Wild-Card Afterword: Packers vs Vikings

The Vikings send John Kuhn spinning through the air on his
second touchdown of the night, this one a 9-yard reception.
Photo credit to The Boston Globe.

I said in my preview that the Vikings’ playoff destiny rested more on Christian Ponder than on Adrian Peterson. Ponder did not play because of limited range-of-motion resulting from an elbow injury sustained last week. However, it was backup quarterback Joe Webb who influenced this game more than anything else.

On the first drive of the game, Webb and Peterson ran for over 20 yards each. But on the last play, Webb dropped back looking for a lane to run through rather than a receiver to throw to and delivered a poor, off-balance pass that forced Minnesota to settle for a field goal.

The Vikings’ defense stopped Green Bay on the next drive, but their offense could not take advantage, so Aaron Rodgers did. Late in the second quarter, with a 10-3 lead in tow, the Packers got the ball on their own 38-yard line with less than two minutes in the half. Consecutive completions by Rodgers of 22, 26, and 23 yards set up John Kuhn for a 3-yard touchdown run. Suddenly, a game that had a close feel through most of the half seemed to be getting out of hand at halftime.

Each team would add a touchdown in the second half, but it was clear that Joe Webb was not a passing threat. He did throw a 50-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins in the fourth quarter, but he was left wide open and the pass was not particularly good. Jenkins walked up the sideline for that score.

Because of the lack of a passing game, the Packers were able to key in on the run and contained Adrian Peterson. Usually, giving up 99 rushing yards to a running back isn’t something to hang your hat on, but with Adrian Peterson that was a huge accomplishment. The Packers have only allowed two running backs all year to top 100 yards against them – Adrian Peterson twice and Frank Gore back in Week 1.

The 24-10 victory sends Green Bay to San Francisco for the divisional round and a rematch of that Week 1 loss, which was contested at Lambeau. The 49ers are very different than they were then, with Colin Kaepernick their starter rather than Alex Smith.

The Vikings’ season ends with a disappointing loss, but overall it has to feel like a successful year for Minnesota. Most analysts, myself included, picked them to finish in the basement of a tough NFC North. Adrian Peterson came back stronger than expected and the Vikings had a terrific season overall. I only wish we could have seen how the game would play out Saturday night if Christian Ponder had been able to play.

Wild-Card Preview: Packers vs Vikings

Game 2:

Saturday, January 5, 2013

8:00pm – NBC

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Christian Ponder struggled at Lambeau in Week 13,
and I don't expect much to change Saturday.
Photo credit to the Star Tribune.

In Week 17, I picked the Packers to beat the Vikings and got burned on my pick. I’m at it again this week.

Adrian Peterson ran for 199 yard in Minnesota’s Week 17 win at home against Green Bay and for 210 yards in a Week 13 losing effort on the Packers’ home turf, where Saturday’s game will be held. Adrian Peterson will not be the difference this time around, just like he wasn’t in either of the last two games.

How far this team goes rests on Christian Ponder. Peterson will run for a lot of yards, as he always does, and I don’t expect Green Bay to slow him down any more than they did in their two previous meetings. But the difference in the two games was Ponder.

In their Week 13 meeting in Green Bay, where they will play this Saturday, Ponder completed less than 50% of his passes, had one touchdown pass and threw two interceptions. Peterson had his 210 yards on 21 carries and a score of his own. But Green Bay came out on top, 23-14.

Last week couldn’t have been much more different for Minnesota. Peterson ran for 199 yards on 34 attempts and had one touchdown run, no better than in the first game. But Christian threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions.

When Ponder does not throw an interception, the Vikings are 7-1. When he doesn’t turn the ball over at all, they are 5-0. But he does turn the ball over, and he hasn’t had back-to-back games in which he hasn’t turned the ball over since wins over San Francisco and Detroit in Weeks 3 and 4.

The thing that bothers me the most about the Vikings is their track record on the road this year. They are 7-1 at home vs 3-5 as a visiting team. Their defense gives up roughly the same number of points regardless of the venue, but they score five fewer points as a visiting team.

This is the sort of opponent that Aaron Rodgers can eat alive. It won’t help that they are calling for light snow in Green Bay on Saturday. If nothing else, the high is supposed to be in the single-digits, and will be much colder by 8 p.m.

The Packers know Peterson will get yards, but on defense they will simply contain him. They will let him get the yards, but force them to go to Ponder when they get close to scoring. They did this effectively in both of the past two games. In Week 13, in Green Bay, it worked in their favor. Ponder came through last week, but I don’t trust him to play that well in consecutive games.

Puff’s Pick:

Minnesota Vikings – 17

Green Bay Packers – 31

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

2012 Week 17 Preview: Vikings vs Packers

Brett Favre's time in Minnesota ignited a lot of dislike for the
Vikings in Packers Nation. Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

This is the only game this weekend, other than the Redskins/Cowboys game (which I will preview tomorrow), that features a team in a win-and-in situation.

The Minnesota Vikings are at home for a 4:25 p.m. kickoff against the Green Bay Packers in a game that will seal their playoff fate. If the Vikings lose, it would take a miracle and a half to get them in the playoffs. A win clinches them a spot and knocks Chicago, New York, and the loser of the Skins/Cowboys game out of the playoff picture.

Adrian Peterson has been phenomenal all season. A week ago, I predicted that he would not break the all-time single-season rushing record because he had to play Houston and Green Bay. He didn’t top 100 yards against Houston, and it looks like I may have been right about him not breaking the record. But he is still my top choice for MVP if the Vikings get into the playoffs.

Side note: AP is still my top choice if the Vikings miss the playoffs, but the NFL rarely, if ever, awards the MVP to a player on a team that misses the playoffs.

Despite Peterson only gaining 86 yards, the Minnesota defense did pretty well for itself, holding the Texans to just six points in Reliant Stadium. Christian Ponder has yet to top 200 passing yards in a game since the team’s Week 11 bye – he had six such games in the first ten weeks of the season.

On Green Bay’s side, they have had three different leading rushers in the past four weeks and Aaron Rodgers has had only one game since their Week 10 bye in which he didn’t pass for at least 200 yards. He also only had one sub-200 game in the first nine weeks.

The Vikings are on a 3-game winning streak, also beating the Bears and Rams in the past three weeks. Green Bay’s winning streak is slightly longer at four games, but it includes a 23-14 Week 13 win over Minnesota and they are coming off a 55-7 romp at home against Tennessee last Sunday.

Remember what I said about how much Minnesota is playing for on Sunday? Well, don’t expect Green Bay to just let them in. Green Bay can lock up a first-round bye with a win over their NFC North rival.

The biggest question for me is how set Minnesota is on getting the rushing record for Adrian Peterson. He needs 209 yards to break the record. He gained 210 in that earlier loss to Green Bay. Christian Ponder said earlier this week that he’s sure AP is more concerned with getting the win, which I’m sure is mostly true. But Peterson did say a day or two ago that he still plans on breaking that record.

Ultimately, I just don’t think there is much the Vikings can do to slow down a markedly better Packers team that isn’t resting anyone and has really gotten things rolling after a 38-10 loss to New York in Week 12, their only one since that Week 5 loss in Indianapolis.

Puff’s Pick: Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 16 Early Games

Jimmy Graham overshot a fumble near the goal line in
overtime, but turns his body to cover it up.
Photo credit to The Times-Picayune.

Merry Christmas Eve, everyone! We had 15 games yesterday, so I’m going to get right into the 11 early ones, and I’ll try to keep everything short and sweet.

Cam Newton’s attitude issues apparently don’t only come out during losses. He got into it with a ref during yesterday’s 17-6 win against Oakland. He apologized after the game, but this is the kind of thing he’s got to clean up if he wants to have a long, successful career.

Green Bay thrashed the Titans, 55-7. There really isn’t much more to say about it other than that it is scary how many teams there are who can put up 50+ points right now.

Minnesota surprised Houston as Christian Ponder had a decent game throwing the ball and ran for more than half the yards Adrian Peterson did. AP got just 86 yards and is still over 200-yards away from the single-season rushing record, and the Vikings have to play the Packers, who will be playing to keep the #2 seed in the NFC.

Tom Brady played awful early and at one point was 9/18 with no scores and 2 interceptions, letting Jacksonville lead early. He cleaned it up after that, though it was surprising not to see the Patriots run away with is like they usual do after poor starts to games. Brady finished with two touchdown passes in New England’s 23-16 win in Jacksonville.

The Colts looked good early against another terrible team, but let Kansas City back in it during the third quarter. Andrew Luck got his only touchdown pass of the game in the fourth quarter, for the go-ahead score that ultimately was the final score of the game. Luck also broke Cam Newton’s rookie single-season passing yards record in the game.

Miami handled Buffalo with little difficulty, 24-10. The Jets stayed close but fell 27-17 to the Chargers. And St. Louis took care of business against the Buccaneers, who were squarely in the playoff race a few weeks ago. The final score in that one was 28-13.

Dallas took advantage of a poor New Orleans defensive effort, but Drew Brees came to life late in the game to lead the Saints to a 14-point comeback to send the game into overtime, where they finally got a defensive stop and then drove the ball downfield for a game-winning field goal.

Washington, meanwhile, won their game in Philadelphia, 27-20. But it doesn’t mean all that much because next weeks matchup with Dallas, which has been flexed to Sunday Night Football, will decide the winner of the NFC East. If Dallas looses, they’re out. If Washington loses, they are almost definitely out, and we’ll know for sure by the time the game starts. These are two of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and I’m sure this game will remind many people of past days when this was a common division-deciding matchup to see late in the season.

The final game of the early afternoon was in Pittsburgh, where Cincinnati knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs and knocked themselves in. All six AFC playoff spots are decided, the only thing left to determine is seeding, so there won’t be too much resting of starters next week because there is still plenty to play for.

Check back later for my Sunday Football Afterword for the four late games. Thanks for reading everyone!

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 3 Early Games

Christian Ponder threw two touchdowns and ran for another
as he led his Vikings to a huge upset over San Francisco.

The Redskins hosted the Bengals in their home opener yesterday, so of course a lot of my attention was focused on that game. There was, however, too much madness going around the league to ignore it all completely.

As those of you who paid close attention know, I only correctly predicted two of the nine 1:00 games played on Sunday. I correctly predicted the Redskins game and the Bills game. The other seven didn’t go so well.

The Redskins went down early as the Bengals kicked the game off with a long touchdown pass, and it wasn’t Andy Dalton who threw it; he was lined up as a receiver. Instead, the opening score was a 73-yard pass from Mohamad Sanu to A.J. Green. The Redskins tied it when Rob Jackson picked off Dalton in the end zone for a touchdown (yes, you read that correctly, nothing I can ever remember seeing before in my life).

The Bengals then scored 17 unanswered points, after which the Redskins returned the favor to tie the game at 24 in the third quarter. When Dalton threw touchdown passes on the next two Cincinnati drives, the lead was just too much for RGIII and the Redskins to come back from. Instead the Bengals won their second game of the season and they are in a tie for first in the AFC North while the Redskins are all alone in the cellar of the NFC East.

Bradford wasn’t terrible, but Danny Amendola didn’t come close to the success he had against the Redskins a week ago and the Rams were not able to make much of a game out of their contest in Chicago. Cutler was a little better than last week against Green Bay, but the key was a huge defensive effort from the Bears. That carried them to a 23-6 victory.

C.J. Spiller went down in the first quarter of the Bills game in Cleveland. He already had 58 total yards and a score when he left. Right now the report is that he should miss only a couple weeks and that he avoided anything to severe. Ryan Fitzpatrick finally had a good game after struggling much of last season. He threw three touchdown passes in the game. With the 24-14 loss, the Browns are now on a nine-game losing streak dating back to last season.

I really thought the Buccaneers had a legitimate shot at beating Dallas, and they did. But apparently Tampa Bay plays their hardest when the other team is in the victory formation. It’s like running a six-mile race but only running hard the last quarter mile. It isn’t going to win you games.

I am having a difficult time explaining what happened to the Colts. They led 14-3 at halftime; Andrew Luck was playing very well (both 1^st half touchdowns came from him). But their defense is clearly still suspect, and Jacksonville shut down the Indy offense in the second half. The Jaguars outscored the Colts 19-3 in the second half for a 22-17 victory. The winning score came on an 80-yard touchdown pass from Gabbert to Cecil Shorts III with less than a minute left to play.

In a bizarre finish, the Jets beat the Dolphins in overtime. Last year it took the first installment of Tebow Time for the Broncos to beat the Dolphins; this year all it took for Tebow’s new team was Joe Philbin. With a few minutes left in overtime, Nick Folk lined up for a field goal to win the game. Philbin called a timeout just before the snap, but the Dolphins blocked the field goal. The attempt to ice Folk backfired and he knocked the next one in to win the game.

The shocker of the week in a Sunday full of them was the Minnesota Vikings. Christian Ponder had a fantastic game. I think most of us knew he’s a talented young passer, but to lead this team to a victory over the 49ers seemed too much to ask. After the 24-13 victory, apparently it wasn’t. Nobody gave Minnesota much chance, considering they lost to Indianapolis last week and the 49ers had already beaten two much more formidable NFC North teams in Green Bay and Detroit.

In another wild finish, Kansas City kept their matchup against New Orleans close through the first half. In the third quarter it looked like the Saints were finally pulling away until a 91-yard touchdown run by Jamaal Charles. The fourth quarter saw four scored, all by the Chiefs, to tie the game up and send it to overtime where a 31-yard field goal by Ryan Succop, his sixth field goal of the game, won it and sent the Saints to 0-3.

The third overtime of the day came in Tennessee where a rehash of the Music City Miracle gave the Titans a 10-6 lead in the first quarter. Jake Locker completed 29 passes for 378 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. Chris Johnson still looks like he’s sleepwalking, but the Titans overcame it for their first win of the season. Tennessee scored five times on plays of over 60 yards, an NFL record! They had a punt return TD, a kick return TD, a fumble return TD, and two passing TDs from Locker, all over 60 yards. And it still went to overtime despite Matthew Stafford going down with an injury and Shaun Hill, the Maryland grad, taking over. The final was 44-41.

Be sure to check in later when my afterword on yesterday’s later games is published, and of course keep an eye on the status of this week’s The All-Sports Crew show where we will talk more about Week 3.