington with a win, but they will need Minnesota and Chicago to both lose their matchups in order to get in with a loss to Dallas.

This is the first time Washington and Dallas will meet for a Week 17 matchup in which the winner clinches the division title, but they are no strangers to meeting in intense circumstances.

The Redskins/Cowboys rivalry is one of the most intense in all of sports. Some even go so far as to say it is the most intense in the NFL. They have met twice in the NFC Championship Game, and the Redskins won both meetings, going on to lose to the ’72 Dolphins and beat the ’82 Dolphins in those Super Bowl appearances.

NFL.com counted down the Top 10 games in their rivalry. Both NFC Championship meetings made the list, and you can see the other eight games here.

But those games are history. All that matters now is tomorrow’s game and the matchups within it.

Washington’s secondary has overachieved the past few weeks, but in the Thanksgiving matchup, Dez Bryant torched the Redskins with 8 catches for 145 yards and two scores. His thumb isn’t 100% but I expect him to be a major part of Dallas’ game plan Sunday.

On the Cowboys’ side, their defense has had to patch up a lot of holes with half of their defensive starters missing the past several games. So far they’ve done a good job of doing so, and their performance against New Orleans, up until the final few minutes, is why I give them a chance to shut down a Washington passing attack in which RG3 may or may not be at full strength.

The problem is that Washington also has an excellent run game – tops in the league, or near the top at least. If RG3 is healthy, that adds a lot to it, but Alfred Morris seemed to do all right for himself last week despite Philadelphia’s linebackers not having to worry about which rookie would be carrying the ball on any given play.

Washington’s offensive line has been one of the best in the NFL, for the first time in decades. Usually, that would not be enough for me to give them the edge over Dallas’ defensive line, mostly because of DeMarcus Ware. But Ware has been battling injury all season. He has still put up impressive numbers, but he has not been quite as intimidating a force as in past seasons.

I give Washington the edge in this one, but I expect it to go down the wire, which is the way it should be for a game like this between these two teams. This one ought to have Redskins and Cowboys fan alike on the edge of their seats until the clock reads 0:00. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Puff’s Pick: Washington Redskins over Dallas Cowboys

2012 Week 17 Preview: Vikings vs Packers

Brett Favre's time in Minnesota ignited a lot of dislike for the
Vikings in Packers Nation. Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

This is the only game this weekend, other than the Redskins/Cowboys game (which I will preview tomorrow), that features a team in a win-and-in situation.

The Minnesota Vikings are at home for a 4:25 p.m. kickoff against the Green Bay Packers in a game that will seal their playoff fate. If the Vikings lose, it would take a miracle and a half to get them in the playoffs. A win clinches them a spot and knocks Chicago, New York, and the loser of the Skins/Cowboys game out of the playoff picture.

Adrian Peterson has been phenomenal all season. A week ago, I predicted that he would not break the all-time single-season rushing record because he had to play Houston and Green Bay. He didn’t top 100 yards against Houston, and it looks like I may have been right about him not breaking the record. But he is still my top choice for MVP if the Vikings get into the playoffs.

Side note: AP is still my top choice if the Vikings miss the playoffs, but the NFL rarely, if ever, awards the MVP to a player on a team that misses the playoffs.

Despite Peterson only gaining 86 yards, the Minnesota defense did pretty well for itself, holding the Texans to just six points in Reliant Stadium. Christian Ponder has yet to top 200 passing yards in a game since the team’s Week 11 bye – he had six such games in the first ten weeks of the season.

On Green Bay’s side, they have had three different leading rushers in the past four weeks and Aaron Rodgers has had only one game since their Week 10 bye in which he didn’t pass for at least 200 yards. He also only had one sub-200 game in the first nine weeks.

The Vikings are on a 3-game winning streak, also beating the Bears and Rams in the past three weeks. Green Bay’s winning streak is slightly longer at four games, but it includes a 23-14 Week 13 win over Minnesota and they are coming off a 55-7 romp at home against Tennessee last Sunday.

Remember what I said about how much Minnesota is playing for on Sunday? Well, don’t expect Green Bay to just let them in. Green Bay can lock up a first-round bye with a win over their NFC North rival.

The biggest question for me is how set Minnesota is on getting the rushing record for Adrian Peterson. He needs 209 yards to break the record. He gained 210 in that earlier loss to Green Bay. Christian Ponder said earlier this week that he’s sure AP is more concerned with getting the win, which I’m sure is mostly true. But Peterson did say a day or two ago that he still plans on breaking that record.

Ultimately, I just don’t think there is much the Vikings can do to slow down a markedly better Packers team that isn’t resting anyone and has really gotten things rolling after a 38-10 loss to New York in Week 12, their only one since that Week 5 loss in Indianapolis.

Puff’s Pick: Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings

2012 Week 17 Preview: Bengals vs Ravens

The Bengals look to avenge their Week 1 loss while
the Ravens hope to move up in the AFC playoff seeding.
Photo credit to WhoDeyFans.

The AFC playoffs are set as far as who is in and who is out. The Bengals are in. The Ravens are in. The Bengals are locked into the 6^th seed and the Ravens are very unlikely to move up from their #4 seed.

After a four-game win streak after their bye week, Baltimore lost three straight – to Pittsburgh, Washington and Denver – and then handily beat the New York Giants at home last Sunday, 34-17.

Looking at the teams they’ve played this season, a big thing stands out to me. They have struggled against teams with solid rushing attacks. They’ve beaten a few of them, but not without trouble. Though Ray Lewis has been taken off IR, he will not play this week and so they’ll be another week before I trust them to stop a back like BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Cincinnati has come a long way since that Week 1 Monday night loss to Baltimore in which I jumped the gun and said Joe Flacco was a top-tier quarterback with the way he ran the hurry-up offense. The 44-13 final score is no doubt something that will drive the Bengals through practices this week.

Even though they aren’t playing for playoff positioning, they are playing for pride, and Marvin Lewis made it clear this week that he wants Cincinnati to be mentioned in the same breath with Baltimore and Pittsburgh when we look at AFC North teams. He knows the way to do that is to back up last week’s win over the Steelers with a win this week against the Ravens.

If you listened to The All-Sports Crew on WMUC Sports last night, or if you checked my predictions post I put up yesterday evening, you know I picked the Bengals to win this game. I think Cincinnati is a more complete team right now.

Andy Dalton has struggled at times, but he has really stepped up in crunch time this season. He has a running back in BenJarvus Green-Ellis who only had one particularly good year in four with New England but has found a home, and his mojo, in Cincinnati. Perhaps only slightly more importantly, Dalton has a terrific receiver in A.J. Green who is young, incredibly athletic and talented, and is already drawing comparisons to Calvin Johnson, which I tend to have trouble arguing against.

On defense, Cincinnati is 8^th in points allowed per game (slightly better than Baltimore) and 6^th in yards allowed per game (much better than Baltimore’s ranking of 20^th). Additionally, Cincinnati is one of the least penalized teams on defense in the NFL. Geno Atkins has been terrific all year, and his efforts have been rewarded with a Pro Bowl bid. Leon Hall and Terrence Newman have been great on the corners, and they have a great linebacker corps.

To top that all off, Cincinnati is at home. If Baltimore is going to win this game, Joe Flacco is going to need to kill his ego and let them center the game plan on Ray Rice.

Puff’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens